首旅酒店：公司重点发展标准管理酒店与中高端酒店。截至25年三季度末，公司中高端酒店房间量占比 已提升至42.5%。 国信证券指出，当前酒店板块处于历史周期底部，供给侧龙头从"OCC（入住率）优先"转向"最优 RevPAR（每间可售房收入）"策略，华住三季度ADR已率先转正，核心城市连锁化率与集中度提升强 化龙头定价权。在供给侧新阶段以及需求政策期权带动下，龙头有望展现业绩弹性，参考历史周期业绩 弹性释放高点估值有望实现双击。 公司方面，据研报及上市公司互动平台等表示， 锦江酒店：公司是中国第一大酒店连锁集团。 据新浪财经1月29日消息，飞猪数据显示，今年春节的节中出游趋势明显，节中入住的酒店预订量同比 去年增长71%。 摩根大通数据显示，春节假期酒店预售数据稳健，全部四大酒店集团春节预售的周度日均房价均环比/ 同比增长，亚朵及华住日均房价增长势头尤为强劲，周环比分别涨46%/32%。2026年1季度迄今华住/亚 朵酒店数量增长加快，为全年扩张目标奠定良好开端。 其表示，今年春节假期较长（9天，去年为8天），因此酒店需求可能会更大；且预计政府将出台更多针 对行业需求/情绪的支持措施。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how Huazhu has leveraged high commission rates to enhance its performance, positioning itself as a leading player in the hotel industry despite challenges faced by its franchisees [4][7][36]. Group 1: Commission Structure and Revenue - Huazhu's overall commission rate is estimated to reach 12%, significantly higher than Ctrip's hotel booking commission rate of approximately 8%-10% [4][26]. - In 2025, Huazhu's total revenue is projected to be 800 billion, with franchisees contributing 703 billion, and Huazhu earning 87 billion from franchisees, resulting in a commission rate of 12.38% [25][26]. - Huazhu has managed to collect service fees from Ctrip, amounting to 1.12 billion and 1.46 billion in 2023 and 2024, respectively, effectively recouping nearly half of its commission expenses [11][12]. Group 2: Franchisee Challenges - Many franchisees report difficulties due to a lack of distance protection, leading to multiple franchises opening within close proximity, which has resulted in declining single-store revenue [7][43]. - Franchisees are increasingly dissatisfied, with reports of high turnover among store managers and complaints about operational inefficiencies [41][46]. - The average occupancy rate and daily room price for Huazhu's franchisees have declined, with single-store revenue dropping from 637 million to 630 million [43][44]. Group 3: Membership and User Base - Huazhu has built a robust membership system, with over 300 million members as of Q3 2025, contributing significantly to its order volume [15][16]. - The central reservation system accounted for 65.1% of Huazhu's room nights, indicating a lower reliance on OTA platforms compared to competitors [16][17]. Group 4: Expansion and Market Strategy - Huazhu has aggressively expanded its franchise model, increasing the number of franchise hotels from 5,746 to 10,380 between 2020 and 2024 [30][31]. - The company has focused on upgrading older hotels, with the proportion of outdated stores dropping from 29% to 4%, while newer versions have increased from 34% to 71% [32][35]. - Despite the rapid expansion, the competitive landscape has intensified, leading to franchisee concerns about profitability and market saturation [38][46].

We hosted H World and Atour management at our China Opportunity Forum, and the conversations pointed to an industry moving into a more normalized, disciplined phase after several years of post-pandemic volatility. Supply growth is slowing for structural reasons – returns have softened, and the pandemic-exit rebound in investor interest has largely played out – setting the stage for a healthier RevPAR (revenue per available room) environment in 2026: not a sharp rebound, but a stabilization supported by mode ...

Macquarie Equity Research 23 January 2026 China Lodging Focusing on quality growth to drive margins Key Points Consumer Services China Sunny Chow Linda Huang, CFA Figure 1 - Our China lodging coverage | Name Ticker | | Rec | Mkt cap | Price | | TP TP Change | TSR | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | US$m | (lcy$/sh) (lcy$/sh) | | % | (%) | | H World HTHT. US | 1179 HK OP | | 15,445 | US$50 HK$38 | US$59 HK$46 | 18% | 25% | | Atour | ATAT.US OP | | 5,219 | US$38 | US$48 | 9% | 28% | | ...

(一)供给侧：行业稳定现金流特征使得总供给受其他物业切入增量边际扰动，但开店与投资回报需求平 衡下行业有望进入新常态增长阶段，以龙头为例储备店较高位呈现回落;此前国内酒店周期复苏和下降 时一般均为量先行，价随后;本轮周期拐点伴随龙头从"OCC优先"转向"最优RevPAR"策略调整，行业呈 现价格先行特征，其中华住Q3 ADR已率先转正;背后本质是核心城市连锁化率与集中度提升，龙头核心 物业获取能力提升、收益管理系统升级与属地化改革深化定价权，因此有望展现出更强溢价能力;酒店 REITs制度性破冰，为运营效率优势龙头提供资本化思路。(二)需求端：休闲旅游景气，商旅需求基数 走低，十五五首年叠加服务消费政策提供看涨期权。 本轮行情正在顺应估值体系演进，当前时点重视龙头第三阶段估值修复 疫后周期变化下，龙头行情启动节奏与驱动因素呈现显著差异：一是成长性龙头穿越周期最早启动，亚 朵凭借新零售业务进入变现加速期，轻资产加盟扩张维持行业最快增速，成长性阿尔法属性凸显，股价 已于2024下半年率先启动，后续核心观察中高端品牌价值持续变现及轻居第二曲线;二是强阿尔法龙头 周期拐点领先估值修复，华住依托万店规模优势维持快速轻资 ...

Core Insights - The hospitality and travel industry is facing a critical challenge where customer service is no longer just a response center but a key operational node that impacts conversion rates, repurchase rates, and service efficiency [3] - Travelers are increasingly impatient, prioritizing immediate responses over cleanliness or food quality, leading to rising labor costs exceeding 30% [3][4] Group 1: AI Integration in Customer Service - The integration of AI in customer service is evolving from a simple response system to a comprehensive concierge service that can drive repurchase [7] - AI can reduce ineffective inquiries and compress interaction rounds through dual engines of itinerary and location [7] - The boundaries of proactive care are defined by time thresholds, types of benefits, and push frequency [7] Group 2: Human-AI Collaboration in Customer Service - There is a need to identify which services should be handled by AI and which should remain human-operated across pre-stay, in-stay, and post-stay phases [8] - Examples of both successful and failed cases of intelligent distribution and human-machine collaboration are discussed [8] Group 3: Unique Challenges of AI in Hospitality - The hospitality sector cannot simply adopt retail models for AI customer service due to different operational needs [8] - The effectiveness boundary between scene-level knowledge graphs and Q&A knowledge bases is highlighted [8] - Compliance and safety issues arise when agents transition from "suggestion" to "execution" [8]

Core Viewpoint - The hotel industry is experiencing a dichotomy, with some players struggling while others thrive through innovation in operations and business models, emphasizing efficiency and cash flow health over mere expansion [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The economic hotel segment is shrinking, with brands like Pudding Hotel and Wan Feng exiting the market, while leading players like Huazhu and Atour are leveraging "stay + retail" and AI technology to enhance their operations [1][3]. - The focus has shifted from opening new locations to improving operational efficiency and innovating business models, as the era of aggressive expansion is over [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Challenges - The hotel industry is capital-intensive, with long payback periods, particularly for mid-range hotels, which now have a return cycle extending to 5-6 years, compounded by tightening financing conditions [3][4]. - Many innovative ideas are hindered by a lack of funding, as hotels face significant financial pressure [3][4]. Group 3: Digital Hotel Solutions - A new digital hotel solution has emerged, aiming to tokenize future revenue rights of hotels into digital equity, allowing public investors to purchase these rights [4][6]. - For example, a hotel with 300 rooms can issue 20,000 digital rights at 2,000 yuan each, generating 40 million yuan in cash without incurring debt, effectively "securitizing" future room revenues [6][7]. Group 4: Benefits of Digital Solutions - This approach provides quick capital for hotels, allowing them to bypass traditional financing routes and directly attract market investment [7][9]. - Tokenizing assets enhances liquidity, enabling holders to transfer rights in a compliant secondary market, thus unlocking the value of previously illiquid assets [7][9]. - The model fosters a win-win ecosystem where equity holders are also long-term customers, enhancing customer loyalty and trust through transparent digital technology [7][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - With the influx of funds from digital equity sales, hotels can further develop their "stay + retail" offerings, creating more sophisticated environments and products [9][10]. - The integration of AI with clear user profiles and blockchain data can lead to more precise service delivery and automated management of rights [9][10]. - The hotel industry is likely to evolve into a multifaceted value platform that combines investment, consumption, and brand experience, moving beyond traditional accommodation services [10].

Summary of Hotel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The hotel industry is experiencing an upward trend driven by supply-demand dynamics and structural optimization, with a significant mismatch in supply and demand in 2023 due to a post-pandemic demand surge while supply lagged behind, leading to increased Average Daily Rates (ADR) [1][2] - The chain hotel rate in China is approximately 40%, lower than over 70% in the U.S., indicating potential for growth in the chain hotel segment, particularly in the economy sector [1][10] Key Insights - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: The pandemic caused a significant reduction in hotel supply, with recovery to pre-pandemic levels only occurring in 2023 and 2024. The mismatch in supply and demand has led to a notable increase in ADR, attracting single hotels back into the market, which disrupts the chain rate [2][4] - **Challenges Facing the Industry**: The hotel industry faces challenges such as oversupply, deteriorating operations, and intense competition. Single hotels are heavily reliant on Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) for customer acquisition, facing high commission rates, while large chain hotels are reducing dependence on OTAs through proprietary channels [5][6][8] - **Investor Sentiment**: Despite low returns, investors are attracted to the hotel industry due to stable cash flows, reasonable payback periods (5-6 years, with some regions achieving 4 years), and opportunities for property transformation [5][9] Performance of Major Brands - **Huazhu Group**: The group operates approximately 11,000 to 12,000 stores, with improvements in RevPAR for its economy brands (Hanting, Haiyou) and mid-to-high-end brand (Quanjing) in Q4 2026. However, most other brands have not shown recovery, indicating that the recovery is not widespread across the industry [12][14] - **Investment Returns**: There are significant differences in returns when investing in different hotel brands. For instance, Quanjing has shown higher premiums compared to Jinjiang's Vienna brand, which has performed poorly [13] Future Trends and Recommendations - **Chain Rate Trends**: The chain rate is expected to continue growing, particularly in the luxury and mid-to-high-end segments, while the economy segment may see a decline due to the influx of single hotels [4][9] - **Impact of Policy Changes**: Upcoming policy changes, such as the potential expansion of holiday systems, are expected to positively impact travel and hotel demand, creating more opportunities for the industry [17] - **Recommendations for Investors**: Focus on large chain brands like Huazhu, which have shown strong growth potential. However, due to Huazhu not being available on the Hong Kong Stock Connect, investors are recommended to consider Shoulv, which is showing positive trends [18][19] Conclusion - The hotel industry is in a stabilization phase, with signs of recovery in select brands. However, the overall recovery is not expected to be uniform across the industry, and competition is likely to intensify as single hotels engage in price wars. Investors should prioritize large chain brands with strong growth momentum for future investments [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

Core Insights - The hotel industry is facing a significant downturn, with many brands struggling to maintain profitability and market presence as evidenced by the forced delisting of Buding Hotels and the sudden closure of Marriott's Hangzhou hotel [1][2] - Economic hotel room availability is declining, with only 54% of the market share remaining by the end of 2024, and major players like Jinjiang, Shoulv, and Huazhu are shifting focus from expansion to renovation of existing properties [1][3] - The competitive landscape is evolving from a focus on scale to one emphasizing quality and innovation, with a notable shift towards the "stay + retail" model as a new revenue stream [5][6] Industry Trends - The global hotel industry is experiencing high saturation, with new brand survival rates below 35%, leading to significant closures among older, less profitable properties [3] - Major hotel groups are reporting mixed financial results, with Huazhu leading in occupancy rates and revenue per available room (RevPAR), while Jinjiang shows revenue decline despite profit growth [4] - The shift towards a "quality era" in the hotel industry is marked by a focus on operational efficiency, cost control, and innovative business models rather than mere expansion [4][10] Innovations and Strategies - The integration of AI technology is transforming hotel operations, with predictions that 75% of hotels will automate processes by 2025, although the domestic market still lags in implementation [8][9] - The "stay + retail" model is gaining traction, with hotels like Atour and Hanting introducing retail options that enhance guest experiences and increase non-room revenue [5][6] - Future success in the hotel industry will depend on the ability to offer tailored products and services that meet the diverse needs of different customer segments, alongside maintaining quality control in a franchise-heavy environment [10]