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Standard Chartered Bank Kenya has signed a $100 million deal with British International Investment to support trade finance and working capital needs for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, The EastAfrican newspaper reported https://t.co/PtzTr4xwni ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic factors affecting global trade, particularly focusing on tariffs proposed by the Trump Administration and their implications for various economies, including the EU, Brazil, and Mexico [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Implications**: - A proposed 30% tariff on the EU could reduce Euro area GDP by over 1.2% through the end of 2026 [1]. - A proposed 50% tariff on Brazil may lower Brazil's GDP growth by more than 0.3-0.4 percentage points [1]. - The 30% tariff on Mexico is expected to have modest impacts due to current exemptions for USMCA-compliant exports, but significant impacts could arise if these exemptions are removed [1]. - **Expectations on Tariff Implementation**: - It is generally anticipated that the higher proposed tariffs will not take effect, viewing them as a negotiating tactic. A more likely scenario is an increase of the baseline tariff from 10% to 15% for countries that do not reach agreements with the US by the August 1 deadline [2]. - The expectation is for a slight decrease in the near-term US effective tariff rate, with a potential rise to a level approximately 3 percentage points higher than previously estimated [2]. - **Market Reactions**: - Market participants do not expect most proposed tariffs to be enacted, which has contributed to a muted market reaction. The S&P 500 reached new all-time highs, with expectations for further rises in US, European, and emerging market equities [3]. Additional Important Insights - **Inflation Trends**: - Despite a below-consensus rise in US core CPI in June, expectations are for core CPI/PCE inflation to rise to 3.1%/3.3% year-on-year by December, driven by higher tariffs impacting core goods prices [6]. - In contrast, the UK experienced an unexpected rise in CPI, with services inflation expected to remain above target levels throughout 2025 [7]. - **China's Economic Situation**: - China is experiencing its 33rd consecutive month of year-on-year PPI deflation, with expectations for continued price declines. Headline PPI inflation is projected to decline by 2.8% year-on-year this year and 1.0% next year [8]. - **Commodity Market Outlook**: - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2H25 has been raised to $66 per barrel, while the LME copper price forecast for August 2025 has been lowered to $9,550 per ton [14]. - **US Housing Market**: - Home price appreciation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to 0.5% and 1.2%, respectively, reflecting ongoing weakness in home price data and a gradual recovery in housing supply [14]. - **Treasury Cash Balance**: - The Treasury's cash balance is expected to be replenished following a recent increase in the debt limit, potentially returning to $850 billion by the end of Q3, which may lead to upward pressure on funding costs [14]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic landscape is influenced by proposed tariffs, inflation trends, and commodity prices, with significant implications for global GDP growth and market performance. The focus remains on how these factors will evolve in the coming quarters, particularly in relation to trade negotiations and economic recovery efforts across different regions.

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Market Trends & Activities - Goldman Sachs 的 CEO David Solomon 讨论了股票交易和并购活动 [1] Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs 的 CEO David Solomon 表达了对美联储的期望 [1]

Julius Baer plans to cut bonuses for relationship managers tied to high-risk business, aiming to shift its pay culture, sources say https://t.co/UYf0D9vaX2 ...

Digital Payments & Innovation - Citigroup is considering issuing its own stablecoin to facilitate digital payments [1] Leadership - CEO Jane Fraser announced Citigroup's stablecoin consideration [1]