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Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-23 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 and 11.5% year to date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% compared to 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20][21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter over quarter, with total growth of $7.8 billion [10] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with new origination non-QM AAA spreads tightening by 15 basis points [12] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and unchanged serious delinquencies at 50 basis points [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth likely on pace with Q2, supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment [6] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, while inflation remained elevated near 3% [6][7] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows more than 50% higher than the average over the past few quarters [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [17] - The focus remains on maintaining a high credit quality portfolio and leveraging proprietary assets through the correspondent channel [14] - The company is positioned to benefit from expected Fed cuts and a healthy fixed income demand, with plans to increase allocations to residential credit and MSR [16][17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a positive outlook, highlighting the benefits of declining macro volatility and anticipated Fed cuts [16] - The company remains flexible in the current investing climate with historically low leverage and significant liquidity [18] - Concerns about the housing market were noted, with expectations of modest cumulative depreciation due to elevated mortgage rates [14] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of accretive equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program [9] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased modestly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and overseas participants [26][27] Question: MSR bulk supply and pricing - The bulk supply has increased from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year, encouraging future bulk supply [29][30] Question: Agency returns breakdown - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with low realized volatility aiding hedging costs [35][36] Question: MSR purchase strategy - The company prefers lower note rate MSRs to mitigate negative convexity risk, with a focus on maintaining a diversified portfolio [46][48] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - Management expects stable mortgage spreads to support continued market activity, with NonQM market penetration increasing [51][54] Question: Duration risk and portfolio management - The company is currently maintaining a close to zero duration gap due to market uncertainty, with plans to manage risks carefully [62][66] Question: GSEs' potential impact on the market - Speculation exists regarding GSEs becoming more active buyers, but the market has strong demand from REITs and fixed income funds [70][71]
Annaly(NLY) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-23 14:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 2025 and 11.5% year-to-date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with a total growth of $7.8 billion [8][19] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from new securitizations [10][11] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [4][5] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows over 50% higher than average [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, focusing on agency MBS, residential credit, and MSR, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [16][18] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations of additional Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand supporting investment strategies [17][18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% in the near term [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro environment is expected to remain stable, with declining volatility and a favorable technical backdrop for agency MBS [16][17] - The company is cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties [50][52] - The management expressed confidence in the stability of earnings available for distribution, supported by a strong swap portfolio and low leverage [60][67] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program, and reopened the mortgage REIT preferred market [6][7] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated with stable cash flows [14][15] - A new partnership with PennyMac Financial Services was announced, enhancing the company's servicing capabilities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs as the Fed continues to cut rates [25][26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing of MSR - The bulk supply of MSR has increased by 50%, primarily from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [27] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with a blended yield of about 160 basis points, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [30] Question: Prepayment protection in specified pools - Management discussed the advantages of specified pools for prepayment protection, emphasizing their long-term options and favorable convexity profiles [34][35] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - The company expects continued activity in the non-QM market, with stable mortgage spreads allowing for growth despite seasonal pressures [42][43] Question: Duration risk and leverage - Management confirmed a cautious approach to duration risk, maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap while evaluating opportunities for future leverage [50][52] Question: Stability of NII and dividend coverage - The company expressed confidence in maintaining stable NII levels and ensuring dividend coverage, supported by a strong hedge ratio [58][67]
Sachem Capital Sets Dates for Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Globenewswire· 2025-10-22 20:15
Core Viewpoint - Sachem Capital Corp. will release its third quarter 2025 financial results on November 5, 2025, before market open, followed by a webcast and conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time [1]. Company Overview - Sachem Capital Corp. is a mortgage REIT that focuses on originating, underwriting, funding, servicing, and managing a portfolio of loans secured by first mortgages on real property [3]. - The company provides short-term secured, nonbanking loans to real estate investors for property acquisition, renovation, development, rehabilitation, or improvement, with a primary underwriting criterion of a conservative loan-to-value ratio [3]. - The loans are typically secured by residential or commercial real estate, held for resale or investment, and are personally guaranteed by the principal(s) of the borrower [3]. - In addition to lending activities, the company also engages in opportunistic real estate purchases [3]. Conference Call Participation - To participate in the conference call, interested parties should dial in at least 15 minutes prior to the start time, with domestic and international numbers provided [3]. - A playback of the conference call will be available until November 19, 2025, with specific domestic and international numbers for access [3].
Dynex Capital(DX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-20 15:02
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date shareholder returns were 20% as of last Friday's close, 23% over the last year, and nearly 72% over the last three years with dividends reinvested [4] - Total economic return for the quarter was 10.3% and 11.5% year-to-date, reflecting disciplined management of Agency RMBS [4] - The common equity market cap is now above $1.8 billion, indicating growth in investor trust [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income continues to trend upward due to new investments with attractive yields, with over $130 million of gains on the portfolio in the third quarter [8] - The portfolio has grown over 50% larger since the beginning of the year and is 10% larger since the end of the second quarter [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgages offered wide spreads to Treasuries and interest rate swaps, with implied volatility declining early in the quarter [11] - The agency current coupon yield declined from nearly 5.75% to nearly 5%, leading to a sharp increase in the refinance index [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build a resilient platform at the intersection of capital markets and housing finance, focusing on risk discipline and liquidity management [4] - A new office in New York City is being opened to attract talent and strengthen business partnerships [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The operating environment remains complex with vulnerabilities due to persistent inflation and geopolitical factors [5] - The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing rates down to more neutral levels, but uncertainty in the rate path is significant [6] - The company is prepared for potential surprises in the market, emphasizing a deliberate growth strategy [7] Other Important Information - The company has raised $254 million in new capital in the third quarter and $776 million year-to-date, allowing for capital growth at a premium to book value [9] - The company is focused on disciplined risk management and liquidity to weather future volatility, with liquidity at over $1 billion [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current ROEs and dividend implications - ROEs in Agency RMBS remain in the high teens net of hedging costs, with gross in the mid-20s on a large percentage of the coupon stack [23] Question: Update on book value - Estimated book value is $1,271 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close [25] Question: Mortgage spreads and historical context - Mortgage spreads are still in the top quartile of the widest levels when compared to interest rate swaps [29] Question: Demand side outlook for GSEs - GSE holdings of Agency MBS could increase, with the capacity to add as much as $450 billion under current agreements [36] Question: Impact of implied volatility on hedging strategy - The company is looking at pockets of cheap volatility to stabilize the duration of the portfolio [41] Question: Market's reaction to volatility themes - The market has reacted to increased certainty in policy outcomes, but the company remains prepared for unexpected events [45]
Dynex Capital(DX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-20 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date shareholder returns were 20% as of last Friday's close, and 23% over the last year, with nearly 72% returns over the last three years when dividends are reinvested [6] - Total economic return for the quarter was 10.3% and 11.5% year-to-date, reflecting disciplined management of Agency RMBS [6] - The common equity market cap surpassed $1.8 billion, indicating broadening trust from individuals and institutions [7] - Estimated book value was $12.71 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income continues to trend upward due to new investments with attractive yields, with over $130 million in gains on the portfolio in the third quarter [12][13] - The portfolio has grown over 50% larger since the beginning of the year and is 10% larger since the end of the second quarter [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgages offered wide spreads to treasuries and interest rate swaps, with nominal spreads remaining wide [16] - The GSEs have the capacity to add up to $450 billion under current stock purchase agreements, which could increase demand for Agency MBS [44] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build a resilient platform at the intersection of capital markets and housing finance, focusing on risk discipline and liquidity management [5] - The strategy includes a deliberate bias towards lower coupons, which are expected to outperform as mortgage rates decline [17] - The company is opening a new office in New York City to attract talent and strengthen market position [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The operating environment remains complex, with vulnerabilities due to persistent inflation and geopolitical factors [7] - The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing rates down to more neutral levels, but uncertainty in the rate path is significant [8] - The company is prepared for potential surprises in the private credit market, emphasizing a deliberate growth strategy [10] Other Important Information - The company has raised $254 million in new common equity capital in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date new capital growth to $776 million [13][17] - The company continues to focus on disciplined risk management and liquidity to weather future volatility [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Where do you see incremental spreads and current ROEs? - ROEs in agency RMBS remain in the high teens net of hedging costs, with gross in the mid-twenties for a large percentage of the coupon stack [29] Question: Can we get an update on book value quarter to date? - Estimated book value is $12.71 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close [31] Question: Can you discuss the demand side outlook for agencies? - GSE holdings of Agency MBS could increase, with the capacity to add significant amounts under current agreements [44] Question: How are you thinking about swap spreads? - The federal deficit is a major factor, and while spreads could go more negative, there is a buffer at current levels [38] Question: What are the implications of lower volatility on your hedging strategy? - Lower volatility allows for the repurchase of options that were short in a levered mortgage position, stabilizing the portfolio's duration [48] Question: Do you see opportunities to pick up alpha within the coupon stack? - There are tremendous opportunities across the coupon stack, allowing for flexibility beyond the current coupon [60]
Dynex Capital(DX) - 2025 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2025-10-20 15:00
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Year-to-date shareholder returns were 20% as of last Friday's close, 23% over the last year, and nearly 72% over the last three years with dividends reinvested [4] - Total economic return for the quarter was 10.3% and 11.5% year-to-date, reflecting disciplined management of Agency RMBS [4] - The common equity market cap is now above $1.8 billion, indicating growth in investor trust [5] - Estimated book value is $1,271 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net interest income continues to trend upward due to new investments with attractive yields, with over $130 million of gains on the portfolio in the third quarter [9] - The portfolio has grown over 50% larger since the beginning of the year and is 10% larger since the end of the second quarter [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Agency mortgages offered wide spreads to Treasuries and interest rate swaps, with nominal spreads remaining wide [12] - The agency current coupon yield declined from nearly 5.75% to nearly 5%, leading to a sharp increase in the refinance index [13] - GSE holdings of Agency MBS could potentially increase, with the capacity to add as much as $450 billion under current agreements [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on building a resilient platform at the intersection of capital markets and housing finance, emphasizing risk discipline and liquidity management [4] - The strategy includes opportunistic investing and focused value creation, with a deliberate bias towards lower coupons expected to outperform [12][15] - The company is opening a new office in New York City to attract talent and enhance business partnerships [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The operating environment remains complex, with vulnerabilities due to persistent inflation and geopolitical factors [5] - The Federal Reserve is committed to bringing rates down to more neutral levels, but uncertainty in the rate path is significant [6] - The company is prepared for potential surprises in the market and remains focused on strengthening its market position [8] Other Important Information - The company raised $254 million in new capital in the third quarter, bringing year-to-date new capital growth to $776 million [10] - The liquidity at quarter end was over $1 billion, representing over 50% of total equity [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Where do you see incremental spreads and current ROEs? - ROEs in Agency RMBS remain in the high teens net of hedging costs, with gross in the mid-20s on a large percentage of the coupon stack [22] Question: Can we get an update on book value quarter to date? - Estimated book value is $1,271 net of the dividend accrual as of Friday's close [24] Question: Can you elaborate on mortgage spreads being wide relative to history? - Mortgage spreads are still in the top quartile of the widest levels when compared to interest rate swaps [27] Question: What is the potential for GSEs as a player on the demand side? - GSE holdings of Agency MBS could increase, with a capacity to add as much as $450 billion under current agreements [32] Question: How are you thinking about the hedging strategy with lower volatility? - The company is looking to repurchase options that are inherently short in a levered mortgage position, focusing on pockets of cheap volatility [36] Question: Why has the market shrugged off volatility themes? - There is more certainty in the market due to policy commitments from the Fed and clearer policy outcomes from the administration [40]
AG Mortgage Investment Trust PFD Update: Too Risky For My Taste (NYSE:MITT)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-17 12:00
Group 1 - The focus is on income-producing asset classes such as REITs, ETFs, Preferreds, and 'Dividend Champions' that target premium dividend yields up to 10% [1] - iREIT®+HOYA Capital is highlighted as a premier income-focused investing service that offers sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [2] - The article discusses preferred stocks of AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MITT), a mortgage REIT, indicating a move down the capital structure from previously discussed notes [3]
AG Mortgage Investment Trust PFD Update: Too Risky For My Taste
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-17 12:00
Core Insights - The focus is on income-producing asset classes such as REITs, ETFs, Preferreds, and 'Dividend Champions' that target premium dividend yields up to 10% [1] - iREIT®+HOYA Capital is highlighted as a premier income-focused investing service, emphasizing sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [2] - The article discusses preferred stocks of AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (NYSE: MITT), a mortgage REIT, indicating a move down the capital structure from previously discussed notes [3] Investment Strategies - The service offers a free two-week trial to explore top ideas across exclusive income-focused portfolios [2] - The author has a background in data analysis and pension fund management, focusing on strategies for retirement preparation through various investment vehicles [3] Market Position - The emphasis on premium dividend yields and income-producing assets positions the service as a valuable resource for investors seeking income and diversification [1][2]
MFA Financial: A Look At The Senior Security Suite Of This Hybrid Mortgage REIT (NYSE:MFA)
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-15 18:58
Core Insights - The article promotes Systematic Income's Income Portfolios, which are designed with a focus on yield and risk management considerations [1] Group 1 - Systematic Income offers powerful Interactive Investor Tools to assist in navigating various markets, including BDC, CEF, OEF, preferred, and baby bond markets [1] - The company provides Investor Guides specifically for CEFs, Preferreds, and PIMCO CEFs, indicating a commitment to educating investors [1] - A promotional offer is available for a 2-week free trial, allowing potential clients to explore the services without risk [1]
Mortgage REITs Hammer BDCs
Seeking Alpha· 2025-10-14 11:20
Core Insights - The mortgage REITs (mREITs) have significantly outperformed the Business Development Company (BDC) sector this year, driven by falling short-term rates and increased investor caution due to bankruptcies among some borrowers [1][4]. Performance Comparison - The VanEck Mortgage REIT Income ETF (MORT) has consistently outperformed the VanEck BDC Income ETF (BIZD) and Putnam BDC Income ETF (PBDC) over the past 12 months, with substantial outperformance noted [4]. - The top holdings in MORT include Annaly Capital Management Inc. (15.08% of total holdings) and Agni Investment Corp. (14.51% of total holdings), indicating a strong focus on agency mortgage-backed securities [4][5]. Interest Rate Sensitivity - Agency mortgage REITs are particularly sensitive to interest rate changes, but there is a common misconception that they only benefit from lower rates. In reality, a significant decline in mortgage rates can lead to increased prepayments, negatively impacting mREITs [5][6]. - The ideal scenario for mortgage REITs is stable mortgage rates with a gradual decline in the Fed Funds Rate, allowing them to manage their portfolios effectively [12][11]. Valuation Insights - The price-to-book value for major mortgage REITs is estimated at approximately 1.08x to 1.23x, with projected increases in book values of about 4% to 5% from mid-2025 to the present [13]. - Some mortgage REITs may report declines in book value per share for Q3 2025, indicating potential volatility in valuations across the sector [13]. Investment Opportunities - There are opportunities within the mortgage REIT sector, with some shares becoming relatively cheap, although the focus has been more on BDCs recently due to their price declines [14]. - The company is also exploring investments in preferred shares and baby bonds, which offer attractive yields with more stable prices compared to common shares [15].