Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metal prices surged significantly on Monday, with gold auction prices reaching a record high of $3,475 per troy ounce, and spot gold briefly surpassing the $3,500 mark, indicating strong upward momentum [1] - Silver prices also rose sharply, reaching a fourteen-year high, highlighting the overall strength in the precious metals market [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Price Increase - The primary catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, triggered by actions from the U.S. government that are perceived as direct interference in monetary policy [2] - This political intervention has led to heightened risk aversion among investors, resulting in significant capital inflows into the gold market as a hedge against increasing political uncertainty [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Influence - Clear expectations for monetary policy easing have also provided strong support for rising precious metal prices, with recent statements from the Federal Reserve Chairman signaling a more accommodative stance [3] - The market's expectation of a rate cut in the upcoming September policy meeting has risen to over 75%, which is expected to continue supporting precious metal prices [3] Group 4: Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, gold prices have increased by over 30%, while silver has seen a rise of more than 40%, marking a historic bull market for precious metals [4] - Central banks' ongoing purchases of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the dollar have been a significant factor supporting gold prices [4] - Concerns over geopolitical uncertainty, rising inflation risks, and the potential health of the U.S. economy have further reinforced the safe-haven attributes and inflation-hedging value of precious metals [4]

Market Overview - Last week, spot gold opened at $3368.96/oz, peaked at $3453.63/oz, and closed at $3447.57/oz, with a weekly increase of 2.31% [3] - Spot silver opened at $38.918/oz, reached a high of $39.967/oz, and closed at $39.669/oz, marking a weekly rise of 2.24% [3] - The increase in gold prices was driven by heightened safe-haven demand due to concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, political instability in France, and cooling expectations for Russia-Ukraine talks [3] - Gold prices rose 4.7% month-on-month, while silver prices increased by 8.3% [3] ETF Holdings - As of August 29, 2025, SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increased by 20.91 tons to a total of 977.68 tons [3] - iShares Silver ETF's silver holdings rose by 21.18 tons to 15,310 tons [5] CFTC Positions - There was a net increase in gold positions while silver saw a net decrease, indicating a strengthening of both investment and speculative demand for gold [10] - The report suggests investors should participate with light positions and be flexible in their trading strategies [10] Futures Market - Gold futures basis remained stable, closing at 5.45 yuan/gram, with a peak of 5.66 yuan/gram [10] - Silver futures basis declined, closing at 48 yuan/kilogram, with a high of 56 yuan/kilogram [12] Domestic and International Price Differences - The domestic and international price difference for gold fluctuated, closing at -0.10 yuan/gram [12] - The silver price difference increased, closing at 399 yuan/kilogram [13] Delivery and Inventory - Both gold and silver showed a bearish trend in deferred delivery, suggesting a focus on potential shifts in market sentiment [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, due to factors such as the core PCE rebound in the US in July (highest since February but in line with expectations), the decline of the Michigan consumer confidence index, the weakening of the US dollar, the escalation of the geopolitical situation between Israel and the Houthi armed forces, and the ruling of the US appellate court on most global tariff policies, the price of precious metals is expected to continue to be strong. Short - term strategies suggest holding long positions or buying on dips [3]. - In the long - term, with the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, the central banks' gold purchases are expected to continue, and the long - term center of gold prices is likely to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 29, 2025, London gold spot was at $3411.45 per ounce (up 0.5% from the previous day), London silver spot was at $38.82 per ounce (down 0.1%), COMEX gold was at $3470.00 per ounce (up 0.5%), COMEX silver was at $39.49 per ounce (unchanged), AU2510 was at 785.12 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), AG2510 was at 9386 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%), AU (T + D) was at 782.05 yuan per gram (up 0.2%), and AG (T + D) was at 9357 yuan per kilogram (up 0.1%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On August 29, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.07 yuan per gram (up 2.3% from the previous day), the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 29 yuan per kilogram (down 9.4%), the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 2.99 yuan per gram (down 33.5%), the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 584 yuan per kilogram (down 3.2%), the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 83.65 (up 0.1%), the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 87.88 (up 0.6%), AU2512 - 2510 was 2.30 yuan per gram (down 1.7%), and AG2512 - 2510 was 24 yuan per kilogram (up 20.0%) [3]. b. Position Data - As of August 29, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was at 977.68 tons (up 1.01% from the previous day), the silver ETF - SLV was at 15309.99769 tons (down 0.15%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 275767 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 61456 contracts (down 1.96%), the non - commercial net long positions were 214311 contracts (up 0.81%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 68227 contracts (up 0.18%), the non - commercial short positions were 21761 contracts (up 0.97%), and the non - commercial net long positions were 46466 contracts (down 0.18%) [3]. c. Inventory Data - On August 29, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 39624 kilograms (up 0.30% from the previous day), the SHFE silver inventory was 1195996 kilograms (up 1.48%), the COMEX gold inventory was 38925853 troy ounces (up 0.42%), and the COMEX silver inventory was 518232360 troy ounces (up 0.20%) [3]. d. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Market - On August 29, 2025, the USD/CNY central parity rate was 7.10 (down 0.05% from the previous day), the US dollar index was 97.85 (down 0.02%), the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.59% (down 0.83%), the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23% (up 0.24%), the VIX was 15.36 (up 6.44%), the S&P 500 was 6460.26 (down 0.64%), and NYMEX crude oil was $64.01 per barrel (down 0.48%) [3]. e. Market News and Analysis - **US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index annual rate in July was 2.9% (highest since February, in line with expectations), the PCE price index annual rate was 2.6% (in line with expectations), the core PCE price index monthly rate was 0.3% (in line with expectations), the PCE price index monthly rate was 0.2% (in line with expectations), and personal spending growth rate was 0.5% (highest since September) [3]. - **Policy and Geopolitical News**: The US appellate court ruled that most of the global tariff policies implemented by President Trump were illegal. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen are preparing to confront Israel after the death of several high - level officials in an Israeli air strike [3].

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with COMEX gold futures peaking at $3552 per ounce and spot gold breaking $3480 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 32% for gold and nearly 40% for silver [1][2] - The recent surge in gold and silver prices is driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with a 87.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [2][9] - A strong demand for safe-haven assets is evident amid geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in the financial environment, further pushing gold and silver prices higher [2][3] Group 2 - A significant rise in A-share gold concept stocks has been observed, with the Wind precious metals index increasing over 6% and several individual stocks hitting their daily limit [5][6] - Specific stocks such as China Ruilin, Western Gold, and Shengda Resources have shown notable gains, with increases of nearly 10% [6][7] - Research institutions indicate that there is still room for gold prices to rise, driven by the challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence and the downward trend in real interest rates [8][10] Group 3 - The geopolitical landscape, including tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies, has contributed to the increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] - The recent actions by President Trump against Federal Reserve officials have raised concerns about the independence of the central bank, which may influence future monetary policy and impact gold prices [3][9] - Long-term forecasts suggest that the combination of fiscal dominance and monetary policy will lead to increased liquidity in the U.S. dollar, benefiting risk assets and potentially driving gold prices higher [9][10]

Summary of North American Precious Metals Weekly Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American Precious Metals sector, particularly gold and silver prices, and their performance relative to the S&P 500 Index [1][3]. Key Points Gold Price Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a narrowing range, with a potential breakout target of $3,618 per ounce if it surpasses $3,420 per ounce [1][2]. - The current support levels for gold are at $3,285, $3,132, and $3,050, while resistance levels are at $3,350, $3,420, and $3,500 [2][15]. - The price of gold has fluctuated recently, ending the week at $3,372 per ounce, up 1.1% from the previous week [12]. Performance of Precious Metals Equities - The S&P/TSX Global Gold Index has increased by 82% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which is up only 10% [3][26]. - Fresnillo, a silver-focused producer, has seen its share price nearly triple, up 194% year-to-date, driven by a 35% increase in silver prices [3][26]. - Senior gold producers, such as Gold Fields (+136%), Kinross Gold (+111%), and Newmont (+90%), have outperformed smaller and mid-tier producers [3][26]. Technical Analysis Insights - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with a breakout likely to occur soon [2][15]. - The report suggests that the market is currently more favorable for larger, senior gold producers compared to smaller peers [3][26]. Valuation Metrics - North American precious metal stocks are trading at an average of 2.03x NAV, which is within the historical range of 1.0-2.0x NAV [29][36]. - The report provides detailed valuation comparables for various gold producers, indicating their market cap, EPS, and P/NAV ratios [30][41]. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report notes the impact of macroeconomic factors, including US real rates and the strength of the US dollar, on gold prices [10][12]. - Recent market movements have been influenced by expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policies, particularly regarding interest rates [12]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the importance of monitoring technical levels and macroeconomic indicators for making informed investment decisions in the precious metals sector [2][12]. - The performance of precious metals equities is closely tied to the underlying commodity prices, with significant outperformance noted in the current year [3][26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the North American Precious Metals Weekly report, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the gold and precious metals market.

当地时间8月29日 8月累计涨幅超5% 国际金价显著上涨 纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价 收于每盎司3516.10美元 涨幅达1.20% 同日，国内金价也水涨船高 中国黄金投资金条为820元/克 上海黄金交易所金条 也升至782元/克 实物黄金方面 国内多数品牌黄金首饰克价 今天已突破1015元/克 周大福今日金价 | | | 国内现货 国际现货 黄金实物 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | 昌海 | | | 价格(元/克) | 日涨跌幅 | | 周大福 | | | 1015 | +0.59% | | 老凤祥 | | | 1025 | +0.89% | | 周六福 | | | 1000 | +0.91% | | 周生生 | | | 1016 | +0.59% | | 六福珠宝 | | | 1015 | +0.59% | | 等支章 | | | 1015 | +0.59% | | 老庙 | | | 1015 | +0.20% | | | 足金 (饰品、工艺品类) | 1015 元/克 | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Switzerland’s trade group for gold refiners opposes a relocation of some operations to the US to ease a trade imbalance between the countries and help tariff negotiations, newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung reported https://t.co/8iVMzk76U6 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices have maintained a high level, reaching the highest point since July 23, with a monthly increase of 3.6% as of now [3] - The weakening of the US dollar, which fell by 0.33% in overnight trading, has made gold more attractive to investors holding other currencies [3] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have risen to 86%, reflecting in trading data [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices may challenge $3,450 per ounce, with a potential upward trend if prices surpass $3,400 per ounce [4] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that buyers are gaining momentum, and if gold exceeds $3,438 per ounce, the next target will be the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce [4] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the 20-day simple moving average of $3,364 per ounce, sellers may target the 50-day moving average at $3,348 per ounce [5]

Core Insights - Gold prices fell into negative territory during European trading on August 28, influenced by a strong rebound in the dollar and profit-taking, retreating from a high of approximately $3,400 over the past three weeks [1] - The dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Donald Trump raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, which provided support for gold prices as a traditional safe-haven asset [1] - Despite silver failing to maintain gains above $40 per ounce, some fund managers noted its significant upward momentum, suggesting a potential return to historical highs set in 2011 [1] Economic Indicators - Traders are awaiting the second estimate of U.S. GDP, with expectations of a 3.1% annual growth rate for Q2, which could impact the dollar and commodity prices [2] - Attention will shift to U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for clues on interest rate cuts [2] Market Sentiment - Analysts expressed strong interest in gold due to issues surrounding institutional trust and potential risks to the Federal Reserve's independence [2] - The New York Fed President emphasized the importance of central bank independence amid Trump's intervention in monetary policy [2] Interest Rate Expectations - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting are nearly 87% [3] - If PCE data does not reflect strong inflation, doubts may arise regarding the Fed's ability to implement rate cuts in September [3] Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold prices lost momentum but remain supported above the 100-day EMA, with a resistance level at $3,410 [3] - A decisive breakout above this level could pave the way for a target of $3,439, while initial support is at $3,351 [3] Technical Analysis - Silver - Silver prices faced pressure after failing to sustain a breakout above a symmetrical triangle pattern, with key support around $38.13 [4] - A breakdown below this support could invalidate recent bullish momentum, while resistance levels are at $38.63 and $39.06 [4]

Group 1 - The current gold prices in China have seen significant increases, with major brands like Lao Feng Xiang and Dong Xiang selling gold jewelry at over 1000 yuan per gram, while other retailers like China Gold offer much lower prices at 792.5 yuan per gram [1][2] - The price differences between branded gold jewelry and non-branded options highlight the impact of brand value on pricing, with significant savings available in markets like Shenzhen's Shui Bei, where prices can be as low as 786 yuan per gram for 999 gold [1][2] - Platinum prices also vary widely, with branded options priced at around 552 yuan per gram, while non-branded options can be found for as low as 331 yuan per gram in Shui Bei market [1] Group 2 - Gold recovery prices are determined by the current market price, with China Gold's recovery price at 773.5 yuan per gram, reflecting the fluctuations in the international gold market [2][4] - The global economic environment is influencing gold prices, with a recent increase in spot gold prices by 0.62% to 776.58 yuan per gram, indicating market optimism for future price increases [4][5] - Central banks are increasing their gold purchases as a strategy to strengthen their reserves, contributing to rising demand for gold [5][6] Group 3 - Market expectations for gold prices are bullish, with major investment banks predicting significant increases, such as Citibank forecasting gold to reach 3500 USD per ounce in three months and Goldman Sachs suggesting a potential price of 4000 USD per ounce by mid-2026 [5][6] - Factors supporting long-term gold price increases include the difficulty of mining new gold and ongoing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6]