Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The book value per share increased by 4.3% from $18.45 in the prior quarter to $19.25, achieving an economic return of 8.1% for Q3 2025 and 11.5% year-to-date [19][20] - Earnings available for distribution per share remained consistent at $0.73, exceeding the dividend for the quarter [20] - The average yield improved to 5.46% from 5.41% in the prior quarter, while the average repo rate improved by three basis points to 4.5% [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agency portfolio's market value increased to over $87 billion, up 10% quarter-over-quarter, with a total growth of $7.8 billion [8][19] - The residential credit portfolio increased to $6.9 billion in economic market value, with significant contributions from new securitizations [10][11] - The mortgage servicing rights (MSR) portfolio increased by $215 million to $3.5 billion, with stable cash flows and low delinquency rates [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. economy showed resilience with GDP growth supported by consumer spending and AI-driven business investment, despite elevated inflation near 3% [4][5] - Labor market conditions weakened, with hiring slowing to 30,000 jobs per month, leading to a slight increase in the unemployment rate [5] - The agency MBS market saw improved supply and demand dynamics, with fixed income fund inflows over 50% higher than average [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains a diversified housing finance strategy, focusing on agency MBS, residential credit, and MSR, which has generated a 13% annualized economic return over the past three years [16][18] - The outlook remains positive, with expectations of additional Fed cuts and healthy fixed income demand supporting investment strategies [17][18] - The company aims to increase its residential credit and MSR weightings to a combined 40% in the near term [26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the macro environment is expected to remain stable, with declining volatility and a favorable technical backdrop for agency MBS [16][17] - The company is cautious about taking on additional rate risk, preferring to maintain a close-to-zero duration gap due to market uncertainties [50][52] - The management expressed confidence in the stability of earnings available for distribution, supported by a strong swap portfolio and low leverage [60][67] Other Important Information - The company raised $1.1 billion of equity in Q3, including $800 million through its ATM program, and reopened the mortgage REIT preferred market [6][7] - The MSR valuation multiple decreased slightly due to lower mortgage rates, but the portfolio remains well insulated with stable cash flows [14][15] - A new partnership with PennyMac Financial Services was announced, enhancing the company's servicing capabilities [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Agency returns and investment preferences - Management indicated that agency investments remain attractive despite tighter spreads, with expectations for increased demand from banks and REITs as the Fed continues to cut rates [25][26] Question: Bulk supply and pricing of MSR - The bulk supply of MSR has increased by 50%, primarily from large participants, with stable pricing throughout the year [27] Question: Breakdown of agency returns - The spread to swaps versus treasuries is around 35 to 40 basis points, with a blended yield of about 160 basis points, indicating a favorable risk-return profile [30] Question: Prepayment protection in specified pools - Management discussed the advantages of specified pools for prepayment protection, emphasizing their long-term options and favorable convexity profiles [34][35] Question: Outlook for mortgage spreads and securitization - The company expects continued activity in the non-QM market, with stable mortgage spreads allowing for growth despite seasonal pressures [42][43] Question: Duration risk and leverage - Management confirmed a cautious approach to duration risk, maintaining a close-to-zero duration gap while evaluating opportunities for future leverage [50][52] Question: Stability of NII and dividend coverage - The company expressed confidence in maintaining stable NII levels and ensuring dividend coverage, supported by a strong hedge ratio [58][67]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of two volatility metrics, skew ratio and convexity, in understanding market sentiment and uncertainty [4][6][13] - It emphasizes that while skew ratio indicates potential market direction, convexity is crucial for assessing the cost of risk in out-of-the-money options [3][5][13] Group 1: Euro Futures Market - In early March 2025, the Euro futures market experienced a rally, with the skew ratio increasing from 0.90 to 1.05, indicating a bullish sentiment [5] - The rise in convexity during this period reflected increased uncertainty due to the introduction of tariffs [5] - By April 2025, convexity rose again, suggesting that the market was anticipating an imminent move, supported by the skew ratio indicating a likely upside trend [5] Group 2: Wheat Prices and Geopolitical Conflicts - Wheat prices surged from approximately $7.50 to over $9 per bushel amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict in October 2022 [8] - The increase in the skew ratio during this period reflected a bullish sentiment among traders [8] - However, the concurrent rise in convexity indicated growing uncertainty about the market's direction, with traders seeking protection against potential price movements [8] Group 3: Copper Market Dynamics - In April 2025, discussions around proposed copper tariffs led to increased market protection seeking, reflected in a rising skew ratio for front-month copper futures [11] - The simultaneous increase in convexity suggested conflicting sentiments in the market, as participants anticipated potential price increases while also hedging against uncertainty [11]

Core Viewpoint - The cohead of global banking and markets at Goldman Sachs, Ashok Varadhan, describes the current stock market bull run as "fairly high-quality" and emphasizes that US equities remain the best investment option [1][5]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq experienced significant lows in April following the announcement of tariffs by President Trump, but have since shown "very little volatility" [2][5]. - Varadhan indicates that the market's recovery can be viewed as a high-quality rally based on the stability observed since the lows [2][3]. Investment Strategy - Varadhan favors US equities due to anticipated future interest rate cuts, potential fiscal support from proposed legislation, the market's capacity to handle tariffs, and the ongoing rise of AI [3]. - He notes that while many investors share this optimistic outlook, a cautious approach among investors contributes to the market's upward movement [3]. AI and Market Positioning - Varadhan expresses confidence in the AI sector, stating it has gained momentum since early 2023 and suggests that investors should take advantage of the current market calm to increase "convexity" in their positions [4]. - He recommends purchasing index puts on equities and calls on the dollar, highlighting that these strategies can be executed "fairly cheaply" [4].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company generated net investment income (NII) and realized gains of $0.44 per share in Q1 2025, down from $0.54 per share in Q4 2024, comprised of $0.40 of NII and $0.04 of realized capital gains [5][20] - The NAV per share decreased to $14.16 as of March 31, 2025, from $14.99 as of December 31, 2024, representing a 5.5% decline [7][22] - Recurring cash flows for Q1 2025 were $16,500,000 or $0.71 per share, compared to $16,100,000 or $0.82 per share in Q4 2024 [8][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The decline in NII was primarily due to a significant drop in SOFR and spread compression on syndicated loans, adversely impacting earnings from the CLO equity portfolio [6][15] - The company deployed approximately $120,000,000 of gross capital across 27 CLO debt purchases and nine CLO equity purchases during Q1 2025 [13] - The trailing twelve-month default rate decreased slightly to 80 basis points as of March 31, remaining well below the historical average of 2.6% [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - CLO issuance in Q1 2025 was $49,000,000,000, down from $59,000,000,000 in Q4 2024, but still healthy by historical standards [18] - The S&P UBS Leveraged Loan Index generated a total return of 60 basis points during Q1 2025, with a recent increase of 1.8% for the year as of May 23 [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on capitalizing on market volatility by purchasing CLO debt and equity at discounted prices, which is expected to yield positive returns over time [11][24] - The management aims to extend the weighted average remaining reinvestment period of the CLO equity portfolio and seeks longer reinvestment period opportunities [18] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management indicated that the decline in NII is largely driven by the drop in short-term rates, and the new distribution rate reflects the company's near to medium-term earnings potential [24] - The company believes it is well-positioned to continue generating strong returns for shareholders despite current market conditions [25] Other Important Information - The company declared three monthly distributions of $0.13 per share for the third quarter of 2025, a decline from previous distributions [9][21] - As of April 30, 2025, the company had $33,000,000 of cash and undrawn revolver capacity available for investment [19][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the reduction in dividend distribution - Management clarified that the reduction in dividend distribution is due to changes in SOFR and not related to capital losses, emphasizing that the majority of the portfolio is CLO BBs which fluctuate with rates [26][36] Question: Clarification on CLOs and default rates - Management confirmed that the change in distribution rate is principally driven by the change in SOFR, with no credit-related issues affecting the portfolio [35][37]