Economic Overview - In January-February 2026, China's industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and showing a significant acceleration compared to the end of the previous year[11] - In Henan Province, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.8%, outperforming the national average by 1.5 percentage points, indicating strong industrial performance[13] Consumption Trends - Nationally, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 86,079 billion yuan, growing by 2.8% year-on-year, but still below the 2025 full-year growth of 3.7%[17] - In Henan, the total retail sales of consumer goods surpassed 520 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than the national average[18] Investment Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 52,721 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, marking a significant recovery from the -3.8% decline in 2025[21] - In Henan, fixed asset investment grew by 3.0%, higher than the national average, with industrial investment increasing by 10.2%[29] Real Estate Market - Nationally, real estate development investment fell by 11.1%, although this was an improvement from the -17.2% decline in 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[25] - In Henan, real estate development investment decreased by 6.6%, with sales and funding indicators still in a downward trend, reflecting a sluggish market[29] Economic Outlook - The economic performance in early 2026 is characterized by strong production, recovering consumption, and positive investment trends, but effective demand remains weak[34] - The Henan government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to boost market confidence and vitality[34]

Core Insights - The A-share index experienced significant fluctuations and a downward trend due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, which has led to rising international oil prices and is expected to significantly increase global inflation rates, negatively impacting GDP growth in 2026 [2][3][14]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the top gainers were non-ferrous metals and public utilities, with increases of 2.78% and 2.50% respectively, while the largest declines were seen in non-bank financials and computers, which fell by 3.98% and 3.44% respectively [4][19]. - In the 124 second-level industries, the highest weekly gains were in energy metals and steel raw materials, with increases of 13.38% and 5.35%. Year-to-date, the leading sectors were oil service engineering and glass fiber, with cumulative gains of 40.31% and 23.84% respectively. Conversely, the largest weekly declines were in marine equipment II and insurance II, which dropped by 5.57% and 5.52% [4][22]. - Among the 259 third-level industries, the top weekly performers were communication cables and battery chemicals, with increases of 8.77% and 7.74%. Year-to-date, communication cables and oil and refining engineering led with gains of 56.34% and 55.02%. The largest weekly declines were in LED and home appliances, which fell by 9.27% and 7.96% [5][24]. Macro Data - Industrial profits for the first two months of 2026 showed a significant year-on-year increase of 15.20%, a stark contrast to the near-zero growth of -0.30% in the same period of 2025. This growth is attributed to a low base effect and the historical volatility of profit data in January and February, necessitating further months of data to confirm sustainability [6][25]. Investment Recommendations - In the long term, 2026 is viewed as the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with continued proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies expected to support stable domestic economic performance and a "slow bull" market for A-shares [7][26]. - In the short term, following the conclusion of the Two Sessions, the market is expected to return to normal operations. The ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts are identified as a primary short-term factor affecting the A-share market. A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend sectors related to long-term defensive capital inflows and segments benefiting from the sustained conflict [8][26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [9] Core Insights - In January-February 2026, narrow infrastructure investment grew by 10.9% and broad infrastructure investment grew by 11.4%, indicating a significant increase compared to the second half of 2025 [2][6] - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year, with a deficit rate set at around 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and a public budget expenditure scale reaching 30 trillion yuan for the first time [13] - The construction sector is expected to remain resilient throughout the year, with a recommendation to strategically focus on undervalued state-owned enterprises [13] Summary by Sections Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that narrow infrastructure investment increased by 10.9% and broad infrastructure investment increased by 11.4% in January-February 2026, marking the first month of positive growth since July 2025 [2][6] Investment Breakdown - Power investment continued to grow significantly, with a 13.1% increase, while transportation and water conservancy investments also saw rapid growth [13] - Specific investment changes include a 9.1% increase in transportation, an 8.3% increase in water conservancy, and a 0.6% decline in road transport investment [13] Physical Workload - Cement production increased by 6.8% year-on-year in January-February, with a significant week-on-week rise in cement dispatch volume [13] - The construction site resumption rate reached 42.5%, with a labor utilization rate of 43.9% and a funding availability rate of 42.8% [13] Government Policy - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds to support major projects and address hidden debts [13] - Local government special bonds are set at 4.4 trillion yuan, focusing on major project construction and debt management [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to enhance macro - economic governance efficiency. The proactive fiscal policy has five highlights: maintaining a high fiscal deficit, expanding expenditure, optimizing the expenditure structure, resolving local government debt risks, and promoting fiscal and tax system reform [6][7][9]. - Xinjiang has fully resolved its stock of implicit debts, and Siping and Tonghua in Jilin have declared zero implicit debts. This indicates significant progress in debt resolution in these regions [6][17][18]. - During the statistical period, 15 urban investment enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list, and 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest [6][19][22]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds decreased, while the issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased, but the net financing scale decreased. The trading volume of both local government bonds and urban investment bonds increased [6][23][29]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News Reviews 3.1.1 Five Highlights of the Proactive Fiscal Policy in the Government Work Report - Fiscal deficit remains high: The budget deficit rate in 2026 is planned to be around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The central government's deficit ratio reaches a new high, and the special treasury bond scale decreases. The general deficit scale is 13.89 trillion yuan, with a slightly lower deficit rate. The central and local government leverage ratios increase, and the debt structure is optimized [9]. - Expand expenditure and improve transfer payments: The general public budget expenditure in 2026 will reach 30 trillion yuan. The central budget - inner investment increases, and the central transfer payments to local governments exceed 10 trillion yuan. A pilot project on integrating and coordinating the use of transfer payment funds is proposed [11]. - Optimize the expenditure structure: Focus on boosting consumption, investing in people, and improving people's livelihoods. Allocate 100 billion yuan for fiscal - financial coordinated special funds to expand domestic demand. Explore the preparation of a full - scale government investment plan, and guide private investment to new tracks [12][13]. - Resolve local government debt risks: Continue to resolve local government debt risks in an orderly manner, optimize the replacement rhythm, and build a long - term debt management mechanism. The implicit debt scale may drop to 3.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2026 [14]. - Promote fiscal and tax system reform: Increase the proportion of state - owned capital income collection, expand the scope of zero - based budget reform pilots, and improve the local tax system, including promoting consumption tax reform [16]. 3.1.2 Xinjiang and Some Cities in Jilin Resolve Implicit Debts - Xinjiang announced the full resolution of its stock of implicit debts, becoming the fourth province to achieve full - scale zero implicit debts. Siping and Tonghua in Jilin also declared zero implicit debts [17][18]. 3.1.3 Urban Investment Enterprises "Exit the Platform" - During the statistical period, 15 urban investment enterprises declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities or exited the financing platform list. Most of them are from eastern provinces, with AA + ratings and district - county administrative levels [19]. 3.1.4 Pre - payment of Bonds by Urban Investment Enterprises - 18 urban investment enterprises prepaid bond principal and interest, involving 19 bonds with a total scale of 2.885 billion yuan. Most of the enterprises have AA ratings [22]. 3.2 Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds 3.2.1 Local Government Bonds - The issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased. A total of 76 local bonds were issued, with a scale of 578.556 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance term was 18.27 years, and the issuance cost increased [23]. 3.2.2 Urban Investment Bonds - The issuance scale of urban investment bonds increased, but the net financing decreased. A total of 197 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 135.796 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate decreased, and the issuance spread narrowed. Four overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 3.617 billion yuan [29]. 3.3 Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank had a net capital injection of 935.5 billion yuan. The short - term capital interest rates showed mixed trends. There were no adjustments to urban investment ratings or credit risk events during the statistical period [33]. - The trading volume of local government bonds increased by 90.66% to 877.793 billion yuan, and the maturity yields mostly increased. The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 59.86% to 436.937 billion yuan, and the maturity yields mostly decreased. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds narrowed [35]. - There were 9 abnormal transactions of 9 bonds of 8 urban investment entities, with a decrease in the number of entities, bonds, and transactions compared to the previous period [35]. 3.4 Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - 86 urban investment enterprises announced changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, and equity/asset transfers [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the key points of government bonds in 2026 based on the Government Work Report and the Budget Report, including maintaining a narrow - deficit ratio of 4%, a slight increase in the broad - deficit scale, changes in special treasury bonds, stable new special bond quotas, and suggestions for making good use of government bonds [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Narrow - deficit ratio remains at 4%, broad - deficit slightly rises to 13.89 trillion to ensure necessary expenditure - **Narrow - deficit ratio stability and central tilt**: The narrow - deficit ratio remains at 4%, and the deficit scale reaches 5.89 trillion, an increase of 2300 billion from the previous year. The deficit increase is all in the central government, with the central deficit scale and proportion reaching a record high, which helps optimize the debt structure of the central and local governments [4][6][7]. - **Broad - deficit increase and rate decline**: The broad - deficit scale reaches 13.89 trillion, a slight increase of 300 billion from the previous year, and the broad - deficit rate drops by 0.5 percentage points to 9.4%. It is estimated that the explicit leverage ratio of the government sector will rise by about 6.1 percentage points to 74.7% by the end of the year [10]. 3.2 Special treasury bonds of 1.6 trillion, a decrease of 0.2 trillion year - on - year, focusing more on quality and efficiency - **Ultra - long - term special treasury bonds**: The issuance scale of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds remains at 1.3 trillion, which may drive GDP growth by about 3.24 percentage points. The funds are used for consumer goods replacement, large - scale equipment renewal, "two important" construction, etc. [14][15]. - **300 billion for state - owned commercial banks**: 300 billion is used to support state - owned large - scale commercial banks to supplement capital, a decrease of 200 billion from the previous year, which may bring about 2.3 trillion in new credit [18]. 3.3 New special bond quota of 4.4 trillion remains unchanged, improving negative list management and self - review and self - issuance pilot - **New special bond quota and investment leverage**: The new special bond quota remains at 4.4 trillion, which may leverage 6 trillion in infrastructure investment. It helps to fill the capital gap in infrastructure and leaves room for future development [20][21]. - **Increasing and listing project - construction quota**: The scale of special bonds for project construction may increase by 400 billion to about 3.6 trillion. The investment areas focus on "investing in people", including people's livelihood, new infrastructure, traditional infrastructure, and real estate [23]. - **Improving management and pilot**: Improve the "negative list" management and "self - review and self - issuance" pilot to enhance the efficiency of special bond funds and play a greater role in leveraging government investment [24][25]. 3.4 Suggestions for making good use of government bonds - **Front - loaded efforts**: Speed up the issuance and use of government bonds. In January - February 2026, the issuance of national and local government bonds increased year - on - year, and the issuance of new special bonds was ahead of schedule [27]. - **Synergistic efforts**: Strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies. There may be 1 interest rate cut and 1 - 2 (targeted) reserve requirement ratio cuts this year. Optimize and innovate structural monetary policy tools and issue 800 billion in new policy - based financial tools [30]. - **Effective management**: Improve the whole - process and whole - cycle management, including establishing a government asset - liability table, standardizing information disclosure, optimizing debt monitoring indicators, and improving the debt - repayment guarantee mechanism [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, China's fiscal policy will balance short - term stimulus and long - term stability, focusing on both "activeness" and "sustainability", and shifting from "leveraging up" to "optimizing leverage". The fiscal situation will feature low revenue growth and rigid expenditure, with the revenue side facing challenges such as tax structure imbalance and weak non - tax revenue sustainability, while the expenditure side will see increased intensity in key areas and face issues like low - efficiency capital use and debt - servicing pressure [24][27][49]. - To address these challenges, the fiscal policy in 2026 should focus on boosting domestic demand, supporting infrastructure investment, fostering new - quality productivity, and promoting reform. Specific measures include expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure, strengthening fiscal - financial coordination, improving transfer payment efficiency, deepening tax system reform, expanding zero - based budget reform pilots, and establishing a government asset - liability table for debt management [39][40][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Fiscal Operation Review Fiscal Operation Overview - Revenue: Generalized fiscal revenue declined for two consecutive years, falling short of the budget target by 860 billion yuan. General public budget revenue was 21.60 trillion yuan, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease, and government fund budget revenue was 5.77 trillion yuan, a 7.0% year - on - year decrease [8]. - Expenditure: Generalized fiscal expenditure increased slightly year - on - year but was 2.16 trillion yuan less than the budget target. General public budget expenditure was 28.74 trillion yuan, a 1.0% year - on - year increase, and government fund budget expenditure was 11.29 trillion yuan, an 11.3% year - on - year increase [9]. - Revenue - Expenditure Gap: The gap between actual generalized fiscal revenue and expenditure reached 12.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.3 trillion yuan from the previous year. Government bond issuance reached a record high, with national debt issuance at 16.01 trillion yuan and local government bond issuance at 10.31 trillion yuan [11]. Structural Characteristics of Fiscal Operation - Tax and Non - tax Revenue: Tax revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the four major taxes all showing positive growth. Non - tax revenue decreased by 11.3% year - on - year. The proportion of tax revenue in general public budget revenue rose to 81.6% [15]. - Livelihood and Infrastructure Expenditure: Livelihood expenditure remained a priority, with the combined expenditure on social security, employment, education, and health exceeding 10 trillion yuan, and the proportion increasing to 38.0%. Infrastructure - related expenditure decreased by 6.6% year - on - year, and its proportion dropped to 21.6%. Science and technology expenditure grew by 4.8% year - on - year, and debt - servicing pressure continued to increase [18][19]. - Central and Local Fiscal Expenditure: Central fiscal expenditure increased significantly, with the central government's generalized fiscal expenditure growing at 19.0%, much higher than the local government's 1.6%. The central government's government fund budget expenditure grew at 130%, far higher than the local government's 5.3%. The proportion of local fiscal expenditure in GDP decreased to 24.7% [21]. Fiscal Situation and Revenue - Expenditure Forecast for the "15th Five - Year Plan" Opening Year Fiscal Situation in 2026 - Revenue: Revenue will continue to grow at a low rate and show structural differentiation, with an increased reliance on debt funds. Tax structure imbalance remains prominent, non - tax revenue has weak sustainability, and government fund revenue is dragged down by land finance [25][26]. - Expenditure: Expenditure rigidity will increase, with key areas receiving more support. However, challenges such as low - efficiency capital use and debt - servicing pressure need to be addressed [27]. Revenue - Expenditure Growth Rate Forecast for 2026 - General Public Budget: Revenue may grow by about 0.5%, and expenditure may grow by about 2.6% [28][30]. - Government Fund Budget: Revenue decline may narrow to 5.9%, and expenditure may be roughly the same as in 2025, with a possibility of issuing additional government bonds during the year [34][35]. - Generalized Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure: Generalized fiscal revenue may decline by 0.84% year - on - year, and expenditure may grow by 1.55% year - on - year. The revenue - expenditure gap is expected to expand by over 800 billion yuan [37]. Core Demand Points for Fiscal Policy in 2026 - Boosting Micro - entity Confidence and Expanding Domestic Demand: Insufficient effective demand is the main contradiction. Fiscal policy should increase leverage, especially through the central government, and optimize the expenditure structure [40]. - Supporting Infrastructure Investment: In 2025, the expansion of generalized fiscal expenditure did not significantly improve investment. In 2026, fiscal expenditure should be expanded to create incremental demand and adjust the economic structure to support infrastructure investment [41]. - Fostering New - quality Productivity: China is in a critical period of new - old kinetic energy transformation. Fiscal policy should support the cultivation of new - quality productivity to make up for market failures and ensure key expenditures [46]. - Promoting Reform: Fiscal policy is essential for various reforms, such as income distribution, the construction of a unified national market, and the adjustment of central - local relations [47][48]. Fiscal Policy Outlook and Seven Key Measures in 2026 - Expand the Expenditure Scale and Act in Advance: The budget deficit rate is recommended to be 4% or above, with the central government taking the main responsibility. 5 trillion yuan of new special bonds and 1.8 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds should be issued. The generalized deficit may reach about 15 trillion yuan, an increase of over 1 trillion yuan from the previous year. The pace of fiscal expenditure and government bond issuance and use should be accelerated [53][55][56]. - Optimize the Expenditure Structure: Combine investment in physical assets and in people. Increase livelihood security expenditure, boost consumption, support infrastructure investment, and increase investment in new - quality productivity and the low - carbon economy. Special bonds should be optimized and their investment areas expanded [60]. - Strengthen Fiscal - Financial Coordination: Promote the coordinated implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. Use fiscal tools such as interest subsidies, rewards, and risk compensation, deepen the function of treasury bonds as a core link, and establish an evaluation and feedback mechanism. Explore financial cooperation models and tools to magnify the leverage effect of fiscal funds [62]. - Improve the Efficiency of Transfer Payments: Transfer payments may be arranged at over 10 trillion yuan. The structure of transfer payments should be optimized, the proportion of general transfer payments increased, and a direct - access mechanism for fiscal funds improved [63]. - Deepen Tax System Reform with Consumption Tax Reform: Speed up consumption tax reform, including the post - transfer of the collection link and the transfer to local governments. Cultivate local - specific main taxes and explore new taxes [64][65]. - Expand Zero - based Budget Reform Pilots: Expand zero - based budget reform pilots in an orderly manner, set phased and classified reform goals, and promote supporting system construction. At the same time, clarify the division of central - local fiscal powers and expenditure responsibilities [66]. - Establish a Government Asset - Liability Table: Establish and improve the government asset - liability table, promote debt risk resolution, and build a long - term debt management mechanism. Promote the transformation of government debt from leveraging up to optimizing leverage and address the root causes through deep - seated fiscal and tax system reforms [67][69].

Core Insights - The A-share indices mostly experienced fluctuations and declines during the week of March 16-20, 2026, with the exception of the ChiNext Index, which rose by 1.26% [2][10]. - The primary reason for the decline in A-share indices is the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, which has led to a continuous rise in international oil prices, with ICE Brent crude oil closing at $104.41 per barrel on March 20, 2026. This situation is expected to significantly elevate global inflation rates and negatively impact global GDP growth, thereby exerting inflationary pressure on China as well [2][13]. Industry Performance - Among the 31 first-level industries, the telecommunications and banking sectors saw the highest gains, increasing by 2.10% and 0.36%, respectively. Conversely, the non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals sectors faced the largest declines, dropping by 11.82% and 10.53% [3][18]. - In the second-level industries, the top performers were oil service engineering and wind power equipment, with cumulative increases of 39.64% and 25.01% since the beginning of 2026. The worst performers included agricultural chemicals and non-metallic materials II, which fell by 13.59% and 13.47%, respectively [3][21]. - In the third-level industries, communication network equipment and discrete devices led the weekly gains with increases of 7.38% and 5.17%. Year-to-date, oil and gas refining engineering and communication cables have shown the highest cumulative gains of 55.70% and 43.73% [4][23]. Macroeconomic Data - Fixed asset investment in China for the first two months of 2026 showed a cumulative growth rate of 1.80%, a significant improvement compared to the -3.80% recorded for the entire year of 2025. This growth was primarily driven by infrastructure construction, which increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while real estate investment continued to decline, albeit at a slower rate of -11.10% compared to -17.20% in 2025 [5][25]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods for the first two months of 2026 grew by 2.80% year-on-year, which is lower than the 3.70% growth for the entire year of 2025, indicating a continued downward trend since June 2025 [5][26]. - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged in March 2026, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year LPR at 3.50%, marking ten consecutive months of stability since a reduction in May 2025 [7][30]. Investment Recommendations - From a long-term perspective, 2026 is the starting year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," and China is expected to maintain an active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, which will provide significant support for stable domestic economic operations and a "slow bull" market for A-shares [8][31]. - In the short term, following the conclusion of the Two Sessions, the market has returned to a normal operating track. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is currently the main factor affecting the A-share market. A defensive strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend sectors related to long-term capital inflows [8][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive fiscal policy measures taken in early 2023, as reflected in the financial data released by the Ministry of Finance, indicating a focus on stabilizing the economy amid external risks [3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first two months of 2023, the national general public budget revenue reached 44,154 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3]. - National general public budget expenditure was 46,706 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, significantly higher than the expenditure growth rate of 1% for the entire previous year [3][4]. - The increase in expenditure outpaced revenue growth, reflecting a more aggressive fiscal policy aimed at economic stability [3]. Tax Revenue Breakdown - Tax revenue accounted for 36,393 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while non-tax revenue was 7,761 billion yuan, up 3.4% [4]. - The domestic value-added tax, the largest tax category, grew by 4.7%, driven by industrial and service sector growth [4]. - Significant growth was observed in import-related taxes due to a surge in foreign trade, with double-digit increases in import VAT, consumption tax, and tariffs [4]. Declines in Certain Tax Revenues - Major tax categories such as corporate income tax, domestic consumption tax, and personal income tax experienced declines, with domestic consumption tax down by 6.2% and corporate income tax down by 3.9% [5]. - The decline in personal income tax by 6.9% was attributed to the timing of the Chinese New Year affecting tax collection [5]. - Real estate-related taxes, including deed tax and land value-added tax, also saw significant declines due to a sluggish property market [5]. Sector Performance - Certain sectors, including equipment manufacturing and modern services, showed strong tax revenue performance, with notable increases in tax revenue from the computer and communication equipment manufacturing sector (9%) and scientific research and technical services (15.8%) [5][6]. Government Fund Revenue - Government fund budget revenue totaled 5,363 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16%, with local government fund revenue down by 19.2% [6]. - The decline in land transfer revenue was particularly pronounced, with a 25.2% drop compared to the previous year [6]. Fiscal Spending Focus - Despite lower overall fiscal revenue, government spending remained robust, with general public budget expenditure focusing on social security and employment (9,279 billion yuan, up 8.6%) and health care (4,119 billion yuan, up 17.3%) [6][7]. - The issuance of special bonds by local governments contributed to a 16% year-on-year increase in government fund budget expenditure, reflecting the proactive fiscal stance [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is "oscillating with a bullish bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The coking coal market showed an overall strong performance yesterday, and it closed higher in the night session. The lower support and the center of gravity are gradually moving up. After the Two Sessions, the steel mill's start - up rate may bottom out and rebound. The demand for coking coal and coke is at a phased low, and the expectation is gradually improving. On the other hand, the energy attribute of coking coal promotes the stabilization of the spot market price, and most of the auction transaction prices have increased. The high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal still has a certain suppressing effect on the futures market, so it is considered to be oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1176.0, down 0.42% compared with the previous day's closing of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1732.0, down 0.8% compared with the previous day's closing of the day session [1] Important Information - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei rejected the proposal of "easing tensions or achieving peace" with the United States at a foreign affairs meeting, and dismissed the proposal forwarded to the Iranian Foreign Ministry by an intermediary between the two countries. He also said that the United States and Israel must be defeated and pay compensation [1] - The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, it will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market; supporting the cultivation and growth of new driving forces; accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance; increasing efforts to ensure and improve people's livelihood; promoting new - type urbanization and regional coordinated development; accelerating the comprehensive green transformation; and strengthening fiscal scientific management [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission will identify about 100 iconic scenario projects with leading and driving roles across the country, including creating clean energy corridors with multi - provincial linkages, building full - space unmanned systems, and promoting the construction of elderly care service scenarios in areas with a relatively high degree of population aging [1] - The National Energy Administration released data showing that from January to February, the cumulative electricity consumption of the whole society was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, and the increase was 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] Market Logic - The coking coal showed an overall strong performance yesterday and closed higher in the night session. After the Two Sessions, the steel mill's start - up rate may bottom out and rebound. The demand for coking coal and coke is at a phased low, and the expectation is gradually improving. The energy attribute of coking coal promotes the stabilization of the spot market price, and most of the auction transaction prices have increased. The high - level customs clearance of Mongolian coal still has a certain suppressing effect on the futures market, so it is considered to be oscillating with a bullish bias in the short term [1] Trading Strategy - The main coking coal contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias between 1100 and 1230 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Oscillating operation" [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate upward due to rising costs, and the industry is expected to operate in an oscillating manner. Attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Environment - In 2026, the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance. The National Development and Reform Commission has launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly in the manufacturing industry. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects [2] Industry Data - On March 17, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,396 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton, and the average profit was a loss of 81 yuan/ton [2] Market Performance - The finished steel oscillated yesterday. In recent days, the daily K - line has shown small positive lines, and the price center has been continuously rising. The rise in raw materials provides cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise in the black market is also driven by inflation on commodities as a whole. Attention should be paid to downstream demand for steel [2]