RT Nick Szabo (@NickSzabo4)A closed strait is not what gives Iran leverage.Their military veto power over commercial shipping through the strait is what gives them leverage. And they are certainly not going to give that up. Nor does any armed force in the world any longer have the ability to take away such a veto power. The military technology and tactics that give Iran this power were aptly demonstrated by their proxy the Houthis at the Bab-El-Mandeb a year ago.Iran is happy to open up the Strait of Hormuz ...

Turkey is seeking permission from Iranian authorities for 11 Turkish-owned ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the state-run Anadolu news agency reported https://t.co/29MwUHGzFR ...

Summary of China Merchants Energy Shipping (601872.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Merchants Energy Shipping Co Ltd (601872.SS) - **Industry**: Energy Shipping Key Points and Arguments 1. **Management Outlook on VLCC**: Management remains optimistic about Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), projecting a one-year Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) of approximately US$130,000 per day, which is expected to support TCE levels with potential for further upside if the Strait of Hormuz reopens [1][6][7] 2. **Impact of Strait of Hormuz Closure**: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is anticipated to reduce export volumes; however, management believes this can be partially mitigated by increased exports from Yanbu, the release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), and strong arbitrage demand due to oil price differences across regions [1][6] 3. **Aging Fleet Utilization**: VLCCs older than 20 years are operating at lower utilization rates, with 40-70% of these older compliant vessels being used for floating storage. The average age of the company's VLCC fleet is 10 years, with utilization rates previously at 95-97% before the Iran conflict [1][7] 4. **TCE Performance**: The company's VLCC TCE was reported at approximately US$80,000 per day in Q4 2025, outperforming the market due to higher spot exposure. Management indicated that a US$10,000 per day increase in TCE could lead to a pre-tax profit increase of RMB 1 billion [1][7] 5. **Arbitrage Demand**: Management highlighted that arbitrage demand, driven by oil price differences across regions, is a significant factor supporting elevated TCE levels. They noted that the TCE from Yanbu Port to China is currently at WS150-250, while TCE from West Africa and the US Gulf to China ranges from US$100,000 to US$150,000 per day [1][6] 6. **Future Ship Deliveries**: The current order book for new ship deliveries is only 50% compared to the number of aged ships, indicating a potential supply constraint in the future [1][7] 7. **Middle East Disruption**: Management noted that approximately 4 million barrels of crude oil are exported from Yanbu daily, with plans to increase this to 5 million barrels per day as per Saudi Arabia's strategy. The disruption in the Middle East and increased exports from the US and Brazil have led to the redeployment of many tankers [1][6] Additional Important Information - **CAPEX for Aging Fleet**: To enhance operational efficiency, management estimates that the aging fleet requires an annual capital expenditure of approximately US$10-20 million [1][7] - **Market Context**: The management's insights reflect a broader context of geopolitical tensions affecting oil supply routes and the shipping industry, emphasizing the importance of regional dynamics in shipping demand [1][6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding China Merchants Energy Shipping's operational outlook, market conditions, and strategic considerations in the energy shipping sector.

COSCO Shipping Energy (1138.HK) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: COSCO Shipping Energy - **Ticker**: 1138.HK - **Market Cap**: HK$90.5 billion / $11.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$103.3 billion / $13.2 billion - **Industry**: Transportation, specifically oil shipping Key Financial Results - **FY25 Net Profit**: Rmb4.0 billion, with a 4Q25 net profit of Rmb1.3 billion (+112% YoY / +54% QoQ) [2] - **Recurring Profit**: Excluding one-off items, FY25 recurring profit was Rmb3.9 billion, with 4Q25 recurring profit also at Rmb1.3 billion, missing consensus by 35% [2] - **Final Dividend**: Rmb0.38 per share, representing a 51% payout of full-year recurring profit [2] Operational Highlights - **VLCC Spot TCE**: Recognized TCE in 4Q25 was above US$70k/day, with some revenue recognition delayed to 1Q26 [3] - **Fleet Management**: 8 vessels are held inside the Gulf, unable to collect demurrage fees; 10 VLCCs redirected to Yanbu with TCE of US$170-180k/day [3] - **Load Factor**: Excluding vessels in the Persian Gulf, the load factor of the remaining fleet is maintained at 50-55%, similar to pre-war levels [3] - **VLCC Fleet**: 51 VLCCs in operation, with 6 new VLCCs scheduled for delivery in 2027-2028; 10-15% of VLCCs are chartered out [3] Market Dynamics - **International Oil Transportation**: Turnover down -7% YoY in 4Q25; however, average crude tanker TCE rose +158% YoY, tracking below industry BDTI TD3C TCE of +186% YoY [19] - **Demand and Supply**: Management believes VLCC deliveries are insufficient to meet replacement demand until 2029, indicating a continued net demand for VLCCs in the near term [3][21] - **Cost Management**: Unit costs fell -4% YoY in 4Q25; charter costs more than doubled YoY, offset by lower unit fuel costs (-17%) [21] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecasts**: - FY25: Rmb23.8 billion - FY26E: Rmb38.9 billion - FY27E: Rmb36.9 billion - FY28E: Rmb34.9 billion [7] - **EPS Projections**: - FY25: Rmb0.79 - FY26E: Rmb2.45 - FY27E: Rmb2.11 - FY28E: Rmb1.73 [7] Investment Thesis - **Buy Rating**: COSCO Shipping Energy is rated as a Buy due to its position as a key beneficiary of the VLCC super-cycle driven by tight capacity and industry consolidation [20] - **Market Share**: The company holds a 5% share of the global seaborne crude oil tanker market and a 1% share of the product oil tanker market [35] - **Growth Drivers**: Limited capacity additions, structural demand increases due to geopolitical factors, and COSCO's diversified fleet position are expected to support continued growth [35] Risks - **Key Risks**: - OPEC output reductions - Higher-than-expected capacity deliveries - Weaker oil consumption demand due to macroeconomic conditions [32] Conclusion COSCO Shipping Energy's recent performance reflects strong operational metrics despite some revenue recognition delays. The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing market dynamics, with a solid growth outlook supported by its extensive fleet and strategic management decisions.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The settlement price of the April contract is gradually becoming clear. The PA alliance is facing significant cargo - booking pressure, and it is necessary to monitor whether the OA alliance will follow suit in price cuts. The estimated settlement price of the 04 contract is around 1660 points if the Maersk price remains flat next week, and around 1630 points if it drops by $100/FEU [4]. - The price of the EC2605 contract in the second half of April is weak and may continue to decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The spot price of $3000 in May has been fully priced in, and the 5 - month contract will gradually enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - The contracts for June, July, and August are expected to be relatively strong in the short - term. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the demand side from Asia to Europe [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping companies have different quotes for different routes and time periods. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK15 quote is $1470/2360, and WEEK16 is $1390/2220. HPL has different quotes for different months' sailings [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply Analysis - Geopolitical: Trump will give a national speech on the Iranian issue on Thursday morning [2]. - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 to 2029 are provided [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The weekly average capacity from China to European base ports varies from March to May. There are also TBNs and empty sailings in April and May [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - EC2604 contract: The Maersk WEEK16 price continues to decline. The settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on April 13th, 20th, and 27th. The estimated settlement price is affected by Maersk's price changes [4]. - EC2605 contract: The price in the second half of April is weak and may decline. The shipping companies will try to support prices from May to August. The 5 - month contract will enter the delivery logic after the April contract is settled [5]. - EC2606, EC2607, and EC2608 contracts: These contracts are expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption, small delivery pressure of large ships, and high demand growth [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Arbitrage: Long EC2606 and short EC2610 [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of March 31, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 35,422.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,052.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided, and the SCFI and SCFIS prices of different routes are also given [8].

Group 1: Oil and Gas Exploration - Devon Energy and Diamondback Energy are highlighted as attractive investments due to their focus on the Permian Basin and potential benefits from rising oil prices [2] - Chevron's integrated operations allow it to benefit from both upstream (exploration and production) and downstream (refining) activities, particularly due to favorable crack spreads [3][4] Group 2: Refining Sector - The 3-2-1 crack spread has significantly increased to over $54 from less than $20 at the beginning of the year, benefiting refiners like Valero Energy and PBF Energy [6][7] - Valero Energy has a diversified business model, while PBF Energy is a pure-play refiner, both expected to outperform as long as the crack spread remains wide [7] Group 3: Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) - Woodside Energy Group is well-positioned to supply LNG to Asian markets, with a 4.5% dividend yield and a U.S. listing [10] - Cheniere Energy is the largest U.S. LNG exporter, currently at maximum capacity but expanding its export capacity imminently [11] - Equinor, a leading LNG exporter from Norway, will help fill the supply gap for European countries previously reliant on LNG from the Strait of Hormuz [11] Group 4: Shipping and Fertilizers - Flex LNG is positioned to benefit from higher LNG shipping rates and demand due to longer shipping distances if LNG cannot reach Asia through the Strait [12] - CF Industries, a U.S.-focused fertilizer producer, is expected to benefit from its manufacturing facilities and gas supply in the context of reduced global fertilizer flows through the Strait [13]

Market Overview - Rising oil prices have caused significant turmoil in the global market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.7%, entering correction territory, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.1%, deepening its correction. The S&P 500 also fell about 1.7%, marking its fifth consecutive weekly loss, the longest losing streak since 2022 [1][2]. Oil Market Impact - The recent spike in oil prices, driven by tensions in the Middle East, has led to market chaos. The outlook for oil prices is uncertain, as the duration of the disruption and the extent of damage to energy infrastructure will play crucial roles. With existing infrastructure already impacted, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels soon [2][4]. Technology Sector Performance - The "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap stocks have significantly contributed to market losses, shedding over $330 billion in market value in a single session and approximately $870 billion over the week. Shares of major tech companies have declined, with Meta particularly affected by a ruling related to social media addiction concerns [3][10]. Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing attacks in the Middle East have heightened market anxiety, with fears that the conflict could extend into April and beyond. The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz raises concerns about global economic stability, potentially increasing inflationary pressures and keeping interest rates elevated, which is detrimental to growth sectors like technology [4][10]. ETF Performance - Several ETFs have performed well amidst the market turmoil: - Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF (BWET) increased by 19.1% last week, reflecting the impact of rising oil prices on shipping [7]. - Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP) rose by 13.8%, driven by supply concerns and energy transition bets [8]. - YieldMax Short COIN Option Income Strategy ETF (FIAT) gained 12.6%, providing indirect inverse exposure to Coinbase's stock [11]. - ProShares S&P Global Core Battery Metals ETF (ION) increased by 6.5%, focusing on companies involved in battery metals [12]. - iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) rose by 17.4%, reflecting increased market volatility [13].

Core Insights - Seanergy Maritime Holdings (SHIP) is implementing a disciplined fleet expansion strategy focused on capital allocation, operational efficiency, and long-term competitiveness in the dry bulk shipping sector [1] - The company has acquired two modern scrubber-fitted Capesize newbuildings and divested an older vessel, aligning with its goal to modernize its fleet [1][9] Fleet Expansion Strategy - The recent transactions expand Seanergy's newbuilding program to five vessels, including four Capesizes and one Newcastlemax, with a total investment of approximately $384 million [2] - The acquisition of two 181,500 dwt Capesize vessels from a Japanese shipyard strengthens the company's position in the Capesize segment, with one vessel scheduled for delivery between Q2 and Q3 of 2027 [2] - The second vessel is structured under a 10-year bareboat-in agreement with a purchase option, providing flexibility in capital deployment and supporting risk management [3] Divestment and Operational Efficiency - The sale of the 2010-built M/V Squireship for $29.5 million allows the company to realize an accounting profit and generate net proceeds of approximately $13.5 million, while also reducing the average fleet age [4] - This divestment aligns with the broader objective of fleet renewal, improving operational efficiency and environmental performance [4] Market Positioning - The fleet expansion strategy enhances fleet quality, reduces operating costs, and positions the company to benefit from tightening supply and rising demand for modern, fuel-efficient vessels [5] - SHIP's shares have gained in double digits over the past six months, outperforming the Zacks Transportation-Shipping industry during the same period [8] Valuation Metrics - SHIP trades at a 12-month forward price-to-sales ratio of 1.37X, which is considered inexpensive compared to its industry [12]

Military and Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced that the military campaign in Iran is "two weeks ahead of schedule," with U.S. forces having struck over 11,000 targets and neutralized Iran's naval capabilities by destroying over 150 ships [2][9] - Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated that the upcoming days will be crucial, and the U.S. will continue military actions until a formal agreement is reached [3] Semiconductor Industry - Nvidia has made a strategic investment of $2 billion in Marvell to enhance its AI infrastructure through the NVLink Fusion platform, which integrates custom accelerators and networking silicon [4][9] - Following the announcement, Marvell's shares increased by more than 10% in premarket trading, indicating positive market reception and analysts' views of Nvidia's move as a consolidation of the AI hardware supply chain [5] Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway invested $17 billion in U.S. Treasury bills, reflecting a defensive strategy amid market volatility while maintaining a bullish outlook on core holdings like Apple [6][7][9] - The significant investment in short-term government debt suggests that Berkshire is preparing for potential market pullbacks due to geopolitical instability [7] Pharmaceutical Industry - Novo Nordisk launched a subscription model for its weight-loss drug Wegovy, offering plans starting at $249 per month through telehealth partners, aiming to regain market share [8][10][11] - The pricing strategy is designed to undercut competitors and lower entry barriers for self-pay patients, with various subscription tiers available [11] Shipping and Aviation Sectors - Maersk has implemented a Temporary Emergency Bunker Surcharge due to rising global logistics costs driven by fuel volatility and supply chain issues [12] - Lufthansa is considering grounding 20 aircraft as the ongoing conflict in the Middle East affects flight operations, leading to reduced expectations for ECB intervention in monetary policy [13]

MOL Group Corporate Management Plan Taking the leap to becoming a global social infrastructure company March 31, 2026 © 2026 Mitsui O.S.K. Lines, Ltd. A bulk carrier equipped with the Wind Challenger, a hard sail wind-assisted propulsion system On to the Next Stage As a social infrastructure company with its origins in ocean transportation, the Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Group is committed to expanding its business fields while pursuing sustainable growth. Under the Group Corporate Management Plan "BLUE ACTION 203 ...