Core Insights - Gold and silver are among the best-performing assets this year, reaching all-time highs and significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [1] - The Neuberger Berman Commodity Strategy ETF (NBCM) is benefiting from its substantial allocation to precious metals, confirming the advantages of including them in a diversified investment strategy [2][3] Group 1: Performance of Precious Metals - Gold and silver have generated returns that exceed those of the S&P 500, making them standout assets in the current market [1] - NBCM, which is actively managed, has also outperformed the S&P 500 this year, highlighting the effectiveness of its investment strategy [2] Group 2: Allocation and Strategy - As of the end of the second quarter, precious metals represented the largest sector exposure in NBCM, with a 17.7% allocation to gold, which is more than double the ETF's second-largest exposure [3] - The management style of NBCM allows for flexibility in increasing exposure to gold and silver, especially during a period rich with catalysts for these metals [4] Group 3: Market Catalysts - Factors driving gold prices include ongoing purchases by global central banks and the anticipated lowering of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which enhances gold's appeal as it does not yield dividends or interest [5] - Silver has experienced a significant rally, reaching prices not seen since the 1980s, although it may be showing signs of a temporary peak [6] Group 4: Supply Dynamics - The market for silver is characterized by structural deficits, with five consecutive years of global supply shortfalls leading to a persistent short squeeze [7] - The tight supply situation is exacerbated by lagging industrial recycling volumes and strong import activity from India, indicating robust demand for silver [7]

#数据 根据2023/24年度USDA数据，日本是美国大豆第五大出口市场，占美国大豆出口总量约5%。 https://t.co/vRbkAMqN0n外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):路透：随着日本新任首相高市早苗周三开始履新，日本政府开始敲定一篮子采购计划，包括美国皮卡、大豆和天然气，以便在下周的贸易和安全会谈中向特朗普提出。两国领导人将于下周初在东京举行会谈。此前前任首相石破茂曾同意在美国投资5500亿美元以换取美国降低日本汽车关税。 ...

See also @biancoresearch and @AndreasSteno.Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch):Gold Warrants on the Shanghai futures exchange have nearly doubled since this chart posted a month ago. Up 25x since the beginning if the year.If anyone asks the question "who is buying gold?"Show them the updated chart and say "China."---What is a Gold WarrantA gold https://t.co/Q0DTth6x0L ...

Exporters are rejecting the bulk of cocoa beans arriving at Ivory Coast ports because of mold and a high volume of waste material, muddying the supply picture when the market is expecting a surplus. https://t.co/bkPM2B5xjF ...

Trade Dynamics - China's imports of US grain via major ports decreased significantly, with US grain transport ship arrivals down 56% year-on-year from January to September, falling from 72 to 32 [1] - Since July, there have been zero arrivals of grain transport ships from the US at the mentioned ports [1] - Grain transport ships from South American countries like Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay have increased, averaging over 40 arrivals per month since May, with 90% transporting soybeans [1] - As of September 11, China had not booked any US soybeans for the new sales season, a first since 1999 [1] - The US could lose 14 million to 16 million tons of soybean orders from China if China does not return to the US market by mid-November [1] - The US accounted for one-fifth of China's soybean imports last year, valued at over $12 billion, representing more than half of total US soybean exports [1] - China is using commodities as leverage in broader trade negotiations [1]

Core Insights - Silver's futures curve has entered deep backwardation, with the front-month contract trading $2.88 higher than later contracts, marking the steepest inversion since 1980 [1][15][24] - This backwardation signals significant changes in the market, indicating potential supply stress, surging demand for physical metal, or a breakdown in the usual price discovery process [2][19][20] Market Dynamics - The current backwardation is driven by strong industrial demand for silver in sectors like solar panels and electric vehicles, coupled with increased investment demand, leading to a double-sided squeeze on supply [9][10][11] - Lease rates for borrowing physical silver have surged dramatically, indicating growing stress in the market, with one-month lease rates spiking to 39% from below 1% earlier in the year [13][14] Implications of Backwardation - Persistent backwardation suggests that the physical market is now leading price discovery, shifting power away from paper markets dominated by speculative trading [26][27] - The current market conditions could lead to a significant revaluation of silver, with potential price targets between $100 and $400 per ounce based on historical patterns and technical analysis [40][42][47] Historical Context - Historical instances of silver entering backwardation have often preceded major price rallies, as seen in January 1980 and early 2011, where physical scarcity led to rapid price increases [32][35][39] - The current situation mirrors past events but is driven by more sustainable factors, including steady industrial demand and tightening mine supply [38][40] Future Outlook - If the backwardation persists, it could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle where rising spot prices and high lease rates force short sellers to cover their positions, further driving prices up [28][29] - The market is likely to seek a new equilibrium that reflects silver's true monetary value, potentially leading to a significant upward price adjustment [47][49]

Core Insights - The Hecht Commodity Report is recognized as a comprehensive source for commodities analysis, covering over 29 different commodities and providing various market calls and trading recommendations [1][2]. Group 1: Energy Commodities - Traditional energy commodities include crude oil, natural gas, coal, and biofuels, while nuclear energy has faced challenges due to historical accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima [2]. - Despite past issues, nuclear energy is expected to make a comeback by 2025, indicating a potential shift in energy strategies [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The report offers bullish, bearish, and neutral calls, along with actionable trading ideas for both traders and investors, highlighting its utility in navigating the commodities market [1][2].

Vietnam ended its decades-long monopoly on bullion trade and production, the first major liberalization of the market in more than a decade https://t.co/FZZdQX9cId ...

Core Insights - Gold prices fell below $4,000 per ounce due to escalating geopolitical tensions from Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure [1][3] - Crude oil prices also declined, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude experiencing drops of 0.37% and 0.44% respectively [4] Geopolitical Context - Russia has intensified its strikes on Ukraine's energy assets, with over 1,550 attacks reported in recent days, particularly affecting regions like Chernihiv, Sumy, and Poltava [3] - The attacks have resulted in injuries and power outages in Kyiv, reflecting a strategy to disrupt civilian access to energy during winter [2] Market Reactions - Following the attacks, gold prices decreased by 0.24% to $3,966.57, down from a previous high of $4,059.34 [3] - Crude oil benchmarks also fell, with WTI at $61.28 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.93 [4] Analyst Insights - Analysts expect continued volatility in crude oil prices, with support levels identified at $60.60-60.00 and resistance at $62.00-62.70 [5] - For gold, support is noted at $3,940-3,910, while resistance is at $4,020-4,045 [5] Broader Market Impact - The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has overshadowed recent optimism from a U.S.-brokered Israel-Hamas peace deal, which had previously lifted gold prices above $4,000 [6]

Core Insights - The Straits Times Index (STI) reached a new 52-week high, but three blue-chip stocks experienced significant declines, raising questions about whether these are temporary setbacks or indicative of deeper issues [1][2]. Group 1: Singtel - Singapore Telecommunications Limited (Singtel) reported a total return of -4.8% for September 2025, primarily due to issues with its Australian subsidiary, Optus, which faced a network outage impacting around 4,500 customers [3][4]. - Optus accounts for approximately 50% of Singtel's revenue, and the recent outages occurred while the CEO was under scrutiny from Australian authorities [4][5]. - Despite the decline, Singtel's share price remains near a decade high, and the company has a strategic plan to reward shareholders with dividends between 70% and 90% of underlying profits [5][6]. Group 2: CapitaLand Investment Limited - CapitaLand Investment Limited (CLI) experienced a total return of -3.9% for September 2025, with total revenue for the first half of 2025 reported at S$1.0 billion, down 24% year on year [7][9]. - The decline in revenue was largely due to the deconsolidation of CapitaLand Ascott Trust, which removed S$322 million from revenue; excluding this impact, CLI's revenue actually grew by 7% [10]. - Operating profit after tax and minority interest (PATMI) fell to S$260 million, a 12% decrease year on year, attributed to divested assets and lower fund performance fees [11][12]. Group 3: Wilmar International - Wilmar International Limited reported a total return of -3.7% for September 2025, facing regulatory challenges in Indonesia, including a fine of nearly US$710 million [14][16]. - Despite the fine, Wilmar generated US$1.3 billion in free cash flow for the first half of 2025, which is sufficient to cover the penalty [16]. - The company operates across a diverse range of segments, including food products and agribusiness, which are subject to commodity price fluctuations [17].