Capital Markets 2026 Outlook Summary Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Capital Markets industry, specifically analyzing the performance and outlook for various segments including Alternative Asset Managers, Traditional Asset Managers, Brokers, Trust Banks, and Exchanges [2][8]. Key Themes and Insights Theme 1: Capital Markets Recovery - A significant recovery in Capital Markets is anticipated, particularly in M&A and Equity Capital Markets, with global announced M&A volumes increasing over 40% year-on-year in 2025 [28]. - IPO activity has also seen a meaningful re-acceleration, although both M&A and IPO volumes remain below cyclical averages, indicating potential for further growth [28][39]. - Companies such as CG, BX, TPG, and KKR are highlighted for their substantial earnings exposure to Capital Markets-sensitive revenues, estimated at 30%-40% of total revenues [29]. Theme 2: Interest Rates and Asset Growth - The Federal Reserve's funds rate is projected to decline to 3% by the end of 2026, with a steepening yield curve expected [6]. - Wealth Brokers and Trust Banks are anticipated to experience cash revenue and net interest income (NII) growth in 2026, driven by increased balances and lower asset sensitivity compared to previous cycles [6][15]. - Specific firms like RJF and SCHW are expected to outperform consensus estimates, with RJF projected to grow by 2% in 2026 and 7% in 2027 [6]. Theme 3: Alternative Managers' Growth - Alternative Asset Managers are expected to see management fee growth accelerate to a 16% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in 2026-2027, up from 11% in 2023-2025 [6][11]. - Growth is anticipated to broaden beyond Credit, with Private Equity and Real Estate showing signs of recovery, alongside continued strength in Infrastructure and AI sectors [6]. Theme 4: Traditional Managers' Outlook - Traditional Asset Managers are expected to see long-term organic growth accelerate to over 1% in 2026, with firms like AMG and BLK leading in organic base fee growth [7]. - Growth drivers include increased flows into Fixed Income, Active ETFs, and leveraging distribution capabilities for Private Markets strategies [7]. Theme 5: Exchange Volume Challenges - Exchanges are facing tough year-on-year volume comparisons, particularly in 2026, following record volumes in 2025 [7]. - However, sectors such as Energy and Equities are expected to deliver meaningful volume growth, supported by retail investor participation and recovery in IPO markets [7][14]. Additional Insights - The report indicates a positive outlook for Trust Banks, with firms like BK and STT expected to benefit from accelerating deposit growth and favorable NII outlooks [15]. - The report emphasizes the importance of expense management and capital returns in driving EPS growth across various segments [15][12]. - Despite a challenging environment, select areas within the Capital Markets are expected to see structural growth, particularly in newer product areas like event contracts and prediction markets [16]. Conclusion - The Capital Markets industry is poised for a recovery driven by improving financial conditions, increased M&A and IPO activity, and growth in alternative and traditional asset management sectors. The outlook remains broadly constructive, with specific firms identified as key beneficiaries of these trends [2][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has raised margin requirements primarily due to market volatility, aiming to protect clearinghouses and ensure system stability during price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Margin Requirement Adjustments - The CME regularly reviews margin requirements to ensure traders can meet obligations during significant price movements [1] - The decision to raise margins is intended to safeguard the clearinghouse and maintain robustness under volatile conditions [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Analysts report that the margin increase has led to large-scale trading and forced liquidations at the New York Mercantile Exchange, resulting in a surge in trading volume [1] - This surge in trading activity may temporarily boost CME's revenue [1] Group 3: Trader Sentiment - Some traders criticize the CME's actions as an attempt to suppress prices [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring the impact of margin increases on market behavior, with concerns that it may dampen trading interest and negatively affect long-term participation in the precious metals market [1]

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or a ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of exchanges will be shaped by increased volatility, supportive U.S. economic policies, higher acceptance of digital assets, and increased retail trading, with a focus on comparing Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and CME Group (CME) for long-term growth potential [1] Group 1: Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) - Coinbase is strategically positioned to benefit from President Trump's pro-crypto stance and aims to transform into an "everything exchange" offering a comprehensive range of financial services [3] - The company is expanding its product ecosystem, including enabling Solana on Base, launching decentralized exchange trading, and introducing new offerings like prediction markets and tokenized equities [4][5] - Coinbase's strategy extends beyond trading, promoting stablecoins for online payments and collaborating with Kalshi for prediction markets, reflecting efforts to diversify revenue streams [5][6] - The company is acquiring The Clearing Company to strengthen its presence in prediction markets, marking its tenth acquisition this year [6] - Coinbase has deepened integration with traditional finance by partnering with major institutions and discussing pilot programs for stablecoins and crypto trading services [7] - Despite facing profitability pressure from high operating costs and market volatility, Coinbase's expanding ecosystem and improving regulatory outlook support a long-term growth narrative [8] Group 2: CME Group (CME) - CME Group is the largest futures exchange globally, benefiting from a strong global presence, compelling product portfolio, and focus on over-the-counter clearing services [2] - The company supports global risk management across various asset classes, including digital assets, and is well-positioned for long-term growth through ongoing product innovation [10] - CME is experiencing rising electronic trading volumes and growing adoption of crypto-related products, supported by a favorable regulatory environment under President Trump [11] - The company's ability to grow organically and benefit from heightened market volatility translates into higher trading volumes and revenues [12] - CME's strong network effects and disciplined cost management enhance margins, allowing for regular capital returns through dividends and share repurchases [14] - However, CME faces concentration risk as interest rate and equity products account for a significant portion of revenues, and increasing competition from crypto platforms poses challenges [15] Group 3: Financial Estimates and Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN's 2025 revenues implies a 13.5% year-over-year increase, while EPS is expected to rise 4.7% [16] - In contrast, CME's 2025 revenues are projected to increase by 5.1%, but EPS is expected to decline by 4.3% [18] - COIN shares have lost 3.5% year-to-date, while CME shares have rallied 19% in the same period [21] - Coinbase is trading at a forward P/E multiple of 40.6, lower than its median of 46.1, while CME's forward P/E is at 23.8, higher than its median of 22.4 [22] Group 4: Conclusion - Coinbase benefits from a diversified revenue base, including trading fees, staking, custodial services, and derivatives, driven by growing institutional demand [23] - CME Group is well-positioned for growth through its efforts to expand futures products, diversify derivative offerings, and maintain a strong liquidity position [24]

Core Insights - Bitget has launched a significant upgrade to its mobile application, providing a unified interface for 120 million users to access cryptocurrency, tokenized stocks, on-chain assets, and traditional financial markets [2][12] Group 1: Application Upgrade - The updated application features a consolidated market overview, allowing users to view various asset categories without switching pages, thus reducing operational friction when managing diversified portfolios [5][11] - The stock section has been redesigned for clearer market context and faster decision-making, supporting over 100 on-chain stock tokens and more than 30 mainstream stock futures [6][11] Group 2: Trading Features - Users can trade forex currency pairs, precious metals, commodities, and major indices using USDT as margin, with leverage options up to 500 times for certain tools [11] - The upgrade aims to simplify the trading process across cryptocurrency, tokenized stocks, and traditional markets, addressing fragmentation in modern trading workflows [11][12] Group 3: Strategic Vision - The latest upgrade aligns with Bitget's UEX strategy, focusing on unified access across asset classes, continuous market availability, and capital efficiency [12] - Bitget continues to enhance its multi-asset trading infrastructure, with plans for further feature upgrades and market expansion [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Bitget, the world's largest panoramic exchange (UEX), has launched a comprehensive mobile app upgrade aimed at enhancing multi-asset trading experiences for its 120 million users [2]. Group 1: App Upgrade Features - The updated app introduces a unified interface that allows users to access cryptocurrencies, tokenized stocks, on-chain assets, and traditional financial markets through a single navigation process [2][5]. - Users can now view asset performance metrics, portfolio values, and market snapshots in a consolidated layout, reducing operational friction when managing diversified portfolios across multiple markets [5]. - The stock section has been redesigned to provide clearer market context and faster decision-making support, allowing direct access to industry-based views, real-time price changes, trending stock themes, and an integrated earnings calendar [5]. Group 2: Trading Capabilities - The platform currently supports over 100 types of on-chain stock tokens and more than 30 mainstream stock futures, enabling users to trade shares of leading global companies like Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and Alphabet using USDT without traditional brokerage account requirements [5]. - A flexible margin model and leverage of up to 25 times support various trading strategies while ensuring consistent capital management across asset classes [5]. - The newly introduced TradFi section allows users to trade forex currency pairs, precious metals, commodities, oil, and major indices using USDT as margin, with leverage options up to 500 times [9]. Group 3: Strategic Goals and Future Plans - This upgrade aligns with Bitget's UEX strategy, which focuses on unified access across asset classes, continuous market availability, and capital efficiency [10]. - As Bitget continues to enhance its multi-asset trading infrastructure, further feature upgrades and market expansions are expected in the future [10].

Sberbank is exploring crypto-secured lending as Russia’s financial sector accelerates its push into digital assets ahead of the country’s mid-2026 regulatory deadline. Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov told TASS the bank stands ready to collaborate with regulators on developing infrastructure for such services, potentially expanding Russia’s crypto ecosystem beyond trading into collateralized finance. The announcement builds on Sberbank’s broader digital asset strategy, which has already produced over 160 t ...

Company Performance - CBOE has experienced relative underperformance compared to other exchanges and the financial sector despite strong earnings [2][4] - The stock's underperformance may be attributed to full positioning and market sentiment rather than a specific identifiable reason [4][5] - Morgan Stanley has reiterated an underweight rating on CBOE, indicating a cautious outlook [5] Market Outlook - The environment for CBOE is expected to improve in 2026, with a belief that volatility will increase significantly even in a bull market [3][5] - The current VIX is near a low for the year, below 15, suggesting potential for increased market activity [2] Comparisons with Other Companies - CME Group and NASDAQ have received reiterated overweight ratings, with target prices set at 320 and 111 respectively, indicating a more favorable outlook compared to CBOE [6] - Schwab's performance is driven by different factors, such as cash balance sweeps, and is not directly comparable to the exchanges like NASDAQ and CME [6][7] - NASDAQ is highlighted as a strong performer benefiting from IPOs and increased trading activity, positioning it as a "crown jewel" among the group [8]

Core Viewpoint - Cboe Global Markets congratulates Michael Selig on his confirmation as Chairman of the CFTC, emphasizing his experience and balanced regulatory approach as vital for the evolving derivatives markets [1] Group 1: Company Response - Cboe expresses eagerness to collaborate with the CFTC to enhance market resilience and improve the investor experience [1] - The company acknowledges the leadership of Acting Chairman Caroline Pham and wishes her success in future endeavors [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Cboe Global Markets is recognized as the world's leading derivatives and securities exchange network, providing advanced trading, clearing, and investment solutions globally [2] - The company offers trading solutions across various asset classes, including equities, derivatives, and FX in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific [2] - Cboe is committed to fostering a trusted and inclusive global marketplace for sustainable financial futures [2]

Core Insights - Nasdaq raised a total of $46.65 billion from new listings in 2025, marking the highest capital raised since 2021 [1][5] - 22 companies transferred their corporate listings to Nasdaq in 2025, including Walmart, representing the largest exchange transfer in history with a total market value of $1.2 trillion [1][5] Capital Market Performance - 2025 was a significant year for public markets, with companies at various stages choosing Nasdaq for its global visibility and commitment to innovation and growth [2] - Nasdaq's European markets contributed to over half of all capital raised in Europe in 2025, including the public debut of Verisure, Europe's largest IPO since 2022 [5] Notable Listings - Major listings included Medline, which was the largest overall IPO and healthcare IPO of the year, raising over $6 billion, and CoreWeave, the largest AI IPO of the year [5] Listing Transfers - Since 2005, Nasdaq has attracted more than 500 listing transfers, representing over $4 trillion in market value [5] Strategic Initiatives - Nasdaq announced plans to launch Nasdaq Texas, a dual listing venue aimed at expanding services for companies in Texas and creating new growth opportunities for U.S. investors [5] - Nasdaq is actively involved in regulatory reform, hosting discussions with leaders from the public and private market ecosystem to address challenges and opportunities in the public market [5]