期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货预计震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡回调。目前国债期货上有压力下有支撑，驱动力量 不强，维持震荡整理。一方面，内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，明年货币政 策环境偏向宽松，降息降准仍可期。叠加目前市场利率隐含的降息预 期较弱，国债期货具有较强支撑。另一方面，短期内宏观经济数据具 有较强韧性，短期内全面降息的紧迫性不强，叠加近期内外环境的不 确定性扰动较少，国债期货缺乏上行驱动。总的来说，短期内国债期货 以震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接 ...

Core Points - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 301.3 billion yuan, with a bidding amount and winning amount also at 301.3 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 375 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 73.7 billion yuan [1] - For the week, the PBOC executed 1,511.8 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1,000 billion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations, with 1,676 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 900 billion yuan of 1-year MLF maturing, leading to a net withdrawal of 64.2 billion yuan for the week [1]

Core Points - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 928 billion yuan with a bid amount of 928 billion yuan and a winning amount of 928 billion yuan [1] - The operation interest rate remains unchanged at 1.40%, consistent with previous rates [1] Summary by Category - **Central Bank Operations** - The central bank executed a 7-day reverse repurchase operation totaling 928 billion yuan [1] - The bid and winning amounts were both 928 billion yuan, indicating full subscription [1] - **Interest Rates** - The interest rate for the operation was set at 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 1,595 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 1,595 billion yuan and a winning amount of 1,595 billion yuan, maintaining an operation interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels [1] Group 2 - As of October 21, 2025, the central parity rates of the Chinese yuan against various currencies showed a depreciation against the US dollar by 43 points to 7.0930, and against the euro by 162 points to 8.2734, while the Australian dollar saw an appreciation of 72 points to 4.6309 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 612 billion yuan, maintaining the operation interest rate at 1.40% [1] Group 1 - The total bidding amount for the reverse repurchase operation was 612 billion yuan, which matches the amount awarded [1] - The operation interest rate remains unchanged at 1.40%, consistent with previous rates [1]

Group 1 - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 181.7 billion yuan for 7 days, with the bidding amount and winning amount both at 181.7 billion yuan [1] - The operation interest rate remains unchanged at 1.40%, consistent with previous rates [1]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China conducted a 401.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan due to 418.5 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for short-term maturities increased across the board, with the 7-day Shibor leading the rise [1][2] - The weighted average rates for various repo products also saw increases, particularly in the 7-day category, indicating a tightening liquidity environment [5] Shibor Summary - Overnight Shibor rose by 2.10 basis points to 1.4340% [3] - 7-day Shibor increased by 12.80 basis points to 1.5900% [3] - 14-day Shibor went up by 8.90 basis points to 1.6560% [3] Repo Market Summary - The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 increased by 2.3 basis points and 3.5 basis points, respectively, with transaction volumes decreasing significantly [5] - DR007 and R007 saw larger increases of 11.1 basis points and 18.5 basis points, respectively, with notable reductions in transaction volumes [5] - DR014 and R014 had smaller increases in rates but experienced an increase in transaction volumes [5] Money Market Conditions - The money market showed a tight condition in the morning, with overnight transactions around 1.55%, shifting to a more relaxed state by the afternoon [9] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was active, with 85 certificates issued totaling approximately 133.99 billion yuan [9] Bond Market Summary - The bond market saw rising rates across various maturities, with overall trading sentiment being moderate [10] - Specific increases included a 6 basis point rise for 1-month bonds and a 1.5 basis point rise for 6-month bonds compared to the previous day [10] Future Operations - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 600 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on September 25, 2025, with a one-year term [12]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 266.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous rate, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan after 112 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight loans increased by 3.80 basis points to 1.4360%, while the 7-day Shibor rose by 1.80 basis points to 1.4830%, and the 14-day Shibor increased by 3.20 basis points to 1.5370% [2][3] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, various rates saw slight increases, with the 7-day and 14-day rates both surpassing 1.5%. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rose by 4.7 basis points and 6.5 basis points, respectively, while transaction volumes decreased significantly [4] - The money market maintained a tense liquidity situation, with overnight rates stabilizing around 1.55% and 7-day rates between 1.53% and 1.55% after the central bank's operations [9] Group 3 - Agricultural Bank successfully issued a floating-rate green financial bond in the interbank market with a scale of 6 billion yuan and a term of 3 years at an interest rate of 1.80%. This bond is the first in the market linked to the central bank's reverse repo rate [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 1.875 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level [1] Group 1 - On the same day, 847 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - Throughout the week, the PBOC executed a total of 1.7268 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [1] - This week saw 4.257 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 1 trillion yuan in 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) maturing [1] Group 2 - The net injection for the week amounted to 1.2011 trillion yuan [1]

Monetary Policy Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted a 985 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous levels, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,668 billion yuan due to 3,653 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1][12] Interbank Offered Rates - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) saw a slight decline across various maturities, with the 7-day Shibor falling below 1.5%. Specifically, the overnight Shibor decreased by 0.20 basis points to 1.3650%, the 7-day Shibor dropped by 3.30 basis points to 1.4970%, and the 14-day Shibor fell by 1.50 basis points to 1.5540% [1][2][3] Repo Market Activity - In the interbank pledged repo market, short-term rates continued to decline slightly. The weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 fell by 0.8 basis points and 3.0 basis points, respectively, to 1.3597% and 1.4191%, with transaction volumes decreasing for DR001 and increasing for R001. Similarly, DR007 and R007 rates decreased by 4.0 basis points and 4.9 basis points, respectively [4][9] Funding Conditions - Overall funding conditions remained loose, with overnight rates trading in the range of 1.30%-1.55% and 7-day rates around 1.53%-1.58%. By the end of the trading day, the overnight rates had further eased to around 1.30% [9][10] Interbank Certificate of Deposit Issuance - On July 2, there were 50 interbank certificates of deposit issued, with a total issuance amount of 770.3 million yuan, indicating active market participation [9][10]