on 06-Jan-2026 6 January 2026 Global Software, U.S. and China Internet Cloud in the Quarter: How did the hyperscalers do in 3Q25? Mark L. Moerdler, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8506 mark.moerdler@bernsteinsg.com Mark Shmulik +1 917 344 8508 mark.shmulik@bernsteinsg.com Robin Zhu +852 2123 2659 robin.zhu@bernsteinsg.com Firoz Valliji, CFA Lavnik Balyan +1 917 344 8563 lavnik.balyan@bernsteinsg.com Wenhuan Chang +1 917 344 8546 wenhuan.chang@bernsteinsg.com Charles Gou +852 2123 2618 charles.gou@bernsteinsg.com The hyper ...

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) is one of the most active US stocks to buy according to analysts. On December 15, Phillip Securities lowered the firm’s price target on Oracle to $344 from $350 and maintained a Buy rating on the shares. The firm raised its 2026 capital expenditure outlook for Oracle from $35 billion to $50 billion. The increased spending reflects the firm’s continued confidence in the company’s dual role as a specialized cloud provider/OCI and a comprehensive full-stack AI leader. Earlier ...

Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) is one of the AI Stocks Making Waves on Wall Street. On December 17, Citizens maintained its “Market Outperform” rating on the stock with a $342.00 price target. The firm remains confident in Oracle’s cloud business model, contract economics, and funding structure, despite ongoing debt-related concerns. Citizens highlighted the increasing cost of insuring Oracle debt and some general investor confusion surrounding its OCI business model. Even though the media has focused on ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 孔蓉 | 执业证书： S0590525110014 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱： | kongrong@glms.com.cn | 分析师 | 樊程安吉 | | 执业证书： S0590525110016 | 邮箱： | fanchenganji@glms.com.cn | | | 分析师 | 赵融 | 执业证书： S0590525120005 | | | 邮箱： | zhaorong@glms.com.cn | | | 相关研究 Oracle（ORCL）2026 财年第二季度业绩点评 RPO 维持高增长，关注后续收入转化情况 glmszqdatemark 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 品交付 ➢ Oracle 发布 FY26Q2 业绩。FY26Q2 总收入 161 亿美元，同比+13%，不及彭 博一致预期；经调整毛利率 67.8%，同比-4.7pcts，不及彭博一致预期；经调整 净利润 66 亿美元，同比+54%，超彭博一致预期，其中受到公司 ...

摩根大通认为，Q2财报的核心在于将"惊人的"长期RPO转化为近中期收入和现金流。备受关注的OpenAI协议一旦完全启动，每年可能贡献 数百亿美元收入。预计Q&A环节将聚焦于最大AI合约的集中度和持续时间，特别是有多少RPO余额与少数交易对手相关，相对于更广泛的AI 实验室、超大规模云服务商和大型企业客户群体。 在从年内高点暴跌40%后，甲骨文股价有望迎来反弹吗？摩根大通认为，前提是公司能在今夜发布的第二财季财报中展示稳健的云业务增 长，并对其庞大的剩余履约义务（RPO）余额提供更清晰的披露。 财报关键看点：连接长期合约与短期现金流 报告指出，Q2财报的核心在于将"惊人的"长期RPO转化为近中期收入和现金流。Q1业绩显示，甲骨文可以同时错过近期收入预期但交付非 凡的订单量，RPO同比增长数百个百分点，得益于数十亿美元的AI基础设施合约，包括 备受关注的OpenAI协议。该协议一旦完全启动，每 年可能贡献数百亿美元收入。 摩根大通预计Q&A环节将聚焦于最大AI合约的集中度和持续时间 ，特别是有多少RPO余额与少数交易对手相关，相对于更广泛的AI实验 室、超大规模云服务商和大型企业客户群体。 甲骨文已表示，大型AI ...

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's stock price has dropped 40% from its peak this year, and a rebound is contingent on the company's ability to demonstrate robust cloud business growth and provide clearer disclosures regarding its substantial remaining performance obligations (RPO) in the upcoming Q2 earnings report [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Oracle's stock fell 40% from September 10 to November 25, while the S&P 500 rose approximately 4%, driven by investor reassessment of the OpenAI project relative to Google's Gemini and concerns over the value of concentrated RPO balances [1]. - Analyst Mark Murphy believes that investor sentiment has swung too rapidly in both directions, lacking space for reasonable assessments of intermediate outcomes [3]. Group 2: Earnings Report Highlights - The key focus of the Q2 earnings report will be on converting significant long-term RPO into near-term revenue and cash flow, with Q1 performance showing a remarkable order volume despite missing recent revenue expectations [4]. - Oracle's RPO grew by hundreds of percentage points, attributed to multi-billion dollar AI infrastructure contracts, including the notable OpenAI agreement, which could contribute hundreds of billions in annual revenue once fully operational [4]. Group 3: Future Growth Projections - Oracle's ambitious 2030 target includes total revenue of approximately $225 billion, with OCI revenue exceeding $160 billion, alongside a medium double-digit revenue growth expectation for the 2026 bridging plan [5][6]. - In the last month of Q2, Oracle signed an additional $65 billion in RPO with various major clients, pushing total RPO above $500 billion, which alleviates concentration concerns and supports Oracle's positioning as a leading AI infrastructure provider [6]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow Challenges - Oracle plans to significantly increase capital expenditures to about $35 billion annually to support OCI and AI infrastructure development, which will pressure free cash flow relative to investor expectations [7]. - The success of the AI infrastructure strategy presents substantial revenue opportunities but also imposes heavier near-term balance sheet and cash flow burdens, leading to a reassessment of stock price based on the scale of obligations and customer concentration risks [7]. - Morgan Stanley maintains a "neutral" rating on Oracle with a target price of $270, reflecting a higher long-term trajectory for OCI, partially offset by pressured free cash flow forecasts [7].

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Energy has established a significant public-private partnership with Nvidia and Oracle to develop the Solstice AI supercomputers, marking a new collaborative model for technology deployment in critical sectors like energy and security [1] - This partnership reflects the ongoing AI boom, benefiting major tech stocks such as Nvidia and Oracle, which are well-positioned to meet the increasing demand for AI capabilities [2] - The collaboration is expected to drive growth in technology-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that include Nvidia and Oracle, as these companies are projected to thrive amid the AI expansion [3] Nvidia and Oracle's AI Strategy - A McKinsey survey indicates that 88% of organizations are using AI in at least one business function, up from 78% the previous year, suggesting that the current AI growth is just the beginning [4] - Goldman Sachs estimates that widespread AI adoption could contribute an additional $20 trillion to the U.S. economy, necessitating substantial computing power, which Nvidia and Oracle are positioned to provide [5] - Nvidia is leveraging its GPU technology, while Oracle is expanding its cloud infrastructure to support AI demands [6] Investment Commitments - Oracle has committed $300 billion over five years in an AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI, leading to a nearly 360% year-over-year increase in its remaining performance obligations [7] - Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI to develop infrastructure and data centers with a capacity of at least 10 gigawatts [8] Growth Potential for Tech ETFs - The convergence of AI adoption, corporate investment, and government involvement is setting the stage for significant growth in technology ETFs, particularly those with substantial holdings in Nvidia and Oracle [9] - The direct growth of these companies from AI advancements is expected to positively impact the ETFs that include their stocks, presenting a favorable opportunity for investors [10] ETF Performance Overview - **Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT)**: Net assets of $119 billion, with Nvidia at 17.15% and Oracle at 2.34% weightage; year-to-date surge of 25.5% [12] - **Fidelity MSCI Information Technology Index ETF (FTEC)**: Net assets of $17.41 billion, with Nvidia at 17.61% and Oracle at 2.02% weightage; year-to-date increase of 25.8% [13] - **Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK)**: Assets worth $95.1 billion, with Nvidia at 15.18% and Oracle at 3.11% weightage; year-to-date growth of 27.5% [14][15] - **Pacer Data and Digital Revolution ETF (TRFK)**: Net assets of $308.3 million, with Nvidia at 9.25% and Oracle at 8.67% weightage; year-to-date rise of 40.7% [16]

Core Insights - Oracle's stock has historically been volatile, experiencing significant declines in the past, including a drop of over 30% in less than two months in 2025, indicating susceptibility to sharp downturns [1] Market Position and Competition - Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) holds a 3% market share as of Q2 2025, significantly trailing behind AWS's 30%, which may hinder Oracle's long-term market dominance despite OCI's revenue growth of 54% to $3.3 billion in Q1 FY26 [2] - The rise of specialized data platforms like Snowflake, with a product revenue guidance of $4.395 billion for FY25, and Databricks, valued at over $100 billion, poses a challenge to Oracle's 9.7% share in the relational database market [2] Generative AI Landscape - The generative AI market is projected to be worth $62.72 billion in 2025, with Oracle reporting AI-driven remaining performance obligations (RPO) of $455 billion in Q1 FY26, yet competition is fierce as other companies rapidly innovate in AI-native platforms [3] Financial Performance - Oracle's revenue growth stands at 9.7% over the last twelve months and 10.2% over the last three years, with a free cash flow margin of nearly -10.0% and an operating margin of 31.6% [6] - The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 64.4, indicating a higher valuation compared to the S&P 500, alongside higher revenue growth and superior operating margins [6] Historical Risk Assessment - Historical data shows that Oracle has faced significant declines during market downturns, including a 77% drop during the Dot-Com Bubble and a 41% decline during the Global Financial Crisis, highlighting the company's vulnerability to market shifts despite strong fundamentals [7]

Core Thesis - Oracle is positioned as a strong investment opportunity for Q4, driven by impressive RPO growth and leadership changes [1][4]. Leadership and Management - The new co-CEOs, Mgherk and Cecilia, have effectively collaborated over the past decade, focusing on hardware and software stacks respectively, which has significantly contributed to the growth of Oracle's cloud and AI businesses [2][3]. Financial Performance and Projections - Oracle's RPO is expected to reach $500 billion in the next three to four years, with OCI revenue projected to grow 14 times, reflecting a 77% growth in OCI last quarter [3][4]. - Earnings growth is forecasted at 49% by 2028, indicating strong future performance [4]. Investment Strategy - The company is currently investing heavily in supply to meet high demand, which may lead to short-term margin pressures but is seen as a strategic move for long-term growth [4]. - The dividend growth is also a positive aspect for investors [5]. Revenue Concentration and Risks - There are concerns regarding revenue concentration from OpenAI, which is projected to generate $113 billion this year, but Oracle needs to secure additional revenue streams to mitigate risks [5][6]. - Upcoming analyst day is expected to provide more guidance and potentially announce significant new deals, which could diversify revenue sources and support growth [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - Oracle's cloud margins are expected to be lower than Wall Street predictions due to high costs associated with Nvidia chips and the capital-intensive nature of building data centers, raising concerns about long-term profitability [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Oracle's recent report indicated a significant backlog of cloud contracts, up 529%, which previously boosted the stock by as much as 40% [2] - The report highlighted a gross margin of approximately 14% on $900 million in sales, contrasting sharply with the historically high margins of 60-70% from Oracle's software business [10][9] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the visibility of Oracle's return on investment and long-term profitability, particularly in the next 6 to 12 months [3][7] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the report, Oracle's stock experienced a decline of 7%, although this was not seen as catastrophic given the stock's previous performance [11][12] - The market is increasingly questioning the sustainability of Oracle's growth and the realization of its large backlog, with skepticism about whether these deals will materialize as expected [13][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - Oracle World is set to take place in Las Vegas, where key executives will discuss the company's data center buildout and growth opportunities, which may address current profitability concerns [4][5] - The upcoming analyst day is anticipated to focus on financial questions regarding profitability and the duration of Oracle's partnership with OpenAI, which could significantly impact market perceptions [4]