截至2025年11月25日 10:29，云计算ETF天弘(517390)盘中换手3.22%，成交1244.89万元。跟踪的中证沪港 深云计算产业指数(931470)强势上涨3.61%，成分股中际旭创(300308)上涨7.15%，卫宁健康(300253)上涨 6.94%，新易盛(300502)上涨6.92%，石基信息(002153)，星网锐捷(002396)等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至11月24日，云计算ETF天弘(517390)近1年规模增长3.28亿元，实现显著增长。 计算机ETF(159998)盘中换手2.09%，成交5255.44万元。跟踪的中证计算机主题指数(930651)强势上涨 1.74%，成分股卫宁健康(300253)上涨6.94%，石基信息(002153)上涨6.38%，协创数据(300857)上涨6.36%， 千方科技(002373)，浪潮信息(000977)等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至11月24日，计算机ETF(159998)近1年规模增长4.42亿元，近1周份额增长6600.00万份， 实现显著增长。 从资金净流入方面来看，计算机ETF(159998)近5天获得连续资金净流入，合计 ...

2025 年 11 月 21 日 招银国际环球市场 | 睿智投资 | 行业研究 英伟达（NVDA US，未评级）再次交出了超预期的季度业绩。公司三季度收入大 幅增长至 570 亿美元，同比增长 62%，环比增长 22%，超出彭博一致预期/公司 指引 3%/6%。公司本季度收入环比增加 100 亿美元，显著超出 40-50 亿美元的历 史正常水平。Non-GAAP 毛利率为 73.6%，略低于彭博预期但小幅超出公司指 引。毛利率环比提升 1.0 个百分点，主要得益于数据中心产品组合升级、交货周 期缩短以及成本结构优化。管理层给出了强劲的四季度指引：预计收入将达到 650 亿美元，同比增长 65%，环比增长 14%，高于彭博预期的 620 亿美元。这意 味着公司下季度将实现 80 亿美元的大幅环比增长。四季度 non-GAAP 毛利率指 引为 75.0%，符合公司此前预计毛利率将在年底达到 75%左右的目标。对于 2027 财年，管理层预计毛利率将持续维持在 75%。 值得注意的是，英伟达在多重挑战下仍交出了出色的业绩，例如：1）受出口管 制，中国市场的收入贡献几乎忽略不计；2）市场对 AI 行业是否存在泡沫产生 ...

Core Insights - Nvidia Corp. reported a strong third-quarter earnings, with revenue of $57.01 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $54.88 billion, and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.30, surpassing the forecast of $1.25, reflecting a 60.5% year-over-year increase [1][2] Financial Performance - Gross margin was reported at 73.6%, with operating income reaching $37.75 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 66.2%, both figures among the highest in the S&P 500 [2] - The Data Center segment was a significant growth driver, with revenue soaring to $51.2 billion, a 56% increase from the previous year, and exceeding estimates by over $1.5 billion [3][4] Future Outlook - Nvidia's management indicated potential upside to its previous $500 billion Data Center revenue outlook for 2025-2026, driven by strong AI demand [3][4] - For the fourth quarter, Nvidia guided revenue to $65 billion, surpassing Goldman Sachs' estimate of $63.2 billion and the Street's estimate of $62.4 billion, with gross margin guidance set at 75% [5] Valuation and Price Target - Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target for Nvidia from $240 to $250, reflecting increased confidence in the company's earnings power and margin resilience, expecting a 30x forward earnings multiple on a revised EPS forecast of $8.25 [6] - In a bullish scenario, Nvidia could achieve an EPS of $9.50 with a 35x multiple, leading to a price target of $333, indicating nearly 70% upside [7] - In a bearish scenario, projected EPS of $5.80 with a 25x multiple would result in a price target of $145, representing a potential 26.3% downside [8]

据英伟达发布的最新财报显示，公司第三季度营收达570亿美元，远超华尔街预期的554亿美元。同时，公司第四季度营收指引达650亿美元，同样 高于市场预估的624亿美元。受亮眼业绩推动，英伟达股价在美股盘后涨超5%。 针对这份财报，高盛最新研报维持对英伟达"买入"评级，并将未来12个月目标价从240美元上调至250美元。高盛分析师指出，相较于强劲的财务 数据，管理层在财报会议中对三个关键问题的回应更具战略意义。 这三个问题涵盖数据中心收入前景、下一代Rubin芯片的进展，以及GPU产品生命周期。管理层的明确回应为投资者提供了关于公司长期增长确 定性的重要依据。报告进一步指出，尽管投资者此前对本季度业绩预期已相对充分，但管理层的清晰表态有望为股价延续上涨势头提供支撑。 财报显示，英伟达预计第四季度毛利率将回升至75%，重新达到管理层此前设定的目标水平。尽管面临HBM内存及其他组件成本上升的压力，公 司仍相信通过产品定价优化与成本控制措施，能够在2026年将毛利率维持在70%左右。 基于对营收与毛利率前景的进一步看好，高盛将英伟达未来几年的每股收益（EPS）预期平均上调12%。此外，高盛首次给出2028至2030财年 ...

营收570.06 亿美元，同比增长62%。 "升！全地球复苏。跌！宇宙大爆炸。" 苦等一夜的英伟达三季报，终于在凌晨，引爆全球。 营收高于市场预期约10个百分点，英伟达交出三季报答卷。 数据显示，英伟达Q3营收570.06亿美元，同比增长62%，超过市场预期552.12亿美元。 净利润为319.1亿美元，同比增长65%。数据中心业务营收512亿美元，同比增长66%。拉动英伟达盘后股价一度涨超 4%。 作为市值曾突破五万亿美元的全球企业No.1，英伟达几乎占据着标普500指数权重的8%，它在道琼斯工业平均指数里，也是纳斯达克100指数的一部分， 权重大约10%。 作为全球最大的AI芯片公司，英伟达占据全球AI芯片市场92%的份额，当前美股市场AI泡沫的声音甚嚣尘上，英伟达的业绩表现将成为检验AI需求真实 性和持续性的关键试金石。 而作为美股"七姐妹"中最后一家发布财报的科技巨头，英伟达此番业绩报告将有可能为2025年末市场定调。 因此，英伟达此番业绩披露成为全球投资者关注的焦点。"本周交易员脑子里只有一件事，而且就这一件事——英伟达财报。"这是策略师们近一周的心 声。 一路高歌，连续九个季度营收增长 美东时间1 ...

247 Wall Street NVIDIA (Nasdaq: NVDA) reports fiscal third quarter 2026 results after the close, and expectations could hardly be higher. The company is coming off another record quarter with $46.7 billion in Q2 revenue, driven by surging demand for Blackwell, strong sequential growth in networking, and broad adoption across CSPs, enterprises and sovereign AI programs. Jensen Huang and Colette Kress emphasized that the global AI build-out is still in its early innings, with industry CapEx now running at an ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are all down ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures down 0.68%, S&P 500 futures down 0.57%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.72% [1] - European indices also show declines, with Germany's DAX down 1.40%, UK's FTSE 100 down 1.37%, France's CAC40 down 1.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.46% [2][3] - WTI crude oil is up 0.02% at $59.87 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is down 0.05% at $64.17 per barrel [4] Economic and Monetary Policy Insights - Analysts warn of a potential market correction as the S&P 500 index closes below its 50-day moving average for the first time in 139 trading days, breaking a record for the second-longest period above this trend line in the century [4] - The Nasdaq also falls below its 50-day moving average, ending the longest streak since October 1995, with more stocks hitting 52-week lows than highs, indicating weak market internals [4] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious approach to further rate cuts, citing a softening job market and recent easing inflation risks [5] - UBS predicts a strong likelihood of a rate cut in December, despite internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve [6] Oil Market Forecast - Goldman Sachs warns of a continued decline in oil prices until 2026 due to a supply surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day, forecasting Brent crude at $56 per barrel and WTI at $52 per barrel by 2026 [7][8] Company-Specific Developments - Apple (AAPL.US) sees a 37% increase in iPhone 17 sales in China, regaining a 20% market share, indicating strong consumer response to new models [9] - Google (GOOGL.US) CEO warns of irrational factors in the current AI market, suggesting that no company, including Google, is immune to potential market corrections [9] - Arm (ARM.US) partners with Nvidia (NVDA.US) to integrate NVLink technology into its Neoverse platform, enhancing collaboration in AI data center chips [9] - Home Depot (HD.US) reports Q3 sales of $41.35 billion, with same-store sales growth of only 0.2%, below expectations [10] - Axalta (AXTA.US) announces a merger with AkzoNobel to create a $25 billion global coatings company, expected to complete by late 2026 or early 2027 [10] - Baidu (BIDU.US) reports Q3 revenue of 31.2 billion yuan, with AI-related business revenue growing over 50% [11] - Futu Holdings (FUTU.US) shows a significant increase in Q3 revenue by 86.3% year-on-year, with net profit up 136.9% [12] - Weibo (WB.US) reports a net profit of $454 million for Q3, a 55.43% increase year-on-year, despite a slight decline in total revenue [13]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is poised to achieve record data center revenue, driven by high demand for its GPUs and a significant order backlog of $500 billion for new chips over the next five quarters [1][6][12] Group 1: Financial Outlook - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang announced a $500 billion order book for the new Blackwell and Rubin GPUs, indicating strong future revenue potential [5][6] - The actual backlog figure is estimated to be closer to $307 billion, which is expected to be recognized over the next year [11] - Nvidia's data center division is now generating more than $30 billion in revenue quarterly, showcasing substantial growth compared to previous years [12][13] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of the order backlog, Nvidia's market capitalization surged to over $5 trillion [6] - Investors are optimistic about Nvidia's growth trajectory, which is expected to exceed Wall Street's current expectations [14][16] Group 3: Product Demand and Development - The demand for Nvidia's GPUs has created a virtuous cycle of sales and reinvestment into developing more powerful architectures [3][10] - Approximately 30% of the demand for Blackwell chips relates to units already shipped, meaning some revenue has already been recognized [10] Group 4: Investment Perspective - Nvidia's forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30 is considered reasonable given its robust sales pipeline and expanding profitability [16] - Nvidia is viewed as a compelling buy-and-hold opportunity for technology investors, suitable for long-term portfolios [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" and has been maintained from the previous rating [5] Core Insights - The rise of Scale-up architecture is driven by the increasing demand for high-speed interconnects due to the growth of large model parameters and the need for unified computing units formed by connecting multiple GPUs [1][13] - The Scale-up switch market is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of nearly $6 billion by 2025 and a 5-year CAGR of 26% from 2025 to 2030 [1][68] Summary by Sections Scale-up Supernodes: Breaking Through Single Card Computing Bottlenecks - The demand for larger parameter scales in large language models necessitates the expansion of computing clusters, which can significantly enhance model output accuracy and performance [13] - Cross-node communication requirements are heightened due to the use of tensor parallelism and expert parallelism technologies [17] Overview of Mainstream Supernode Systems - NVIDIA's GB200 NVL72 supernode connects 36 Grace CPUs and 72 NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs using NVLink technology, achieving high bandwidth and low latency [31][32] - Google's seventh-generation TPU Ironwood can scale up to 9216 chips, achieving peak performance of 4614 TFLOPS [35][36] - Amazon's Trainium2 server interconnects 64 chips through NeuronLink, ensuring low latency and high bandwidth communication [45][48] - Huawei's CloudMatrix384 supernode is designed for large-scale AI workloads, achieving 300 PFLOPS of BF16 computing power [49][52] Beneficiaries of Scale-up Network Demand - High-end switching chips and interface chips are expected to see increased demand due to the customized networks required for Scale-up architecture [3] - The integration of hardware and software in supernode systems is likely to enhance the value-added services of hardware manufacturers [56] - The demand for short-distance high-speed copper connections is strong, while optical interconnects are gradually being integrated into Scale-up networks [3] Focus Areas - Key companies to watch include: - Interconnect & Switching Chips: Sanken Communication, Lattice Semiconductor, and Wantong Development [4] - Network Equipment: ZTE, Ruijie Networks, and Unisplendour [4] - Optical Interconnect: Zhongji Xuchuang, New Easy, and Tianfu Communication [4] - Copper Interconnect: Ruikeda, Shenyu Co., and Wolker Materials [4]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues in Q3 2025 were $1.9 million, down from $2.4 million in Q3 2024, impacted by the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [10] - Gross margins decreased to 21% in Q3 2025 from 51% in Q3 2024, attributed to the composition of revenue and pricing variability [10] - Total operating expenses increased to $21 million in Q3 2025 from $18.6 million in the same period of the prior year, due to salary increases, new hires, and higher stock-based compensation [11] - GAAP net loss for Q3 2025 was higher than in Q3 2024, primarily due to a non-cash change in the fair value of derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities [12] - As of September 30, 2025, the company had approximately $558.9 million in cash and equivalents, with no debt, and this increased to approximately $600 million by November 6, 2025 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company announced purchase orders totaling approximately $5.7 million for two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems, which are upgradable [5] - A three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) was secured to advance superconducting quantum networking [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The expiration of the National Quantum Initiative and its pending reauthorization in the U.S. Congress impacted revenue, with future sales dependent on its renewal [10] - The company is engaged with various academic and government sectors to enhance quantum computing capabilities, including collaborations with Montana State University and the Center for Development of Advanced Computing [7][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to deliver a 150-plus qubit system by the end of 2026 and a 1,000-plus qubit system by the end of 2027, with anticipated gate fidelity improvements [4][5] - The strategy includes deepening support for quantum computing capabilities in academic and government sectors and integrating with NVIDIA's NVLink for AI supercomputer quantum integration [8] - The company plans to open an Italian subsidiary to accelerate business opportunities in the region [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about future sales from recent contracts and collaborations, which are expected to benefit revenue in Q4 2025 and into 2026 [10] - The management acknowledged challenges in achieving long-range coupling and error correction, which are critical for future milestones [17] - The company is optimistic about being selected for phase B of the DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative project in the coming months [18] Other Important Information - The company is exploring options for potential M&A to accelerate its roadmap, although it believes it can execute its current plans organically [47][48] - The company is considering significant capital expenditures for upgrading its chip fabrication facility in the future [56][60] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about DARPA phase B and the feedback received? - Management noted that while they were not selected for phase B, constructive feedback was received regarding error correction and long-range coupling, which are important for future milestones [16][17] Question: What is the comfort level for achieving 99% fidelity by 2027? - Management expressed confidence in achieving 99.8% fidelity with 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027, emphasizing the importance of error correction [20][22] Question: Will the 150-qubit and 1,000-qubit systems use chiplet-based approaches? - The company plans to use 9-qubit chiplets for the 150-qubit system and 36-qubit chiplets for the 1,000-qubit system [27] Question: How will revenue recognition work for the Novera system sales? - Revenue for the two Novera systems will be recognized upon shipment, expected in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 [31] Question: What is the expected gross margin profile moving forward? - Management indicated that while gross margins were lower in Q3, future sales, particularly from Novera, are expected to have better margins [64] Question: How does the recent funding for the National Quantum Initiative affect the business? - Management noted that the reinstatement of funding to $625 million over five years is a positive step, although discussions for higher funding amounts are ongoing [81][82]