节前蓄势，节后可期 [Table_Authors] 刘玉(分析师) REIT 策略周报 本报告导读： 建议把握市场震荡过程中的配置机会，静待下一轮行情催化。 投资要点： 债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.23 | | 021-38038263 | | --- | --- | | | liuyu6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | | 汤志宇(分析师) | | | 021-38031036 | | | tangzhiyu@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525070031 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 春节期间需关注的几件事 ——海外篇 2026.02.22 M2-社融、存贷款双背离，银行间资金宽松的长 期逻辑 2026.02.22 节后第一周地方债发行金额 2564 亿元，2 月实际 发行将超万亿 2026.02.22 震荡市宜因子动态均衡 2026.02.21 持 ETF 过春节，短信用债 ETF 获大量申购 2026.02.16 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 债 券 研 究 | 1. ...

Core Insights - The primary focus of High Dividend Opportunities is to provide high-yield investments that can replace the income lost upon retirement, aiming for a yield of 8 to 10% to ensure consistent cash flow for living expenses without the need to sell shares [4][7][18]. Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of cash flow, with a portfolio designed to yield 8 to 10% annually, allowing for reinvestment and withdrawals to maintain income levels [7][20]. - The company has shifted focus towards fixed income opportunities, particularly preferred equities and bonds, as interest rates have risen, making these investments more attractive [21][24]. - A diversified portfolio is maintained, with no more than 2 to 3% allocated to any single investment to mitigate risks associated with dividend cuts [17][58]. Market Context - The current market environment has seen a rotation towards value investments, with a focus on tangible assets such as real estate and energy, which are expected to benefit from lower interest rates in the future [43][46][48]. - The company has observed that many dividend-paying stocks have seen price declines due to rising interest rates, but the focus remains on the cash flow generated by these investments rather than short-term price fluctuations [76][79]. Portfolio Composition - The portfolio is divided into four parts: two equity-focused (core one with closed-end funds and core two with individual high cash flow stocks) and two fixed income-focused (maturity ladder and preferred equity) [29][32][34]. - Closed-end funds (CEFs) are favored over ETFs due to their ability to trade at discounts during market downturns, providing opportunities for higher total returns [35][39]. Risk Management - The company emphasizes the importance of understanding the sustainability of dividends, particularly in sectors like REITs, where income can be variable due to regulatory requirements [26][27]. - Recent experiences with unexpected dividend cuts, such as Oxford Lane Capital's 50% reduction, highlight the need for ongoing assessment of company strategies and cash flow sustainability [60][62]. Educational Focus - High Dividend Opportunities places a strong emphasis on educating investors about the rationale behind investment choices and the importance of tracking cash flow, rather than solely focusing on share price [49][104]. - The company aims to empower investors to construct their own plans and understand the dynamics of dividend investing, fostering a community for ongoing discussion and support [69][106].

Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology firms such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

REIT Performance REITs kicked off 2025 with a solid +1.09% average total return in January. The REIT sector’s January performance was largely in line with the broader market. REITs outperformed the NASDAQ (+1.0%), but fell short of the S&P 500 (+1.4%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.8%). The market cap-weighted Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund ETF (VNQ) outpaced the average REIT in January (+2.61% vs. +1.09%). The spread between the 2026 FFO multiples of large-cap REITs (16.4x) and small-cap REITs (12.8 ...

Group 1 - The analyst has over a decade of experience researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology firms such as Google and Nokia [1] - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The analyst expresses a particular interest in covering metals and mining stocks, while also being comfortable with other industries like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - REITs are regaining favor as a safe haven investment, showing a year-to-date increase of 6.9% compared to a broader market decline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The turning point for market sentiment occurred in early February, coinciding with a reversal of previously hot trades and a focus on significant capital expenditure (capex) by hyperscalers during earnings season [3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon experienced declines of 5%, 10%, and 18% respectively, contributing to a 4% drop in the Nasdaq and a 2% drop in the S&P in the first two weeks of February [7][8] - Traditional safe havens, including gold and silver, have not performed well, leading investors to consider REITs as a more reliable option [9][11] Group 2: REITs' Fundamental Strength - REITs have demonstrated strong fundamental performance over the past five years, with metrics such as FFO (Funds From Operations) growth and improved margins [13][16] - The median REIT trades at 13.8X FFO, significantly lower than the S&P's 29.3X trailing earnings, indicating a divergence in valuation [21] - REITs currently offer an FFO yield of 7.24%, compared to the S&P's earnings yield of 3.4%, allowing for larger dividend payouts [24] Group 3: Cash Flow Reliability - REITs benefit from contractual revenue streams that can extend up to 30 years, providing visibility into future cash flows and supporting consistent dividend growth [17][19] - A forecast indicates that 36 REITs are expected to increase their dividends in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting their reliable cash flow structure [17] Group 4: Direct Benefits from Tech Capex - Many REITs are positioned to benefit directly from the trillions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure, with companies like Equinix reporting accelerating growth in AFFO per share due to increased demand for data centers [29] - The demand for infrastructure related to AI is driving significant growth opportunities for REITs, contrasting with the challenges faced by hyperscalers [29] Group 5: Market Correction and Future Outlook - The current market correction is seen as a recalibration of previously inflated tech valuations, with capital shifting towards undervalued sectors like REITs [32][33] - The outperformance of REITs in 2026 is viewed as just the beginning, with expectations for further normalization of relative value as the market adjusts [33]

Core Viewpoint - SL Green Realty's stock has experienced significant declines, dropping over 35% in the past year and nearly 40% over the last five years, primarily due to high interest rates and weak demand for office space since the pandemic [1] Group 1: Interest Rates Impact - Higher interest rates have negatively affected commercial real estate investments, increasing interest expenses and reducing cash flows available for distribution to investors [2] - The Federal Reserve has been lowering the Federal Funds Rate, which has not significantly impacted long-term rates like the 10-year Treasury, remaining high due to inflation and federal deficits [3] - A potential decrease in the 10-year Treasury rate, if inflation falls to the Federal Reserve's target of around 2%, could enhance the value of commercial real estate and SL Green's share price [3] Group 2: Office Market Dynamics - The office market has faced challenges with rising vacancies and stagnant rental rates due to companies' hesitance to commit to long-term office space amid uncertain space needs [4] - Recent data from JLL indicates a resurgence in the office sector, with leasing activity in Q4 reaching a post-pandemic high and annual leasing growing by 5.2% year-over-year [5] - Large-scale transactions in the office market surged by 15%, and office sales volume has increased for seven consecutive quarters, growing by 35% last year, suggesting a potential new growth cycle for the office market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - This week, the REITs market recovered, with the China Securities REITs Index rising 0.3% week - on - week. Data center, consumption, and energy REITs led the gains. The week - on - week change rankings of major indexes were: China Securities Convertible Bonds > CSI 300 > China Securities REITs > China Securities All - Bond [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 65BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 318BP [1]. - Commercial real - estate public REITs were intensively declared. Cathay Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real - Estate Public REIT and CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT were officially declared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, further enriching the supply of commercial real - estate REITs [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of the China Securities REITs (Closing) Index was 804.77 points, with a week - on - week change of 0.3% (from February 9 to February 13, 2026). Its performance was weaker than that of the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index (+1.1%) and the CSI 300 Index (0.4%), and stronger than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index (0.1%). Year - to - date, the change rankings of major indexes were: China Securities Convertible Bonds (+7.0%) > China Securities REITs (+3.4%) > China Securities All - Bond (+0.7%) > CSI 300 (+0.7%) [2][6]. - In the past year, the return of the China Securities REITs Index was - 6.2%, and the volatility was 7.1%. The return was lower than that of the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the China Securities All - Bond Index; the volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the China Securities Convertible Bonds Index, and higher than that of the China Securities All - Bond Index. The total market value of REITs on February 13 was 228.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 200 million yuan from the previous week; the average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.33%, a decrease of 0.14 percentage points from the previous week [2][8]. Performance of Different REITs Types - From the perspective of different project attributes, the average week - on - week changes of equity - type REITs and concession - based REITs were 0.7% and 0.3% respectively. From the perspective of different project types, the performance of each sector was differentiated, with data center, consumption, and energy REITs having the largest increases. The top three REITs in terms of weekly gains were ICBC Inner Mongolia Energy Clean Energy REIT (+3.47%), BOC Sino - Foreign Warehousing and Logistics REIT (+3.11%), and Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT (+3.00%) [3][11][14]. - In terms of different project types, data center REITs had the highest daily turnover rate this week, at 0.8%; transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest trading volume share this week, accounting for 21.2% of the total REITs trading volume. In terms of the capital flow of different REITs products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were China Resources Commercial REIT of Huaxia Fund (41.47 million yuan), Southern Vanda Data Center REIT (32.04 million yuan), and CICC InCity Mall REIT (30.02 million yuan) [3][18][19]. Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to February 13, 2026, there were 3 REITs products in the inquiry stage, 5 in the feedback stage, and 10 in the declaration stage on the exchange, and 12 commercial real - estate REITs were officially declared [21]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and stock characteristics. As of January 23, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public REITs was 6.3%. From the perspective of stock characteristics, the valuation of REITs was judged through relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO. As of February 13, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 65BP lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend - paying Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - based REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 318BP [22][24]. Industry News - On February 9, Cathay Haitong Chongbang Commercial Real - Estate Public REIT was officially declared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the 11th commercial real - estate public REIT and the 10th declared project on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. On February 11, CITIC Construction First Agricultural Food Group Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate REIT was officially declared to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, becoming the 12th commercial real - estate public REIT and the 11th declared project on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [4][31]. - On February 13, Runze Technology announced that the Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT planned to start the issuance of additional shares. The company and its wholly - owned subsidiary Runze Development would use the A - 7 and A - 8 data centers and related ancillary facilities of the International Information Cloud Aggregation Core Port (ICFZ) project as the underlying assets for the issuance [4][31].

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SPHD) has seen a significant increase in interest from retirees following a 23.3% hike in annual dividends, reflecting a shift towards defensive investment strategies amid market volatility [1]. Group 1: SPHD Performance and Dividend Increase - SPHD has gained 8.93% year to date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 1.5% return [1]. - The fund's annual dividends increased to $2.0173 in 2025, marking a 23.3% rise from 2024 due to higher payouts and strategic rebalancing [1]. - Competing dividend ETFs, such as Schwab ETF (SCHD) and Vanguard ETF (VYM), have outperformed SPHD with returns of 17.5% and 20.05% respectively over the past year [1]. Group 2: Interest Rate Impact - The direction of interest rates poses a significant risk for SPHD, with current yields making its 4.69% yield more competitive against risk-free alternatives [1]. - The fund's heavy concentration in rate-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities means profitability is directly affected by changes in borrowing costs [1]. - Monitoring Federal Reserve policy and Consumer Price Index releases is crucial to gauge future interest rate movements that could impact SPHD [1]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - SPHD's methodology excludes most technology stocks, leading to a lack of growth exposure and persistent performance drag during bull markets [1]. - The top holdings include mature companies like Pfizer, UPS, and Altria, which have limited growth prospects [1]. - The performance gap between SPHD and competing dividend ETFs is attributed to SPHD's strict low-volatility screen, which limits access to higher-growth dividend payers [1].

Core Insights - The analyst has over a decade of experience in researching various industries, including commodities like oil, natural gas, gold, and copper, as well as technology companies such as Google and Nokia, and emerging market stocks [1] Group 1: Company Focus - The analyst has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where extensive research on hundreds of companies has been conducted [1] - The preferred focus of the analyst includes metals and mining stocks, but there is also comfort in analyzing other sectors such as consumer discretionary, consumer staples, REITs, and utilities [1]