Hello everyone. Today we are going to talk about what I think the government should be doing to get prices down and make life more affordable for everyday Americans. We're live today from the desk of Anthony Pompiano.Before we get into today's episode, I need your help. We've got over 42,000 subscribers, but you watching right now, you ain't hit the button yet. Hit the subscribe button and let's get into today's show.All right. I don't think it's a secret to anybody that affordability is the single biggest ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Economic Outlook - **Context**: The call discusses the economic sentiment in China, focusing on provincial growth targets and housing market adjustments. Core Insights 1. **Provincial Growth Targets**: Provinces are adjusting their growth targets down to approximately 5% on average, a decrease from around 5.4% in the previous year, indicating a pragmatic approach to economic growth [1][2][4] 2. **National Target Implications**: A potential national target of 4.5-5% could facilitate economic rebalancing, allowing for a focus on quality over quantity in growth [1][4] 3. **Housing Market Adjustments**: The easing of the "three red lines" policy for developers suggests a shift in regulatory constraints, with cash inflow issues becoming a more pressing concern than previous debt ratios [2][4] 4. **Pragmatic Mindset**: The reduction in growth targets reflects a more practical mindset among provincial leaders, prioritizing sustainable growth over aggressive targets [4] 5. **Infrastructure and Consumption**: - Infrastructure spending is robust, with net government bond issuance reaching Rmb1.2 trillion, the highest for January on record [6] - However, consumer spending remains weak, particularly in passenger car sales, which have seen a significant decline [6][20] Additional Important Points 1. **Policy Direction**: Future policies are expected to focus on targeted demand-side measures in the housing market, including mortgage subsidies and easing purchase restrictions [5] 2. **Economic Fundamentals**: - Infrastructure activity is strong, with rebar shipments and cement demand showing positive trends [6] - Exports are stable, with container throughput indicating continued growth [6] 3. **Consumer Trends**: The decline in passenger car sales and home appliance sales suggests ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and spending [6][20] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current economic sentiment in China and the implications for various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the global housing market, with an average annual nominal growth of 2.4% across 55 markets in Q3 2025, signaling a modest improvement in pricing conditions [2][6]. Core Insights - Global house price growth strengthened in Q3 2025, with a rise to 2.4% from 2.2% in Q2, marking the highest growth since Q1 2024. This growth is supported by a shift in monetary policy, with central banks implementing 27 net rate cuts and no hikes during the quarter [2][3][6]. - Turkey leads the index with a nominal annual growth of 32.2%, although real growth is negative at -0.8%. Other notable markets include North Macedonia (25.1%) and Portugal (17.7%), with a significant presence of European markets in the top rankings [3][4]. - Despite nominal growth, global real house price growth remains slightly negative at -0.1% year-on-year, indicating that inflation continues to impact purchasing power and affordability [5][6]. Market Analysis - In Q3 2025, 86.3% of tracked markets experienced positive annual growth, reflecting a gradual improvement in market momentum [4][6]. - The report highlights that a sustained improvement in real growth will require further policy support and a clearer reduction in price pressures, as current nominal gains are not translating into real benefits for consumers [5][6].

Core Insights - A growing percentage of homeowners in the U.S. now own their homes outright, with 40.3% of owner-occupied homes being mortgage-free in 2024, up from 34.4% a decade ago [1][2] Group 1: Homeownership Trends - Over half of homeowners are above the retirement age of 65, indicating a demographic shift in homeownership [2] - The average age of homebuyers has increased from 39 to 59 over the last 15 years, reflecting changing financial dynamics [2] Group 2: Financial Implications of Homeownership - Fully-owned homes represent 100% equity, providing significant financial security and potential wealth accumulation [3] - The median sales price of American homes increased by 30% from Q2 2020 to Q2 2025, suggesting substantial appreciation in property values [5] - Homeowners do not need to pay a mortgage to benefit from rising housing market values, with new investment platforms facilitating access to real estate investments [5][6]

Core Insights - Zillow's 2026 outlook indicates a healthier housing market with increased inventory and more favorable conditions for buyers [2][5] Group 1: Buyer-Friendly Markets - Indianapolis ranks as the most buyer-friendly housing market in 2026, followed by Atlanta, Charlotte, Jacksonville, and Oklahoma City [11][12] - The Midwest and Sun Belt regions are highlighted for having more available inventory due to new construction, enhancing buyer choices and negotiating power [1][6] Group 2: Market Conditions - In half of the analyzed markets, typical households can afford average homes without financial strain, with mortgage payments under 30% of income assuming a 20% down payment [8] - Buyers in these favorable markets can expect more homes within budget and a lower risk of competitive bidding wars, allowing for more time to make decisions [5][10]

Core Insights - The American housing market in the early 2020s is characterized by high prices and limited supply, with a new development in 2026 where mortgage rates are decreasing while home prices remain high, leading to increased competition [1] - President Trump's housing agenda may exacerbate the situation by increasing demand without addressing supply constraints, potentially driving home prices higher [2] Mortgage Rates and Home Prices - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is currently around 6%, the lowest in several years, partly due to Trump's push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase up to $200 billion in mortgage bonds to keep borrowing costs low [3] - Lower mortgage rates can enhance a buyer's purchasing power by reducing monthly payments, which may lead to increased demand in a constrained supply market [3] Risks of Trump's Housing Plan - The potential risk of Trump's plan is that increased buying power could exert upward pressure on home prices in a low inventory market, with experts warning that even slight decreases in borrowing costs can lead to price increases under these conditions [4] - Trump's housing plan also includes executive actions to limit large investors' ability to purchase single-family homes, aiming to make homes more affordable for families rather than businesses [5] Expert Opinions on Supply and Demand - Real estate experts express skepticism about the effectiveness of Trump's demand-side strategies, arguing that without significant increases in housing supply, these measures are unlikely to lower prices and may instead heighten competition for limited starter homes [6] Affordability Challenges - For first-time buyers, the interplay of lower mortgage rates and higher home prices complicates affordability, indicating that financing costs are not the sole factor, but rather a mix of market dynamics influenced by politics, policy, supply limitations, and competition [7]

US President Donald Trump has made housing affordability a centrepiece of his economic agenda, recently announcing policies designed to increase homeownership. From restricting institutional investors from buying residential properties to urging "Fannie Mae†and "Freddie Mac†to buy billions in mortgage- backed securities, the administration has leaned on aggressive measures to ease costs. ...

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Housing Market Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese housing market** and its ongoing adjustments, highlighting the expected trends and macroeconomic implications over the next few years. Key Points and Arguments Housing Market Downcycle - The managed housing downcycle is projected to last another **two years**, with prices expected to decline by **8% in 2026** and **6% in 2027**, following a **12% decline in 2025**. Stabilization is anticipated in the **second half of 2027** [1][3][11]. Policy Guidance - Policymakers are likely to guide continued housing adjustments while implementing guardrails to prevent uncontrolled price declines. This includes selective mortgage subsidies in cities with stronger fundamentals to support sentiment without reversing the broader correction [2][11][12]. Economic Impact - The housing market is expected to remain a significant drag on nominal GDP growth, contributing **-2.3 percentage points in 2025**, narrowing to **-1.7 percentage points in 2026** and **-1.3 percentage points in 2027**. The drag is attributed to necessary price adjustments and weaker new housing starts [3][26]. Long-term Housing Demand - Long-term housing demand is projected to moderate to approximately **14 million units by 2040**, down from **15-17 million units** during 2021-2025. This is supported by slower urbanization and ongoing redevelopment needs [4][39][41]. Structural Changes - The market is shifting towards a **secondary-dominant structure**, with secondary homes expected to account for **55-60% of sales by 2030** and **70% by 2040**. This reflects a broader trend of declining primary housing demand due to demographic changes [39][46]. Inflation and Savings Trends - Core inflation is expected to moderate slightly in 2026, with a mild reflation anticipated after 2027. High household savings are shifting towards riskier financial assets, indicating a potential reallocation of investment strategies [10][30]. Trade Surplus and Currency Outlook - China's trade surplus is expected to remain elevated at around **3.5% of GDP** from 2025 to 2027, reflecting weak domestic demand. This environment may lead to a modest appreciation of the RMB [31]. Risks and Challenges - The housing market faces several risks, including high inventory levels, adverse demographics, and a weak job market. These factors contribute to a cautious outlook for housing prices and overall economic recovery [64][72]. Conclusion - The conference call emphasizes the complexity of the housing market adjustment in China, highlighting the need for careful policy management to navigate the ongoing challenges while aiming for stabilization and long-term growth in the sector [11][17][21].

January 23, 2026 09:03 AM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation What's Next After the New Year Rally? Morgan Stanley Asia Limited M Deposit Migration Underway Onshore equity mutual funds AUM rose notably in December ~ Rmb30trn term deposits will approach maturity in 1Q26 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Onshore Mutu ...

Core Insights - The combination of high home prices and elevated mortgage rates has significantly hindered homebuying for many Americans, with 66% of Gen Z and 59% of Millennials expressing concerns about future home affordability [2] Affordability Strategies - A popular strategy to improve affordability involves making a down payment of less than 20% to avoid private mortgage insurance (PMI), followed by renovations aimed at increasing home value to qualify for PMI removal [3][9] - However, renovations do not guarantee an increase in home value, and if appraisals do not align with the expected improvements, homeowners may incur renovation costs while still paying PMI [3][10] Financial Implications of PMI - PMI typically adds $30-$70 per month for every $100,000 borrowed, which can significantly increase monthly housing costs, especially for homes with a mortgage balance of around $344,660 after a 5% down payment [6] - The additional cost of PMI can detract from monthly budgets, limiting savings potential, which could otherwise accumulate to over $1,200 annually [7][8] Homeowner Sentiment - Homeowners are increasingly motivated to find strategies to eliminate PMI more quickly than waiting for their loan balance to decrease, as PMI is perceived as money spent without tangible benefits [8]