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蒙牛乳业-业绩说明会要点 -下半年企业对企业(2B)销售势头强劲,在周期延长下其他乳制品存利润率机会;买入
2025-09-02 14:24
Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy - **Ticker**: 2319.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$59.5 billion / $7.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$79.5 billion / $10.2 billion - **Industry**: China Consumer Staples Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Sales and Revenue Guidance - Management guided for a mid-single-digit to high-single-digit percentage decline in top line for FY25, with liquid milk expected to decline slightly, narrowing from a -11% decline in 1H25 to a better performance in 2H25 [1] - The company remains cautious about gifting demand trends for the Mid-Autumn Festival in Q3 and for Q4 due to a later Chinese New Year [1] 2B Business Highlights - Mengniu expects its 2B overall sales to reach approximately Rmb10 billion in 2025, with a double-digit percentage year-on-year growth rate [1] - Breakdown of the Rmb10 billion sales target: 60% from liquid milk (mainly from coffee/tea chained stores and food service) and 40% from solid milk (driven by sales from Australian plants and Milkground cheese) [1] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) for 2B business is expected to be lower than 2C, but Operating Profit Margin (OPM) remains healthy, particularly for the 2B liquid milk business, which can achieve around 5% Net Profit Margin (NPM) [1] Long-term Margin Opportunities - Management anticipates cheese sales to exceed Rmb5 billion, with Rmb2.3 billion achieved in 1H25, and ice cream sales to reach approximately Rmb6 billion, with Rmb3.9 billion in 1H25 [1] - Southeast Asia's EBITDA margin doubled last year with sales up by double digits, and NPM is nearing group-level [1] - Positive growth is expected to resume in the infant formula segment, contributing to long-term margin expansion from non-liquid milk business [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The winter season will be critical for observing supply/demand dynamics, with management noting a prolonged downcycle in 2025 YTD, showing a high-single-digit percentage year-on-year decline in demand for liquid milk [1] - Supply side is expected to cut by a low-single-digit percentage into Q3, with large-scale dairy farms reluctant to reduce herd size [1] - Potential supply/demand re-balancing opportunity is anticipated into mid-2026, with smaller dairy farms expected to exit the market [1] One-off Items and Losses - The company noted a significant narrowing of losses in the dry powder resale unit, expecting a 40-50% reduction in these losses [1] - Associate losses from Modern Dairy are expected to be smaller in 2H25 compared to 1H25, despite ongoing impairments from herd size cuts [1] - A one-off disposal gain from the sale of a New Zealand factory is anticipated to be less than Rmb100 million in 2H25 [1] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb88,674.8 million - FY25E: Rmb82,590.5 million - FY26E: Rmb86,527.8 million - FY27E: Rmb90,594.7 million [3] - **EBITDA Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb4,578.4 million - FY25E: Rmb8,992.1 million - FY26E: Rmb10,393.5 million - FY27E: Rmb11,266.0 million [3] - **EPS Forecasts**: - FY24: Rmb0.03 - FY25E: Rmb1.00 - FY26E: Rmb1.37 - FY27E: Rmb1.60 [3] Risks and Considerations - Key downside risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, slower recovery in dairy demand, increased competition in the dairy industry, and wider losses in new categories [27] Conclusion Mengniu Dairy is navigating a challenging market environment with cautious revenue projections for FY25, while focusing on growth in its 2B business and long-term margin opportunities. The company is also addressing supply/demand dynamics and potential losses in specific segments, indicating a strategic approach to stabilize and grow its business in the coming years.
Six-months results of AB Rokiskio suris Group for 2025
Globenewswire· 2025-08-29 13:38
Core Insights - Rokiskio suris AB Group reported consolidated unaudited sales of EUR 211.873 million for the first half of 2025, representing a 21.2% increase compared to EUR 174.808 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The Group achieved a net profit of EUR 10.288 million in the first half of 2025, with a net profitability of 4.86%, up from EUR 6.429 million in the first half of 2024 [1] - The EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was EUR 17.730 million, an increase from EUR 13.710 million in the first half of 2024, attributed to higher prices for fermented cheeses, whey products, and fats [2] Financial Performance - Consolidated sales for H1 2025: EUR 211.873 million, a 21.2% increase from H1 2024 [1] - Net profit for H1 2025: EUR 10.288 million, up from EUR 6.429 million in H1 2024 [1] - EBITDA for H1 2025: EUR 17.730 million, compared to EUR 13.710 million in H1 2024 [2] Market Factors - The increase in operating results is primarily due to higher prices for fermented cheeses, whey products, and fats during the first half of 2025 [2]
蒙牛乳业:H25 初步看法,核心自营运利润(OPM)因现金流改善超预期,尽管液态奶销售持续疲软
2025-08-28 02:12
Summary of Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) 1H25 Results and Key Insights Company Overview - **Company**: Mengniu Dairy - **Ticker**: 2319.HK - **Reporting Period**: 1H25 - **Report Date**: August 27, 2025 Key Financial Highlights 1. **Sales and Net Profit**: - Total sales decreased by **6.9% year-on-year (yoy)** to **Rmb 41.6 billion** - Net profit fell by **16.4% yoy** to **Rmb 2.0 billion** [1][9] 2. **Core Operating Profit (OP)**: - Core OP increased by **13% yoy**, with an Operating Profit Margin (OPM) of **8.5%**, up **150 basis points (bps)** yoy, exceeding the market expectation of **7.6%** [1][8] 3. **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: - GPM expanded by **1.5 percentage points (pp)** in 1H25, attributed to lower raw milk costs [1][8] 4. **Cash Flow**: - Operating Cash Flow (OCF) improved to **Rmb 2.8 billion**, a **46% increase** from **Rmb 1.92 billion** in June 2024 [1][8] 5. **Capital Expenditure (Capex)**: - Capex significantly reduced by **40% yoy** to **Rmb 1.0 billion** in 1H25 [1][8] 6. **Net Debt**: - Net debt decreased by **19% half-on-half (HoH)** to **Rmb 14.1 billion** from **Rmb 17.3 billion** at the end of 2024 [1][8] Segment Performance 1. **Liquid Milk Sales**: - Liquid milk sales declined by **11% yoy**, below market expectations by **5%** [1][7] - Fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt showed growth, while ice cream sales increased by **15% yoy** [1][7] 2. **Other Dairy Products**: - Infant formula sales grew by **2% yoy**, and other dairy products (including cheese) increased by **12% yoy** [1][7] Challenges and Risks 1. **Associate Losses**: - Higher associate losses due to raw milk price cycles, with losses of **Rmb 545 million** in 1H25 compared to **Rmb 133 million** in 1H24 [1][9] 2. **Interest Income**: - Interest income decreased to **Rmb 540 million** from **Rmb 914 million** [1][9] 3. **Tax Rate**: - Effective tax rate increased to **24%**, primarily due to associate losses, compared to **18%** in 1H24 [1][9] Future Outlook 1. **Demand Outlook**: - Upcoming onsite briefing scheduled for August 28, focusing on demand outlook for liquid milk, growth expectations for 2H25, and product plans [1][3] 2. **Raw Milk Cycle**: - Industry herd size is declining, with expectations for further reductions, impacting raw milk supply and pricing [1][10] 3. **Shareholder Returns**: - Discussion on shareholder return plans is anticipated in the upcoming briefing [1][3] Management Changes - **CFO Appointment**: Mr. Shen Xinwen appointed as CFO effective September 1, 2025, succeeding Mr. Zhang Ping [2][2] Investment Considerations - **Price Target**: Goldman Sachs maintains a **Buy** rating with a 12-month price target of **HK$ 23.30**, representing an upside of **43.8%** from the current price of **HK$ 16.20** [13][14] - **Risks**: Key risks include slower-than-expected premium demand, intense competition, and potential wider losses in new categories [13][13]
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-08-27 12:20
Mastitis Costs The Dairy Industry $32 Billion A Year. Julia Somerdin Is Trying To Change That https://t.co/OkK0lYYhvu https://t.co/jV0wbuQqfT ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-08-25 21:56
French dairy giant Lactalis will pay more for Fonterra Cooperative Group’s consumer business after the New Zealand firm settled a dispute with Australia’s Bega https://t.co/JW7la3VGMR ...
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-08-22 19:10
Mastitis Costs The Dairy Industry $32 Billion A Year. Julia Somerdin Is Trying To Change That https://t.co/8nnR2LnwTF https://t.co/mR1MUWJdUJ ...
A股收评:沪指高开高走收涨1.45% 半导体板块走强
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-22 07:46
Market Performance - The three major A-share indices collectively closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.07%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.36% [2] - The North Stock 50 index saw a gain of 0.69% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 25,788 billion yuan, an increase of 872 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Sector Performance - Over 2,800 stocks in the market experienced an increase [2] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with stocks such as Shengmei Shanghai, Haiguang Information, Hanwha, and Chengdu Huamei hitting the daily limit of 20% [2] - The securities sector also performed well, with Everbright Securities and Xinda Securities reaching their daily limit [2] - The CPO sector saw gains, with stocks like Founder Technology and Xuguang Electronics hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, the dairy sector weakened, with Keta Bio falling nearly 4% [2] - The gas sector also declined, with Hongtong Gas dropping over 2% [2]
A股午评:沪指逼近3800点,半导体板块走强
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-08-22 05:34
Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively rose on the 22nd, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.67%, approaching 3800 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.32%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.56% [2] - The North China 50 Index also saw a gain of 0.50% [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 15,307 billion yuan, a decrease of 606 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] Stock Performance - Over 1900 stocks in the market experienced an increase [2] - The semiconductor sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Shengmei Shanghai hitting the daily limit, and Haiguang Information, Hanwha Technology, and Shengke Communication rising over 10% [2] - The securities sector also performed well, with Xinda Securities reaching the daily limit [2] - The CPO sector saw gains, with Fangzheng Technology and Zhishang Technology hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, the dairy sector weakened, with Keta Bio falling over 4% [2] - The gas sector also declined, with Hongtong Gas dropping over 3% [2]
'Wizard of Oz'-themed butter sculpture unveiled at New York State Fair
NBC News· 2025-08-20 20:18
I can't believe it's butter. The American Dairy Association unveiled the 57th annual butter sculpture at the great New York State Fair. And let's just say it's really on a roll.This enormous spread is made up of 800 lb of butter. It's inspired by the 125th anniversary of the Wizard of Oz. It took 11 days to whip up this sculpture, and so clearly there was no margarine for error.Once the fair ends, the butter will be recycled and used as a renewable energy source. ...
X @Forbes
Forbes· 2025-08-20 19:00
Mastitis Costs The Dairy Industry $32 Billion A Year. Julia Somerdin Is Trying To Change That https://t.co/mwyHRmpmLe https://t.co/MqokLmvwtH ...