Schiff isn’t the only one sounding the alarm. Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, has warned of a potential “debt death spiral” — where the government must borrow simply to cover interest — and what he calls “a breaking down of the monetary order.”“Our foreign creditors know this. That's why they are divesting themselves of U.S. dollars and treasuries. Foreign central banks have been net sellers of treasuries. They are buying gold. They are replacing their dollars w ...

The SPDR Gold Shares ETF has easily outperformed Bitcoin, Nvidia, and the entire S&P 500 this year.Billionaire Ken Griffin runs Citadel Advisors, a hedge fund that outperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.53%) by 7 percentage points over the last three years. Even more impressive, he is the most successful hedge fund manager in history as measured by net gains (after fees) since inception, according to LCH Investments.One of Griffin's more noteworthy trades in the third quarter was starting a position in the SPDR ...

Hedge funds have been quick to use artificial intelligence to help their investing teams. The so-called smart money has also been quick to invest in the trend across public and private companies. Quant funds have used machine-learning techniques for years. Artificial intelligence has already changed the way many industries operate, and hedge funds are no exception. The $5 trillion field is diverse in the type of strategies different firms employ and the type of securities they invest in. But every ...

Economic Analysis - The claim that moving from blue states to red states can reduce inflation by 0.5% is questioned, with no state-level analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers supporting this assertion [1][2] - Rising living costs have been exacerbated by President Trump's tariffs, which have intensified financial pressures on Americans [4] - An independent study suggests that metro areas with more Republican and independent voters experienced higher inflation in 2022 compared to areas with more Democrats [5] Inflation Insights - Inflation has increased to 3% from 2% in April, particularly affecting staple goods like coffee and bacon [3] - The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis indicates that the purchasing power of $100 in 2025 is equivalent to $12.05 in 1970, highlighting the long-term erosion of dollar value [7] Investment Opportunities - Gold has surged over 50% in price over the past year, with predictions from industry leaders like JPMorgan's CEO suggesting it could reach $10,000 per ounce [9] - Real estate remains a strong asset during inflationary periods, with the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by 45% over the past five years [12] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived allow investors to participate in real estate with minimal investment and without the burdens of property management [14][15] Alternative Assets - Art is emerging as a valuable investment class, with platforms like Masterworks enabling fractional ownership of high-value artworks, making it accessible to a broader range of investors [19][21]

Market Concerns - Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos warns about the role of non-bank firms, including hedge funds, in sovereign bond markets [1]

Core Insights - Argentina's political landscape is shifting with Javier Milei's party winning decisively, indicating a potential change in economic policy and governance [2][4] - The U.S. is leveraging financial support to influence Argentina's political outcomes, highlighting the intersection of finance and geopolitics [5][15] - The use of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) to manipulate electoral outcomes raises concerns about the integrity of financial markets and the dollar's status [6][19] Political Developments - Javier Milei's coalition won 41% of the vote, significantly increasing its congressional representation [2] - The U.S. has tied financial support to Argentina's political alignment, specifically excluding China from military and port access [5][15] - The political intervention by the U.S. has been characterized as a direct manipulation of electoral outcomes rather than mere stabilization [8][19] Financial Market Reactions - Following the election, Argentina's peso dropped 5%, and stocks fell 10%, indicating market volatility in response to political uncertainty [3] - The ESF's involvement led to a temporary stabilization of the peso, allowing investors to exit at favorable prices before the market adjusted [9][11] - Major banks have expressed reluctance to provide additional financial support, indicating a shift in market sentiment and risk assessment [10] Economic Implications - Argentina's external debt exceeds $300 billion, with significant payments due by July 2026, raising concerns about future restructurings [8][12] - The dollar's share of global reserves has decreased from 60% in 2021 to below 58%, reflecting a growing trend towards de-dollarization [14] - The political conditionality of financial support may lead to increased volatility and wider credit spreads in emerging markets [17] Strategic Considerations - The ESF's use for political purposes may undermine trust in the dollar as a stable reserve currency, prompting central banks to seek alternatives [15][22] - The precedent set by U.S. intervention in Argentina could influence how other emerging markets perceive their financial relationships with the U.S. [19][24] - The potential for increased geopolitical tensions as countries reassess their reliance on the dollar and explore alternative financial systems [13][23]

Economic Concerns - Economists warn that interference with the Federal Reserve's autonomy could lead to dangerously low interest rates, negatively impacting economic growth and potentially causing skyrocketing inflation and substantial stock market losses [1][3] - Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, has labeled Trump's attacks on the Fed's independence as a "very serious danger" to the global economy [1] Critique of Political Pressure - Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel, argues that it is in Trump's best interest to allow the Fed to operate independently to make necessary decisions to control inflation, warning that undermining this independence could lead to severe economic damage and political repercussions for the GOP [3] - Griffin's critique highlights the potential consequences for senior voters who may suffer from diminished savings if inflation rises unchecked due to political pressure on the Fed [2][3] Inflation Data - The U.S. consumer price index has increased by 25% over the past five years, indicating a significant erosion of purchasing power [6] - Historical data shows that $100 in 2025 will only have the purchasing power equivalent to $12.05 in 1970, emphasizing the long-term impact of inflation [6] Gold as an Investment - Gold has historically been a reliable asset for preserving wealth, with its price surging by over 35% in the past 12 months, making it a popular choice among investors during economic uncertainty [8] - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of including gold in investment portfolios as a diversifier during challenging economic times [8] Real Estate as a Hedge - Real estate has proven to be a powerful hedge against inflation, with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rising by over 50% in the past five years due to strong demand and limited supply [11] - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived allow investors to gain exposure to real estate without the burdens of traditional property ownership, making it easier to invest in this asset class [12][13]

Core Insights - LMR Partners experienced a significant drawdown of over 20% in March 2020, marking a pivotal moment in the firm's evolution and risk management practices [1][2][5] - The firm has since expanded its risk management team from three to 25 members and revamped its risk governance, now running over 350 stress test scenarios compared to about 50 before [3][5] - LMR's improved risk management has led to enhanced performance metrics, with its Sharpe ratio increasing to two and Sortino ratio climbing to 8.4 since 2020 [5] Risk Management Enhancements - The firm calculates over 2,000 scenario permutations and monitors more than 1,500 strategy-specific risk flags, a seven-fold increase from five years ago [7] - LMR's risk management approach views risk as a collaborative partner, focusing on both downside protection and upside capture [5][9] - Structural reforms post-2020 addressed concentration issues and insufficient oversight, leading to a more robust risk management framework [5][13] Performance and Strategy Adjustments - Since 2020, LMR has achieved annualized returns of 13.7%, with its flagship multi-strategy fund managing $7.5 billion and only experiencing a negative year in 2020 [16][15] - The firm has shifted its strategy in response to market conditions, reducing capital in areas with declining expected returns and reallocating to more promising trades [24][28] - LMR's governance structure now includes dedicated risk managers for each product line, enhancing diversification and oversight [13][14] Future Outlook - The firm is adopting a defensive stance due to tight credit spreads and low volatility levels, while also planning to enhance its scenario analysis capabilities through cloud computing [33] - LMR aims to run scenarios more frequently, with a goal of achieving updates every 15 minutes within six months [33]

Group 1 - Bill Ackman aims to raise $5 billion for his US-listed closed-end fund, with $2 billion coming from institutional investors [1] - The IPO of the closed-end fund will coincide with the IPO of Pershing Square Capital Management, offering investors free shares in the firm [2] - The firm plans to give away up to 10% of partners' shares as part of the dual listing, expected as early as Q1 [2][3] Group 2 - More details about the fund and its structure will be revealed in early December during a session for bank analysts [3] - Ackman previously sold a 10% stake in Pershing, valuing it at over $10 billion ahead of the planned IPO, initially expected by late 2025 [3] - Pershing Square's assets are primarily in Pershing Square Holdings Ltd., managing $19.3 billion and generating over 17% return this year [4] Group 3 - Ackman had previously aimed to list a similar fund, Pershing Square USA Ltd., targeting $25 billion but only raised about $2 billion before pulling the listing [5] - The closed-end fund structure posed challenges in raising money due to trading at a discount to underlying investments [5] - The new structure, which includes free shares in the firm, is intended to address these challenges [6]

Core Insights - Hedge funds are heavily shorting the US dollar, reaching one of the most extreme positioning levels in two decades, which historically precedes a USD recovery rather than a prolonged decline [2][4] - The crowded short positions in the DXY indicate a potential for a short-term rebound in the dollar, as similar setups in the past have led to significant buying opportunities [3][4] - The current macro environment does not support ongoing USD weakness, with tightening dollar funding markets and slowing growth, making sudden reversals more likely [6] Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds are entrenched in "extreme short" territory, which has historically been a precursor to a dollar bounce [2][3] - Analyst Guilherme Tavares notes that when a trade becomes too crowded, it is often worth considering the opposite side, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment [3] Macro Environment - The broader economic conditions are not conducive to sustained USD weakness, as Treasury markets are pricing in future Fed cuts and dollar funding markets are tightening [6] - EndGame Macro emphasizes that extreme short positioning typically does not occur in calm markets, indicating vulnerability to shifts in sentiment or liquidity [5] Impact on Crypto Markets - There is a direct inverse relationship between the DXY and digital assets, with a rising dollar posing a threat to the crypto market [7] - If the USD rebounds strongly from these crowded shorts, it could lead to sustained pressure on crypto during a period when investors expect a multi-year bull cycle [8] Technical Signals - Market technicians are observing breakout signals on the US Dollar Index, with the DXY closing above its 200-day moving average for the first time in nearly nine months, indicating a potential end to a 7–8 month downtrend [9]