Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **China Residential Market**: Developers are increasingly negative due to accelerated price declines, leading to margin and earnings pressure in 2025 and 2026. BEKE anticipates a 30% YoY decline in existing home GTV in Q4 2025 and a 13% and 6% decline in existing and new home transaction GTV in 2026 respectively [2][19]. - **Hong Kong Residential Market**: Developers report a strong recovery in transaction volume driven by rate cuts, rising rental demand, and increased investment from mainland Chinese buyers. There is potential for gradual price increases in new project launches [3]. - **Retail Sector**: High-end malls in China and Hong Kong are experiencing better momentum in 2H25, attributed to positive wealth effects from stock markets and rising gold prices. However, mass market retail remains challenging due to consumption downgrades and e-commerce penetration [4]. - **Office Market in Hong Kong**: There are signs of recovery in the Central office market, driven by increased leasing inquiries from the financial sector and IPO-related services [5]. Company-Specific Insights - **CR Land**: Reported a 17% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb170bn and expects downward pressure on earnings in 2025 due to lack of one-off gains [8]. - **COLI**: Experienced a 21% YoY decline in contract sales gross value to Rmb189bn, with expectations of launching large projects to mitigate sales decline [9]. - **Greentown China**: Reported a 6% YoY decline in contract sales to Rmb120bn, with expectations of slight profit in 2025 but continued pressure from vintage inventory [10]. - **Poly Developments**: Focused on liquidity and destocking, with a significant portion of sales coming from vintage inventory [11]. - **CR Mixc**: Forecasted double-digit core net profit growth for FY2025, supported by strong same-store sales growth [15]. - **Beike (KE Holdings)**: Expects a 30% YoY decline in GTV for existing homes in Q4 2025, but maintains a guidance of Rmb7bn adjusted operating profit for 2026 [19][20]. Market Preferences - **Stock Preferences**: Preference for HK developers like Henderson and Sino due to the bottoming of the HK residential market, and for retail properties like CR Mixc and Swire Properties due to recovery in mainland China retail [6]. Risks and Valuation - **Valuation Methods**: P/BV methods are used for mainland China property developers, while discount to NAV is used for Hong Kong developers and landlords [31]. - **Key Risks**: For Hong Kong, risks include weakening macroeconomic conditions and increased housing supply. For mainland China, risks involve government policies restricting demand and tight financing for developers [32]. Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: There is a cautious optimism among developers in Hong Kong regarding sales momentum and potential price increases, while mainland developers face significant challenges due to declining sales and margins [3][4][5][8][9][10][11].

1 December 2025 | 4:20PM CST Equity Research CHINA VANKE (000002.SZ, 2202.HK) Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/r ...

Key TakeawaysChina's manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in November 2025, with the RatingDog PMI falling to 49.9, marking the first contraction since July.Troubled property developer China Vanke (000002.SZ, 2202.HK) saw trading halted on its 2028 yuan bond after a dramatic 36% price drop to 34.5 per 100 par, signaling ongoing concerns in the Chinese real estate market.The Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) experienced an outage affecting its announcement system, though initial indications sugges ...

Asia Pacific Equity Research 27 November 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Property & Banks Vanke's bond extension - what are the implications? Jocelyn Gao (852) 2800-8529 jocelyn.gao@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific ...

Market Activity - Trading activity is expected to be subdued on Friday with thin volumes and an early market close at 1 PM ET due to the Thanksgiving holiday [1] - Futures showed slight increases with Dow futures up 0.11%, S&P futures up 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures up 0.18% [1] Futures Trading - An outage on CME Group's platform disrupted futures trading, attributed to a technical issue at CyrusOne data centers [2] - Positive investor sentiment is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Major averages closed positively on Wednesday, marking the fourth consecutive session of gains as traders anticipated a rate cut by the Fed [3] - Dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have increased optimism, with the probability of a quarter-point rate cut rising to 82.9% from 30.1% in the previous week according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool [3] Leadership Speculation - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, is considered a frontrunner for the next Fed Chair, aligning with President Trump's preference for low-interest rates [4] - The Dow increased by 314.67 points (0.7%) to 47,427.12, the Nasdaq rose by 189.10 points (0.8%) to 23,214.69, and the S&P 500 advanced by 46.73 points (0.7%) to 6,812.61 [4] International Market Performance - Asian stocks showed mixed results, influenced by disappointing industrial profits data from China and concerns over the property market due to China Vanke's bond repayment delay [5] - European stocks experienced subdued trading as investors assessed recent economic data from the region and the U.S. [5] Commodity Prices - West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures increased by $0.43 (0.73%) to $59.08 per barrel [6] - Gold futures rose by $19.10 (0.45%) to $4,221.40 per ounce [6]

UK Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) has revised its gross gilt issuance target for the 2025/26 fiscal year to £303.7 billion, up from £299.1 billion planned in April and £299.6 billion projected earlier in the year, due to higher-than-expected public borrowing [2][8] - The DMO plans to sell £78.5 billion in medium-dated conventional gilts, £10.5 billion in long-dated conventional gilts, £19.4 billion of index-linked gilts, and £10.0 billion in green gilts in 2025/26 [2][8] UK Budget Measures - Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £150 reduction in average household energy bills starting in April, with no increases in VAT, income tax, or National Insurance Contributions [3][8] - Changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) relief will reduce the rate for sales to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50%, with CGT receipts expected to rise to £30 billion by 2030 from £14 billion [3][8] - Additional measures include £1.3 billion for electric car grants, lower business tax rates for 750,000 high street businesses, and a gambling tax reform projected to raise £1 billion annually by 2031 [3][8] US Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, below the estimated 225,000, and down from the previous week's revised 222,000 [4][8] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month-over-month in September, meeting expectations, with a 0.6% rise excluding transportation [5][8] China Vanke's Bond Proposal - China Vanke has proposed extending 2 billion yuan of bonds maturing on December 15, amidst ongoing challenges in China's real estate sector, with another 3.7 billion yuan bond maturing on December 28 [6][8] International Developments - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian nationals, effective September 2, 2025 [7][8] - Sweden's Foreign Minister called for the EU to advance a 20th sanctions package against Russia to increase pressure on Moscow [7][8] Company-Specific News - Morgan Stanley has named ASML Holding N.V. as its 'Top Pick' in European semiconductors, citing strong demand in key chipmaking areas [9]

Summary of Conference Call Notes on CR Land and CR Mixc Company Overview - **Companies Involved**: CR Land (1109.HK) and CR Mixc (1209.HK) - **Industry**: Real Estate and Property Management in China Key Points Business Development and Strategy - CR Land has a significant presence in Northern China, with 19% of its contract sales and 23% of its land bank located in this region as of 1H25 [1][3] - CR Mixc's managed malls in Northern China account for 21% of its operations, 31% of registered members, and 18% of non-commercial property management projects [1][3] Property Development (DP) - The DP business has been scaled down to focus on profitability, targeting higher-end residential markets with average project net margins of 9%-15%, compared to a group-level net margin of 6% for 2024 [3][8] - New projects like Hohhot Rui Fu and Taiyuan Rui Fu have achieved strong performance, with Taiyuan Rui Fu reporting a 93% sell-through rate and an anticipated cash net margin of 11%-13% [9][10] Mall Operations (IP) - CR Land and CR Mixc have successfully replicated their coastal success in less developed regions, with rental yields in these areas surpassing low-teens percentages [3][27] - The companies have introduced localized designs and a brand incubation model to enhance mall appeal and consumer engagement [3][30] Property Management (PM) - CR Mixc focuses on non-residential PM, leveraging SOE partnerships and expertise to win tenders for business parks, hospitals, and schools [4][40] - The Beijing region reported a 27% CAGR in managed GFA from 2021-24, indicating robust growth in property management [40] Financial Performance and Valuation - CR Land maintains a Buy rating with a 12-month NAV-based price target of HK$38, while CR Mixc also holds a Buy rating with a price target of HK$40 [4][48] - Key risks include revenue booking and rental profitability falling below expectations, as well as potential delays in mall openings due to macroeconomic pressures [5][49] Market Position and Future Outlook - CR Land is positioned to strengthen its leadership in property development and shopping mall operations during the industry downturn, with expectations of maintaining a top-5 ranking in sales [47] - CR Mixc is recognized for its strong margin sustainability and is expected to accelerate market share gains in the residential segment [48] Additional Insights - The companies are focusing on high-end luxury projects and densely populated urban districts to capitalize on housing upgrade demand [10][30] - Management emphasized the importance of a unified membership program to enhance customer loyalty and drive marketing precision, with ambitious profit growth targets for 2025 [31][30] Conclusion The conference call highlighted CR Land and CR Mixc's strategic focus on profitability, market expansion, and innovative approaches in property development, mall operations, and property management. Both companies are well-positioned to navigate the current market challenges while aiming for sustainable growth and enhanced shareholder value.

Market Trends & Funding - UAE property developers are increasingly utilizing diverse funding tools, including Islamic bonds and private credit, to capitalize on the real estate boom [1][2] - Dollar bond and sukuk issuance from UAE property developers has surged 12-fold since 2021, reaching $6 billion [2] - Developers are primarily using these funds to acquire prime land locations, driven by a property price rally of up to 70% since 2019 [2][3] Risk Assessment & Sustainability - A potential "wall of maturities" is building, particularly from new issuers, raising concerns about future repayment capabilities [4] - While fundamentals are considered strong with low leverage and high profit margins (40%+), the sustainability of the boom is questioned due to potential oversupply in the coming years [3][4][6] - Developers are experienced in managing supply and market fluctuations, mitigating immediate concerns about the boom's sustainability [6][7] Investor Landscape - The investor base is expanding, with sukuk attracting different investors than traditional bonds, and some developers exploring IPOs [4][5] - Market is experiencing fatigue from numerous issuers tapping the same markets, potentially leading to more expensive pricing [7]

Property developers in the United Arab Emirates are raising billions through a growing arsenal of funding tools - from Islamic bonds to private credit - as they ride one of the Gulf country’s longest real estate booms in years https://t.co/mUOPH7L7A4 ...

China is considering new measures to turn around its struggling property market, as concerns mount that a further weakening of the sector will threaten to destabilize its financial system https://t.co/5Luf6IicCv ...