Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fiscal year 2025 saw diluted earnings per share reach $14.64, a 9% increase from the prior year [9] - The company generated a record $547 million in net income and $1.2 billion in EBITDA, marking a 13% increase from the previous year [9] - Total inside sales grew by 10.9% during the year, with inside same-store sales up 2.6% [10] - Total operating expenses increased by 14.5% or $84 million in the fourth quarter, with approximately 12% attributed to unit growth [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total prepared food and dispensed beverage sales grew by 10.3%, with same-store sales up 3.5% [10] - Total grocery and general merchandise sales increased by 11.2%, with same-store sales up 2.3% [10] - Fuel gross profit rose by 11%, with total fuel gallons sold up 13% [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Same-store fuel gallons sold increased by 0.1% with a fuel margin of 37.6¢ per gallon [17] - Retail fuel sales rose by $162 million in the fourth quarter, primarily due to a 17.8% increase in total gallons sold [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to open at least 80 stores in fiscal year 2026, contributing to a total of approximately 500 stores over a three-year strategic plan [24] - The strategic plan focuses on accelerating the food business, growing the number of units, and enhancing operational efficiency [27] - The company is committed to improving operating expense management and generating more free cash flow [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business model's strength and durability, indicating the ability to succeed in various economic climates [12] - The company expects EBITDA to increase between 10% to 12% in fiscal year 2026, with inside same-store sales projected to rise by 2% to 5% [23] - Management acknowledged the impact of external factors, including inflation and consumer behavior, on sales outlook [46][62] Other Important Information - The effective tax rate for the quarter was 23%, compared to 22.4% in the prior year [21] - The company plans to allocate approximately $125 million for share repurchases in fiscal year 2026 [23][88] Q&A Session Summary Question: Fuel margins performance and expectations - Management noted that fuel margins exceeded expectations due to effective pricing management and improved procurement capabilities [34] Question: Guidance and synergies from acquisitions - Management discussed the expected headwinds from acquisitions and the anticipated synergies, particularly in fuel pricing and overhead rationalization [36] Question: Inside sales performance and drivers - Management acknowledged that inside sales fell slightly short of expectations due to a softer start in the fiscal year and adverse weather conditions [54] Question: Impact of illicit vape on sales - Management confirmed that illicit vape has negatively impacted the vape category, but noted growth in nicotine alternatives [59] Question: Consumer behavior and promotional strategies - Management indicated that consumer traffic remains stable, with targeted promotions aimed at different income cohorts [61][63] Question: Operating expenses guidance - Management provided insights into the expected cadence of operating expenses, highlighting the impact of acquisitions on the first half of fiscal year 2026 [66] Question: Share buyback strategy - Management clarified that the planned share buybacks would be funded through operating cash flow, with no additional debt drawn [88]

Market Performance - The small-cap Russell 2000 index increased by +10% over the past month, although it remains down -4% year to date [1] - The S&P 500 index stayed above the 6000 mark, gaining +0.09% on the day, while the Nasdaq rose by +0.31% [3] - The Dow index remained unchanged at 0.00%, influenced by a -1.2% drop in Apple shares [2][5] Company News: Apple - Apple shares fell -1.2% following a lackluster performance at the Worldwide Developers Conference, where details on AI competition were sparse [2] - Apple shares are down -29.5% from their 52-week highs reached after Christmas last year [2] Company News: Casey's General Stores - Casey's General Stores reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $2.63 per share, exceeding the Zacks consensus by 70 cents, with a year-over-year growth of +12.4% [6] - Revenues reached $3.99 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.97 billion [6] - Same-store sales increased by +1.7%, and the company raised its dividend by +14% to 57 cents per share, marking its 26th consecutive increase [7] - Casey's shares are now trading at new all-time highs, reflecting strong performance [7]

Core Insights - Casey's General Stores reported strong fiscal 2025 results with double-digit revenue and earnings growth, exceeding expectations [2][5] - The company is effectively navigating a challenging retail environment, driven by strong bakery, hot sandwich, and nonalcoholic beverage sales [3][7] Financial Performance - Q4 FY24 revenue was $3.60 billion, increasing to $3.99 billion in Q4 FY25, representing an 11% growth [1] - Earnings per share rose from $2.34 to $2.63, marking a 12% increase [1] - Inside same-store sales grew by 1.7% in Q4 FY25, with a full-year growth of 2.6%, outperforming the industry [3] Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced same-store labor hours for 12 consecutive quarters, maintaining overall inside margin year over year [3] Growth Strategy - Casey's expanded its store count from 2,658 to 2,904, including 35 new builds and a $1.1 billion acquisition of Fikes Wholesale, its largest deal to date [4] - The company plans to open at least 80 new stores in fiscal 2026, continuing a three-year plan to expand by approximately 500 stores [6] Shareholder Returns - Casey's increased its quarterly dividend by 14% to $0.57 per share, marking the 26th consecutive annual increase [4] Market Reaction - Following the earnings release, Casey's stock rose over 7%, indicating positive investor sentiment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Casey's General Stores, Inc. is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings while projecting an increase in revenue for the fourth quarter [1] Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate quarterly earnings of $1.95 per share, down from $2.34 per share in the same period last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $3.95 billion, compared to $3.6 billion a year earlier [1] Analyst Coverage - Keybanc analyst Bradley Thomas initiated coverage of Casey's with an Overweight rating and set a price target of $500 [2] Dividend Information - Casey's offers an annual dividend yield of 0.45%, translating to a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share, or $2.00 annually [2] - To achieve a monthly dividend income of $500, an investor would need to own approximately 3,000 shares, equating to a total investment of about $1,337,070 [4] - For a more conservative monthly income goal of $100, an investor would need 600 shares, requiring an investment of approximately $267,414 [4] Dividend Yield Dynamics - The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the current stock price, which can fluctuate based on stock price changes [5] - An increase in stock price results in a lower dividend yield, while a decrease leads to a higher yield [5] - Changes in the dividend payment itself can also impact the dividend yield, with increases leading to higher yields and decreases resulting in lower yields [6] Stock Performance - Shares of Casey's fell by 0.6% to close at $445.69 on Thursday [6]

Group 1 - Casey's General Stores is expected to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on June 9, 2025, with analysts predicting earnings of $1.95 per share and revenue of $3.95 billion, reflecting a 17% decrease in earnings year-over-year and a 10% increase in sales compared to the previous year [2] - In the third quarter, Casey's reported an 11% year-over-year rise in EBITDA, with net income remaining unchanged but projected to have increased by 15% when excluding one-off expenses from a $1.1 billion acquisition [3] - The company has a market capitalization of $17 billion, with total revenue reaching $16 billion over the last twelve months, operational profits of $768 million, and net income of $535 million [3] Group 2 - Historical trends indicate that Casey's stock has dipped 65% of the time after earnings announcements, with a median one-day decline of 2.9% and a maximum drop of 7% [2] - Over the last five years, there have been 20 earnings data points for Casey's, with 7 positive and 13 negative one-day returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 35% of the time [6] - The median of the 7 positive returns is 7.4%, while the median of the 13 negative returns is -2.9% [6]

Core Insights - ARKO Corp. has been recognized on the 2025 Fortune 500 list, ranking No. 488, marking its fourth consecutive year on the list, which highlights companies based on total revenue in the United States [1][2] Company Overview - ARKO Corp. is one of the largest convenience store operators and fuel wholesalers in the United States, owning 100% of GPM Investments, LLC [5] - The company operates approximately 3,600 locations as of March 31, 2025, having grown from 169 stores since its founding in 2003 [3] - The operational structure includes approximately 1,330 company-operated stores, over 1,960 independent dealer sites, and around 280 unmanned fleet fueling locations [3] Business Strategy - In 2024, the company initiated a multi-year transformation plan, converting 153 company-operated stores to dealer sites and investing strategically in high-growth areas such as food service and tobacco products [3] - The company emphasizes customer engagement and delivering value, aiming for long-term growth and optimization of its store portfolio [2]

Core Insights - Analysts expect Casey's General Stores (CASY) to report quarterly earnings of $1.93 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 17.5% [1] - Revenue is projected to be $3.97 billion, indicating a 10.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a reevaluation of initial estimates by analysts [1] - Analysts forecast 'Net Sales- Fuel' to reach $2.40 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 5.3% [3] - The estimate for 'Net Sales- Other' stands at $134.72 million, suggesting a significant year-over-year increase of 104% [4] Sales and Store Metrics - 'Net Sales- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is estimated at $400.18 million, indicating a 12.1% increase from the prior year [4] - 'Net Sales- Grocery & General Merchandise' is projected to be $1.02 billion, reflecting a year-over-year change of 13.1% [4] - 'Same-store sales - Grocery & General Merchandise' are expected to reach a year-over-year change of 2.0%, down from 4.3% [5] - The 'Number of Stores (EOP)' is predicted to be 2,918, up from 2,658 year-over-year [5] Profit Estimates - 'Gross Profit- Grocery & General Merchandise' is expected to reach $348.35 million, compared to $310.17 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Gross Profit- Prepared Food & Dispensed Beverage' is projected at $228.54 million, up from $207.44 million in the same quarter last year [7] - 'Gross Profit- Other' is estimated to be $37.11 million, compared to $26.85 million from the previous year [8] Market Performance - Shares of Casey's have decreased by 6.1% in the past month, contrasting with a 5.2% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [8] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [8]

Core Insights - Casey's General Stores, Inc. (CASY) is expected to report a revenue increase of 10.3% year over year for Q4 fiscal 2025, with projected revenues of $3,969 million [1][9] - Earnings per share (EPS) are anticipated to decline by 17.5% year over year, with a consensus estimate of $1.93 per share [2][9] Revenue Drivers - The company's strong performance is attributed to its resilient business model, enhanced omnichannel capabilities, and exclusive private-label offerings [3] - Significant growth is expected in the prepared food and dispensed beverage segments, with a projected revenue increase of 13.2% [4] - Grocery and general merchandise categories are also expected to see a 12.7% increase in sales, driven by trending items like energy drinks [5] - Inside sales are projected to rise by 12.8%, with same-store sales growing by 2.6%, reflecting strong foodservice innovation and effective promotions [6] Challenges - The anticipated decline in earnings is primarily due to the dilutive impact of the Fikes acquisition, which has led to higher interest expenses and additional integration costs [7][9] - Other factors affecting profitability include the absence of the leap day benefit from the previous year and adverse weather conditions impacting February sales [7][9] - Operating expenses are expected to increase by 14.9% for the quarter [7]

Company Overview - Casey's General Stores, Inc. operates nearly 2900 convenience stores across 20 states in the U.S. [1] - The company differentiates itself by focusing on small towns and emphasizing prepared food offerings [1] Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy revolves around identifying mispriced securities by understanding the drivers behind a company's financials [1] - A DCF model valuation is often used to reveal the true value of a stock, allowing for a flexible approach to investment that considers all prospects [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an underweight rating on Japanese equities within the Asian context [6]. Core Insights - Japanese equities have rebounded 20% since the sharp decline following "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2024, primarily driven by foreign investors who purchased a net USD 17 billion in Japanese stocks during this period [2][9]. - The report identifies four key catalysts affecting the market: the Yen, corporate governance, earnings growth, and local investors [10]. Summary by Sections Yen - The USDJPY exchange rate remains a significant driver for Japanese equities, despite a weakening historical correlation. The JPY has appreciated 9% year-to-date, negatively impacting exporters [3][27]. Corporate Governance - Improvements in corporate governance are noted, with a 70% increase in stock buybacks in 2024 and a decline in average strategic shareholdings from 13.5% in 2015 to 8.4% in FY23. However, the report suggests that the impact on profitability will take time, and ROE still lags behind other major markets [4][18][21]. Earnings Growth - Earnings growth expectations for 2025 have been revised down from 10% to 7%, with consensus forecasts for both export-oriented and domestic sectors being cut. The cautious outlook is reflected in the Q1 2025 earnings season [5][61]. Local Investors - Local investors are currently under-invested in equities, with over half of household financial assets in cash. A mere 1 percentage point shift from cash to equities could result in USD 220 billion flowing into the market. There are signs of increasing interest in equities among households, particularly following the expansion of the Nippon Individual Savings Account (NISA) program [6][46][50].