Group 1: UnitedHealth Group - UnitedHealth Group operates the largest private health insurer in the U.S. and a health services platform called Optum, which provides various healthcare services [2] - The company anticipates losing up to 2.8 million members due to increased rates in response to rising medical costs [2] - The stock recently dropped 20% following Q4 results, attributed to a rising medical care ratio (MCR) of 91.5%, the highest since last year's cost spike [3] - A proposed 0.09% increase for 2027 Medicare Advantage rates was below industry expectations, adding to uncertainty [3] - Despite challenges, the company maintains a safe 3.2% dividend, supported by $16 billion in free cash flow, funding the payout nearly twice over [4] - Management expects earnings per share (EPS) growth of around 8.5% this year, with the stock trading at 15.5 times next year's earnings target of $17.75 per share [4] Group 2: Ryman Hospitality Properties - Ryman Hospitality Properties is a REIT that owns large-scale convention resorts and iconic country music venues, including five of the seven largest non-gaming convention hotels in the U.S. [5] - In Q3, Ryman reported a 15.5% drop in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per unit due to planned renovations, a shift to lower-margin groups, and increased cancellations [7] - Bookings are up nearly 8% for the year, and the stock offers a 4.8% yield with a 57% payout ratio, producing nearly double the cash needed for its dividend [8] - Shares trade at just 12 times AFFO per unit expectations for fiscal year 2025, providing compelling exposure to the growing country music scene in Nashville [8] Group 3: ONEOK - ONEOK has transformed from a regional NGL business into a fully integrated platform through three major deals worth over $25 billion, creating a 60,000-mile network for transporting gas and crude [9] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 37% year over year to $2.1 billion in Q3, driven by contributions from EnLink and Medallion assets, as well as higher processing volumes [10] - The stock is up nearly 15% over the past month, trading at just 11 times EBITDA with a yield of 5.1% [11] - Current spending on integration and pipeline repairs keeps free cash flow payout around 100%, but this is expected to improve as major projects complete this year [11]

Core Insights - Humana's leadership expressed confidence in membership growth and emphasized a strategy focused on maximizing customer lifetime value through sustainable pricing and strong retention rather than loss leader plans [1] - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25, and indicated that higher-than-planned investments were made to accelerate transformation [3][6] - Humana anticipates a significant earnings headwind related to Stars, estimated at approximately $3.5 billion for 2026, guiding to at least $9 adjusted EPS for that year [5][10] Membership Growth and Retention - Humana added approximately 1 million Medicare Advantage members, representing a 20% increase during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP), with retention improving by over 500 basis points year over year [5][7] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage membership growth of around 25% in 2026, supported by a favorable sales mix with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [5][9] Financial Performance and Guidance - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was reported at 90.4%, slightly better than guidance, which included a benefit set aside for a potential "Doc Fix" in 2025 [2] - Humana's initial guidance for 2026 reflects a conservative approach due to a dynamic environment, with expectations of a doubling of individual Medicare Advantage pre-tax margins when normalizing for Stars [10] Operational Efficiency and Cost Management - Management expects significant improvement in consolidated operating costs ratio in 2026, driven by operating leverage from membership growth and tactical cost-cutting efforts [13] - The company is focused on capital efficiency through optimizing legal structures and managing capital deployment, expecting debt-to-capital levels to remain largely flat year over year [14] Strategic Initiatives and Leadership Changes - Humana is expanding its Medicaid services across 13 states and anticipates announcing a strategic acquisition in the primary care space [15] - Aaron Martin joined Humana as President of Medicare Advantage, expected to elevate to the president of insurance role upon the retirement of the current president [18]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [17] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [18] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a stars headwind [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company experienced approximately 1 million member growth, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [8] - Retention rate improved by over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [9] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [9] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy, focusing on maximizing customer lifetime value and member retention [6] - Plans are designed to be priced for sustainable margins, moving away from loss leader strategies [8] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and maintain quality care for members [10] - The company is adapting to the funding environment and expects to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [15] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by the Advance Rate Notice but emphasized a commitment to protect consumers [15] Other Important Information - The company is focused on capital efficiency and plans to fund membership growth and strategic acquisitions while maintaining credit ratings [24] - A new President of Medicare Advantage, Aaron Martin, joined the company, bringing extensive healthcare experience [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [30] Question: How is the typical progress of margins for new members over time? - Management noted that margins typically improve significantly from year one to year two, with ongoing improvements expected in subsequent years [35] Question: What are the expectations for 2026 compared to Investor Day? - Management highlighted that the biggest difference is the embedded conservatism in their numbers, leading to a broader haircut in guidance [45] Question: How did the D-SNP membership growth compare to expectations? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [48] Question: What is the impact of the stars headwind on margins? - Management explained that the stars headwind affects both new and existing members, with similar margins expected for both cohorts [32] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated that they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [17] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [18] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a $3.5 billion headwind from Stars [19][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew by approximately 1 million members, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [8] - Retention rate improved by over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [9] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [9] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy and aims to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [5][6] - Focus areas include product and experience, clinical excellence, operational efficiency, and capital allocation [6] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and emphasized the importance of maintaining quality care for members [10] - The company is aware of the fiscal pressures on Medicare Advantage and is prepared to adapt to the funding environment [15] - Management remains optimistic about achieving top quartile Stars results by 2028 [12] Other Important Information - The company plans to announce a strategic acquisition in the primary care space [14] - Aaron Martin joined the company as President of Medicare Advantage, bringing extensive healthcare experience [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [30] Question: How do you estimate the progress of new members' margins over time? - Management expects substantial margin improvement in the first year due to reduced marketing load and improved medical benefit ratios [35] Question: What are the expectations for D-SNP membership growth? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [48] Question: How did expectations for 2026 change since Investor Day? - The primary difference is the embedded conservatism in the guidance, reflecting known headwinds and tailwinds [45] Question: What is the impact of the Stars headwind on margins? - The Stars headwind for 2026 is approximately $3.5 billion, affecting both individual and group MA margins [21] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels [59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EPS of $17.14 for 2025, exceeding initial guidance of approximately $16.25 [16] - The full-year insurance segment benefit ratio was 90.4%, slightly better than guidance [17] - For 2026, the company expects full-year adjusted EPS of at least $9, with a year-over-year decline anticipated due to a stars headwind [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company grew by approximately 1 million members, or 20%, during the Annual Enrollment Period (AEP) [6] - Retention rate improved over 500 basis points year-over-year, with over 70% of new sales coming from switches from competitor plans [6][8] - The company expects individual Medicare Advantage (MA) membership growth of approximately 25% for full year 2026 [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company absorbed approximately 12% of members impacted by competitor plan exits, which is less than its market share [7] - Nearly 30% of new sales were bounce-back members, indicating a positive mix of new sales [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to a consumer-centric strategy that adapts to the funding environment to unlock earnings potential by 2028 [4] - Focus areas include maximizing customer lifetime value, clinical excellence, operational efficiency, and capital allocation [5] - The company is expanding its Medicaid and CenterWell footprint, with Medicaid now spanning 13 states [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the operational capacity to absorb growth and emphasized the importance of maintaining quality care for members [9] - The company is aware of the fiscal pressures on Medicare Advantage and is committed to protecting consumers while adapting to the funding environment [13] - Management expects to continue making progress on stars performance and adapting to the final rate notice [13] Other Important Information - The company announced the appointment of Aaron Martin as President of Medicare Advantage, who will elevate to the president of insurance role upon George's retirement [14] - The company is focused on maintaining a stable and compelling MA margin while unlocking earnings potential by 2028 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you expand on the level of earnings outside of MA underwriting? - Management indicated that earnings associated with CenterWell will contribute positively, with significant tailwinds expected from new membership [27] Question: How do you estimate the margin progression for new members? - Management expects substantial margin improvement in the first year due to lower marketing loads and improved medical benefit ratios over time [33] Question: What are the expectations for D-SNP membership growth? - The absolute number of new D-SNP members exceeded expectations, although the percentage growth was slightly lower [46] Question: How will the company adjust to the rate notice? - Management stated that they will adapt to the final rate notice and advocate for appropriate funding levels for members [56] Question: What is the company's strategy regarding membership growth versus margin? - The focus is on achieving the right long-term margin profile while retaining as many members as possible, rather than solely pursuing new member growth [87]

Market Overview - US equity futures are flat, with S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures both up 0.1% as the market anticipates weaker payroll data following a Retail Sales miss and weaker high-frequency data [1] - International markets show mixed trends, with Japan closed, KOSPI up 1%, and HSI up 0.3%, while European markets are mostly flat to down [1] - Commodities are moving higher, led by silver, with crude oil prices quietly rising [1] Company Performance - In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mixed, with Nvidia up 0.6% and Tesla down 0.2% [3] - Astera Labs falls 11% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter results and announcing the retirement of its CFO [3] - Beta Technologies climbs 18% after Amazon disclosed a stake in the electric aircraft manufacturer [3] - Centrus Energy falls 8% as its fourth-quarter earnings per share missed analyst estimates due to higher-than-expected capex spending [3] - Cloudflare gains 14% after beating fourth-quarter expectations and providing a bullish revenue forecast [3] - Humana falls 6% after forecasting full-year profit below Wall Street expectations, raising concerns about the US health-insurance industry [3] - Kraft Heinz drops 6% after pausing its planned separation as the new CEO seeks to improve results [3] - Lyft falls 17% after issuing a disappointing forecast that missed Wall Street expectations [3] - Mattel slumps 26% after its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast missed analyst estimates, leading to a downgrade at JPMorgan [3] - Moderna falls 10% after US regulators refused to review its novel mRNA flu vaccine [3] - Rapid7 declines 22% after a disappointing outlook, with analysts citing weakness in annual recurring revenue [3] Earnings Reports - Out of 326 S&P 500 companies that have reported, 78% have beaten analyst forecasts, while 17% have missed [11] - T-Mobile, Shopify, and Kraft Heinz are among companies expected to report before the market opens [11] Economic Indicators - Analysts expect January's payrolls report to show 65,000 job additions, with a whisper number of 35,000, amid expectations of a significant downward revision of 750,000 to 900,000 jobs through March 2025 [4][25] - The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4% [25] - The market is currently pricing in two or three Fed rate cuts this year, with a growing probability of a cut by April [5][38]

Corporate Earnings and Strategic Shifts - Ford is expecting a reduction in tariff costs of approximately $1.0 billion in 2026 while reporting Q4 charges of about $13.8 billion related to its evolving electric vehicle (EV) strategy and the anticipated disposition of its BOSK investment [2][9] - Humana reported an adjusted loss per share of -$3.96 for Q425, which was better than the estimated -$4.01, but its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of at least $9 fell short of the analyst consensus of $11.87 [3][9] - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. achieved a net income of $298 million in Q4, with diluted EPS at $1.27 and adjusted EPS of $2.08, exceeding analysts' expectations of $2.02, while revenue reached $3,087 million [4][9] Market Dynamics and M&A Activity - QXO is set to acquire Kodiak Building Partners for approximately $2.25 billion, which is expected to significantly expand QXO's addressable market to over $200 billion and be highly accretive to its 2026 earnings [5][9] Commodity Markets - Spot Silver experienced a notable intraday surge of 6.00%, trading at $85.57/oz, indicating ongoing volatility and investor interest in precious metals [6][9]

Core Insights - Humana has forecasted annual profit below Wall Street estimates due to anticipated impacts from lower quality ratings for its Medicare Advantage plans targeting older adults [1] Company Summary - Humana is facing challenges with its Medicare Advantage plans, which are expected to receive lower quality ratings, leading to a negative impact on profitability [1]

Core Insights - Humana Inc. reported consolidated pretax results and net earnings per share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full year of 2025, comparing them to the same periods in 2024 [1] Financial Performance - The consolidated (loss) income before income taxes and equity in net losses for 4Q25 and FY 2025 was detailed in the report, indicating a comparison with 4Q24 and FY 2024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oscar Health's stock rose nearly 2% due to unexpectedly optimistic guidance for the fourth quarter, despite missing analyst estimates on trailing results [1] Financial Performance - Oscar's total revenue for Q4 2025 was $2.8 billion, reflecting a 17% increase from the previous year [2] - The company's net loss deepened to approximately $353 million ($1.24 per share) from a loss of nearly $154 million in Q4 2024 [2] Analyst Expectations - Analysts had projected Oscar to perform better, with average revenue estimates at $3.1 billion and a net loss estimate of $0.89 per share [4] Membership Growth - Oscar reported a significant increase in membership, with total members exceeding 2 million, up from under 1.7 million in the same period last year [4] Future Outlook - The company provided a bullish full-year revenue guidance of $18.7 billion to $19 billion, with operational earnings projected between $250 million and $450 million [7] - This revenue projection is significantly higher than the consensus analyst estimate of under $12.8 billion [8]