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Top 10 Quant Stocks 2025 Review: Steve Cress on 45% Returns, AI Winners & GARP Strategy
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-15 15:06
Core Insights - The discussion focuses on the performance of the Top 10 stocks for 2025, highlighting the effectiveness of a quantitative (Quant) investment strategy that combines fundamental analysis with algorithmic processing to identify strong investment opportunities. Group 1: Quantitative Investment Strategy - The Quant system utilizes mathematical algorithms to identify investment opportunities, reflecting the work of traditional fundamental analysts while covering a broader range of stocks [10][12]. - The GARP (Growth At a Reasonable Price) strategy is emphasized, focusing on companies that exhibit strong value, profitability, growth, momentum, and analyst EPS revisions [10][11]. - The Quant system has shown significant performance, with a five-year return of 228% compared to Wall Street Strong Buys at 32% and the S&P 500 at 65% [14]. Group 2: Market Recap and Sentiment Analysis - The year 2025 has been characterized by volatility, with the CNN Fear & Greed Index showing sharp movements between extreme greed and fear, influenced by trade policy changes, labor data, and economic uncertainties [16][18]. - Key catalysts affecting market sentiment include U.S.-China trade disputes, conflicting labor data, a credit downgrade, and concerns over tech valuations and the AI bubble [17][18]. - The market has seen a rotation towards safe-haven assets like gold and consumer staples during periods of fear, while technology and cryptocurrency sectors have experienced risk-on sentiment [20][21]. Group 3: Performance of Top Stocks - The Top 10 stocks for 2025 have collectively outperformed the S&P 500, with an average return of 45.68% since January 9, compared to the S&P's 17.6% [43]. - Notable performers include Credo Technology, up 116%, and Celestica, up 240%, both benefiting from strong demand in AI-related sectors [55][60]. - The performance of stocks can fluctuate significantly due to market sentiment, with strong fundamentals often overlooked during periods of fear, leading to substantial upside potential when sentiment shifts back to fundamentals [44][46]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Economic data has been mixed, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times in the latter half of the year due to labor market concerns and inflation remaining sticky [31][32]. - Major brokerage firms have reduced recession odds following a truce in trade disputes, indicating a potential stabilization in market conditions [32]. - The upcoming Top 10 stocks for 2026 will be announced on January 6, with expectations that the market may present buying opportunities during any pullbacks [30].
Chipotle CEO: ‘We are leaning into protein in the upcoming quarter’
CNBC Television· 2025-12-12 15:23
Joining us here at Post Chipotle CEO Scott Boltray he is fresh from ringing the opening bell here at the big word. Scott I see your ads in the NFL of course and you do this you know build your own and that is the first time where I think that you are offering a real price break for people. Are people taking you up on it.>> They are. We're pleasantly surprised by how it's performed. Although we still have very low awareness on build your own Chipotle.We know that consumer there's there's an opportunity in gr ...
Cracker Barrel Q1 Loss Narrower Than Expected, Revenues Down Y/Y
ZACKS· 2025-12-10 14:56
Core Insights - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results with adjusted loss per share narrower than expectations, but revenues fell short of estimates [1][3][8] Financial Performance - For Q1 fiscal 2026, CBRL reported an adjusted loss per share of 74 cents, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 78 cents, compared to an adjusted EPS of 45 cents in the same quarter last year [3][8] - Quarterly revenues were $797.2 million, missing the consensus mark of $801 million, and decreased by 5.7% year over year [3][8] Comparable Sales - Comparable-store restaurant sales decreased by 4.7% year over year, while comparable-store retail sales fell by 8.5% [4][8] Operational Challenges - The company faced a difficult macro and industry backdrop, leading to softer traffic patterns and operational challenges that affected food initiatives [2][8] - Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $16.4 million, compared to adjusted net income of $10.2 million in the prior year [6] Cost and Expenses - Cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) was $248.4 million, down 4% year over year, but as a percentage of total revenues, it increased by 60 basis points to 31.2% [5] - General and administrative expenses totaled $48 million, down 20% year over year [5] Balance Sheet - As of October 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $8.9 million, down from $11.5 million a year earlier, while inventory increased by 3.6% to $209.1 million [7] - Long-term debt decreased to $400.9 million from $527 million a year ago [7] Fiscal 2026 Guidance - CBRL revised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $3.2-$3.3 billion, down from $3.35-$3.45 billion, and adjusted EBITDA expectations to $70 million to $110 million, down from $150 million to $190 million [9][10] - The company anticipates commodity inflation in the range of 2.5-3.5% and hourly wage inflation of 3% to 4% [9]
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip with Fed rate decision on deck
Yahoo Finance· 2025-12-09 23:51
Market Overview - US stock futures remained stable as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's final policy decision of the year, with Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 futures all falling below the flatline [1] - Investors are cautious, with a nearly 90% chance priced in for a third consecutive quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] Federal Reserve Insights - FOMC members are divided on the need for easier policy, with some advocating for support of a cooling labor market while others warn of potential inflation risks [3] - The post-meeting statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference are highly anticipated for insights on future policy direction [3] Company Performance - GameStop (GME) stock fell 6% after missing quarterly revenue estimates, reporting $821 million in revenue compared to $860.3 million in the same quarter last year, and analysts had expected $987 million [9] - GE Vernova (GEV) shares rose 6% after the company doubled its dividend, indicating strong demand for natural gas-fired power [11] - Cracker Barrel (CBRL) stock dropped 8% after reporting lower-than-expected sales and trimming its revenue forecast for the fiscal first quarter [5][6] Commodity Market - Global bond yields reached their highest levels since 2009, indicating investor concerns about the end of interest-rate cutting cycles in the US [4] - Silver prices surged past $60 an ounce, driven by supply tightness and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [4][12]
Calls of the Day: Netflix, Thermo Fisher, Incyte and Shake Shack
Youtube· 2025-12-09 17:59
Group 1: Netflix and Warner Brothers Deal - The discussion centers around Netflix's potential acquisition of Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD), with concerns that Netflix may face losses in a future dominated by generative AI [1] - Analysts suggest that the WBD deal could put an additional $83 billion of value at risk for Netflix [1] - There is a belief that Netflix's global reach and technological flexibility may be overstated compared to the content management capabilities of Warner Brothers [4][5] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Stock Performance - One investor sold 85% of their Netflix shares due to concerns about regulatory issues and the stock's uncertain future [2] - The overall theme in communication services has been focused on cash, content, and consolidation over the past decade [2] - Despite recent volatility, companies like Thermo Fisher are viewed positively, with increased positions taken in anticipation of shifts in the global supply chain [6] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Bioarma, focusing on oncology, has seen a significant stock increase following its earnings report, with a market cap of $20 billion [7] - The recent corrective behavior in the market is seen as a natural adjustment, with strong fundamentals expected to support consistent revenue growth [8] - Small-cap companies like Shake Shack are noted for their resilience, having not reported any negative earnings or guidance despite market challenges [9]
X @The Wall Street Journal
Embattled Southern-style chain Cracker Barrel is seeking to rebuild its critical holiday business after the logo controversy https://t.co/YbMZdNqpaQ ...
Down 40%, Should You Buy SoundHound AI Right Now?
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-03 20:15
The company is growing, but so are its losses.How times have changed for SoundHound AI (SOUN +3.21%). The stock had a mammoth run of 835% in 2024, just to falter throughout much of this year. SoundHound stock is down 40% on a year-to-date basis, despite increasing its revenue and developing the building blocks of a unique business that's already being embraced by some industries.Is SoundHound stock just in a lull, or do the company's rapidly expanding losses signal a fundamental problem? Let's take a closer ...
X @The Wall Street Journal
Industry Focus - The restaurant industry emphasizes the use of local ingredients [1] - The industry explores innovative flavor combinations, such as peach-and-tomato ice cream [1] Culinary Innovation - Australian-born restaurateurs are highlighted for their culinary creativity [1]
What if We Looked at Restaurants as Community Catalysts? | Howie Kaibel | TEDxABQ
TEDx Talks· 2025-12-02 16:01
I know someone who believed he could turn a restaurant company into a community catalyst, that a simple series of curiosities could ultimately make the world a better place. Hi, let's have a conversation. You're talking to a minister of culture here.>> Pretty cool title, am I right. Please allow me to preach. Jeff Spiegel and Katie Gardner opened 11 restaurants in the heart of Manhattan over a period of 23 years.Those restaurants had an average employee tenure of eight years. They also hired and fired TV ce ...
The Market Isn't Pricing in This AI Megatrend, but These 2 Stocks Could Benefit First
The Motley Fool· 2025-12-01 17:46
Core Insights - The article discusses the potential of SoundHound AI and UiPath as significant beneficiaries in the emerging AI agents market, highlighting their unique technologies and strategic moves to capitalize on this trend [1][2]. Group 1: SoundHound AI - SoundHound AI specializes in voice AI technology, particularly "speech-to-meaning" and "deep meaning understanding," enabling more natural interactions with users [3]. - The company's acquisition of Amelia enhances its capabilities in agentic AI, providing conversational intelligence and a knowledge base tailored to specific industries like financial services and healthcare [4]. - SoundHound is launching its voice-first AI agent platform, Amelia 7, to major customers, and has acquired Interactions to improve its AI agent orchestration [6][7]. Group 2: UiPath - UiPath aims to be the primary orchestration platform for AI agents, leveraging its background in robotic process automation (RPA) to automate repetitive tasks [8]. - The company has developed the Maestro orchestration solution, which integrates AI agents, bots, and human workers to optimize task management [10]. - Recent partnerships with major AI players like Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI position UiPath favorably for accelerating AI agent adoption [11]. - Despite a slowdown in growth, UiPath's annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased by 11% last quarter, indicating potential for recovery and growth in the AI landscape [12].