2026 年 02 月 26 日 香港交易所（00388.HK） 买入（维持评级） 港股公司点评 证券研究报告 业绩略超预期，多市场成交额创新高 业绩简评 2026 年 2 月 26 日，香港交易所发布 2025 年业绩报告。2025 香港 交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61 亿港元，同比增 长 30%；归母净利润 177.54 亿港元，同比增长 36%。25Q4 归母净 利润 43.35 亿港元，同比增长 15%，环比减少 12%，主要是因为 25Q4 交投活跃度小幅降低。分业务条线来看，2025 现货、衍生品、商 品 、 数 据 及 连 接 、 公 司 项 目 收 入 同 比 增 速 分 别 为 56%/11%/14%/7%/17%，占营收比重分别为 50%/24%/11%/8%/7%。分 收费模式来看，交易及交易系统使用费、联交所上市费、结算及 交收费、存管托管及代理人服务费、市场数据费、投资收益同比 增 速 分 别 为 44%/21%/49%/31%/8%/4% ， 占 营 收 比 重 分 别 为 35%/6%/24%/5%/4%/18%。 经营分析 交易费：（1）现货市场：2025 年 ...

【国金非银】港交所2025：业绩略超预期，各市场多项成交额创历史新高 业绩概况：2025年香港交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61亿港元，同比增长30%；归母净利润177.54 亿港元，同比增长36%。 25Q4归母净利润43.35亿港元，同比增长15%，环比减少12%，主要是因为25Q4交投活跃度环比小幅降低。 分业务条线来看，2025现货、衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目 【国金非银】港交所2025：业绩略超预期，各市场多项成交额创历史新高 业绩概况：2025年香港交易所实现营业收入（收入及其他收益）291.61亿港元，同比增长30%；归母净利润177.54 亿港元，同比增长36%。 25Q4归母净利润43.35亿港元，同比增长15%，环比减少12%，主要是因为25Q4交投活跃度环比小幅降低。 分业务条线来看，2025现货、衍生品、商品、数据及连接、公司项目收入同比增速分别为56%/11%/14%/7%/17%， 占营收比重分别为50%/24%/11%/8%/7%。 分收费模式来看，交易及交易系统使用费、联交所上市费、结算及交收费、存管托管及代理人服务费、市场数据 费、投资收益同比增速分别为 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) for 2025 and 2026, introducing a profit estimate of HKD 17.9 billion for 2027, with a target price of HKD 500, indicating a potential upside of 12.6% based on current P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For Q4 2025, CICC predicts a year-on-year profit decline of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24% [2] - Total revenue for Q4 2025 is expected to increase by 4% year-on-year but decrease by 15% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 6.61 billion, with core business revenue projected to rise by 13% year-on-year but fall by 13% quarter-on-quarter to HKD 5.81 billion [2] - Full-year total revenue is forecasted to grow by 27% to HKD 28.46 billion, with profit expected to increase by 31% to HKD 17.15 billion [2] Group 2: Trading Activity - In Q4 2025, the average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks is expected to be HKD 229.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [2] - Southbound ADT is projected to rise by 35% year-on-year to HKD 105.7 billion, while northbound ADT is expected to remain flat year-on-year at HKD 231.1 billion [2] - Derivatives trading is anticipated to see a slight decline, with overall ADV down by 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter to 1.61 million contracts [2] Group 3: Investment Income - CICC forecasts a significant drop in investment income for Q4 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 35% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 25% [3] - The decline in investment income is attributed to reduced margin investment returns and external investment redemptions, alongside changes in margin interest rebate policies [3] Group 4: Long-term Value and Market Dynamics - The average daily trading for Hong Kong stocks has reached HKD 267.6 billion since the beginning of the year, indicating a 7% increase compared to the full year of 2025 [4] - CICC notes that for every HKD 10 billion increase in ADT in 2026, the year-on-year profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points [4] - The valuation trends of HKEX have historically aligned with the Hang Seng Index, but since September, HKEX has underperformed the index by 11 percentage points [4]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the earnings forecast for Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) for 2025 and 2026, introducing a profit estimate of HKD 17.9 billion for 2027, with a target price of HKD 500, implying an upside of 12.6% based on current P/E ratios [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast - For Q4 2025, earnings are expected to decline by 1% year-on-year and 24% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue projected to increase by 27% year-on-year to HKD 28.46 billion and profit expected to rise by 31% to HKD 17.15 billion [2] Group 2: Trading Activity - Trading activity in the cash and derivatives markets is expected to show a marginal decline, with Q4 2025 cash market average daily turnover (ADT) projected at HKD 229.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20% [3] - The number of IPOs completed in Q4 is expected to be 48, with total financing amounting to HKD 97.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 201% [3] Group 3: Investment Performance - Investment income is anticipated to decline by 35% year-on-year and 25% quarter-on-quarter due to a decrease in margin investment returns and external redemptions [4] Group 4: Long-term Value - The company emphasizes the dual resonance of "assets + funds" for long-term investment value, noting that if the cash market ADT increases by HKD 10 billion in 2026, the profit growth rate could increase by 2.4 percentage points [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The non-bank sector has shown overall weak performance this week, with the securities sector experiencing a decline. However, recent policy developments from the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC) and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) are expected to support high-quality development in the capital market [2][4] - The insurance sector is expected to see improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation recovery, driven by trends such as the migration of deposits and increased allocation to equities. The overall cost-effectiveness of the sector is gradually improving, indicating a potential revaluation [2][4] - Recommendations include stable profit growth and dividend rates from companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, as well as companies with strong market positions such as New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges, CITIC Securities, and others [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.6% this week, with a year-to-date performance of -0.1%, ranking 28 out of 31 sectors [5] - The average daily trading volume in the market increased to 34,650.61 billion yuan, up 21.50% week-on-week, with a daily turnover rate of 3.37%, up 59.41 basis points [5] Key Industry News - The CBIRC and CSRC held meetings to discuss regulatory work for 2026, and the CSRC released a draft for the supervision of derivative trading [6] - Companies such as GF Securities and Huatai Securities have made significant announcements regarding refinancing and capital increases [6] Insurance Sector Insights - The cumulative insurance premium income for November 2025 reached 57,629 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.56%, with life insurance premiums growing by 9.06% [21][22] - The total assets of insurance companies as of November 2025 were 40.65 trillion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.15% [25][26] Brokerage and Investment Business - The brokerage business is recovering, with a notable increase in trading volumes and margin financing balances, indicating a gradual improvement in profitability [38][45] - The investment business remains under scrutiny, with fluctuations in equity and bond markets impacting self-operated income for brokerages [42] Financing and Asset Management - In December 2025, equity financing reached 663.12 billion yuan, a 30.9% increase, while bond financing was 7.34 trillion yuan, up 4.0% [49] - The issuance of collective asset management products saw a significant rise, indicating a recovery phase for the asset management sector [51]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has drafted the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial)" to promote the healthy development of the derivatives market, aligning with national policies and legal frameworks [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The draft specifies the scope of application, stating that all derivative transactions and related activities under CSRC's jurisdiction are subject to these measures [2]. - It outlines the functions of the derivatives market, emphasizing risk management, resource allocation, and support for the real economy [2]. - The draft includes provisions for the development conditions and procedures for derivative contracts, basic trading rules, and performance guarantee systems [2]. Group 2: Market Management and Oversight - The draft enhances monitoring and cross-market regulation of derivatives, establishing prohibitive and restrictive requirements for trading activities [2][3]. - It emphasizes the need for comprehensive regulation, covering both on-exchange and over-the-counter derivatives markets to avoid regulatory overlaps [3]. - The draft sets stricter compliance and professional capability requirements for derivative operating institutions, which may increase compliance costs in the short term but is expected to lead to industry consolidation in the long run [4]. Group 3: Industry Impact - The measures are designed to guide the domestic derivatives market from a rough development phase to a high-quality development stage, promoting fairness and transparency [4]. - The focus on risk management and asset allocation is expected to shift the business priorities of institutions towards serving the real economy [4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has drafted the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Trading (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" to enhance regulation and oversight of the derivative trading market [1] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - All participants in derivative trading must adhere to principles of fairness, voluntariness, compensation, and good faith, prohibiting market manipulation, insider trading, and other illegal activities [1] - The CSRC will improve the monitoring and control system for the derivative market based on a prudent regulatory principle and may implement counter-cyclical management for derivative trading [1] Group 2: Industry Responsibilities - Derivative industry associations, trading venues, and clearing institutions are required to take proactive measures to maintain reasonable levels of leverage and scale in the market [1] - There is an emphasis on enhancing the standardization of derivative trading practices within the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has drafted the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial) (Draft for Comments)" to promote the healthy development of the derivatives market in accordance with national policies and laws [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The draft specifies that it applies to derivative trading venues and institutions regulated by the CSRC, excluding the interbank derivatives market and over-the-counter derivatives organized by banking and insurance institutions [2][4]. - It emphasizes the role of the derivatives market in managing risks, allocating resources, and serving the real economy, encouraging hedging activities while limiting excessive speculation [2][4]. Group 2: Key Provisions - The draft outlines basic principles that all parties involved in derivative trading must adhere to [2][4]. - It details the conditions and procedures for developing derivative contracts [2][4]. - Basic trading rules for derivative contracts are clearly defined [2][4]. - A performance guarantee system is established to ensure contract fulfillment [2][4]. - Standards for the suitability of traders are specified [2][4]. - Enhanced monitoring and cross-market regulation of derivatives are mandated [2][4]. - Prohibitive and restrictive requirements for derivative trading are clarified [2][4]. - Increased regulatory oversight of derivative operating institutions is emphasized [2][4]. - Strengthened regulation of derivatives market infrastructure is outlined [2][4]. - The draft specifies supervisory management and legal responsibilities [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is advancing the implementation of the "Futures and Derivatives Law" by soliciting public opinions on the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial)" to promote the standardized and healthy development of the derivatives market [2][3] Group 1: Regulatory Framework - The CSRC released a draft of the "Supervision and Management Measures for Derivative Transactions (Trial)" consisting of 57 articles, which regulate derivative trading, settlement, traders, and operating institutions [2] - The "Futures and Derivatives Law" was enacted in August 2022, incorporating derivative trading into the legal framework and establishing foundational systems such as single agreements and termination netting [2] - The recent draft aims to further refine the rules for derivative trading and enhance the requirements for operating institutions regarding risk management and compliance [2][3] Group 2: Market Development - The measures support the steady development of the derivatives market, emphasizing its role in risk management, resource allocation, and serving the real economy [3] - The CSRC encourages the use of derivatives for hedging and managing risks, while also imposing legal restrictions on excessive speculation [3] - Derivative operating institutions are required to integrate derivative trading into their overall risk management, accurately identifying and responding to various risks such as credit, market, liquidity, and operational risks [3]

Core Insights - A critical data center used by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) experienced overheating issues, leading to over 10 hours of service interruption, which affected U.S. stock index futures and options trading [1][2] - The incident highlights the risks associated with the concentration of trading platforms in the digital economy [1] Group 1: Incident Details - The data center, located in Aurora, Illinois, faced a cooling equipment failure that caused temperatures to rise to nearly 49 degrees Celsius, exceeding the industry standard maximum temperature by approximately 48% [1] - The data center is operated by CyrusOne, based in Dallas, Texas, which apologized for the service interruption and stated that engineers were dispatched for repairs and temporary cooling solutions [1] Group 2: Market Impact - CME processes an average of $1.5 trillion in futures and options trading related to stock indices daily, along with $9.6 trillion in interest rate-related speculative trading [2] - In October, the average daily derivatives trading contracts reached 26.3 million [2] Group 3: Expert Opinions - A Georgetown University finance professor described CME as a "single point of failure," indicating that such incidents could halt the entire system [2] - An investment banking strategist noted that this event serves as a delayed reminder of the importance and interconnectivity of market structures [2]