Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

New chair to be elected at the next scheduled meeting of the Board of DirectorsATLANTA, June 3, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) today announced Chairman Claude Mongeau has resigned from the Board of Directors this week for personal reasons. The board will elect a new chair at its next scheduled meeting later this month. "We are deeply grateful for Claude's leadership over the past six years," said Norfolk Southern President and CEO Mark R. George. "He has put outsized time and ...

MONTREAL, June 02, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Ghislain Houle, Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer of CN (TSX: CNR) (NYSE: CNI), will address the Wells Fargo 2025 Industrials and Materials Conference on June 11, 2025, at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Time (ET). CN will provide a live webcast via the Investors section of its website at www.cn.ca/investors. A replay of the webcast will be available following the event. About CNCN powers the economy by safely transporting more than 300 million tons of natura ...

Core Points - Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) has received an arbitrator's ruling establishing new collective bargaining agreements with the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) for Train and Engine (T&E) and Rail Canada Traffic Controllers (RCTC) divisions [1][2] - The arbitrator's ruling results in new four-year contracts effective from January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2027, which include annual wage increases of 3% [3][4] - The agreements aim to bring labor stability to CPKC operations in Canada, ensuring efficient and dependable rail service [5] Summary by Sections Collective Bargaining Agreements - The new contracts cover approximately 3,200 locomotive engineers, conductors, train, and yard workers, as well as about 80 rail traffic controllers in Canada [2] - The agreements do not require ratification, streamlining the implementation process [3] Labor Stability - These agreements follow the earlier ratification of three new collective agreements for thousands of mechanical, engineering, clerical, and intermodal employees in Canada [4] - The establishment of these multi-year agreements is expected to enhance operational efficiency and service reliability for CPKC [5] Company Overview - CPKC is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States, and Mexico, with a network of approximately 20,000 route miles [10] - The company employs around 20,000 railroaders and provides extensive freight transportation services and logistics solutions across North America [10]

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Bill Ackman, through Pershing Square Capital Management, is actively managing a $12 billion stock portfolio and aims to emulate Berkshire Hathaway's success [1] Group 1: Recent Investment Moves - Pershing Square recently sold its stake in Canadian Pacific Kansas City, a decision made "with regret," to invest in Amazon at what they consider a "uniquely attractive time" [2][7] - The sale of Canadian Pacific was influenced by its sensitivity to economic conditions and tariffs, as noted by Pershing's Chief Investment Officer Ryan Israel [6] Group 2: Canadian Pacific Kansas City Overview - Canadian Pacific Kansas City, formed after a $31 billion acquisition of Kansas City Southern, is the only railroad company with a single-line railway connecting Canada, the U.S., and Mexico [5] - The stock has appreciated nearly 67% over the past five years, indicating strong performance [6] Group 3: Amazon Investment Rationale - Pershing Square already holds shares in Alphabet and views Amazon favorably due to its dual strong business segments: retail e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS) [7][8] - AWS has shown significant growth, with a 17% year-over-year revenue increase in the first quarter, and is expected to capture a larger share of IT workloads moving to the cloud [9] Group 4: Market Position and Valuation - Amazon's current valuation is less than 34 times forward earnings, which is lower than its five-year average of 39, making it an attractive investment opportunity [10] - Despite potential consumer spending slowdowns in a recession, Amazon's diversified revenue streams and strong market position in cloud services are seen as mitigating factors [10]

Company Overview - Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) is the first and only single-line transnational railway linking Canada, the United States, and Mexico, providing access to major ports from Vancouver to Atlantic Canada to the Gulf Coast to Lázaro Cárdenas, Mexico [2] - CPKC operates approximately 20,000 route miles and employs 20,000 railroaders, offering unparalleled rail service and network reach to key markets across North America [2] - The company is focused on growth alongside its customers, providing a suite of freight transportation services, logistics solutions, and supply chain expertise [2] Upcoming Event - CPKC's Executive Vice-President and Chief Financial Officer Nadeem Velani, along with Executive Vice-President and Chief Operating Officer Mark Redd, will address the 2025 Wells Fargo Industrials & Materials Securities Conference on June 10, 2025, at 8:00 a.m. CT [1] - The event will be accessible via a live audio webcast, with a replay available after the conclusion of the event [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the North American freight rail industry Core Insights - Revenue growth in Q1 2025 was primarily driven by Canadian and Mexican railroads, with US railroads lagging behind due to declining coal traffic and insufficient growth in other areas [6][9] - The average freight revenue per unit increased for Canadian and Mexican railroads, while US carriers experienced significant revenue yield declines [15][16] - Intermodal traffic saw growth across most railroads, particularly for Union Pacific, while carload volumes generally decreased [12][18] - Operating ratios for most US carriers remained in the mid-60s, with Union Pacific being the only carrier around 60% [32][36] - Employment across the industry generally declined, with significant reductions noted in Eastern carriers [45][46] Revenue Analysis - Total revenue for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 showed varied performance among the major railroads, with Canadian National Railway (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) achieving peak revenue quarters [7][9] - The total revenue units for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 indicated a mixed performance, with some railroads experiencing growth while others saw declines [13][18] Operating Performance - The adjusted operating ratio for Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024 showed a range of performance, with CPKC and CN maintaining lower ratios compared to their peers [33][36] - Operating income for CPKC and Norfolk Southern (NS) reached their highest levels in four years, largely influenced by specific operational recoveries [56][59] Capital Expenditures - Capital expenditures varied significantly, with CPKC, CSX, and Union Pacific increasing their investments, while others reduced spending [62][63] Cash Flow and Financial Metrics - Year-to-date free cash flow showed mixed results, with BNSF, NS, and CPKC reporting double-digit increases [65][66] - Return on invested capital (ROIC) improvements were noted only for NS and Union Pacific over the past 12 months [69][70] Stock Performance - Railroad stock performance has lagged behind the S&P 500, with a declining trend observed since Q2 2024 [72][73] Operational Efficiency - Employee productivity generally increased across the industry, with only CSX and Ferromex (FXE) experiencing slight declines [53][54] - Significant reductions in injuries and incidents were reported across most carriers, indicating improvements in safety metrics [79][80]

MONTREAL, May 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CN (TSX: CNR) (NYSE: CNI) announced today plans to invest approximately $290 million CAD in Saskatchewan, as part of its 2025 capital investment program. This investment will support track maintenance and strategic infrastructure initiatives in the province. This includes major projects to support customer initiatives and our agriculture industry partners to improve the movement of grain and fertilizers. These investments will help ensure the safe movement of goods ...

MONTREAL, May 26, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CN (TSX: CNR) (NYSE: CNI) announced today plans to invest approximately $475 million CAD in Quebec, as part of its 2025 capital investment program. This investment will support track maintenance and strategic infrastructure initiatives in Quebec. This includes projects to improve the efficiency of CN’s operations at its Taschereau railyard in Dorval, as well as a number of information technology projects that will help better support our customers and modernize our ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation and logistics industry Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in U.S. imports, with a 6.1% week-over-week increase as of May 18, outperforming seasonal expectations by 980 basis points and showing a 2.8% year-over-year increase [2] - Spot rates for truckload transportation have surged, with dry van rates increasing by 6.1% week-over-week, outperforming historical averages [3] - There are concerns regarding potential freight demand impacts due to tariffs, with expectations of a flat outlook for dry van spot rates in 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Import & Congestion Monitor - Container bookings from China to the U.S. are at five-year lows, down 27% compared to 2023, indicating subdued future demand [2] - The report notes a recovery in container imports at the Port of LA/LB, which increased by 24% week-over-week [2] Truckload and Rail Data - Spot rates for dry van, reefers, and flatbed have all increased week-over-week, with dry van rates now 4% higher year-over-year [3] - The dry van load-to-truck ratio increased by 57% week-over-week, indicating a tightening market [6] - Rail management teams express skepticism about the feasibility of transcontinental mergers due to regulatory barriers [7] Airfreight & Surface Transportation - Airfreight rates have been monitored closely due to tariff implications, with significant declines observed in key freight lanes, particularly the China-U.S. lane, which fell by 6% week-over-week [10] - The overall airfreight market is experiencing broad-based weakness, with all major lanes underperforming seasonal expectations year-to-date [10] Rail Performance - The report card for railroads indicates varying performance levels, with some railroads rated as excellent while others are fair or poor [9] - Regulatory challenges are highlighted as a significant barrier to potential mergers in the rail industry, with environmental impact studies being particularly burdensome [7]