Core Viewpoint - Analysts forecast Altria (MO) to report quarterly earnings of $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, while revenues are expected to be $5.19 billion, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been adjusted downward by 0.5% over the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3] Revenue Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net revenue- All Other/ Financial Services' to reach $14.00 million, a significant increase of 366.7% from the prior-year quarter [5] - 'Revenues net of excise taxes- Oral tobacco products' are projected at $701.72 million, showing a 2.1% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Revenues net of excise taxes- Smokeable Products' are expected to be $4.43 billion, indicating a decline of 3.3% compared to the previous year [6] Operating Income Estimates - The average prediction for 'Operating Income (Loss)/ Reported OCI- Oral tobacco products' is $459.60 million, compared to $97.00 million reported in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Adjusted OCI- Smokeable Products' is anticipated to reach $2.86 billion, slightly up from $2.83 billion reported in the same quarter of the previous year [7] Market Performance - Altria shares have returned +1.4% over the past month, underperforming compared to the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +4.6% change [7] - Altria holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to mirror overall market performance in the near future [7]

Company Overview and Strategic Direction - Philip Morris International is a leading global producer of tobacco and nicotine products, operating in approximately 170 markets with well-known brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [2] - The company is transitioning from traditional combustible cigarettes to smoke-free alternatives, including heated tobacco devices, oral nicotine pouches, and electronic vapor products [3] Quarterly Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, adjusted earnings per share were $1.91, exceeding the estimate of $1.86 by 2.7%, while GAAP revenue was $10.1 billion, falling short by 2.1% [1] - Smoke-free products accounted for 41% of net revenue, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year, with gross profit from these products exceeding 42% of total gross profit [4] - Shipments of smoke-free products rose by 11.8%, with net revenue in this segment increasing by 15.2% and gross profit up by 23.3% [4] Product Performance - IQOS generated over $3 billion in net revenue, holding a 76% share of the global heat-not-burn category, with sales volumes in Europe growing by 9.1% and in Japan by 7.8% [5] - ZYN pouches saw a global shipment volume increase of 26.5%, with U.S. shipments rising over 40% to 190 million cans [6] - VEEV e-vapor product volumes more than doubled, achieving top market positions in six European countries [6] Traditional Cigarette Segment - Traditional cigarette volumes declined by 1.5%, but revenue for this segment grew by 2.1% due to strong pricing [7] - Marketing, Administration, and Research Costs increased by 16.0% compared to the previous year [7] Regional Performance - Europe's organic revenue rose by 7.3%, driven by smoke-free growth, while the Americas experienced a 17% increase in organic net revenues, primarily from oral nicotine [8] - The European market faced a 1.7% decline in shipment volume, mainly due to cigarette declines in specific countries [8] Future Outlook - The company raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $7.43, reflecting an 11.5% to 13.5% growth from last year's adjusted EPS of $6.57 [10] - Organic net revenue growth is forecasted at 6-8%, with smoke-free product volumes expected to grow by 12-14% and cigarette volumes projected to decline by about 2% [10] - Capital expenditure guidance is set at $1.6 billion, primarily for smoke-free product scale-up, with operating cash flow expected around $11.5 billion [10]

Group 1 - The article discusses a previous analysis on Altria Group, Inc. (NYSE: MO) stock, highlighting that Wall Street may have overlooked significant factors affecting the stock's performance [1] - Sensor Unlimited, an economist with a PhD, has been covering various financial markets including the mortgage and banking sectors for the past decade [2] - The focus of Sensor Unlimited's work includes asset allocation and ETFs related to the overall market, bonds, banking, and housing markets [2]

Core Viewpoint - Altria is expected to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite a decline in revenues for the quarter ended June 2025, with the consensus outlook indicating potential impacts on its stock price based on actual results compared to estimates [1][3]. Earnings Expectations - The consensus estimate for Altria's quarterly earnings is $1.37 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +4.6%, while revenues are projected to be $5.19 billion, down 1.7% from the previous year [3]. - A positive earnings surprise could lead to a stock price increase, while a miss could result in a decline [2]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.51%, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Altria is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +1.03%, suggesting a bullish outlook from analysts [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive Earnings ESP reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Altria currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, which, combined with the positive Earnings ESP, suggests a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Altria exceeded the expected earnings of $1.17 per share by delivering $1.23, resulting in a surprise of +5.13% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Altria has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [14]. Conclusion - Altria is positioned as a compelling candidate for an earnings beat, but investors should consider other factors influencing stock performance beyond just earnings results [17].

Core Viewpoint - Philip Morris (PM) is experiencing significant selling pressure, with a 10.4% decline over the past four weeks, but is now positioned for a potential trend reversal as it enters oversold territory, supported by analyst expectations of better-than-previously predicted earnings [1]. Group 1: Technical Indicators - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key technical indicator used to identify oversold conditions, with a reading below 30 typically indicating that a stock is oversold [2]. - PM's current RSI reading is 27.52, suggesting that the heavy selling may be exhausting itself, indicating a potential bounce back towards equilibrium in supply and demand [5]. - The RSI helps investors identify entry opportunities when a stock is undervalued due to unwarranted selling pressure [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Indicators - There is a strong consensus among sell-side analysts that PM will report better earnings, leading to a 0.5% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the last 30 days [7]. - An upward trend in earnings estimate revisions is typically associated with price appreciation in the near term, further supporting the potential for a rebound in PM's stock price [7]. - PM holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate trends and EPS surprises, indicating a strong potential for a turnaround [8].

Financial Performance - Philip Morris International shares sank after missing quarterly sales estimates [1] Market Trends - Demand for cigarettes continued to decline [1]

Group 1 - Philip Morris International Inc. held its Q2 2025 earnings call on July 22, 2025, with key participants including CFO Emmanuel Babeau and VP of Investor Relations James R. Bushnell [1][2] - The company released detailed information regarding its Q2 2025 results, which is accessible on its website [3] - A glossary of terms and reconciliations for non-GAAP financial measures is available in the company's Form 8-K and on the Investor Relations website [4]

Core Insights - Altria Group's on! nicotine pouch brand is experiencing significant growth, with shipments increasing by 18% to 39.3 million cans in Q1 2025, contrasting with declines in traditional brands [1][8] - The on! brand now holds an 8.8% share of the total oral tobacco market and a 17.9% share of the nicotine pouch segment, despite rising competition [2][8] - Helix, the manufacturer of on!, has successfully increased brand awareness to over 60% through its "It's On!" campaign, enhancing consumer loyalty [3][8] Market Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN brand leads the nicotine pouch category, shipping over 200 million cans in Q1 2025, a 63% increase year over year, maintaining over 70% of category value [5] - Turning Point Brands reported a nearly tenfold increase in modern oral revenues to $22.3 million in Q1 2025, raising its full-year nicotine pouch sales forecast to $80-$95 million [6] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Altria's shares have declined by 2.6% in the past month, while the industry saw a smaller decline of 0.8% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Altria is 10.8X, lower than the industry's average of 15.21X [10] - Zacks Consensus Estimates indicate year-over-year earnings growth of 4.9% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026 [11]

Company Performance - Philip Morris International CEO Jacek Olczak discusses Q2 earnings [1] Product Strategy - Focus on smoke-free products [1]

Core Insights - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) reported strong second-quarter 2025 results, with both net sales and earnings increasing year over year, although net sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate while earnings exceeded it [1][10] - The company has raised its full-year guidance reflecting robust momentum across regions and product categories, particularly in smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN [1][10] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter were $1.91, a 20.1% increase year over year, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.85 [2][10] - Net revenues reached $10,140 million, a 7.1% increase on a reported basis and 6.8% on an organic basis, but fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10,255 million [3][10] - Adjusted operating income rose 16.1% to $4,246 million, driven by improved pricing and positive volume/mix, despite increased costs in marketing and administration [6][10] Product Performance - Revenues from smoke-free products increased 15.2%, accounting for 41% of total revenues, with strong performance in both IQOS and ZYN [5][10] - Net revenues from combustible products grew 2.1% year over year, supported by strong pricing despite expected volume declines [4][10] Regional Performance - European region net revenues grew 8.7% to $4,234 million, driven by positive pricing and volume mix, although total shipment volumes decreased [8][10] - In the Americas, revenues rose 12.7% to $1,272 million, primarily due to nicotine pouch sales, with total shipment volumes increasing [11][10] - The SSEA, CIS & MEA regions saw net revenues increase by 5.6% to $2,926 million, while the EA, AU & PMI GTR regions grew 2.1% to $1,708 million [8][9] Future Outlook - For 2025, adjusted EPS is now projected in the range of $7.43-$7.56, indicating 13-15% growth, up from the previous range of $7.36-$7.49 [13][10] - PM expects net revenues to increase 6-8% on an organic basis and operating income to rise 11-12.5% [15][10] - The company anticipates operating cash flow exceeding $11.5 billion in 2025, with capital expenditures around $1.6 billion to support smoke-free business investments [15][10]