Market Overview - The U.S. equity markets have experienced a downturn recently, primarily due to a pullback in blue-chip tech stocks, which has negatively impacted the overall market [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has increased to 4.2%, influenced by solid economic data, including a revision of second-quarter GDP growth from 3.3% to 3.8% [1][2] - Weekly jobless claims decreased to 218,000 from 232,000, contrasting with expectations of 235,000 claims, indicating a robust job market [1][2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The strong job market and revised GDP estimates have raised concerns about the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts, following a recent reduction of 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [2] - Investors are awaiting the personal consumption expenditures price index reports for August for further insights into the Fed's rate cut policy [2] Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investing is highlighted as a strategy to capitalize on current trends, based on the principle of "buying high and selling higher" [3] - This strategy aims to profit from the tendency to extrapolate current trends into the future before mean reversion occurs [3] Screening Parameters for Momentum Stocks - The screening process identifies stocks with the best percentage price change over the last 52 weeks, selecting the top 50 performers [5] - From these, the bottom 10 performers over the past week are chosen to identify those experiencing short-term pullbacks [6] - Stocks with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) and a Momentum Style Score of B or better are prioritized, indicating a higher probability of success [7] Selected Stocks - Wolverine World Wide, Inc. has seen a 62.5% increase over the past year but experienced an 8.2% decline last week, holding a Momentum Score of B [9][11] - Carpenter Technology Corporation has risen 48.9% in the past year but fell 5.8% last week, also with a Momentum Score of B [12][13] - Astera Labs, Inc. has surged 266.5% over the past year but dropped 20.3% last week, backed by a Momentum Score of A [14][15]

机构：中金公司 研究员：Shuwei ZHANG/Yan CHEN 1H25 results in line with our expectation The firm announced its 1H25 results: Revenue fell 7.3% YoY to Rmb2.34bn and net profit attributable to shareholders grew 6.8% YoY to Rmb204mn, in line with our expectations. 1) Sales volume of products fell slightly. Sales volume of high-speed steel, die steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys -10.4%, -5.2%, -20.4%, and +65.2% YoY to 7,000t, 68,000t, 95mn units, and 5,000t, mainly due to falling orders from overseas clients amid h ...

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets have continued to rise in 2025, with major indexes achieving significant gains in August: Dow up 3.2%, S&P 500 up 1.9%, and Nasdaq Composite up 1.6% [1][2] - All three major indexes reached several all-time and closing highs, with positive investor sentiment driven by the absence of tariff-related concerns, weak labor market data, and indications of a possible rate cut by the Fed [2][8] Company Highlights CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) - CRWD reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.93, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.83, with total revenues of $1.17 billion, surpassing the estimate of $1.15 billion [7] - The company added a record $221 million in net new annual recurring revenues (ARR), bringing total ARR to $4.66 billion, a 20% increase year-over-year [7][8] - CRWD is focusing on securing AI agents and has launched new products like Signal, an AI detection engine, to enhance its cybersecurity offerings [10][12] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CRWD are 20.9% and -9.9%, respectively, for the current year [13] Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR) - IBKR is expected to see a CAGR of 6.5% in total net revenues (GAAP) by 2027, supported by proprietary software development and expansion into emerging markets [14] - Recent initiatives include launching zero-commission U.S. stock trading in Singapore and extending trading hours for Forecast Contracts [15] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for IBKR are 8.8% and 11.4%, respectively, for the current year [16] Robinhood Markets Inc. (HOOD) - HOOD operates a financial services platform allowing users to trade various assets, including cryptocurrencies [17] - The company is expected to benefit from increased retail market participation, with trading revenues projected to improve [18] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for HOOD are 35.8% and 42.2%, respectively, for the current year [19] Carpenter Technology Corp. (CRS) - CRS specializes in premium specialty alloys and has expanded its additive manufacturing capabilities [20] - The company has experienced strong booking growth, indicating robust demand, and is well-positioned to invest in emerging technologies [21] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for CRS are 8.1% and 27.1%, respectively, for the current year [22] Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) - SRAD provides sports data services and reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.17, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.04, with total revenues of $360.57 million, a 20.3% year-over-year increase [24][26] - The company offers a comprehensive suite of solutions for the sports betting industry, including live streaming and risk management services [25] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for SRAD are 24.3% and over 100%, respectively, for the current year [26]

Company Overview - Metallus (NYSE: MTUS) is a leader in high-quality specialty metals, manufactured components, and supply chain solutions, with a focus on serving industrial, automotive, aerospace & defense, and energy end-markets [5] - The company has been in the business of producing high-quality steel for over 100 years and employs approximately 1,850 people [5] - Metallus reported sales of $1.1 billion in 2024 [5] Awards and Recognition - Metallus has been named a 2025 NorthCoast 99 award winner by ERC, recognizing it as one of the top workplaces in Northeast Ohio for attracting and retaining top talent [1][3] - The NorthCoast 99 award program, launched 27 years ago, aims to make Northeast Ohio a prime destination for companies and high-performing individuals [2] - The award reflects Metallus' commitment to a culture of care, collaboration, communication, and growth, which is essential for attracting and retaining talent [3] Industry Insights - The NorthCoast 99 winners undergo a rigorous application process that evaluates their strategies in employee engagement, talent development, well-being, and total rewards [2] - The 2025 NorthCoast 99 awards program is supported by various sponsors, indicating a strong community and industry backing for recognizing workplace excellence [4]

Mr. Thene succeeds I. Martin Inglis, who has informed the Board of Directors of his intention not to stand for reelection to the Board when his term expires at the 2025 Annual Stockholders Meeting. Mr. Inglis was elected Chairman of Carpenter Technology's Board of Directors in 2021 and has served on the Board of Directors since 2003. The Company is sincerely grateful for Mr. Inglis' contributions and leadership in his over 20 years of service. In addition, Brian Malloy, currently Senior Vice President and C ...

Market Overview - The U.S. equity markets have been volatile, reaching record highs due to strong quarterly earnings from blue-chip technology companies, but also experiencing sharp declines due to inflation concerns [1] - Stable labor market conditions and increased nonfarm productivity indicate a robust U.S. economy, although upcoming key inflation data is causing market uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts [1] Momentum Investing Strategy - Investors are turning to momentum stocks, such as Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS), Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT), and Root, Inc. (ROOT), as a strategy to achieve sustained profits when traditional value or growth investing falls short [2] - Momentum investing is based on the principle of "buying high and selling higher," capitalizing on established trends that are likely to continue due to existing momentum [3] Screening Parameters for Momentum Stocks - The strategy involves selecting the top 50 stocks with the best percentage price change over the last 52 weeks, ensuring steady appreciation [5] - From these, the bottom 10 performers over the past week are chosen to identify short-term pullbacks, combined with a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) for proven outperformance [6] - Stocks must have a Momentum Style Score of B or better, indicating favorable trading conditions and high probability of success [7] - Additional criteria include a current price greater than $5, being among the top 3000 by market capitalization, and an average 20-day trading volume exceeding 100,000 [8] Company Profiles - **Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS)**: Specializes in premium specialty alloys, with a stock price increase of 78.4% over the past year but a recent decline of 1.8% in the past week. It holds a Momentum Score of B [9] - **Virtu Financial, Inc. (VIRT)**: A financial services firm that has seen a stock price increase of 45.9% in the past year, with a recent decline of 3.2%. It also has a Momentum Score of B [10] - **Root, Inc. (ROOT)**: Provides insurance products and has experienced a stock price surge of 89.3% over the past year, despite a recent decline of 26.3%. It maintains a Momentum Score of B [11]

Financial Performance - Metallus reported second-quarter 2025 net sales of $304.6 million, a 9% increase from $280.5 million in the first quarter of 2025 and a 3% increase from $294.7 million in the same quarter last year [1][2][13] - Net income for the second quarter of 2025 was $3.7 million, or $0.09 per diluted share, compared to $1.3 million, or $0.03 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2025, and $4.6 million, or $0.10 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2024 [1][2][3] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter of 2025 was $26.5 million, up from $17.7 million in the first quarter of 2025 and $19.9 million in the second quarter of 2024 [1][2][3] Operational Highlights - The company experienced improved profitability and operating cash flow, driven by stronger end markets and market share gains [4] - Ship tons increased to 167,700 in the second quarter of 2025, a 10% sequential increase and a 12% increase compared to the prior-year second quarter [13] - Melt utilization improved to 71% in the second quarter of 2025 from 65% in the first quarter of 2025 and 53% in the same quarter last year [13] Cash and Liquidity - As of June 30, 2025, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $190.8 million and total liquidity of $437.0 million [6][12] - Operating cash flow for the second quarter was $34.8 million, primarily due to profitability and an income tax refund [6][12] - Capital expenditures totaled $17.8 million in the second quarter, including $15.3 million for government-funded projects [6][12] Government Funding and Contracts - The company received $5.1 million from the U.S. Army as part of a $99.75 million capacity expansion funding agreement [9] - Total government funding received to date amounts to $71.5 million, with expectations for additional funding throughout 2025 and into early 2026 [9] Outlook - The company anticipates third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to be modestly lower than the second quarter due to costs associated with labor negotiations, higher electricity costs, and planned annual shutdown maintenance [10] - Planned capital expenditures for the full year of 2025 are approximately $125 million, including about $90 million funded by the U.S. government [20]

Core Insights - Ati reported non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.74 for fiscal Q2 2025, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.71, while revenue was $1,140.4 million, below the expected $1,157.3 million but up 4% year-over-year [1][2] - Net income under GAAP increased by 23% year-over-year, driven by margin expansion and strong performance in core aerospace markets [1][2] - The company is focusing on expanding its titanium production capacity and investing in advanced manufacturing technology to meet future demand [4][7] Financial Performance - Non-GAAP EPS for Q2 2025 was $0.74, a 23% increase from $0.60 in Q2 2024 [2] - Revenue for Q2 2025 was $1,140.4 million, a 4% increase from $1,095.3 million in Q2 2024 [2] - Net income attributable to ATI was $100.7 million, up from $81.9 million in the previous year [2] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $207.7 million, a 14% increase from $182.6 million in Q2 2024 [2] - Adjusted free cash flow nearly doubled to $92.9 million compared to $47.8 million in the same period last year [2][10] Business Focus and Strategy - Ati specializes in advanced specialty materials, including nickel-based alloys and titanium products, primarily serving aerospace, defense, energy, electronics, and medical device markets [3] - The company has secured long-term contracts with major aircraft manufacturers, providing stability and supporting its growth strategy [4] - Aerospace and defense sales rose to $761.8 million, accounting for 67% of total revenue, with a significant increase in sales to commercial jet engine makers [5][6] Segment Performance - The High Performance Materials & Components segment saw sales increase by 8% to $608.8 million, with an EBITDA margin of 23.7% [6] - The Advanced Alloys & Solutions segment maintained steady sales but experienced a decline in EBITDA margins due to weaker industrial markets [6] Future Outlook - Management expects adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 to be between $200 million and $210 million, with adjusted EPS projected between $0.69 and $0.75 [11] - Full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA has been raised to $810–$840 million, with adjusted EPS forecasted at $2.90–$3.07 [11] - Adjusted free cash flow for the full year is guided in the range of $270 million to $350 million [11]

Core Insights - Carpenter Technology reported revenue of $755.6 million for the quarter ended June 2025, a decrease of 5.4% year-over-year, with an EPS of $2.21 compared to $1.82 in the same quarter last year [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $770.22 million, resulting in a surprise of -1.9%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $2.03 by +8.87% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Specialty Alloys Operations sold 46.87 million pounds, slightly below the estimated 47.04 million pounds [4] - Total volumes sold were 48.75 million pounds, close to the average estimate of 48.8 million pounds [4] - Net Sales in the End-Use Market excluding surcharge revenue totaled $623.7 million, down -1.9% year-over-year, compared to the average estimate of $629.98 million [4] - Surcharge revenue was reported at $131.9 million, a significant decrease of -19% compared to the year-ago quarter, and below the estimated $139.64 million [4] - Operating Income for Specialty Alloys Operations was $167 million, exceeding the average estimate of $163.52 million [4] Stock Performance - Carpenter's shares returned +3.1% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating potential for outperformance in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 FY 2025, Carpenter Technology generated $151 million in adjusted operating income, a 21% increase from FY 2024 and a 10% increase from the previous quarter [6][15][25] - The adjusted operating margin for the SAO segment reached 30.5%, up from 25.2% a year ago and 29.1% in the prior quarter [6][7][41] - The company reported $201.3 million in adjusted free cash flow for the quarter, contributing to a total of $287.5 million for the fiscal year [7][20][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The SAO segment achieved $167 million in operating income, a 19% year-over-year increase and a 10% sequential increase [7][17] - PEP segment net sales were $97.1 million, down 5% year-over-year but operating income improved to $11.7 million from $10.6 million a year ago [18][19] - Sales in the aerospace and defense market increased 3% sequentially and 2% year-over-year, with engine sales up 5% sequentially [8][9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sales in the energy end-use market increased 27% sequentially and 22% year-over-year, driven by demand from power generation customers [12][13] - Medical sales were up 6% sequentially but down 16% compared to the record prior year fourth quarter [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Carpenter Technology aims to achieve $660 million to $700 million in adjusted operating income for FY 2026, representing a 26% to 33% increase over FY 2025 [32][41] - The company is focused on expanding its brownfield capacity, with a $400 million project underway to enhance production capabilities [22][38] - The strategic focus remains on high-margin markets such as aerospace, medical, and energy, with a commitment to innovation and customer solutions [33][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the ongoing demand across aerospace and defense, medical, and energy markets, anticipating continued growth [13][34] - The company highlighted the importance of maintaining operational efficiency through preventive maintenance to support long-term growth [29][72] - Management noted that the supply-demand imbalance in the industry remains favorable, supporting pricing power [49][50] Other Important Information - The company ended the fiscal year with $664.4 million in total liquidity, including $315.5 million in cash [22][23] - The effective tax rate for Q4 was 19.7%, lower than anticipated due to discrete tax benefits [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Lead times and pricing expectations - Management indicated that lead times for jet engines remain extended and pricing actions are expected to continue as a tailwind due to a significant supply-demand gap [47][49][51] Question: Initial EBIT guidance for FY 2026 - Management confirmed that the EBIT guidance was approached conservatively, ensuring a realistic target based on internal assessments [56] Question: Orders supporting aerospace and defense volume acceleration - Management noted aggressive pulls on the defense side and positive discussions with aerospace customers, indicating a potential reacceleration in volumes [58][62] Question: Urgent requests in defense versus regular orders - Management explained that defense orders are historically uneven and dependent on various factors, but recent clarity in the defense budget suggests elevated order levels [69][70] Question: Power generation revenue growth - Management confirmed significant year-over-year growth in power generation revenues, highlighting its strategic importance [65][75] Question: Further mix gains in FY 2026 - Management expects continued growth in aerospace and medical markets, with a strong focus on innovation to drive mix improvements [81][86]