Report Title - South China Glass and Soda Ash Data Weekly Report 20250426 [2] Core Views - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure due to weak demand and high mid - upstream inventory. The price may continue to be under pressure, and short - term fluctuations may increase. Variables such as ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement need to be tracked [3][4]. - For soda ash, although there will be more maintenance in May, the overall supply - demand pattern remains in a long - term surplus. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. Demand has a slight improvement, but there is a risk of the photovoltaic industry returning to an over - supply situation [5][6]. Glass Analysis Supply - At the end of April, the daily melting volume of glass may slightly decline to 156,000 tons. Three production lines are planned to shut down at the end of April, and one new line was ignited in April [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 65.4733 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 heavy boxes (+0.61%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.25%. The inventory days are 29.4 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period. The inventory structure shows that upstream factory warehouses are accumulating inventory while mid - stream is reducing inventory [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are: - 153 yuan for natural gas, + 145 yuan for coal - made gas, and - 38 yuan for petroleum coke. The increase in the price of imported petroleum coke in Hubei has pushed up costs by 80 - 100 yuan [3]. Demand - As of April 15, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a week - on - week decrease of 13.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory of raw glass is 11.4 days, a week - on - week increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8% [3]. Strategy - Due to weak demand and high inventory, the glass price has dropped significantly. Future price trends depend on ignition delays, new cold repairs, and demand improvement. Short - term price fluctuations may increase [4]. Soda Ash Analysis Supply - The weekly production is 755,600 tons (a week - on - week increase of 17,800 tons), including 339,100 tons of light soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 5,300 tons) and 416,500 tons of heavy soda ash (a week - on - week increase of 12,500 tons). Maintenance is expected to increase in May [5]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.691 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20,300 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 338,500 tons (a decrease of 44,700 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.0295 million tons, with a total de - stocking of 180,000 - 190,000 tons from March to April [5]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of double - ton soda ash by the combined soda process is + 255.5 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process is 17.5 yuan/ton. Profits have improved week - on - week due to the decline in raw material prices [5]. Demand - The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is increasing, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash inferred from float and photovoltaic glass has improved. However, the photovoltaic industry may return to an over - supply situation after the end of the rush - installation period [6]. Strategy - From May, maintenance is expected to increase, and supply disturbances will also increase. The market may first trade on expectations and then on the difference between expectations. The overall supply - demand pattern remains in long - term surplus, and price fluctuations may increase [6].

Investment Rating - The report provides a short-term investment focus on specific companies across various sectors, highlighting preferred and risk names based on tariff impacts [7][30]. Core Insights - The report analyzes the implications of the Trump administration's tariffs on nine major sectors, emphasizing the direct and indirect impacts on individual companies and their stock performance [6][30]. - The automotive sector is expected to face significant price increases due to tariffs, with an estimated 11.5% rise in US auto prices, translating to approximately $5,100 per vehicle [9][17]. - The report identifies key companies within each sector that are likely to be affected by tariffs, providing a detailed analysis of their potential performance [4][30]. Sector Summaries Autos and Auto Parts - Tariffs on automobiles could lead to a gross impact on operating profit ranging from 30% to over 100% for various automakers, with Toyota and Honda facing a manageable impact while Nissan and Mazda are at higher risk [4][9]. - Focus is placed on Toyota Motor for its resilience and ability to raise prices, while Bridgestone is noted for its high local production ratio [30][31]. Banks - The impact of tariffs on banks remains uncertain, but concerns over worst-case scenarios have eased, with a potential downside risk of slightly over 10% to sector earnings forecasts in a bearish scenario [4][33]. - Japan Post Bank is highlighted as a relatively stable option amidst tariff uncertainties [4][33]. Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - Major pharmaceutical companies like Takeda and Astellas are expected to be heavily impacted by tariffs, while companies with lower US sales ratios may benefit from tariff avoidance [4][30]. - The report emphasizes the potential for increased costs of goods sold (CoGS) affecting operating profits for medical device companies [4]. Technology - The technology sector's tariff impact is complex, with companies like NEC and Fujitsu expected to perform well due to limited exposure to tariffs [5][30]. - Sony Group is under close observation for potential price hikes on its products, particularly the PlayStation 5 [5][30]. Chemicals and Steel - In the chemicals sector, companies like Nippon Paint are expected to benefit from lower raw material prices, while the steel sector is anticipated to experience limited direct tariff impacts [5][30]. - Kobe Steel is noted for its resilience due to a significant earnings contribution from its machinery business [5][30]. Retail - The retail sector is advised to focus on drugstores and discount retailers, with companies like Asics and Fast Retailing facing risks from declining sales due to high tariff exposure [5][30]. - Seven & i Holdings is highlighted as particularly vulnerable due to its significant exposure to the US market [5][30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a conservative investment strategy focused on defensive stocks and sectors due to the anticipated double dip in Japanese stocks [1][4][35] Core Viewpoints - Japanese stocks are likely to experience a double dip in the short term, with potential for the next correction to fall below the recent bottom of TOPIX at 2,200 [2][3][19] - The report identifies three main risks contributing to this outlook: deterioration in US macroeconomic indicators, uncertainty in Japan-US tariff negotiations, and conservative initial guidance from companies during the FY3/25 earnings season [2][9][27] - A recovery in Japanese stocks may not occur until summer or later, contingent on specific conditions such as progress in tariff negotiations and aggressive monetary easing by central banks [27] Summary by Sections Short-term Risks - Japanese stocks currently lack upside momentum after a recent rebound to 2,500 from 2,200 [2][6] - The report highlights risks from US economic indicators, tariff negotiations, and conservative earnings guidance as key factors for the anticipated double dip [2][9][19] Market Correction Insights - The potential downside target for TOPIX is projected at 2,000, with a 12-month forward PER around 10x, aligning with historical downturn levels [3][19] - The report indicates that previous corrections of more than 10% have often led to double dips, particularly when rebounds do not exceed 50% of the initial correction [25][26] Defensive Investment Strategy - A focus on low-risk stocks, high EPS revisions, and strong balance sheets is recommended, as high-rated stocks are expected to underperform [4][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies likely to issue positive guidance and maintain dividends during the uncertain macroeconomic environment [35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Wanhua Chemical is Underweight [2][8][76] Core Views - The report indicates that Wanhua Chemical is facing multiple geopolitical headwinds, including US export tariffs on MDI, China's import tariffs on ethane, and an anti-dumping investigation by the US, which are expected to negatively impact volume, price, and earnings [8][12][13] - The price target for Wanhua Chemical has been reduced to Rmb51.00, reflecting a 5% decrease based on updated financial data and a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8][12] Summary by Sections Price Target and Earnings Estimates - The price target for Wanhua Chemical is set at Rmb51.00, down from Rmb54.00, based on a target multiple of 15x 2025e P/E [5][8] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is revised to Rmb3.42, down from Rmb3.61 [2][8] Financial Performance and Projections - The report projects a decline in net profit by 5% for 2025 and 6% for 2026, leading to a downward revision of earnings estimates [5][8] - MDI prices are expected to be Rmb12,305 per ton in 2025, with unit gross profit projected at Rmb2,892 per ton [16] Market Conditions and Risks - The geopolitical risks are anticipated to exert downward pressure on MDI prices and spreads, affecting overall earnings visibility for non-MDI products [8][12][13] - The report highlights that the valuation is no longer appealing, contributing to the Underweight rating [8][12]

Core Viewpoint - Fermium Research analyst Frank J. Mitsch upgraded Dow Inc. from Hold to Buy with a price forecast of $35 based on better-than-expected financial results and strategic decisions [1] Financial Performance - Dow reported first-quarter 2025 sales of $10.431 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $10.24 billion, and adjusted EPS of $0.02, surpassing the consensus estimate of a $0.01 loss [1] - The analyst lowered 2025 EPS estimates from $1.61 to $0.29 (consensus $1.40) and EBITDA estimates from $5.20 billion to $4.05 billion (consensus $4.82 billion) due to ongoing weak macroeconomic conditions [4] Strategic Decisions - Dow's decision to postpone the Ft. Saskatchewan Path2Zero project is viewed positively, expected to yield an additional $600 million in capex savings in 2025 [2] - The anticipated negative free cash flow of up to $1 billion in the first half of 2025 is a concern, but the analyst believes that working capital inflows, reduced maintenance spending, and increased EBITDA from new projects will drive a reversal in the second half [3][4] Market Reaction - Dow's shares increased by 0.37% to $29.87 as of the last check on Friday [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for the renew segment from $75 to $100 million to a new range of $50 to $75 million due to economic uncertainties and trade tensions impacting consumer durable markets [11][12][27] - The EBITDA contribution from manufacturing cost savings is on track to achieve the targeted $50 million for the year, with $25 million already realized in the first quarter [10][27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fibers business is experiencing destocking challenges, with first-quarter volume down 12%, but contract rates remain stable at around 90% [19][130] - The advanced materials segment is expected to face varying impacts from tariffs, with some products having local manufacturing capabilities mitigating risks [42][140] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The consumer durable market is under pressure due to tariff-related uncertainties, affecting product launches and overall market engagement [11][12][13] - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from tariffs as they provide relief from low-priced imports, allowing for potential market share recovery [142] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on optimizing capital expenditures, reducing from $750 million to $550 million, to prepare for potential economic downturns while still investing in maintenance and growth [89][90] - Strategic initiatives are being pursued to enhance local manufacturing capabilities and reduce reliance on imports, particularly in the performance films and specialty plastics segments [39][140] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining cash flow generation despite uncertainties in earnings due to trade disputes and economic conditions [107][109] - The company is preparing for multiple scenarios regarding trade resolutions, indicating a cautious but proactive approach to managing inventory and customer relationships [72][82] Other Important Information - The company has received funding from the Department of Energy (DOE) and maintains a positive relationship with them, indicating confidence in ongoing support for projects related to US manufacturing and recycling infrastructure [51][56] - The impact of tariffs is primarily seen as a volume hit rather than a direct cost increase, with customers holding back orders due to uncertainty [118][120] Q&A Session Summary Question: What has been the sales and EBITDA contribution in the first quarter? - Management indicated that operational performance at the Kingsport facility has been strong, with an 85% yield on DMT feedstock and significant earnings generated in the corporate area [8][9] Question: How long do you anticipate destocking to persist in the fibers business? - Management noted that destocking is driven by customer behavior rather than market growth rates, and while it may continue, the fundamentals remain stable [18][25] Question: How much risk is there regarding China sales if tariffs remain? - Management highlighted that while there is some risk, many segments have limited exposure to China, and they are exploring ways to mitigate impacts through local production [36][38] Question: Why is cash flow more forecastable than earnings? - Management explained that cash flow generation is based on a broader set of operational solutions and working capital management, providing more certainty compared to earnings estimates [106][108] Question: What is the estimated tariff impact for the second quarter? - The estimated impact is around $30 million, primarily due to reduced sales volumes as customers hold back orders in anticipation of trade resolutions [112][118]

Core Insights - Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.57 per share, a 12.9% increase from $1.39 in the same quarter last year, with adjusted earnings of $1.91 per share, up 18.6% from $1.61, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.89 [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenues for the first quarter were $2,290 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,308.6 million, and reflecting a 1% decrease from $2,310 million in the prior-year quarter [2] - Cash used in operating activities totaled $167 million, and dividends paid to stockholders were $96 million [7] Segment Performance - **Advanced Materials**: Revenues fell 3.9% year over year to $719 million, missing the estimate of $763.7 million due to reduced selling prices and unfavorable sales volume mix [3] - **Additives & Functional Products**: Revenues increased 4.1% year over year to $733 million, exceeding the estimate of $703.3 million, driven by higher selling prices and improved sales volume mix [4] - **Chemical Intermediates**: Net sales rose 4.2% year over year to $545 million, beating the estimate of $533.5 million, attributed to increased selling prices and a stronger sales volume mix [5] - **Fibers**: Net sales declined 12.9% year over year to $288 million, missing the estimate of $325 million, primarily due to a less favorable sales volume mix and reduced selling prices [6] Guidance and Outlook - The company raised its cost reduction goal to approximately $75 million and lowered capital expenditures to about $550 million, indicating a strong position to manage challenges from increasing tariffs [8] - EMN anticipates generating around $1.2 billion in operating cash flow for full-year 2025, with adjusted EPS guidance for the second quarter projected between $1.70 and $1.90 [9][11] Market Performance - EMN's shares have decreased by 15.9% over the past year, compared to a 25.7% decline in its industry [12]

Core Insights - Dow reported a GAAP net loss of $290 million for Q1 2025, a significant decline from a profit of $538 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower prices and higher energy costs [7][39][42] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and capacity right-sizing while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions [3][27] - Dow's total enterprise capital expenditures (CapEx) for 2025 are now expected to be $2.5 billion, down from the original plan of $3.5 billion, following the delay of the Path2Zero project [4][27] Financial Performance - Net sales for Q1 2025 were $10.4 billion, a decrease of 3% year-over-year, with declines across all operating segments [7][44] - Operating EBIT for the quarter was $230 million, down $444 million from the previous year, primarily due to lower prices and increased energy and feedstock costs [7][39] - Cash provided by operating activities was $104 million, down $356 million year-over-year, reflecting earnings pressure from soft global demand [7][42] Segment Highlights - The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment reported net sales of $5.3 billion, down 2% year-over-year, with local prices decreasing by 4% [9][12] - The Industrial Intermediates & Infrastructure segment saw net sales of $2.9 billion, a 5% decline compared to the previous year, driven by lower prices and higher energy costs [16][19] - The Performance Materials & Coatings segment had net sales of $2.1 billion, down 4% year-over-year, with a slight increase in operating EBIT due to lower fixed costs [21][22] Strategic Actions - Dow is expanding its European asset review to address challenging demand dynamics and regulatory environments, with a commitment to complete the review by mid-2025 [6][27] - The company plans to deliver approximately $6 billion in near-term cash support through various strategic actions, including the sale of a minority stake in U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets [27][28] - Dow remains committed to its Path2Zero project, which aims to be the world's first net-zero emissions integrated ethylene cracker and derivatives facility, despite the delay in construction [5][27]

Declares quarterly dividend of 70 cents per share Richard K. Davis re-elected independent lead directorMIDLAND, Mich., April 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Dow (NYSE: DOW) is pleased to report the results of its 2025 Annual Meeting of Stockholders.Today stockholders elected Samuel R. Allen, Gaurdie E. Banister Jr., Wesley G. Bush, Richard K. Davis, Jerri DeVard, Debra L. Dial, Jeff M. Fettig, Jim Fitterling, Jacqueline C. Hinman, Rebecca B. Liebert, Luis Alberto Moreno, Jill S. Wyant, and Daniel W. Yohannes to t ...

Fiscal 2025 Third-Quarter Results April 8, 2025 Forward-Looking Statements & Regulation G This presentation contains "forward-looking statements" relating to our business. These forward-looking statements, or other statements made by us, are made based on our expectations and beliefs concerning future events impacting us and are subject to uncertainties and factors (including those specified below), which are difficult to predict and, in many instances, are beyond our control. As a result, our actual result ...