Core Insights - LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton reported a revenue of €39.8 billion for the first half of 2025, reflecting a 4% decrease compared to the same period in 2024 [5][6] - Profit from recurring operations was €9 billion, resulting in an operating margin of 22.6% [3][5] - The Group's net profit amounted to €5.7 billion, down 22% year-over-year [5][6] Financial Highlights - Revenue for the first half of 2024 was €41.7 billion, while it decreased to €39.8 billion in 2025, marking a 4% decline [5] - Profit from recurring operations fell from €10.7 billion in 2024 to €9 billion in 2025, a decrease of 15% [5][8] - Net profit attributable to the Group decreased from €7.3 billion in 2024 to €5.7 billion in 2025, a decline of 22% [5][8] - Operating free cash flow increased by 29% to €4 billion [5][6] - Net financial debt decreased by 16% from €12.2 billion in 2024 to €10.2 billion in 2025 [5] Revenue by Business Group - Wines & Spirits revenue decreased from €2.8 billion in 2024 to €2.6 billion in 2025, an 8% decline [5][9] - Fashion & Leather Goods revenue fell from €20.8 billion in 2024 to €19.1 billion in 2025, also an 8% decline [5][10] - Perfumes & Cosmetics revenue slightly decreased from €4.1 billion in 2024 to €4.1 billion in 2025, a 1% decline [5][11] - Watches & Jewelry revenue remained stable at €5.1 billion in both years [5][13] - Selective Retailing revenue was flat at €8.6 billion in 2025 compared to €8.6 billion in 2024 [5][14] Business Group Performance - The Wines & Spirits segment experienced a decline in revenue and profit, with a notable drop in cognac demand, although champagne showed improvement [9] - The Fashion & Leather Goods segment demonstrated resilience with local customers, maintaining a high operating margin despite a decline in revenue [10] - The Perfumes & Cosmetics segment remained stable, driven by strong innovation and selective retailing strategies [11][12] - The Watches & Jewelry segment saw stable performance, with ongoing investments in store renovations and successful product launches [13] - The Selective Retailing segment achieved growth in revenue and profit, particularly through Sephora's strong performance [14] Outlook - LVMH remains confident in its long-term potential and will continue to focus on enhancing brand desirability and product quality amid geopolitical and economic uncertainties [15][16]

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Data Breach Incidents - Louis Vuitton (LVHK) experienced a data breach affecting approximately 420 thousand Hong Kong customers [1] - The leaked data includes customer names, passport numbers, dates of birth, addresses, email addresses, phone numbers, shopping records, and product preferences [1] - Cartier also experienced a data breach affecting a portion of its global customer base [1] Regulatory Scrutiny - Hong Kong's Privacy Commissioner for Personal Data has initiated an investigation into LVHK regarding the data breach, including potential delays in reporting [1] Data Leaked Details - Cartier data breach included customer names and dates of birth, but reportedly did not involve passwords, credit card, or banking information [1]

Data Breach Incident - Louis Vuitton suffered a data leak affecting approximately 419,000 customers [1] - Hong Kong's privacy watchdog is investigating the data leak [1] Cybersecurity Concerns - Louis Vuitton is experiencing a series of cyber attacks across its key markets in recent months [1]

Business Strategy - De Beers's CEO aims to protect a generation from a "huge con" in diamond buying [1] - The company seeks to rescue its brand from a concerning decline [1]

Business Strategy - De Beers's CEO aims to protect a generation from a "huge con" in diamond buying [1] - The company seeks to rescue its brand from a concerning decline [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Chemicals and Industrials**: The chemicals sector experienced five profit warnings for FY25 from companies including BASF, Brenntag, Covestro, Solvay, and Fuchs SE, primarily due to weaker pricing and margins driven by oversupply in China and softer oil prices. The industrials sector showed mixed results, with some companies beating expectations while others missed, particularly in the electrical and construction segments [7][30]. Core Insights - **Market Sentiment**: Goldman Sachs' Risk Appetite Indicator has returned to more bullish levels, indicating a tactical neutral stance in asset allocation over the next three months, while maintaining a modestly pro-risk outlook for the next twelve months, particularly favoring equities [1]. - **Equity Strategy**: There is a preference for diversification across assets and regions, with a specific emphasis on European equities as the PEG ratio compared to the US has widened [1][7]. - **Profit Warnings**: The chemicals sector's profit warnings reflect broader market challenges, with BASF's muted share price reaction suggesting market anticipation of cuts. Conversely, Umicore's positive trading update stands out amid the negative sentiment in the sector [7][11][29]. Notable Company Performances - **Publicis**: Reported a significant 200 basis point beat on organic growth, attributed to market share gains, although shares fluctuated due to concerns over AI impacts [10]. - **Novartis**: Delivered strong results but saw a share price decline due to high expectations and pressures from generics and tariffs [10][33]. - **Luxury Sector**: Richemont reported strong results, particularly in the US and Middle East, indicating robust high-end demand, which supports a positive outlook for LVMH [11][31]. Investment Opportunities - **Nebius Group**: Initiated coverage with a Buy rating, highlighting a 25%+ price target upside due to its position in the AI Neocloud market [13][14]. - **UCB**: Initiated with a Buy rating, forecasting significant sales growth from its blockbuster drug Bimzelx, with peak sales expected to reach €7 billion by 2033 [16]. - **German Telcos**: Potential for increased mobile consolidation could lead to significant upside for companies like UTDI and 1&1 [23]. Risks and Considerations - **Dollar Depreciation**: The outlook for USD depreciation is expected to slow unless new catalysts emerge, such as deeper Fed cuts or movements in the Chinese Yuan [3][4]. - **Profit Expectations**: High expectations in sectors like pharmaceuticals may lead to muted market reactions despite strong earnings, as seen with Novartis [10][33]. Additional Insights - **Sector Trends**: The industrials sector showed a mix of strong and weak performances, with electrical names generally performing well while construction and mining sectors faced challenges [11][30]. - **Market Dynamics**: The luxury goods market is showing resilience, particularly in the US, while European markets face downside risks due to structural issues [36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting industry trends, company performances, investment opportunities, and associated risks.

Industry Trend - De Beers's CEO aims to protect a generation from a "huge con" in diamond buying [1] - The goal is to rescue the iconic De Beers brand from a concerning decline [1]

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