Core Insights - PayPal's first-quarter earnings report highlights significant financial performance and management's strategic outlook for the company [1] Financial Performance - The earnings report indicates a strong revenue growth, with specific figures to be detailed in the video [1] - Management provided insights into key metrics that reflect the company's operational efficiency and market position [1] Management Commentary - Key comments from management during the earnings call emphasize future growth strategies and market expansion plans [1] - The management team addressed investor concerns and outlined their vision for enhancing shareholder value [1]

Core Insights - Consumer spending remains resilient and strong, with no signs of weakening observed in the U.S. during fiscal Q2 through April 21 [1][3][8] - Visa continues to experience growth in digital payments technologies, with nearly 50% of global eCommerce transactions now tokenized and tap to pay penetration reaching 76% globally [1][5][4] Financial Performance - U.S. payments volume grew by 6%, while international payments volume increased by 9%. Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, rose by 13% in constant dollars [4] - Debit volumes in the U.S. were up 9% in constant dollar terms, outpacing credit volumes which grew by 4% [4] - Total credentials increased by 7%, with Visa adding 1 billion tokens to reach 13.7 billion [4] Business Model and Strategy - Visa's diverse business model, including growth in commercial payments, debit and credit, and stablecoins, has shown resilience despite macroeconomic uncertainty [2][11] - The "tap to everything" strategy has led to the addition of 2 million transacting device terminals since the last quarter [5] - Stablecoins are identified as a promising area, with cumulative stablecoin settlement volume surpassing $200 million [6] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending growth varies among different spend bands, with the most affluent growing the fastest, but all bands remain resilient [8] - eCommerce spending in the U.S. grew faster than face-to-face spending, with travel spending increasing by 12% and eCommerce spending up 14% in cross-border volumes [9][10] Future Outlook - Despite potential impacts from tariffs leading to economic uncertainty, consumer spending has shown relative resilience [10] - Overall net revenues are projected to be in the low double digits, consistent with fiscal second quarter results [10]

Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results April 29, 2025 ©2025 Visa. All rights reserved. Fiscal Second Quarter 2025 Results | YoY increase / (decrease) except for Effective Income Tax Rate | Net Revenue | Operating Expenses | Effective Income Tax Rate | Diluted Class A Common Stock Earnings Per Share | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GAAP Nominal-Dollar Basis | 9% | 22% | 15.8% | 1% | | Non-GAAP Nominal-Dollar Basis(1) | 9% | 7% | 16.9% | 10% | | Foreign Currency Impact(2) | ~2.0% | ~3.0% | N/A | ~1.5 ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 experienced its sixth consecutive day of gains, with no negative impact from economic data or earnings reports [1] - The Dow increased by 300 points (+0.75%), the S&P 500 rose by 32 points (+0.58%), and the Nasdaq grew by 95 points (+0.55%) [2] - Bond yields decreased, with the 10-year yield at 4.17% and the 2-year yield at 3.65% [2] Housing Market - The Case Shiller Home Price Index for February showed a headline increase of +3.9%, which is 20 basis points lower than the previous month [3] - The 10-City survey reported a +5.2% increase, down from +5.7%, while the 20-City index showed a +4.5% increase, down from +4.7% [3] - Notable cities for rising home prices included New York City (+7.7%), Chicago (+7.0%), and Cleveland (+6.6%) [3] Labor Market - The JOLTS report for March indicated job openings at 7.19 million, below the expected 7.5 million, with the previous month revised down to 7.5 million [5] - Job quits remained stable at 3.3 million, with a quits rate of +2.1% [6] - Layoffs in the retail sector decreased by 66,000, and federal government layoffs fell by 11,000 [6] Consumer Confidence - The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April dropped to 86.0, below the expected 87.3 and down 7.9 points from the previous month [7] - The Expectations Index fell to 54.4, a decrease of -12.5 month over month, marking the lowest level since October 2011 [8] - 32.1% of consumers expect fewer jobs in the next six months, the highest rate since April 2009 [8] Company Earnings - Visa reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.76 per share, exceeding expectations of $2.68 and the previous year's $2.51, with revenues of $9.59 billion slightly above the anticipated $9.56 billion [10] - Starbucks missed both earnings and revenue expectations for fiscal Q2, reporting earnings of 41 cents per share and revenues of $8.76 billion, below the expected $8.79 billion [12] - Booking Holdings posted strong Q1 results with earnings of $24.81 per share and revenues of $4.76 billion, surpassing expectations [13] - Seagate Technologies exceeded estimates with fiscal Q3 earnings of $1.90 per share and revenues of $2.16 billion, raising guidance for the next quarter to $2.40 per share [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Visa reported net revenue of $9.6 billion, an increase of 9% year over year, with EPS up 10% [5][30] - Overall payments volume grew by 8% year over year in constant dollars, with U.S. payments volume increasing by 6% and international payments volume by 9% [5][30] - Cross-border volume, excluding intra-Europe, rose by 13% in constant dollars, while processed transactions grew by 9% year over year [5][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Consumer Payments, total credentials grew by 7%, with nearly 50% of e-commerce transactions globally being tokenized [7][8] - Commercial volume increased by 6% in constant dollars, and Visa Direct transactions surged by 28% year over year [15][30] - Value-added services revenue grew by 22% in constant dollars, driven by strong performance across all portfolios [18][30] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - U.S. e-commerce growth outpaced face-to-face spending, with credit up 5% and debit up 7% [31] - Cross-border e-commerce volume increased by 14%, while travel volume rose by 12% [34][30] - The overall growth in cross-border volume was in line with Q4 2024 levels and above pre-COVID trends [27][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Visa's strategy focuses on enhancing consumer payments, commercial solutions, and value-added services, with a strong emphasis on innovation and product development [6][15] - The company is expanding its presence in key markets, such as India, Mexico, and Brazil, to drive greater acceptance of digital payments [8][9] - Visa is also investing in interoperability and programmability in its stablecoin offerings, aiming to attract affluent and cross-border travelers [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumer spending remains resilient despite economic uncertainties, with no signs of overall spending weakening in the U.S. [26][28] - The company anticipates continued strong performance in the second half of the fiscal year, with adjusted net revenue growth expected in the low double digits [44][46] - Visa's diverse business model has proven resilient in various economic environments, positioning the company for future growth [28][46] Other Important Information - Visa repurchased approximately $4.5 billion in stock and distributed $1.2 billion in dividends during the quarter [40] - The Board of Directors authorized a new $30 billion multi-year share repurchase program [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Changes in client decision-making and pipelines - Management emphasized that they have been focusing on sharing data and solutions with clients to help them navigate the current environment [49][51] Question: Outlook on international travel and bookings - Management acknowledged the fluid situation in travel and cross-border business, highlighting the importance of diversification in their operations [53][56] Question: Incentives outlook and growth rates - Management indicated that incentives grew 15% in Q2, lower than expected, but they anticipate higher growth in the second half of the year due to client performance adjustments and deal timing [80][82] Question: Delta between nominal cross-border volumes and international revenue - Management explained that FX volatility, client mix, and pricing dynamics contributed to the differences between volume growth and revenue growth [87][90] Question: Entertainment weakness and future expectations - Management noted that while there were some weaknesses in travel and entertainment, overall discretionary and non-discretionary spending remained strong [108][110] Question: Geopolitical impacts on investment strategies - Management stated that geopolitical factors are being monitored, but they remain focused on long-term strategies and opportunities [112]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 35% year-over-year increase in volumes to $45 billion, with gross revenue less network fees rising 40% to $369 million [6][24] - Adjusted EBITDA increased 38% to $169 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins at 46%, slightly above the guidance of 45% [7][24] - Adjusted EPS for the quarter was $1.07 per share, reflecting strong performance [8][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Subscription and other revenue grew 77% year-over-year to $93 million, driven by success in SMB, SkyTab, and further penetration in the sports and entertainment vertical [24] - The company is focused on adding new merchants and expanding share of wallet, particularly in the restaurant sector with the introduction of SkyTab Air [9][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing stable volume trends across all end markets, with a slight deceleration attributed to seasonal factors [6][30] - International expansion is underway, with significant growth in markets like the UK, Ireland, and Germany, signing over 1,000 restaurants monthly [19][75] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is raising its full-year 2025 guidance, reflecting confidence in execution and growth drivers [6][29] - The acquisition of Global Blue is expected to unlock $80 million in revenue synergies by 2027, primarily through bundling payment solutions [21][90] - The company aims to replicate its successful U.S. model internationally, focusing on software and payment convergence [18][75] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer spending trends, noting stability despite macroeconomic uncertainties [30][100] - The company has a proven track record of growing payment volumes during economic downturns, indicating resilience [22][30] Other Important Information - The company repurchased approximately 686,000 shares for $63 million in Q1 and continued repurchases in April [27] - Total indebtedness has a weighted average cost of 3.4%, with net leverage at approximately 2.4 times [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: How would you describe the competitive environment in international markets? - Management noted that the international opportunity mirrors the U.S. market evolution, with a lack of convergence among software, hardware, and payment solutions [36][39] Question: Can you touch on what you're seeing in the market more broadly into April? - Management indicated stable trends in same-store sales across various segments, with modest compression in restaurants and hotels [42][46] Question: Where are you on the synergy update from recent acquisitions? - Management highlighted successful cross-sell opportunities from acquisitions like Revel, contributing significantly to the SkyTab development pipeline [50][51] Question: What was organic and inorganic growth in the 40% GR LNF growth in the quarter? - Management stated that organic revenue growth is expected to be north of 20% for the year, with acquisitions providing noise in quarter-to-quarter comparisons [56][57] Question: Can you provide any color on the current revenue split between U.S. and international? - Management indicated that international revenue is still developing, with significant contributions expected from enterprise customers and SMB products [72][73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - PayPal delivered a strong first quarter with non-GAAP earnings per share increasing by 23% year over year to $1.33 [6][32] - Transaction margin dollars grew by 7% or 8% excluding last year's Leap Day, outperforming previous guidance [31][32] - Free cash flow reached $1 billion in Q1, bringing trailing twelve-month free cash flow to $6 billion [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total active accounts increased by approximately 1.5 million from the previous quarter, totaling 436 million, with monthly active accounts up 2% year over year to 224 million [32] - Online branded checkout TPV grew nearly 6% this quarter, while branded experiences TPV grew 8% excluding last year's Leap Day [12][34] - Venmo experienced a significant revenue growth of 20%, with TPV increasing over 50% and monthly active accounts growing by 30% [10][29] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Branded experiences TPV growth of 8% indicates strong traction in omnichannel initiatives, outperforming the full year growth of 2024 [8][34] - Debit card TPV grew approximately 64% in Q1, with Venmo debit card monthly active accounts increasing nearly 40% [17][29] - The company is on track to launch NFC capabilities in Germany and expand its omnichannel strategy in the UK [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - PayPal is transforming from a payments company to a comprehensive commerce platform, focusing on personalized experiences and a dynamic smart wallet [4][5] - The strategy includes enhancing omnichannel commerce, expanding branded checkout, and leveraging AI and crypto for future growth [23][24][27] - The company aims to deepen relationships with merchants through value-added services and improve profitability over time [19][39] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautious about macroeconomic uncertainties but is confident in the company's ability to navigate challenges and invest in long-term growth [41][42] - Consumer spending and the labor market have shown resilience, but potential impacts from tariffs and trading frictions are being monitored closely [41][42] - The company expects low to mid-single-digit revenue growth for Q2, maintaining full-year guidance despite a strong start to the year [42][44] Other Important Information - PayPal completed $1.5 billion in share repurchases in the quarter, totaling $6 billion over the past four quarters [40] - The company ended the quarter with $15.8 billion in cash and cash equivalents, and $12.6 billion in debt [40] Q&A Session Summary Question: How do you characterize consumer and SMB health overall? - Management noted that consumer health appears stable, with no significant impacts observed yet from macroeconomic or geopolitical issues, and they are confident in their position to support small businesses if needed [50][53][54] Question: Can you provide insights on the traction of the branded experience TPV strategy? - Management confirmed that the branded checkout strategy is driving habituation, with TPV growth over 8% and significant increases in PayPal and Venmo debit card usage [58][60][61] Question: What impact do you expect from the elimination of the de minimis tariff exemption for China? - Management indicated that Chinese merchants selling into the U.S. represent less than 2% of branded checkout TPV, suggesting minimal impact [63][65] Question: Can you elaborate on your outlook around KPIs and modeling assumptions? - Management maintained full-year guidance due to macro uncertainty, embedding potential deceleration in e-commerce trends in the second half of the year [68][71] Question: What are the growth expectations for branded versus unbranded transactions? - Management expects consistent growth in branded transactions, with a mid-single-digit TPV guide for branded checkout, while unbranded growth has been a strong contributor to transaction margin dollars [72][75] Question: Can you discuss the competitive landscape in Germany and the UK? - In Germany, PayPal is the market leader with strong consumer and merchant presence, while in the UK, the company is rolling out a new app experience and biometrics to enhance user experience and compete effectively [109][112][114]

Core Viewpoint - Mastercard is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 1, 2025, with earnings estimated at $7.57 per share and revenues of $7.13 billion, reflecting a year-over-year earnings increase of 7.9% and revenue growth of 12.3% [1][2] Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Mastercard's total revenues in 2025 is $31.59 billion, indicating a year-over-year rise of 12.2% [2] - The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings per share is $15.89, suggesting an increase of approximately 8.8% year-over-year [2] Earnings Performance History - Mastercard has a strong track record of exceeding earnings estimates, having beaten the consensus in each of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 3.3% [3] Earnings Prediction Model - Current indicators do not strongly predict an earnings beat for the upcoming quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -0.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [4] Key Growth Drivers - The Gross Dollar Volume (GDV) for Mastercard is projected to rise by 8.1% year-over-year, with domestic operations expected to grow by nearly 7% and international operations by 8% [6] - Switched transactions are anticipated to increase by 9.9% year-over-year, driven by resilient consumer spending and enhanced contactless payment initiatives [7] - Cross-border volumes are expected to grow by 14%, with domestic assessments and transaction processing assessments projected to rise by 8.4% and 8.9%, respectively [8] Value-added Services - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net revenues from Value-added Services and Solutions indicates a 17% year-over-year growth, supported by demand for consulting, marketing services, and loyalty solutions [9] Expense Considerations - Rising expenses, including a projected 13.7% increase in adjusted operating costs and a 10.6% rise in payments network rebates and incentives, may offset growth potential [11] Stock Performance - Mastercard's stock has gained 1.5% year-to-date, outperforming the industry decline of 0.9%, while Visa has increased by 6.8% and American Express has decreased by 10.7% [12] Valuation Metrics - Mastercard is currently trading at a forward P/E of 31.85X, above its five-year median of 31.82X and the industry average of 22.31X, indicating a stretched valuation [16] - In comparison, Visa and American Express are trading at forward P/Es of 27.84X and 16.63X, respectively [17] Strategic Outlook - Despite strong fundamentals and growth potential, the high valuation relative to industry averages raises concerns, particularly in light of rising macroeconomic risks and competitive pressures in the digital payments landscape [18][19]

April 29, 2025 Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation contains non-GAAP measures relating to our performance. These measures may exclude certain expenses, gains and losses that may not be indicative of our core operating results and business outlook, and, in each case, may be different from the non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies. The presentation of this financial information, which is not prepared under any comprehensive set of accounting rules or principles, is not intended to be c ...

Core Insights - Shift4 Payments reported a revenue of $368.5 million for the quarter ended March 2025, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 39.7% and surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.90% [1] - The company's EPS for the quarter was $1.07, significantly higher than the $0.54 reported in the same quarter last year, resulting in an EPS surprise of 50.70% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.71 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - End-to-End Payment Volume reached $45 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $44.53 billion from five analysts [4] - Gross Revenue from Subscription and other revenues was reported at $92.60 million, slightly above the average estimate of $92.56 million, marking a year-over-year increase of 77.1% [4] - Gross Revenue from Payments-based revenue was $755.70 million, below the average estimate of $797.60 million, but still showing a year-over-year growth of 15.4% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, shares of Shift4 Payments have returned -2.5%, compared to a -0.8% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]