1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No relevant content provided 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Cross-Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On January 16, 2026, the domestic spot price was 102,350, LME spot price 13,127 with a ratio of 7.87; domestic March price 102,810, LME March price 13,090 with a ratio of 7.88. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.91 with a loss of 1,800.78, and a profit of 209.21 for spot export [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 25,400, LME spot price 3,276 with a ratio of 7.75; domestic March price 25,090, LME March price 3,304 with a ratio of 5.33. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31 with a loss of 1,836.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 24,200, LME spot price 3,162 with a ratio of 7.65; domestic March price 24,375, LME March price 3,161 with a ratio of 7.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32 with a loss of 2,111.19 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 146,300, LME spot price 18,237 with a ratio of 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.00 with a loss of 492.25 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,400, LME spot price 2,039 with a ratio of 8.50; domestic March price 17,550, LME March price 2,083 with a ratio of 12.21. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.52 with a loss of 42.48 [3] 3.2 Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were - 890, - 640, - 510, - 400 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 619, 1137, 1663, 2189 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 645, 690, 745, 735 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 225, 356, 487, 618 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 165, - 110, - 70, - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 233, 368, 502, 637 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 160, 230, 275, 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, 534 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 were 4950, 5220, 5520, 5830 [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 8690 with a theoretical spread of 8666 [4] 3.3 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were 950 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 797 and 1231 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 1000 and - 355 respectively. Theoretical spreads were 256 and 375 [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 were - 80 and 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 176 and 292 [5] 3.4 Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 16, 2026, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.10, 4.22, 5.86, 0.97, 1.39, 0.70 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 3.95, 4.14, 6.24, 0.96, 1.51, 0.63 respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Adamera Minerals Corp. has successfully oversubscribed its non-brokered private placement financing, indicating strong investor interest and support for the company's projects [1][2]. Financing Details - The private placement will consist of up to 18,200,000 units priced at $0.055 per unit, with each unit comprising one common share and one common share purchase warrant [1]. - Each warrant is exercisable at a price of $0.12 for a period of three years, an extension from the previous two-year term [1]. - The financing aims to fund administrative and exploration costs associated with the company's projects [2]. Company Overview - Adamera Minerals Corp. focuses on exploring high-grade gold, silver, and copper deposits in Washington State and British Columbia, holding numerous drill-ready targets in areas with past producing mines [4].

Core Thesis - The bullish thesis on Vale S.A. is supported by a recent institutional purchase of call options, indicating a strong belief in the company's recovery over the next two years [2][3]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - Vale S.A.'s shares were trading at $14.11, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 10.94 and 7.17 respectively, suggesting a potentially undervalued position in the market [1]. - The low cost of options reflects extreme pessimism embedded in Vale's equity, creating a favorable risk-reward profile for investors [3]. Business Fundamentals - Vale is the world's largest iron ore producer, with its S11D project positioning it among the lowest-cost producers globally, ensuring profitability even in low pricing environments [4]. - The company has significant exposure to copper and nickel, which are critical for energy transition, and supply constraints in copper are expected to tighten by 2027, providing a catalyst for re-rating [4]. Political and Legal Risks - A portion of Vale's valuation discount is attributed to Brazil-specific political risks and unresolved legal liabilities from past dam failures, which could be alleviated by progress in settlements [5]. - Stabilization or appreciation of the Brazilian real could enhance returns for American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) [5]. Investment Strategy - The institutional buyer's choice of a 2027 expiration for the options allows for avoidance of short-term volatility and captures a full commodity cycle, positioning for a potential V-shaped recovery driven by global growth and future rate cuts [5].

Core Viewpoint - Masivo Silver Corp. is set to significantly ramp up operations at its Cerro Colorado Project in Sonora, Mexico, with preparations for a 1500 meters Phase I drill program underway [1][2]. Project Advancement Highlights and Ongoing Field Activities - The Phase I drill program aims to test priority targets identified through surface sampling, geological mapping, and historical data review, focusing on areas with strong potential for silver discovery [4]. - Current activities include rehabilitation of access routes, construction of drill pads, and site preparation necessary for drilling [2][11]. Historical Sampling Highlights and Geological Context - Historical records indicate high-grade silver and gold values from underground workings, with a notable sample from 1972 showing 2,200 g/t silver and 4.57 g/t gold [5]. - Another historical sample returned values of 1,840 g/t silver, 4.8 g/t gold, 3.06% copper, 4.5% lead, and 2.92% zinc [6]. - These historical samples, while selective, provide geological context and support the presence of a multi-metal mineralizing system [7]. Management Commentary - The President and CEO of Masivo Silver Corp. expressed excitement about launching the maiden drill program, emphasizing the geological potential based on historical sampling [8]. - The Senior Geologist highlighted the productive nature of the mineral system at Cerro Colorado, reinforcing confidence in the upcoming drill program [9]. Technical Oversight - The Phase I drill program will be supervised by experienced geologists, ensuring adherence to technical standards [12]. Stock Option Grant - The company has granted 2,550,000 stock options to directors, officers, and consultants, exercisable at $0.085 per share for five years [13]. Company Overview - Masivo Silver Corp. is a Canadian junior exploration company focused on gold, silver, copper, and base metal projects in Mexico and Nevada, with current projects including the Cerro Colorado Property and the Boston Mine Project [14].

Core Viewpoint - Critical Metals Corp is considering the construction of a refinery in partnership with a Saudi Arabian entity to process rare earths from its upcoming Tanbreez mine in Greenland, with the refined materials intended for supply [1] Group 1 - The planned refinery aims to enhance the processing capabilities of rare earths extracted from the Tanbreez mine [1] - The partnership with a Saudi Arabian company indicates a strategic move to leverage international collaboration for resource processing [1] - The refined rare earth materials are expected to meet growing demand in various industries [1]

Core Insights - AuMEGA Metals Ltd has identified the Isle aux Morts Granite (IMG) as a high-priority drill target for the 2026 field season following favorable results from a multi-element surficial geochemistry interpretation [2][3] - The IMG is a large, underexplored felsic intrusion adjacent to the company's existing resource corridor, which currently hosts a defined gold Mineral Resource of 6.2 million tonnes grading 2.25 g/t gold for 450,000 ounces of Indicated Resources, and 3.4 million tonnes grading 1.44 g/t gold for 160,000 ounces of Inferred Resources [3][34] - The reinterpretation of the IMG suggests it may represent a previously unrecognized and potentially fertile mineral system, changing the exploration potential of this area [4][22] Geochemical Findings - The surficial geochemistry program involved the collection of 439 till samples across a survey grid, revealing large, coherent gold-in-till anomalies that are spatially related to geophysical lineaments [10][11] - Strong multi-element geochemical coherence was observed, with gold anomalies coinciding with elevated copper, molybdenum, and bismuth, indicating a potentially fertile gold and/or copper system [6][21] - The till material collected is homogeneous and suggests a proximal bedrock source for the geochemical responses, supporting the interpretation of structural control over mineralization [12][22] Target Areas and Future Plans - Seven target areas have been defined across the Cape Ray West area, with the Western Corridor identified as a significant target due to its geological setting and strong gold-in-till anomalism [15][16][29] - The company plans to extend surficial geochemistry coverage and geological mapping across the IMG, along with a focused diamond drilling program in summer 2026 to test high-conviction targets [29][34] - Assays from ongoing drilling and geochemical surveys are expected in the first quarter of 2026, which will further inform the exploration strategy [6][29]

Core Viewpoint - Ivanhoe Mines has reported strong production results for 2025 from its Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex and Kipushi zinc mine, achieving or exceeding production guidance for both copper and zinc, with significant operational advancements expected in 2026. Group 1: Kamoa-Kakula Copper Production - Kamoa-Kakula produced 388,838 tonnes of copper in concentrate in 2025, achieving guidance, with production supported by record output from the Phase 3 concentrator [1][2] - The Phase 3 concentrator milled 6.4 million tonnes of ore in 2025, approximately 30% above its design capacity, achieving a record throughput and recovery rate [6] - The smelter has begun producing 99.7%-pure copper anodes, averaging 500 tonnes per day, with first exports expected imminently [8][9] Group 2: Kipushi Zinc Production - Kipushi produced a record 203,168 tonnes of zinc in concentrate in 2025, achieving guidance, including a quarterly record of 61,444 tonnes in Q4 2025 [25][29] - The improvement in zinc production was attributed to the completion of a debottlenecking program and enhanced power availability [25][28] - The 2026 production guidance for Kipushi is set at 240,000 to 290,000 tonnes of zinc [34] Group 3: Financial and Operational Outlook - Ivanhoe Mines will release its 2025 financial results on February 18, 2026, and host a conference call for investors on February 19 [40][41] - The company expects 2026 copper sales to be approximately 20,000 tonnes higher than production due to destocking of on-site inventory [10][11] - Kamoa-Kakula's margins are anticipated to expand as logistics costs decrease and revenues from high-strength sulphuric acid sales contribute positively [15][17]

Base metals have seen a strong start to the new year, though they have not reached the record highs set by precious metals. Copper and aluminum continue their rallies from last year, while the price ... ...

Industry Overview - The basic materials sector includes companies involved in discovering, developing, and processing raw materials essential for other industries, closely tied to economic cycles [1] - It comprises five industries: metals and mining, chemicals, construction materials, paper and forest products, and containers and packaging [1] Recent Performance - The sector has shown mixed performance over the past year, with the S&P 500 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) advancing 15.3% as of January 13 [2] - Metals and mining sectors performed well, while construction materials and chemicals lagged due to slower global growth and inflation concerns [2] - The cyclical nature of the sector makes it sensitive to global economic conditions, interest rates, and the effectiveness of China's stimulus [2] Future Outlook - The outlook for 2026 appears promising, with expected strong earnings growth for materials companies driven by pricing power from tariffs on steel and robust packaging demand [3] - Demand drivers such as electrification, infrastructure spending, and rising consumption of industrial commodities like lithium, copper, and rare earths are expected to support growth [3] Investment Opportunities - Materials funds can act as portfolio diversifiers and inflation hedges, as raw material prices often rise with inflation [4] - Well-managed materials mutual funds may capture growth while balancing risk across multiple industries within the sector [4][5] Selected Mutual Funds - **Fidelity Select Materials (FSDPX)**: Invests in companies involved in raw materials production, with a 3-year annualized return of 2.3% and a 5-year return of 7.2%, net expense ratio of 0.69%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 [7][8] - **Franklin Gold and Precious Metals (FKRCX)**: Focuses on gold and precious metals operations, with a 3-year annualized return of 48.4% and a 5-year return of 21.1%, net expense ratio of 0.87%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 2 [9][10] - **American Century Global Gold (ACGGX)**: Invests in gold-related companies, with a 3-year annualized return of 44.8% and a 5-year return of 20.1%, net expense ratio of 0.91%, and a Zacks Mutual Fund Rank of 1 [12]

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 14 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面窄幅调整，截止日盘螺纹 2605 合约收盘价格为 3158 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 窄幅震荡 | | | 下跌 7 元/吨，跌幅为 0.22%，持仓减少 3.88 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | | | | 价格持平于 2970 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3250 元/吨，全国建材成交量 8.36 万吨。近期大宗 | | | | 商品市场涨价情绪较为浓厚，对低估值的螺纹走势形成较强提振，钢厂接单情况整体较好，部分钢厂冬储 | | | | 资源已提前锁定。不过近期钢厂盈利回升较为明显，螺纹产量连续回升，需求端随着气温下降逐步走弱， | | | | 上周螺纹库存已经由降转增，供需边际有所走弱。目前螺纹处于有估值，但缺少驱动局面，预计短期盘面 | | | | 价格仍以窄幅震荡运行为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2605 价格冲高回落，收于 819.5 元/吨，较前一 ...