Summary of the European Central Bank Update / Briefing December 18, 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: European Central Bank (ECB) and Eurozone Economic Outlook Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rates Decision**: The ECB decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][3][13] 2. **Inflation Projections**: - Headline inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and stabilize at 2% in 2028. - Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to average 2.4% in 2025 and gradually decline to 2% by 2028 [2][9] 3. **Economic Growth Outlook**: - Economic growth has been revised upward to 1.4% for 2025 and 2027, and 1.2% for 2026, driven by domestic demand and investment [3][5] - The labor market remains robust with unemployment at 6.4% in October, close to historical lows [4] 4. **Domestic Demand as Growth Engine**: Real incomes are expected to rise, and a gradual decrease in the saving rate will support consumption. Business investment and government spending on infrastructure are also anticipated to bolster growth [5][12] 5. **Geopolitical Context**: The ECB emphasizes the need to strengthen the euro area economy in light of geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, which poses risks to economic stability [5][10] 6. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Annual inflation remained stable at 2.1% in November, with energy prices down 0.5% year-over-year and food price inflation at 2.4% [6] - Services inflation has increased, contributing to overall inflation, with compensation per employee rising at an annual rate of 4% [7][29] 7. **Risks to Economic Outlook**: - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, global trade challenges, and volatility in financial markets, which could disrupt growth and inflation [10][11] - A stronger euro could further lower inflation, while fragmented supply chains might increase import prices [10][11] 8. **Monetary Policy Approach**: The ECB will continue a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, assessing inflation outlooks and economic data on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3][13] 9. **Digital Euro Initiative**: The ECB is progressing with the Digital Euro project, aiming to enhance financial stability in the euro area [34][35] 10. **Future Projections**: The ECB plans to review economic and inflation projections in February, considering the impact of AI and other factors on growth [17][18] Other Important Content - **Labor Market Trends**: The job vacancy rate is at its lowest since the pandemic, indicating a cooling labor demand [4] - **Investment Trends**: The contribution of exports, particularly from the chemical industry, has surprised on the upside, indicating resilience in certain sectors [18] - **Financial Stability Concerns**: The ECB acknowledges risks to financial stability due to geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility [12][10] - **Legal Considerations**: Discussions around the ECB presidency succession and the implications of appointing a sitting member of the Executive Board were addressed, emphasizing the need for clarity on legal frameworks [33][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the ECB's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, inflation dynamics, and the central bank's strategic approach to monetary policy amidst ongoing uncertainties.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks. The deposit rate was kept at 2% on Thursday as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Fresh forecasts accompanied the decision, envisaging firmer economic expansion and inflation returning to 2% in 2028 after falling short of that level during the next two years. Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics has more. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% with a narrow majority vote, indicating a shift in monetary policy amid lower-than-expected inflation data [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The decision to lower the interest rate was supported by five members of the committee, while four members preferred to maintain the current rate [1] - Analysts had anticipated that more members would support the rate cut following the release of UK inflation data that fell below expectations [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the interest rate decision, the yield on UK 10-year government bonds increased by 4 basis points, rising from 4.449% to 4.494% [1]

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row as the economy in the 20 countries that use the euro increasingly looks strong enough to get by without the stimulus of lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. Bank President Christine Lagarde said that while the economy had remained “resilient,” there was too much uncertainty over trade and international conflicts to give any hints about future moves. “We reconfirmed th ...

钛媒体App 12月18日消息，为丰富香港高信用等级人民币金融产品，完善香港人民币收益率曲线，根据 中国人民银行与香港金融管理局签署的《关于使用债务工具中央结算系统发行中国人民银行票据的合作 备忘录》，2025年12月22日（周一）中国人民银行将通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统 （CMU）债券投标平台，招标发行2025年第十期中央银行票据。第十期中央银行票据期限6个月（182 天），为固定利率附息债券，到期还本付息，发行量为人民币400亿元，起息日为2025年12月24日，到 期日为2026年6月24日，到期日遇节假日顺延。第十期中央银行票据面值为人民币100元，采用荷兰式招 标方式发行，招标标的为利率。（央行官网） ...

The Federal Reserve cast the move as management of money-market conditions. Others see coordination with the Treasury to help fund the deficit and suppress long-term yields. ...

The Fed could have waited for delayed economic reports on inflation and employment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said. ...

Core Viewpoint - Policymakers are divided on the future direction of interest rates for the upcoming year [1] Group 1 - The decision-making body responsible for voting on rates is experiencing internal divisions regarding the path forward [1]

Barron's spoke with former colleagues of the leading candidate to replace Chair Jerome Powell. ...

美国联邦储备委员会10日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到 3.50%至3.75%之间。这是美联储今年第三次降息，也是自2024年9月以来第六次降息。 专家分析认为，受此前美国联邦政府"停摆"导致关键经济数据缺失等的影响，美联储12月的决策受到多 重困扰。 北京师范大学教授 经济学专家 万喆：这是九月重启降息周期以来的第三次连续降息，政策转向的意图 是非常明显的。12月1日起已经停止缩表，货币政策全面转向宽松。市场对降息25个基点已经有高度的 共识，真正的焦点在于会议传递的未来政策信号和内部团结度。 目前，备受关注的还有美联储的内部分歧。内部主流派认为本来这样的降息足以应对就业风险，同时能 保留政策灵活性；激进派则多次投票反对，主张更大幅度的降息，认为就业形势比官方数据更加严峻； 谨慎派则担忧降息过快可能延长通胀周期或者引发资产的泡沫。但是降息效果存在滞后性且面临全球经 济增长放缓、地缘政治风险等外部制约。 降息决策的核心矛盾还是一场"蒙眼决策"。美联储正在面临双重使命，稳定物价和实现充分就业的直接 冲突。降息理由是通胀和就业风险的显现，近期数据显示，劳动力市场出现更加明显 ...