Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call John Plant: Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ken Giacobbe: EVP and Chief Financial Officer October 30, 2025 Important Information Forward–Looking Statements This presentation contains statements that relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include those containing such words as "anticipates", "believes", "coul ...

Core Insights - Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) reported its financial results for Q3 and provided guidance for Q4 and full-year 2025 [1][2] Q4 Guidance - The company expects adjusted earnings between $0.94 and $0.96 per share, with revenues projected between $2.09 billion and $2.11 billion for Q4 [1] - Analysts' average expectations for Q4 are earnings of $0.94 per share and revenues of $2.12 billion [2] Full-Year 2025 Outlook - For fiscal 2025, Howmet Aerospace projects adjusted earnings in the range of $3.66 to $3.68 per share, with revenues between approximately $8.175 billion and $8.195 billion [2] - This is an increase from previous projections of adjusted earnings between $3.56 and $3.64 per share and revenues between about $8.08 billion and $8.18 billion [2] - The Street anticipates earnings of $3.63 per share and revenues of $8.15 billion for the year [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 30% to $23.3 billion, driven by improved operational performance, higher commercial deliveries, and defense volume [18] - Free cash flow was positive at $238 million, marking the first positive cash flow quarter since Q4 2023 [18][19] - Core loss per share was $7.47, primarily reflecting a $4.9 billion charge related to the 777X program [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) delivered 160 airplanes in the quarter, the highest quarterly delivery total since 2018, with revenue up nearly 50% to $11.1 billion [20] - BCA's operating margin was negative 48.3%, impacted by the 777X charge [20] - Defense business (BDS) delivered 30 aircraft and two satellites, with revenue growing 25% to $6.9 billion and an operating margin of 1.7% [25] - Global Services (BGS) revenue increased by 10% to $5.4 billion, with an operating margin of 17.5% [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The backlog ended at $535 billion, including over 5,900 airplanes, with strong demand across all market segments [20][30] - BDS secured $9 billion in orders during the quarter, with a record backlog of $76 billion [25][28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on safety and quality improvements, with a commitment to culture change and operational excellence [4][15] - Plans to increase 737 production to 42 airplanes per month were announced, with a disciplined approach to future rate increases [5][21] - The 777X program faced delays, with first delivery now expected in 2027, leading to a $4.9 billion non-cash charge [10][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery trajectory, highlighting positive cash flow and improved performance across the company [17][30] - The geopolitical environment is seen as favorable for the defense business, with ongoing demand for military capabilities [12][27] - Management acknowledged challenges in the supply chain but remains optimistic about future production rates and operational stability [59][71] Other Important Information - The company is undergoing significant investments in its facilities, particularly in Charleston, to support future production increases [89] - The integration of Jeppesen and Spirit AeroSystems is a priority, with expected impacts on free cash flow next year [85] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the negative cash flow in 2026 on the 777X? - Management expects a headwind of about $2 billion in 2026, with a path to break-even cash flow anticipated by 2028 [32][33] Question: What changed regarding the 777X program? - The delay is due to underestimating the work required for TIA approvals, not due to new issues with the airplane [39][41] Question: How will the supply chain be managed for the 777X? - The revised schedule will be communicated to suppliers, with negotiations on a case-by-case basis to manage impacts [53] Question: What are the production rates for the 737? - The company plans to exit the year at a 42 per month rate, with future increases being carefully managed [58][60] Question: What is the status of the 737 MAX 7 and 10 certifications? - Certification is progressing, with a focus on engine anti-ice design updates and expected completion in 2026 [66][67] Question: What are the plans for the 787 production ramp? - The next increase will be to 10 per month, with challenges anticipated in the supply chain, particularly for seats [71] Question: What is the outlook for free cash flow in 2026? - Management is optimistic about a break-even or low to mid-single-digit inflow of cash, depending on operational performance [75]

Core Insights - The global aviation industry is experiencing growth driven by increased aircraft deliveries, expanding airline fleets, and rising demand for fuel-efficient jet engines [1][3] - Rolls-Royce and Boeing are leading players in the aerospace sector, focusing on propulsion technologies, sustainable aviation, and aftermarket services [1][2] Company Overview: Rolls-Royce - Rolls-Royce is transforming to enhance efficiency and develop hybrid-electric propulsion systems [2] - The company reported a 17% year-over-year increase in sales from its Civil Aerospace segment in the first half of 2025 [6] - Rolls-Royce ended June 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $7.95 billion and gross debt of $4.64 billion, indicating a solid solvency position [4] Company Overview: Boeing - Boeing is advancing its leadership through innovations in aircraft design, engineering, and maintenance solutions [2] - The Boeing Commercial Airplanes division reported a 63% year-over-year rise in revenues for the second quarter of 2025 [6] - As of June 30, 2025, Boeing had cash and cash equivalents of $22.97 billion, with long-term debt totaling $44.60 billion [5] Growth Drivers - The recovery in global air passenger traffic has fueled demand for jet engines and related services, benefiting both companies [6] - Rising global demand for defense equipment has also supported revenue growth, with Rolls-Royce reporting a 1% increase in defense revenues and Boeing's defense segment seeing a 10% rise [7] Competitive Positioning - Rolls-Royce benefits from a strong position in widebody aircraft engines and a diversified portfolio, including marine propulsion technologies [8] - Boeing holds a dominant position in the global commercial aircraft market, excelling in advanced aerostructures and digital flight systems [8] Financial Performance and Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rolls-Royce's 2025 sales and EPS implies improvements of 27.8% and 50%, respectively [13] - Boeing's 2025 sales estimate suggests a year-over-year growth of 29.5, but its near-term estimates have declined over the past 60 days [14] Stock Performance - Rolls-Royce has outperformed Boeing over the past year, with a stock increase of 105.8% compared to Boeing's 38.8% [16] - Rolls-Royce is trading at a premium with a forward price/sales ratio of 4.49X, while Boeing's is 1.80X [17] Final Assessment - Both companies are well-positioned for long-term growth in the aerospace industry, but Rolls-Royce appears better positioned for stronger performance in 2025 [19][20] - Rolls-Royce's focus on widebody aircraft engines and sustainable technologies enhances its growth prospects, while Boeing faces challenges related to supply-chain disruptions [20][21]

Core Insights - Boeing's stock experienced a significant decline following the release of its third-quarter earnings report, which highlighted substantial operational challenges despite an increase in revenue [1] Financial Performance - The company reported revenue growth, but the earnings report revealed underlying operational difficulties that could impact future performance [1] Market Reaction - The market responded negatively to the earnings report, indicating investor concerns regarding Boeing's operational efficiency and overall business health [1]

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has delayed the first delivery of its 777X jet program to 2027 and incurred a nearly $5 billion charge due to these delays, compounding financial strain on the company [1][2]. Group 1: 777X Program Delays - The 777X is crucial to Boeing's long-term widebody strategy, but repeated certification and production delays have resulted in over $15 billion in charges and delayed deliveries by years, allowing competitors like Airbus to gain market share [2][3]. - CEO Kelly Ortberg acknowledged that the company is behind schedule in certifying the jet, citing a "mountain of work" ahead, but did not indicate further delays beyond the previously expected 2026 delivery [3]. - The latest charge includes penalties owed to customers for late deliveries, reflecting longer production costs and the financial impact of the delays [5]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Analyst Insights - Boeing's shares fell 1% in premarket trading, with analysts anticipating a significant charge to the 777X program, which turned out to be higher than expected [4]. - Richard Aboulafia from AeroDynamic Advisory noted that while the charge is substantial, it may not be financially crippling for Boeing, but it raises concerns about potential future surprises [4]. Group 3: Production and Financial Performance - Boeing ramped up its 737 MAX production cautiously, receiving FAA approval to increase output to 42 jets per month, following previous quality issues and production delays [6]. - In September, Boeing delivered 55 jets, the highest for that month since 2018, a significant increase from 33 deliveries the previous year due to a strike [7]. - The company reported a free cash flow of $238 million, marking its first positive cash flow since 2023, with revenues rising 30% to $23.27 billion, exceeding Wall Street expectations [8].

Core Insights - Boeing reported a charge of nearly $5 billion related to delays in its 777X jet program [1] Financial Impact - The charge of nearly $5 billion indicates significant financial implications for Boeing, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the 777X program [1]

Core Insights - Boeing is expected to report over a 20% increase in revenue and a narrower loss in its third-quarter results, indicating recovery after previous safety crises [1][2] - The company is on track to deliver the highest number of aircraft in 2024 since 2018, following challenges from crashes and the COVID-19 pandemic [2][4] Financial Performance - Analysts estimate Boeing's third-quarter revenue to be $21.97 billion, compared to $17.84 billion in the same period last year [2][5] - The expected loss per share for the third quarter is $5.15, an improvement from an adjusted loss of $10.44 per share last year [2][5] Operational Improvements - CEO Kelly Ortberg has focused on stabilizing Boeing's supply chain and improving production efficiency, leading to better delivery projections for airline customers [3] - In the first nine months of 2024, Boeing delivered 440 airplanes, a significant increase from 291 in the same period last year, which is crucial for cash flow management [4]

Core Insights - The X-59 quiet supersonic jet, developed by Lockheed Martin for NASA, has successfully completed its first test flight in California, marking a significant step towards faster commercial air travel [1] Company Summary - Lockheed Martin, a key player in aerospace and defense, is responsible for the development of the X-59 jet, which aims to revolutionize air travel by enabling supersonic speeds [1] Industry Summary - The successful test flight of the X-59 jet indicates progress in the supersonic aviation sector, potentially leading to advancements in commercial air travel efficiency and speed [1]

Group 1 - ATI's shares increased by as much as 12.9% in early trading due to strong third-quarter earnings and an increase in full-year guidance, indicating positive momentum heading into 2026 [1] - The company generates approximately 86% of its revenue from the aerospace and defense sectors, with 60% specifically from commercial jet engine products [2] - The aerospace market is characterized by a limited number of customers, primarily driven by aircraft production from Boeing and Airbus, as well as engine manufacturing from GE Aerospace, RTX's Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce [3] Group 2 - Several competitors in the aerospace sector, including GE and RTX, have reported accelerating growth and raised their full-year guidance, reflecting a positive trend in the industry [4] - The aerospace supply chain is recovering, leading to improved availability of parts, which enhances growth outlooks for both ATI and its competitors [6] - ATI raised its full-year earnings per share guidance to $3.15-$3.21 from $2.90-$3.07, indicating strong expectations for 2026 [7]