Oil traders expect OPEC+ will agree a fourth bumper oil supply increase this weekend as group leader Saudi Arabia continues its bid to reclaim market share https://t.co/ubxg2qoSBh ...

Industry Trend - The oil industry faces a paradox where calls for increased drilling contrast with the emptying of oil offices in Houston [1] Political Context - Trump advocates for increased oil production with the slogan "drill, baby, drill" [1]

Summary of the Conference Call on Global Shipping & Oil Industry Overview - The call focuses on the **global shipping and oil industry**, particularly the implications of recent **Middle East tensions** on oil markets and global supply chains [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Risk**: The recent flare-up in the **Strait of Hormuz** led to increased energy volatility and discussions around tanker operations. However, the geopolitical risk premium has partially unwound following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran [2][3]. - **Long-term Risks**: Despite the current calm, underlying risks in the Middle East remain, including strategic implications for Israel and uncertainties in the Red Sea, which could affect global trade routes [3]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Investors are questioning whether the recent tensions are truly resolved or if they represent a new normal, indicating a need for careful positioning in the market [3]. - **Shipping Companies Analysis**: The call will analyze how elevated risks around key maritime routes are impacting routing, insurance costs, and overall sentiment towards major shipping companies such as **China Cosco, Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk, K-Line, MOL, NYK, OOIL, and ZIM** [3]. - **Energy Sector Impact**: Discussion will also cover how the risk reset affects global oil majors and companies heavily leveraged in the energy sector, focusing on supply shock risks and demand-side resilience [3]. Additional Important Points - **Market Framework**: The session will outline the current oil market framework and assess how much geopolitical risk is already priced in, which is crucial for understanding tanker rates and rerouting risks [2][3]. - **Volatility in Spot Rates**: Spot rates are experiencing volatility, driven by geopolitical headlines, necessitating a discussion on which companies are better positioned based on fleet, regional mix, or contract structure [3]. - **Investment Flows**: The dynamic between supply shock risks and demand resilience may shift expectations for refining margins, fuel costs, and investment flows into energy infrastructure [3]. Conclusion - The call aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the complex macro shocks affecting the shipping and energy sectors, helping clients navigate potential investment opportunities and risks in the current landscape [3].

America should have invaded Iran to gain respect and get rich on oil, Donald Trump said in an interview in 1980. Decades later, such blithe counter-factuals would become a familiar hallmark of his politics https://t.co/FT8gTzGk9C ...

plans. com now. >> All right welcome back everybody.Joining us right now for an exclusive interview to discuss all things energy and oil is Darren Woods. He's ExxonMobil's chairman and CEO. And Darren I want to thank you for being with us this morning.Good to see you. It's good to see you, too. We've been watching so closely what's been happening with oil prices. And we've seen a real rapid rise and then drop off again after what's been happening in the Middle East.Crude oil back at $65 a barrel. But it got ...

Company Insights - Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) reported first-quarter total revenues and other income of $31.85 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $29.58 billion [1] - The adjusted EPS loss for Marathon Petroleum was $(0.24), an improvement from $(2.58) a year earlier, and better than the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.53) [1] - Aurora Innovation posted a first-quarter GAAP loss of 12 cents per share, which was in line with estimates [2] - QXO, Inc. proposed to acquire GMS for $95.20 per share in cash [2] - Toast (TOST) received a Buy rating from Truist Securities analyst Matthew Coad, with a price target of $48 [3] Stock Performance - Marathon Petroleum shares increased by 1.1% to settle at $167.52 [6] - Aurora Innovation shares rose by 2.1% to close at $5.40 [6] - QXO shares gained 1.4% to settle at $24.12 [6] - Toast shares experienced a 2.4% increase, closing at $42.49 [6]

Yesterday you said China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. Are you giving up on your maximum pressure campaign because the sanctions right now with you on Iran. No, look, they just had a war.The war was fought. They fought it bravely. I'm not giving up.They they're in the oil business. I mean, I could stop it if I wanted it. Sell China the oil myself.I don't want to do that. They're going to need money to put that country back into shape. We want to see that happen.Would it. No. If they're going t ...

Oil Price & Market Dynamics - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with WTI showing a slight upside in early Asian trading sessions following a double-digit percentage slump over the past two days [1][3] - US crude stockpiles showed another drop, contributing to a roughly 5% decline in New York-traded crude prices over two days [4] - President Trump signaled a desire to maintain Iranian oil flow, a shift from previous strategies of restricting Iranian energy exports [2] Geopolitical Factors & Risk - A fragile ceasefire brokered by President Trump between Israel and Iran reduces the risk premium on oil supplies, but the situation remains unstable [4][5][7] - The US essentially gave China, Iran's largest crude customer, the go-ahead to continue purchasing Iranian oil, potentially as an olive branch amid trade uncertainties [5] - China's approach to importing Iranian oil remains uncertain given potential sanctions [6] Iran's Situation & Strategy - Iran's proxy network, including Hezbollah, has been significantly weakened but retains some capacity to cause damage, with estimates suggesting Hezbollah still possesses approximately 20% of its missile capacity [10][11] - Iran's primary focus is regime survival, potentially opening a window for nuclear diplomacy and negotiation [13][14] - The Iranian regime is interested in maintaining its proxy network, no matter how weak, and will review its military deterrence strategy [12] Potential for Future Conflict - Israel, particularly the Prime Minister, remains concerned about Iran's ability to reconstitute its nuclear fuel capacity, potentially hindering long-term peace [8] - The question remains whether Israel will halt military action against Iran, and whether the US President will pressure the Israeli Prime Minister to do so [15][16]

US Oil Production & Geopolitical Impact - US oil production has nearly tripled in the last 15 years, driven by the fracking boom, with about two-thirds of US crude oil production attributed to fracking [3][4] - Increased US oil production has shifted the country from reliance on Middle East oil imports to a major exporter, providing geopolitical leverage [1] - Analysts suggest the US economy is more insulated from oil price shocks, potentially giving the President more leverage, although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Pal noted limits to this buffer [5] Oil Price Dynamics & Market Reaction - Oil prices initially spiked due to concerns about supply risks in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, but subsequently declined as ceasefire headlines reduced those concerns [12][13] - WTI crude oil prices experienced a drop of more than 5%, falling back to $64.95 [12] - The market recalibrated its assessment of supply risks, leading to the unwinding of upside tail hedging positions [13][14] - The fundamental picture in crude oil appears fragile and potentially oversupplied in the second half of 2025 [14] Energy Stocks & Investment Considerations - Energy stocks, as tracked by the XLE ETF, have shown flat performance year-to-date, despite outperforming underlying oil prices [9] - Oil companies face a tricky situation, balancing the desire to drill more with concerns about over-drilling and potential profit cuts if oil prices decline [10] - CIBC Private Wealth manages $100 billion in assets [12] US Production Outlook - Meaningful pickup in US oil production is unlikely unless crude prices are significantly higher than the current strip price of around $65 [19][20] - US producers are unlikely to increase capital expenditure (capex) and crude production at current price levels, considering OPEC+ is bringing more barrels into the market and recent price volatility [20][21] - Rig counts have been falling precipitously over the past three months, indicating a cautious approach by US producers who prioritize shoring up their balance sheets [23]

Geopolitical Landscape & Energy Market Impact - US oil production has significantly altered the global energy equation [3] - Middle East countries, including Saudi Arabia, are diversifying their economies away from oil [4] - Iran's influence in the region has been diminished, with its proxies being weakened [5] - A shift is occurring where regional players are prioritizing economic prosperity through oil trade over ideological conflicts [7][9] Iranian Oil Sanctions & Trade - The US president has eased some sanctions on Iranian oil exports to China [7] - Increased Iranian oil exports to China could de-risk the Strait of Hormuz [8] - Trade talks and potential tariffs between the EU and other nations are bearish for oil prices due to potential economic drag [8][9] Transformation in the Middle East - The Middle East is undergoing a transformation, moving away from constant conflict [10] - The regional dynamics have changed significantly, with Israel being the strongest country [10]