Key Takeaways Altria's on! shipments rose 26.5% in Q2, lifting oral tobacco share to 8.7% and boosting margins.Philip Morris lifted 2025 EPS guidance to $7.43-$7.56, targeting 13-15% year-over-year growth.Philip Morris achieved $500M in cost savings in H1 2025, advancing toward a $2B efficiency goal.Altria Group, Inc. ((MO) and Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) stand as two of the most recognized names in the global tobacco industry. While Altria primarily operates within the United States, Philip Morr ...

Key Takeaways Altria reached a new 52-week high of $67.87, rising nearly 15% over the past month.EPS grew 8.3% in Q2 2025 to $1.44, aided by pricing, efficiencies, and share repurchases.on! nicotine pouches surged 26.5% in shipments, lifting oral tobacco income and margins.Altria Group, Inc. (MO) hit a new 52-week high of $67.87 yesterday, a significant milestone that has caught investors’ attention. The company’s strong earnings, growth in oral tobacco, and shareholder returns have set a positive tone for ...

Key Takeaways Philip Morris trades at a forward P/E of 20.93X, above the industry and sector averages.Smoke-free products made up 41% of revenues in Q2, growing 15.2% y/y, led by IQOS, ZYN and VEEV.Philip Morris targets $2B in cost efficiencies between 2024 and 2026.Philip Morris International Inc. ((PM) is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 20.93X, representing a significant premium compared with the Zacks Tobacco industry average of 15.31X and the broader Consumer ...

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is experiencing a resurgence in stock performance, with a 30% total return for shareholders in 2025, outperforming the market over the past five years [1] Financial Performance - Altria's dividend yield is currently at 6.25%, significantly higher than the market average, providing stable cash flows to investors [2] - Despite a 10% year-over-year decline in cigarette volumes, Altria's smokeable products segment grew operating earnings by 4.4% to $2.9 billion, driven by price increases and growth in the cigars segment [3][4] - The company has reduced its shares outstanding by 14% over the last five years through stock buybacks, which supports an increase in dividend per share [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Altria is focusing on alternative nicotine products to drive long-term growth, having acquired the NJOY electronic vaping brand and seeing a 26.5% year-over-year volume growth in its On! nicotine pouch brand [10][11] - Management has time to invest in these new categories before traditional cash flows from cigarettes diminish, but significant growth in these areas will be necessary for future relevance [12] Investment Considerations - Altria is recommended for its current dividend yield and growth potential, while investors should monitor the performance of its new nicotine products for signs of success [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 8.3% to $1.44 in the second quarter and by 7.2% for the first half [19] - Adjusted operating companies income in the Smokable Products segment grew by 4.2% to $2.9 billion in the second quarter and by 3.5% to $5.5 billion in the first half [19] - Adjusted OCI margins expanded to 64.5% for both the second quarter and the first half [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Smokable Products segment, domestic cigarette volumes declined by 10.2% in the second quarter and 11.9% for the first half [20] - Oral nicotine pouches, particularly ON!, reported a shipment volume increase of 26.5% to 52.1 million cans in the second quarter [11] - Adjusted OCI for the Oral Tobacco Products segment grew by 10.9% in the second quarter and 5.5% in the first half [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-vapor category included over 20.5 million vapers, up by over 1.9 million year over year [14] - Disposable vapers increased by an estimated 2.7 million to approximately 14.4 million, representing over 60% of the e-vapor category [14] - Domestic cigarette volumes at the industry level declined by an estimated 8.5% in the second quarter [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to shape a fully regulated industry and provide expanded product choices for adult nicotine consumers [8] - Continued focus on driving trial, building long-term equity, and increasing profitability in the ON! brand [12] - The company is actively exploring potential next steps regarding the nJoy e-vapor product line, including an appeal against patent disputes [13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong performance of operating companies despite challenging market conditions [18] - The macroeconomic environment remains dynamic, with inflation and consumer confidence being key factors to monitor [32] - The company raised the lower end of its 2025 guidance range, expecting adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $5.35 to $5.45 [25] Other Important Information - The company returned over $4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in the first half of the year [8] - The total debt to EBITDA ratio as of June 30 was 2.0 times, in line with the target [26] - The company is advocating for more coordinated actions against illicit e-vapor products to clean up the marketplace [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the raised guidance range and consumer environment - Management highlighted the dynamic market and the need to monitor adult tobacco consumer behaviors due to inflationary pressures [31] Question: Update on nJoy e-vapor product development - Management confirmed that product development for the nJoy ACE device is progressing, with plans to file for FDA approval [35] Question: Long-term EPS growth outlook - Management remains confident in achieving mid-single-digit EPS growth through FY 2028, despite economic strains on consumers [44] Question: Strategy for the Basic brand - The company is using targeted analytics to maintain consumer loyalty and expand the Basic brand's presence in discount segments [49] Question: Impact of illicit vape crackdowns - Management noted that while enforcement actions are increasing, it is too early to determine their overall impact on the market [58] Question: Tariff impacts on business - Tariffs have had some impact on costs, particularly in supply chain materials, but are not viewed as material to overall business performance [98]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted diluted earnings per share increased by 8.3% to $1.44 in Q2 2025 and by 7.2% for the first half, driven by robust adjusted operating companies income growth and share repurchases [19][25] - Adjusted operating companies income for the Smokable Products segment grew by 4.2% to $2.9 billion in Q2 and by 3.5% to $5.5 billion in the first half [19][20] - Adjusted OCI margins expanded to 64.5% for both Q2 and the first half [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Oral nicotine pouches, particularly ON!, were the primary growth driver, with reported shipment volume increasing by 26.5% to 52.1 million cans year-over-year [9][23] - Domestic cigarette volumes in the Smokable Products segment declined by 10.2% in Q2 and 11.9% for the first half, with adjusted estimates showing declines of approximately 10.5% [20][21] - The Oral Tobacco Products segment saw adjusted OCI grow by 10.9% in Q2, primarily driven by ON!'s strong performance [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The e-vapor category included over 20.5 million vapers, up by 1.9 million year-over-year, with disposable vapers increasing to approximately 14.4 million [14][15] - The flavored disposable market continues to drive e-vapor category growth, representing over 60% of the category [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on shaping a fully regulated industry and expanding product choices for adult nicotine consumers, while also advocating for enforcement against unregulated products [7][14] - The strategy includes targeted launches and promotions for the Basic brand to retain consumers in the portfolio while addressing macroeconomic pressures [21][49] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong performance of operating companies despite challenging market conditions and inflationary pressures [18][32] - The company raised the lower end of its 2025 guidance range, expecting adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $5.35 to $5.45, reflecting a growth rate of 3% to 5% from 2024 [25][26] Other Important Information - The company returned significant value to shareholders, paying approximately $3.5 billion in dividends and repurchasing 10.4 million shares for $600 million in the first half of the year [26][27] - The total debt to EBITDA ratio as of June 30 was 2.0 times, in line with the target [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on the raised guidance range and expectations for the second half - Management acknowledged the strong first half results and the dynamic market conditions, emphasizing the need to monitor consumer behavior amid inflation [30][32] Question: Update on nJoy e-vapor product development - Management confirmed that product development for the new nJoy device is progressing, with plans to file for FDA approval once ready [34][36] Question: Long-term EPS growth outlook - Management remains confident in achieving mid-single-digit EPS growth through FY 2028, despite current economic strains on consumers [43][44] Question: Strategy for the Basic brand and discount share - The company is strategically repositioning Basic as a discount brand while using data analytics to target consumers effectively [49][50] Question: Impact of enforcement on illicit vapes and cigarette volumes - Management noted that while enforcement actions are increasing, it is too early to determine their full impact on the market [55][58] Question: Clarification on tariff impacts - Management indicated that while tariffs have affected costs, they do not view them as material to overall business performance [96][97]

Altria's Second-Quarter and First-Half 2025 Earnings Conference Call July 30, 2025 1 | ALCS | Q2 2025 | 7.30.25 | For Investor Purposes ONLY Safe Harbor Statement Statements, including earnings guidance, in this presentation that are not reported financial results or other historical information are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and expectations, and are not guarantees ...

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group, Inc. is expected to report a decline in revenues for Q2 2025, while earnings are projected to show growth compared to the previous year [1][9]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 revenues is $5.2 billion, reflecting a 1.7% decrease from the same period last year [1]. - The consensus estimate for earnings per share (EPS) has increased to $1.37, indicating a 4.6% growth year-over-year [1][9]. Earnings Performance and Predictions - Altria has a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 1.3%, with the last quarter's earnings exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.1% [2]. - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.03% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a potential earnings beat [4][3]. Factors Influencing Q2 Earnings - Regulatory pressures, particularly the ITC's exclusion order on NJOY ACE, have negatively impacted Altria's smoke-free product portfolio [5]. - The cigarette business is facing volume pressures due to consumer downtrading and competition from illicit flavored disposable vapes [5]. - Despite these challenges, Altria's strong pricing power and cost control measures are expected to support profitability [6][7]. Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Altria's stock has increased by 2.6%, slightly below the Zacks Tobacco industry's growth of 2.7% and significantly trailing the S&P 500's 15.5% rise [8]. - Altria's stock performance has outpaced Philip Morris International, which declined by 6.8%, but underperformed Turning Point Brands and British American Tobacco [8]. Valuation Analysis - Altria shares are trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.96, below the industry average of 14.48, indicating attractive value for investors [11]. - Compared to key competitors, Altria's P/E ratio is significantly lower than Philip Morris International (20.11) and Turning Point Brands (21.54), while being comparable to British American Tobacco (10.94) [13]. Investment Outlook - Altria faces a mixed backdrop with regulatory challenges and volume pressures, but resilient pricing power and disciplined cost control may provide stability [14]. - Investors may consider holding positions or selectively adding to their investments, while monitoring management's updates on product pipeline and strategic execution [14].

Core Insights - The tobacco sector presents two main investment options: Altria Group, Inc. and Philip Morris International Inc., each with distinct market strategies and growth trajectories towards a smoke-free future [1][2] Altria Group, Inc. - Altria focuses on the U.S. market, leveraging its Marlboro brand while expanding into alternatives like NJOY and oral nicotine pouches [2] - The company achieved a 10.8% net price realization in smokeable products in Q1 2025, contributing to a 2.7% increase in adjusted operating income [3][9] - Altria's oral nicotine pouch brand, on!, saw an 18% increase in shipments, capturing 8.8% of the oral tobacco category and 17.9% of the nicotine pouch segment [4][9] - Despite setbacks in the e-vapor category, Altria is refining its product pipeline and advocating for regulatory reforms to combat the rise of illicit disposable e-vapor products, which account for over 60% of the U.S. market [5] - The cigarette industry faces challenges, with shipment volumes declining due to macroeconomic pressures and the growth of illegal e-vapor products, impacting low-income smokers [6] Philip Morris International Inc. - Philip Morris is advancing its transformation strategy with a strong smoke-free portfolio, including IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV, and has approximately 41.5 million adult users by Q2 2025 [7][9] - IQOS is the primary driver of growth, with accelerated adoption in key markets supported by commercial initiatives and product innovations [8][10] - The company offers smoke-free products in 97 markets, with nearly half providing multiple product categories, enhancing its global reach [10] - Philip Morris faces challenges such as currency volatility and increasing regulatory risks, particularly regarding nicotine pouch marketing [11] Financial Performance and Valuation - Altria's forward P/E ratio is 10.96, appealing to income-focused investors, while Philip Morris has a higher multiple of 20.12, reflecting its global presence and momentum in smoke-free products [15] - Over the past month, Altria gained 2.1%, while Philip Morris dropped 11.6%, underperforming the S&P 500's 3.4% rise [14] Conclusion - Philip Morris is better positioned for long-term growth with its aggressive pivot towards a smoke-free future and strong global traction, while Altria's focus on domestic stability and pricing strength supports income-focused investors but faces more headwinds [16]

Company Overview and Strategic Direction - Philip Morris International is a leading global producer of tobacco and nicotine products, operating in approximately 170 markets with well-known brands such as Marlboro, Parliament, IQOS, ZYN, and VEEV [2] - The company is transitioning from traditional combustible cigarettes to smoke-free alternatives, including heated tobacco devices, oral nicotine pouches, and electronic vapor products [3] Quarterly Performance Highlights - In Q2 2025, adjusted earnings per share were $1.91, exceeding the estimate of $1.86 by 2.7%, while GAAP revenue was $10.1 billion, falling short by 2.1% [1] - Smoke-free products accounted for 41% of net revenue, an increase of 2.9 percentage points year-over-year, with gross profit from these products exceeding 42% of total gross profit [4] - Shipments of smoke-free products rose by 11.8%, with net revenue in this segment increasing by 15.2% and gross profit up by 23.3% [4] Product Performance - IQOS generated over $3 billion in net revenue, holding a 76% share of the global heat-not-burn category, with sales volumes in Europe growing by 9.1% and in Japan by 7.8% [5] - ZYN pouches saw a global shipment volume increase of 26.5%, with U.S. shipments rising over 40% to 190 million cans [6] - VEEV e-vapor product volumes more than doubled, achieving top market positions in six European countries [6] Traditional Cigarette Segment - Traditional cigarette volumes declined by 1.5%, but revenue for this segment grew by 2.1% due to strong pricing [7] - Marketing, Administration, and Research Costs increased by 16.0% compared to the previous year [7] Regional Performance - Europe's organic revenue rose by 7.3%, driven by smoke-free growth, while the Americas experienced a 17% increase in organic net revenues, primarily from oral nicotine [8] - The European market faced a 1.7% decline in shipment volume, mainly due to cigarette declines in specific countries [8] Future Outlook - The company raised its full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to $7.43, reflecting an 11.5% to 13.5% growth from last year's adjusted EPS of $6.57 [10] - Organic net revenue growth is forecasted at 6-8%, with smoke-free product volumes expected to grow by 12-14% and cigarette volumes projected to decline by about 2% [10] - Capital expenditure guidance is set at $1.6 billion, primarily for smoke-free product scale-up, with operating cash flow expected around $11.5 billion [10]