Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global RevPAR grew by 0.1% in Q3 2025, consistent with Q2 performance, driven by strong trading in EMEA-A and improvement in Greater China [5][6] - Year-to-date global RevPAR increased by 1.4% [22] - In the Americas, RevPAR decreased by 0.9% in Q3, with the U.S. down 1.6% due to slower trading conditions [5][6] - EMEA-A RevPAR increased by 2.8% in Q3, with year-to-date growth at 3.8% [6][7] - Greater China saw a 1.8% decline in RevPAR in Q3, an improvement from previous quarters [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Rooms revenue for business days increased by 4% globally, while leisure and groups decreased by 2% and 4% respectively [8] - System growth included the opening of 14,500 rooms across 99 hotels globally, marking a 17% year-on-year increase [9] - The Americas saw a gross system growth of 3.6% year-on-year, with 2,700 rooms opened in Q3 [10] - EMEA-A region experienced a gross system growth of 10.4% year-on-year, with 4,200 rooms opened [11] - Greater China achieved a gross system growth of 12.8% year-on-year, with 7,600 rooms opened [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In EMEA-A, RevPAR growth varied by market, with the UK up 2.8% and the Middle East up 9.5% [7] - Greater China showed strong growth in Tier 1 cities, while Tiers 2 to 4 faced declines [8] - U.S. government travel remained about 20% lower than the previous year, impacting overall demand [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to launch a new collection brand targeting the upscale to upper upscale segment, initially focusing on the EMEA-A region [19][20] - The new brand aims to complement existing brands like Voco and Vignette Collection, which have seen success in the market [19][20] - The company is optimistic about long-term demand drivers, despite short-term challenges in the U.S. market [18][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in returning to growth in the U.S. as economic uncertainty subsides [6][18] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for 12% EBIT growth and 15% EPS growth [22] - Management highlighted strong fundamentals in the U.S. economy, including employment and consumer spending, as positive indicators for future performance [32][34] Other Important Information - The company is 78% through its $900 million share buyback program, reducing share count by 3.9% [14] - IHG plans to change the currency of its ordinary shares traded on the London Stock Exchange from British pounds to U.S. dollars starting January 2026 [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Net system growth for 2026 and RevPAR outlook - Management is comfortable with a consensus of around 4.5% net system growth for 2025, with strong signings and conversions expected to continue [25][27] - RevPAR for the fourth quarter is expected to be similar to Q3, with short booking windows impacting performance [30][31] Question: New brand launch and U.S. demand weakness - The new brand launch is focused on the EMEA region due to a higher proportion of independent hotels available for conversion [42][43] - Weakness in U.S. leisure demand is attributed to several factors, including lower international inbound travel and economic uncertainties [47][48] Question: Timing of new brand launch and performance in China - Details on the new brand launch will be provided in the coming months, with expectations for continued improvement in China [55][56] Question: Ruby brand performance and churn rates - The Ruby brand is performing well with multiple signings and openings planned [62] - Management aims to reduce churn rates to 1.5% over the long term, with no immediate need for brand refreshes [66][67] Question: Buyback completion - Management is confident in completing the buyback program by the end of the year [67]

Core Insights - Hilton reported an increase in profit and revenue for Q3 2025, with net income of $420 million and diluted EPS of $1.78, compared to $344 million and $1.38 per share in Q3 2024 [1][2] - Revenue for the quarter rose by 8.8% to $3.12 billion, while adjusted EBITDA was $976 million [2] - System-wide comparable RevPAR decreased by 1.1% on a currency neutral basis compared to Q3 2024, attributed to modest occupancy and average daily rate declines [2][4] Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, system-wide comparable RevPAR increased by 0.3%, with net income at $1.16 billion and adjusted EBITDA at $2.78 billion, resulting in diluted EPS of $4.84 [3] - Hilton forecasts full year 2025 net income between $1.604 billion and $1.625 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be in the range of $3.685 billion to $3.715 billion [4] Development and Growth - Hilton approved 33,000 rooms for development in Q3 2025, increasing its global pipeline to 515,400 rooms, a 5% increase from the previous year [3] - The company added 24,800 rooms to its system, resulting in a net addition of 23,200 rooms and a 6.5% rise in net unit growth from the same point last year [4] - Hilton projects net unit growth between 6.5% and 7.0% in 2025, supported by a strong development pipeline and new brand introductions [6][7] Strategic Initiatives - Hilton opened its 9,000th property with the launch of Signia by Hilton La Cantera Resort and Spa, marking nearly three hotel openings per day since August 2024 [6][7] - The introduction of a new lifestyle brand, Outset Collection by Hilton, is part of the strategy to grow its portfolio and increase market share in hotel conversions in the US [7]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the hotel industry in the Asia Pacific region, specifically Chinese hotel stocks, H World Group Ltd (HTHT) and Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT) [1][2][3] Key Points and Arguments H World Group Ltd (HTHT) - **Inaugural Capital Markets Day**: Scheduled for October 30, 2025, expected to provide a detailed growth roadmap aiming to operate 20,000 hotels domestically over the next five years [6] - **Brand Positioning**: The company plans to discuss existing and new initiatives to capture more market share domestically [6] - **International Developments**: Recent overseas developments, particularly in Southeast Asia, are anticipated to be highlighted [6] - **Financial Projections**: Expectations for asset-light business revenue and operating profit projections to be shared [6] - **RevPAR Trends**: Positive signs of business demand recovery, with expectations for RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) to turn positive year-over-year in 4Q25, aided by an easy comparison base from November 2024 [6] - **3Q25 Results**: Anticipated to show a narrower RevPAR decline of -1% compared to -4% in 1H25, with positive guidance for 4Q25 expected [6] Atour Lifestyle Holdings Ltd (ATAT) - **Retail Performance**: Reported a 74% year-over-year growth in retail revenue in 1H25, with an 86% increase during the "618" sales promotion [6] - **Market Expectations**: The market anticipates a 65-70% year-over-year growth in "Double 11" sales promotion; any deviation from this could act as a catalyst for stock movement [6] Valuation Methodology and Risks - **HTHT Valuation**: Based on discounted cash flow (DCF) with a WACC of 10.5%, medium-term growth of 8% (2028-35e), and a terminal growth rate of 2% [8] - **ATAT Valuation**: Also based on DCF, with a forecasted 17.5% EBITDA CAGR from 2025-29 and an 8% CAGR thereafter, implying a 17x EV/EBITDA for 2025 [7] Risks Identified - **HTHT Risks**: - Upside: More hotel openings than expected, lower reinvestment costs, higher industry RevPAR [10] - Downside: Significant slowdown in retail sales growth, industry RevPAR declines over 3% YoY in 2026 [10] - **ATAT Risks**: - Upside: Stronger-than-expected RevPAR growth, quicker mix upgrade leading to higher blended RevPAR growth [11] - Downside: Industry RevPAR declines deeper than -5% YoY for 2025, rising supply and competition in the low/mid-scale segment [11] Additional Insights - The hotel industry is currently in a low season, but business demand trends in late October and November will be critical for assessing the necessity of business travel [1] - The conference call emphasizes the importance of upcoming events and financial results as potential catalysts for stock performance in the hotel sector [2][5]

Core Insights - Wyndham Hotels reported a revenue of $382 million for the quarter ended September 2025, which is a decrease of 3.5% compared to the same period last year [1] - The company's EPS was $1.46, an increase from $1.39 in the year-ago quarter, resulting in an EPS surprise of +2.82% against a consensus estimate of $1.42 [1] - The reported revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $402.09 million, indicating a surprise of -5% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Total Rooms stood at 855,400, below the average estimate of 874,696 based on four analysts [4] - Total RevPAR was reported at $50.05, slightly lower than the average estimate of $50.57 from four analysts [4] - Fee-related and other revenues from royalties and franchise fees were $147 million, compared to the estimated $161.29 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -7.6% [4] - Marketing, reservation, and loyalty revenues were $149 million, below the average estimate of $159.31 million, marking a -7.5% change year-over-year [4] - Management and other fees generated $2 million, compared to the estimated $3 million, representing a significant year-over-year decline of -33.3% [4] - License and other fees reached $35 million, exceeding the estimated $33.83 million, with a year-over-year increase of +9.4% [4] - Other fee-related revenues amounted to $49 million, surpassing the average estimate of $42.13 million, showing a year-over-year growth of +25.6% [4] Stock Performance - Wyndham's shares have returned -1.8% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), suggesting potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - A panel of experts concluded that claims against LuxUrban Hotels Inc. regarding large-scale tax liabilities in New York are likely inaccurate and legally precluded under state and city law, as well as inconsistent with established OTA payment systems [1][2]. Findings and Legal Basis - Between 2020 and 2025, LuxUrban Hotels generated approximately $248 million in gross room revenue across 11 U.S. states and cities, with audited net room revenue totaling $149 million, of which only $56 million (22.6%) originated from New York operations [3]. - Under New York State Tax Law, entities defined as "room remarketers" or "resellers," including OTAs, are responsible for collecting customer payments and remitting occupancy and sales taxes [4]. - Legal precedents confirm that hotels do not remit occupancy taxes for prepaid OTA transactions; instead, OTAs handle these responsibilities [5]. Implications Beyond Taxation - The OTA payment and tax structure defines the merchant-customer relationship and tax responsibility, indicating that LuxUrban did not control or process customer payments for 92–97% of its bookings [6][7]. Potential Damages and Legal Exposure of False Claims - False claims alleging unpaid taxes may expose responsible parties to defamation and commercial disparagement under New York law, with potential recoverable damages for LuxUrban reaching into the tens of millions of dollars [8][9]. - The spokesperson emphasized that the issue is a matter of law and factual record, asserting that LuxUrban neither processed guest payments nor collected occupancy taxes for OTA-booked stays [10].

Core Insights - The hospitality company has revised its full-year outlook downward due to lower-than-expected revenue reported in the third quarter [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in revenue during the third quarter, prompting the adjustment in its financial forecast [1]

Core Thesis - H World Group Limited (HTHT) is positioned as a strong investment opportunity due to its robust operational model, technology integration, and growth potential in the Chinese hotel market [1][5]. Company Overview - H World Group is a leading Chinese hotel operator with a diverse portfolio that includes budget to upscale hotels and partnerships with global brands [2]. - The company leverages proprietary technology, a strong loyalty program, and a significant domestic presence to create a competitive moat [2][3]. Technology and Operations - The "Huazhu Cloud" system integrates various management functions, utilizing AI-driven revenue management systems to optimize room rates in real time, enhancing occupancy and profitability [2][3]. - The "H Rewards" program boasts 288 million members, generating 76% of bookings through direct channels, which reduces reliance on online travel agencies (OTAs) [3]. Growth Strategy - HTHT operates over 12,000 hotels in China, focusing 99% of its expansion plans domestically with an asset-light "manachised" model that combines franchising and direct management [3]. - The company aims to achieve a target of 20,000 hotels by 2030, supported by a strong development pipeline and historical growth trends [4]. Financial Performance - Recent Q2 2025 results indicate modest revenue growth and slight declines in Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR), attributed to accelerated hotel openings and renovations [4]. - Despite temporary challenges, management remains optimistic about future growth, projecting earnings and free cash flow growth of 10-15% annually through 2030 [5]. Investment Potential - The stock, currently trading around $35, offers potential annual returns of 15-20%, supported by resilient operations and a favorable growth trajectory [5]. - HTHT's competitive ecosystem and ongoing investments in brand quality create a sustainable advantage, making it a compelling investment opportunity [5].

Core Insights - Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. shares increased over 4% following the company's raised full-year earnings guidance and better-than-expected third-quarter results, reflecting optimism for a sustained rebound in U.S. travel demand [1] Financial Performance - The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA forecast to between $3.69 billion and $3.72 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $3.65 billion to $3.71 billion, surpassing analysts' expectations of $3.68 billion [2] - For the third quarter, Hilton reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.11, exceeding forecasts of $2.05, while revenue rose to $2.11 billion from $1.92 billion year-over-year, also above expectations [3] - Revenue per available room (RevPAR) decreased by 1.1% year-over-year to $119.33, slightly missing projections, but management noted strong pricing and occupancy trends heading into the fourth quarter [3] Industry Context - Industry sentiment has improved recently, supported by positive outlooks from airlines like United Airlines and Delta Air Lines, indicating steady travel activity following earlier slowdowns due to uncertainties from tariff policies [2]

Core Insights - Wyndham Hotels & Resorts reported a 4% year-over-year growth in global system size and development pipeline, achieving record levels in both metrics [1][3][9] - The company experienced a 5% decline in global RevPAR in constant currency, with a notable decrease in the U.S. and international markets [4][5][21] - Ancillary revenues increased by 18% year-over-year, contributing positively to the overall financial performance despite challenges in core revenue streams [9][21] System Size and Development - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of rooms globally reached 855,400, up from 823,200 a year earlier, marking a 4% increase [3] - The development pipeline included approximately 2,180 hotels and 257,000 rooms, also reflecting a 4% year-over-year increase [3][10] - The U.S. system size grew by 0.2% to 503,400 rooms, while international rooms increased by 9% to 352,000 [3] Revenue Performance - Total fee-related and other revenues for Q3 2025 were $382 million, down from $394 million in Q3 2024, primarily due to a 5% decline in RevPAR [21] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 increased by 2% to $213 million, while net income rose by 3% to $105 million [9][21] - The diluted earnings per share increased by 5% to $1.36, reflecting a lower share count due to share repurchase activities [21] Market Trends - The U.S. RevPAR decreased by 5% to $55.07, with occupancy down by 300 basis points and ADR down by 200 basis points [4][5] - Internationally, RevPAR declined by 2%, with significant drops in Asia Pacific and Latin America, while EMEA and Canada showed growth [5][33] - The company continues to focus on high-quality, FeePAR-accretive hotels, particularly in the midscale and above segments [1][10] Financial Outlook - The company updated its full-year 2025 outlook, maintaining a rooms growth forecast of 4.0% - 4.6% and adjusting global RevPAR growth expectations to a range of -3% to -2% [15] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $715 million and $725 million, down from previous estimates [15] - The company expects marketing fund expenses to exceed revenues by approximately $5 million for the full year 2025, indicating a strategic investment for future recovery [16] Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a cash balance of $70 million and total liquidity of approximately $540 million [12] - The net debt leverage ratio stood at 3.5 times, consistent with the company's target range [12][30] - In October 2025, the company refinanced its $750 million revolving credit facility, increasing capacity to $1 billion and extending maturity to October 2030 [13][30]

I have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I have been trading on the PH stock market. I focus on banking, telco, and retail sectors. A colleague encouraged me to engage in the stock market as part of my portfolio diversification instead of putting all my savings in banks and properties. ...