1) 1H25E results were certainly a beat. The announced 32%-36% net profit growth or 38%-42% adj. net profit growth in 1H25E are both much stronger than our 28% net profit growth forecast for FY25E. 2) The SSSG was resilient and on track so fast, but it is just inline with our estimates of 2% in FY25E. According to the management, the SSSG in 1H25E could be about LSD decline in 1H25E (made up of HSD drop in 1Q25E and MSD increase in 2Q25E). 3) In our view, the beat in results was primarily driven by the margi ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights BJ's Restaurants (BJRI) as a strong growth stock, supported by its favorable Growth Score and Zacks Rank, indicating potential for solid returns for growth investors [2][10]. Group 1: Earnings Growth - BJ's Restaurants has a historical EPS growth rate of 189.6%, with projected EPS growth of 38.5% this year, significantly outperforming the industry average of 7.9% [4]. - Earnings growth is emphasized as a critical factor for attracting investor attention, particularly double-digit growth which signals strong prospects [3]. Group 2: Asset Utilization - The company has an asset utilization ratio (sales-to-total-assets ratio) of 1.34, indicating it generates $1.34 in sales for every dollar in assets, compared to the industry average of 0.97, showcasing superior efficiency [5]. Group 3: Sales Growth - BJ's Restaurants is expected to achieve a sales growth of 3.2% this year, exceeding the industry average of 2.5%, indicating a strong position in terms of sales performance [6]. Group 4: Earnings Estimate Revisions - The current-year earnings estimates for BJ's Restaurants have been revised upward, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 6.9% over the past month, suggesting positive momentum [8][7]. Group 5: Overall Assessment - BJ's Restaurants has earned a Growth Score of A and a Zacks Rank 1, indicating it is a potential outperformer and a solid choice for growth investors [10].

Core Insights - YUM! Brands, Inc. reported second-quarter 2025 results with earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate but revenues exceeding expectations [1][9] - Following the results, shares of YUM declined by 1.6% in pre-market trading [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025 were $1.44, missing the consensus estimate of $1.45, but representing a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter [2] - Quarterly revenues reached $1,933 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $1,930 million, and increased by 10% year over year [2] Divisional Performance - Worldwide system sales, excluding foreign currency translation, increased by 4% year over year, with Taco Bell rising by 6% and KFC by 5%, while Pizza Hut saw a decline of 1% [3] - KFC revenues totaled $849 million, up 19% year over year, with comparable sales increasing by 2% [4] - Pizza Hut revenues were flat at $239 million, with comparable sales decreasing by 1% [5] - Taco Bell revenues reached $711 million, up 7% year over year, with comparable sales increasing by 4% [6] - Habit Burger Grill revenues amounted to $134 million, down 5% year over year, with comparable sales declining by 4% [7] Operating Margins - KFC's operating margin contracted by 360 basis points to 43% [5] - Pizza Hut's operating margin decreased by 580 basis points to 33.5% [6] - Taco Bell's operating margin contracted by 70 basis points to 36.8% [6] Cash and Debt Position - As of June 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $677 million, an increase from $616 million at the end of 2024 [8] - Long-term debt decreased to $10,418 million from $11,306 million at the end of 2024 [8] Long-Term Growth Targets - The company aims for approximately 5% annual unit growth and expects system sales to rise around 7% each year, excluding foreign exchange impacts [10] - YUM is committed to achieving at least 8% annual growth in core operating profit on a constant currency basis [10] Market Position - YUM currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) [11] - Other top-ranked stocks in the Zacks Retail – Restaurants industry include Cracker Barrel, BJ's Restaurants, and Yum China [11]

Core Insights - Yum! Brands Inc reported second-quarter earnings of $1.44 per share, slightly below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.45, and revenue of $1.93 billion, just under the expected $1.94 billion [1] - The company's underperformance was attributed to weak domestic results from KFC and Pizza Hut, which are facing significant competition [1] Stock Performance - Following the earnings report, Yum! Brands' stock declined by 3.1%, trading at $142.42, although it still maintains a 6.26% year-to-date gain [2] - Support at the $140 level has helped stabilize the stock since February [2] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts show caution towards Yum! Brands, with nine maintaining a "strong buy" rating and 18 a "hold" rating [3] - Options traders have exhibited increased bullish sentiment, with a call/put volume ratio of 1.85, higher than 96% of readings from the past year [3] Options Activity - Options volume is currently five times the typical intraday average, with the most active contract being the monthly 8/15 140-strike call [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the second quarter were $188.5 million, reflecting a 3.6% increase year-over-year [20] - Same restaurant sales increased by 0.7%, driven by a 2.1% increase in average check, partially offset by a 1.4% decrease in transactions [21] - Restaurant level adjusted EBITDA was $44.5 million with a margin of 23.6%, a decrease of 90 basis points from the prior year [25] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $30.1 million, an increase of 0.7% from the previous year [26] - Cash from operations decreased by 31.1% year-over-year to $28.7 million year-to-date [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Non-comp restaurants contributed $6.1 million in revenue during the quarter, while same restaurant sales growth was flat on a two-year stack basis [20][21] - The company is on track to open 12 restaurants in 2025, with build costs reduced to an average of $5.2 million to $5.5 million per restaurant [12][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transactions were down 1.4% for the quarter, but there was a sequential improvement of 170 basis points over Q1 [9] - The company is focusing on multichannel marketing in key markets like Phoenix and Dallas, which have shown sales lifts [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on building awareness and driving transactions while maintaining high-quality food and guest experience [6] - Key initiatives include multichannel marketing, operational improvements, kiosk adoption, and evolving the Portillo's Perks loyalty program [10][12] - The company is refining its new market playbook, with a focus on sustained marketing investment in Texas [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged challenges in Texas but remains confident in mid-teens revenue growth by 2026 [36] - The company is actively managing inflationary pressures through price increases and operational efficiencies [22][23] - Management expects total revenue growth for 2025 to be in the range of 5% to 7% [28] Other Important Information - Berkshire Partners redeemed $7.3 million in LLC units for Class A common stock, reducing their ownership to approximately 5.2% [18][19] - The company is nearly 90% hedged on beef prices, which is expected to mitigate inflationary impacts [62] Q&A Session Summary Question: Mix in the quarter and path to mid-teens revenue growth - Management explained that while kiosk usage increased items per transaction, there was a trade-down effect impacting the mix [38] - They remain confident in achieving mid-teens revenue growth by 2026 through foundational work in Texas [36] Question: Performance of new stores and marketing efforts - Management noted that some restaurants are entering their second year, and marketing efforts are ongoing to improve performance [43][45] Question: Labor and commodity inflation outlook - Management expects labor inflation to remain at 3% to 4% for the year, while commodity inflation is forecasted at 3% to 5%, primarily driven by beef [62][67] Question: Breakfast testing and limited menu impact - Breakfast testing is going well, appearing to be incremental without negatively affecting lunch or dinner sales [85] - The limited menu in Houston had some learnings, and management is adding back popular items [91] Question: Portillo's Perks loyalty program - The loyalty program has nearly 2 million members, and management sees potential for it to drive repeat frequency in expansion markets [99][103]

Core Viewpoint - Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has shown a recent downtrend, losing 5% over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal due to increased buying interest [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottom in the stock price, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausting [2][5]. - A hammer pattern forms when there is a small candle body with a long lower wick, signaling that bulls may be gaining control after a downtrend [4][5]. - The occurrence of this pattern at the bottom of a downtrend is a strong signal that bears might be losing control, indicating a potential trend reversal [5]. Fundamental Analysis - There has been a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions for CAKE, which is a bullish indicator for the stock's future performance [7]. - The consensus EPS estimate for the current year has increased by 1.8% over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts' optimism about the company's earnings potential [8]. - CAKE holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which typically outperform the market [9][10].

Q2 2025 Performance - Total revenue grew by 3.6% reaching $188.5 million[9, 10] - Operating income was $17.5 million[13] - Restaurant-Level Adjusted EBITDA was $44.5 million[13] - Net income reached $10.0 million[13] - Adjusted EBITDA was $30.1 million[13] Q2 YTD 2025 Performance - Total revenue grew by 4.9% reaching $364.9 million[16, 17] - Operating income was $27.9 million[17] - Adjusted EBITDA was $51.3 million[17] - Restaurant-Level Adjusted EBITDA was $81.1 million[17] - Net income reached $14.0 million[17] Fiscal 2025 Financial Targets - The company plans to open 12 new restaurants[20, 22] - Same-restaurant sales are expected to grow by 1% to 3%[22] - Revenue growth is targeted at 5% to 7%[22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System sales grew by 4%, driven by strong unit growth at KFC International and market share gains at Taco Bell U.S. [6][30] - Digital sales increased by 18%, with a digital mix reaching a record 57%, up two points from the previous quarter [30][8] - Total restaurant level margins were 16.3%, down approximately 150 basis points year over year due to unfavorable commodity impacts [31][32] - Core operating profit increased by 2% to $646 million, with ex-special EPS at $1.44, up 7% year over year [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC contributed 52% of Yum! Brands' divisional operating profit, with same-store sales growth of 3% in key international markets [10][11] - Taco Bell accounted for 37% of divisional operating profit, achieving 4% same-store sales growth, outpacing the limited service category in the U.S. by four percentage points [13][14] - Pizza Hut represented 11% of divisional operating profit, with same-store sales growth of 2% internationally, driven by recovery in the Middle East and strong performance in South Asia [15][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC International's same-store sales growth was driven by strong performance in South Africa, Spain, Canada, Japan, and the UK [10] - Taco Bell's same-store sales grew 5% in Europe, with double-digit increases in Canada and India [15] - Habit Burger and Grill experienced a year-over-year system sales decline of 1%, reflecting continued softness in consumer demand [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the most loved and trusted brand globally, focusing on digital sales and AI-driven personalized marketing [8][23] - KFC U.S. is implementing the Kentucky Fried Comeback campaign to improve performance in underperforming regions [11] - Taco Bell is expanding its beverage offerings with the Live Mas Cafe, targeting a $5 billion beverage market in the U.S. [19][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a tough consumer environment but noted Taco Bell's strong performance across all income bands [80][81] - The company expects to achieve 8% core operating profit growth for the year, with a focus on optimizing company store profits and managing G&A expenses [56][60] - Management remains optimistic about the future, citing strong digital capabilities and ongoing development momentum [45][48] Other Important Information - The company has made significant strides in sustainability, achieving 89% of suppliers certified for food safety initiatives and sourcing 94% cage-free eggs [24][25] - The transition of CEO from David Gibbs to Chris Turner is set to occur on October 1, with Gibbs remaining as an advisor until 2026 [6][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Guidance for the year and confidence in achieving 8% operating profit growth - Management remains on track to deliver 8% core operating profit growth, with solid performance expected in the second half [54][56] Question: Technology capabilities and their impact on metrics - The BITE strategy is positively impacting both top and bottom lines, with AI-enabled marketing showing strong returns [61][63] Question: Capital intensity and future unit development - The company will continue to be asset-light, focusing on high-performing restaurants and ensuring strong returns on investments [70][73] Question: Beverage strategy and differentiation - Taco Bell is well-positioned in the beverage market, with plans to expand the Live Mas Cafe and leverage proprietary beverages [76][77] Question: Consumer environment and brand positioning - Taco Bell is gaining market share even in a pressured consumer environment, with consistent sales growth across income bands [81][82]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - System sales grew by 4%, driven by strong unit growth at KFC International and market share gains at Taco Bell U.S. [5][30] - Digital sales increased by 18%, with a digital mix reaching a record 57%, up two points from the previous quarter [30][6] - Core operating profit increased by 2% to $646 million, with adjusted EPS at $1.44, up 7% year over year [32][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC contributed 52% of Yum! Brands' divisional operating profit, with KFC International growing same-store sales by 3% [8][12] - Taco Bell accounted for 37% of divisional operating profit, achieving 4% same-store sales growth, outpacing the limited service category in the U.S. by four percentage points [12][13] - Pizza Hut represented 11% of divisional operating profit, with same-store sales growth of 2% internationally, driven by recovery in the Middle East and strong performance in South Asia [15][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - KFC International saw strong performance in key markets including South Africa, Spain, Canada, Japan, and the UK [8][10] - Taco Bell's same-store sales grew 5% in Europe, with double-digit increases in Canada and India [14] - Habit Burger and Grill experienced a year-over-year system sales decline of 1%, reflecting continued softness in consumer demand [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the most loved and trusted brand globally, focusing on digital sales and AI-driven personalized advertising [6][7] - KFC U.S. introduced the "Kentucky Fried Comeback" campaign to improve performance in underperforming regions [10] - Taco Bell is expanding its beverage offerings with the Live Mas Cafe, targeting the $25 billion beverage category in the U.S. [18][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a tough consumer environment but noted Taco Bell's ability to gain market share across all income bands [80][81] - The company expects to achieve 8% core operating profit growth for the year, with a strong focus on optimizing company store profits and refranchising gains [53][56] - Management expressed confidence in the long-term growth potential, emphasizing the strength of their digital capabilities and operational scale [45][48] Other Important Information - The company opened 871 gross new units in the quarter, translating to 386 net new units [33][34] - The company is committed to sustainability, achieving 89% of suppliers certified in food safety initiatives and sourcing 94% cage-free eggs [23][24] - Yum! Brands plans to maintain a strong and flexible balance sheet while returning excess capital to shareholders [44][45] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Guidance for the year and confidence in achieving 8% operating profit growth - Management remains on track to deliver 8% core operating profit growth, with solid performance expected in the second half [53][54] Question: Technology capabilities and their impact on metrics - The Byte strategy is positively impacting both top and bottom line, with strong correlations between digital sales mix and sales growth [61][62] Question: Future capital intensity and CapEx benchmarks - The company will continue to be asset-light, maintaining a low percentage of restaurant ownership while ensuring high returns on tech investments [71][72] Question: Beverage strategy and differentiation - Taco Bell is well-positioned in the beverage market, leveraging successful proprietary drinks and expanding the Live Mas Cafe concept [76][77] Question: Consumer environment and brand positioning - Despite a challenging consumer environment, Taco Bell has consistently shown positive sales growth across all income bands, indicating strong brand resilience [80][81]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q2 2025 was $307.9 million, an increase of 19.1% compared to the previous year [25] - Same restaurant sales growth was 3.5%, with same restaurant traffic growth of 2% [25][26] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased to $30.4 million, down $4.9 million from the previous year, with adjusted EBITDA margin declining to 9.9% from 13.7% [29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 17 new system-wide restaurants in Q2, including 15 company-owned and 2 franchise-owned, bringing the total to 600 restaurants [30] - The acquisition of 40 franchise locations contributed approximately $7 million to revenue and $1 million to adjusted EBITDA [30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported positive same restaurant traffic growth in April, May, and June, with April being the best month in over two years [8][25] - The third-party delivery channel saw significant growth, with traffic increasing materially during Q2 [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - First Watch aims to open 62 to 67 new locations in 2025, with a strong pipeline of over 130 new sites approved [10][32] - The company is focusing on enhancing customer experience through digital innovations and culinary offerings, including a seasonal menu that changes every ten weeks [17][18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive traffic growth for the remainder of 2025, citing strong underlying trends and effective marketing strategies [8][30] - The company is lowering its commodity cost inflation guidance to 5% to 7%, down from high single digits, due to improved egg supply [33] Other Important Information - Labor and related expenses were 33.2% of sales, reflecting a 40 basis point increase from the previous year, driven by labor inflation and higher health benefit costs [28] - The company is committed to maintaining a culture of engagement and improving employee retention, with turnover rates below industry averages [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Customer demographics and market expansion - Management indicated that the shift towards a younger customer base is due to expanding into new markets and effective outreach to younger generations [39][41] Question: Confidence in raised EBITDA outlook - The relief in egg costs and positive trends in same restaurant traffic provided confidence for raising the EBITDA outlook [47][49] Question: Pricing strategy and margin implications - The pricing strategy remains consistent, with adjustments made to offset permanent inflation rather than temporary increases [51][53] Question: Marketing tactics and traffic growth - Marketing efforts have been focused on core geographies, leading to tangible traction and increased customer frequency [58][61] Question: Impact of new restaurant openings on margins - New restaurants typically operate at lower margins initially, but their strong sales levels help offset this effect [113][114] Question: COGS performance amid inflation - The company managed to keep COGS lower than expected through effective management despite inflation pressures [117][119] Question: Drivers of top-line growth - Improvement was seen across all dayparts, indicating a positive consumer response to the company's hospitality and quality offerings [121][123]