Core Insights - MongoDB reported impressive Q1 results, with adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share on revenue of $549 million, surpassing analyst expectations of $0.66 and $528 million respectively, leading to a 15% increase in stock price during after-hours trading [2] - The company is currently trading at approximately $230 per share, with valuation multiples of 8.8x trailing revenues and 55x trailing adjusted earnings, which are lower than its three-year averages of 12.2x and 143x respectively [3] - MongoDB has consistently increased revenues at an average annual rate exceeding 30% over the past three years, despite reporting GAAP losses, and maintains a strong balance sheet with debt at only 0.2% of equity [4] Q1 Highlights and Growth Drivers - Q1 sales rose by 22% year-over-year, driven by a 26% increase in Atlas revenues, reaching approximately $395 million [5] - The operating margin improved from -22% in the prior-year quarter to -10% in Q1, with adjusted operating margin increasing by 900 basis points to 16% [5] - Adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share represent a 96% increase from $0.51 in the same quarter of the previous year [5] Future Projections - MongoDB anticipates Q2 revenue between $548 million and $553 million, with adjusted earnings per share projected between $0.62 and $0.66, both exceeding consensus estimates [6] Strategic Positioning in the AI Landscape - MongoDB is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI boom through its Atlas Vector Search features, establishing itself as a leading vector database for AI applications [8] - The company is expanding its AI Applications Program through partnerships with major AI and technology firms, and the introduction of cost-reducing vector quantization features is expected to drive further growth [8]

Financial Performance - The company's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) reached $252.1 million, representing a 20% year-over-year growth[8,58] - The company boasts a high dollar-based Net Retention Rate (NRR) of over 114%[8] - The company's Non-GAAP gross margin is strong at 89%[8] - The company's revenue mix shows that 97% comes from software and 3% from services[66] Customer Base - The company has a total of 937 customers[8] - The company has 306 customers with ARR greater than $100,000 and 51 customers with ARR greater than $1 million[8] - Capella contributes to 17.4% of the total ARR[8] Future Outlook - The company anticipates achieving 20%+ growth and positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) and Non-GAAP Operating Income by FY27[73] - The company projects ARR to reach $281.8 million and revenue to reach $230.3 million for FY26[72]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ARR was $252.1 million, up 21% year over year and 6% sequentially, exceeding guidance by $7.7 million [5][15][24] - Net new ARR was $14.2 million, up more than 300% year over year, marking the highest net new ARR performance for the first quarter in company history [5][16] - Revenue in Q1 was $56.5 million, up 10% year over year and 3% sequentially [5][17] - Non-GAAP operating loss was $4.2 million, an improvement from a loss of $6.7 million year over year [6][20] - Gross margin was 88.7%, down from 89.9% a year ago [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Capella ARR was $44 million, representing 17.4% of total ARR, up from 11.5% in Q1 of fiscal 2025 [6][16] - Capella saw an increase of over 80% in consumption year over year, driven by new applications and migrations [7][8] - Professional service revenue was $1.7 million, down 27% year over year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company exited Q1 with 937 customers, a decrease of 10 net new customers from the previous quarter, primarily due to churn in starter pack customers [18] - The dollar-based net retention rate (NRR) was greater than 114%, with expectations to return to historical levels in the second half of the fiscal year [17][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to be the database for critical applications, focusing on large strategic accounts and enhancing Capella adoption [4][6] - The introduction of a free tier for Capella is intended to lower barriers for developers and drive long-term expansion [6][11] - The company is committed to maintaining a rapid pace of innovation, particularly in AI and mobile use cases [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that macroeconomic uncertainty did not impact performance, with a healthy pipeline and strong execution [5][28] - The company expects continued growth in Capella and strategic opportunities, with guidance for Q2 revenue between $54.4 million and $55.2 million [23][24] - Management remains confident in achieving full-year objectives, including driving growth and Capella adoption [14][24] Other Important Information - The company launched Couchbase Edge Server, aimed at providing low-latency data access in resource-constrained environments [11][12] - The remaining performance obligations (RPO) totaled $239.6 million, with an expected 66% to be recognized as revenue over the next twelve months [21][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of macroeconomic conditions on customer conversations - Management acknowledged longer sales cycles and increased deal scrutiny but emphasized a healthy pipeline and strategic positioning in the market [26][28] Question: Go-to-market improvements and the new free Capella tier - Management highlighted enhancements to offerings for developers, including the Capella free tier, which has significantly increased trial volumes [29][30] Question: Revenue performance versus ARR growth - Management explained that differences in revenue recognition patterns, particularly due to migrations to Capella, impacted revenue growth [35][40] Question: Competition from Postgres databases - Management expressed confidence in Couchbase's differentiation and its ability to support critical applications, despite competition from Postgres [46][49] Question: Workloads being added by strategic accounts - Management indicated that strategic accounts are deploying multiple applications, leading to significant growth in ARR [65][67] Question: Changes to starter packs and customer churn - Management noted that churn in starter pack customers was expected, but highlighted success in converting some to higher ARR levels [73][75] Question: Future growth and efficiency in sales and marketing - Management is focused on improving efficiency while expanding growth, aiming to reduce sales and marketing expenses as a percentage of revenue [76][77]

Core Viewpoint - MongoDB is set to report earnings on June 4, 2025, with historical data indicating a tendency for negative stock reactions post-earnings announcements, as evidenced by a 55% decline rate over the past five years [1][3]. Earnings Estimates - Consensus estimates predict earnings of $0.66 per share on revenues of $527.5 million, compared to $0.51 per share on sales of $450.6 million in the same quarter last year [3]. - MongoDB's current market capitalization stands at $15 billion, with $2.0 billion in revenue over the last twelve months, alongside an operating loss of $216 million and a net loss of $129 million during the same period [3]. Historical Performance - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for MongoDB, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 45% of the time [6]. - The median of the 9 positive returns is 19%, while the median of the 11 negative returns is -10% [6]. - The percentage of positive returns drops to 36% when considering data from the last three years [6]. Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders can utilize historical patterns to inform their strategies, either by positioning themselves before earnings releases or analyzing the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post-release [2][4]. - A less risky strategy involves understanding the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns, allowing traders to position themselves accordingly based on positive 1D returns [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market has faced challenges, with the S&P 500 down 8% and the Nasdaq Composite down 14%, presenting a buying opportunity, particularly for technology stocks listed on Nasdaq [1] Group 1: Shopify - Shopify has a 42% upside potential based on Wall Street's median target price [3] - The company provides commerce software and services, ranking as a leader in digital commerce platforms for mid-market businesses [3][4] - Shopify's merchants account for over 12% of U.S. retail e-commerce sales and 6% in Western Europe, making it the second-largest e-commerce company in these regions [4] - The B2B e-commerce market, where Shopify has been recognized as a leader, is three times larger than retail e-commerce and growing nearly twice as fast [5] - In Q4, Shopify's revenue increased by 31% to $2.8 billion, with non-GAAP earnings rising 29% to $0.44 per diluted share [6] - The median stock price target for Shopify is $135, indicating a 42% upside from the current price of $95, with expected earnings growth of 24% in 2025 [7] Group 2: MongoDB - MongoDB has a 73% upside potential based on Wall Street's median target price [8] - The company is recognized as a leader in cloud database management systems, with strengths in transaction processing and analytical capabilities [9] - MongoDB's customer base grew by 14% to 54,500, with revenue rising 20% to $548 million in Q4 of fiscal 2025 [10] - The median target price for MongoDB is $300, suggesting a 73% upside from the current price of $173 [11] - Despite disappointing guidance predicting a 30% earnings decline in fiscal 2026, MongoDB's current valuation of 65 times forward earnings is the lowest in its history [12]