August 24, 2025 07:26 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Growth Cool, Policy Drip, Market Buoyant Related Reports: Growth Cool, Policy Drip, Market Buoyant (21 August 2025) Is the HIBOR Spike a Headwind? (20 August 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this rep ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Chinese economy, particularly the outlook for exports and domestic demand in 2025, as discussed by local clients in Beijing and Shanghai, including mutual funds, private equity firms, and asset managers from banks and insurers [1][2]. Core Insights 1. **Export Outlook for H2 2025** - Onshore clients have become more optimistic about H2 2025 exports, citing resilient shipping data and stronger-than-expected global growth outside of China. However, there is caution regarding long-term prospects due to US tariffs impacting demand [2][3]. 2. **Growth Target and Policy Easing** - Clients believe that resilient exports will support the 5% growth target for 2025. However, they anticipate limited incremental easing from policymakers, reflecting a conservative and reactive approach to economic management [3][8]. 3. **Concerns Over Domestic Demand** - Weak July activity data and sluggish loan demand have raised concerns about domestic demand. Adverse weather conditions could negatively impact Q3 investment, and consumption may slow due to renewed weakness in the property sector [3][8]. 4. **Expectations for Fiscal Policies** - Clients expect faster execution of existing fiscal policies, including reported RMB 500 billion in policy financing instruments and targeted support for key areas. Any significant weakness in economic indicators could prompt broader easing measures [3][8]. 5. **PPI and Inflation Outlook** - Clients are cautious about inflation, expecting gradual sector-specific capacity cuts to limit macroeconomic impacts. They anticipate PPI deflation to narrow in the coming months, influenced by base effects, but the demand outlook remains critical for PPI reflation [9]. 6. **Capital Flows and Market Implications** - With a recent equity rally, clients are focusing on capital flows, noting that maturing time deposits could shift into equities. They expect CGB yields to rise further but stabilize at levels around 2.2-2.3% for 30-year CGBs, with liquidity support from regulators to prevent abrupt market movements [10]. 7. **CNY and FX Expectations** - Clients see potential for CNY appreciation but expect USDCNY to remain range-bound without new catalysts, such as USD weakness following Fed rate cuts [10]. Additional Important Insights - The ongoing US-China trade tensions, particularly regarding semiconductors, are being closely monitored by clients, as they could impact the export outlook and overall economic sentiment [2][3]. - The anticipation of a relatively high growth target for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) suggests a long-term commitment to economic growth, potentially setting targets between 4.5% and 5% [8]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, providing insights into the current economic landscape and expectations for the future.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the macroeconomic outlook for Asia, particularly in relation to exports and capital expenditure trends in the region, as presented by Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist, Chetan Ahya [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Export Trends**: Asia has experienced two distinct rounds of export front-loading to the US, with nominal goods exports showing signs of consolidation from earlier strength [4][5]. - **Impact of AI and Tariffs**: Asia's tech exports are benefiting from a sustained rise in global AI spending and tariff exemptions, although a slowdown in other areas of global demand is expected to weigh on overall exports [7]. - **Tariff Burden**: Asian exporters are currently not bearing the bulk of the tariff burden, as evidenced by aggregate US import prices from Asia. However, ASEAN exporters have seen sharper price increases compared to their Chinese counterparts, who have offered modest discounts [10]. - **Foreign Exchange Burden**: While Asian exporters are not heavily impacted by tariffs, they are facing some foreign exchange (FX) burdens, as they have not been able to fully offset local currency price drags with USD export price increases [14][16]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: There is no clear evidence of a pickup in Asia's foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the US post "Liberation Day," and capital expenditure momentum in Asia has plateaued [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Economic Strategy**: To meet growth targets and address demand shortfalls, China has increased investment in manufacturing and infrastructure, but broad-based reflation will require a recovery in demand [22]. - **India's Economic Discrepancy**: There is a persistent gap between lower corporate revenue growth and higher nominal GDP growth in India, which has lasted for nine consecutive quarters [24]. - **Japan's Monetary Policy**: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to maintain a dovish stance due to subdued demand-side inflationary pressures, with domestic demand recovery still in its early stages [28]. Data Highlights - **US Real Capex**: The data shows fluctuations in US real capital expenditure, with private non-residential IT capex experiencing a decline of 1.0% year-over-year as of June 2025 [8]. - **Export Price Changes**: The Asia dollar index appreciated by 4.2%, while the Asia USD export price saw a change of 1.8% from February 2025 to June 2025 [17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Asian economy, particularly in relation to exports and capital expenditure trends.

The only way to get out of this situation with the debt and the deficit is to reflate your way out and to debase your way out. And I think it's good for gold. It would be at much higher levels and send it off. And at the same point, it would be massively bullish for Bitcoin as well. Last thing I want to talk to you about is uh there's a rumor that the government's going to take a stake in Intel. Um there's a lot here. Um what's going on guys? Today we got a great episode with Jordy Visser. In this conversat ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China market**, with a narrative that remains constructive due to liquidity, anti-involution measures, and a measured consumer policy. However, sustainable reflation is viewed as challenging [1][5]. Core Insights - **Rebalancing Efforts**: The government is making small but positive steps towards rebalancing the economy, including interest subsidies for consumer loans totaling approximately **Rmb50 billion** and additional support for fertility and preschool education amounting to around **Rmb130 billion** [5][9]. - **Policy Implementation**: Recent policy moves have been expedited, reaffirming the commitment to maintain policy momentum and support as needed. This includes a mix of social welfare and traditional infrastructure policies [6][7]. - **Consumer Loan Subsidies**: The Ministry of Finance has introduced a **1% interest subsidy** for personal consumption loans and operating loans for consumption service corporates, effective from September 2025 to August 2026 [8][9]. - **Impact on Consumer Spending**: The subsidy program aims to stimulate consumer spending without significantly compressing banks' net interest margins, with potential eligible loans reaching **Rmb12 trillion** annually [10][11][13]. Economic Outlook - **Corporate Margins**: Downstream sectors are expected to face margin pressures due to rising upstream prices, with a lagged response in profitability. The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight rebound, indicating potential future improvements [14][16][18]. - **Social Security Participation**: The government is tightening social security participation rules, which could increase the financial burden on small businesses by **Rmb1.3-1.6 trillion** annually if strictly enforced [23][24]. - **Market Risks**: Potential disruptions to positive market narratives could arise from a sharp growth slowdown or escalated trade tensions, although these are not anticipated in the near term [28][30]. Additional Considerations - **Inflation and Credit Data**: Economic data is expected to remain resilient in the near term, with inflation and credit data supported by a low base, despite anticipated growth slowing in the second half of the year [29][31]. - **US-China Trade Relations**: Current trade relations are stabilized by framework agreements, with escalation risks likely contained due to China's strategic position in rare earth supply chains [30]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and outlook of the China market, along with the implications of recent policy measures.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly its inflation dynamics and the impact of anti-involution measures on economic conditions [1][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **CPI and PPI Trends**: - July's **CPI** showed flat growth at **0%** year-on-year (YoY), down from **0.1%** in June, with food prices dropping **1.6%** YoY [1][4]. - **PPI** experienced a decline of **0.2%** month-on-month (MoM), maintaining an elevated YoY rate of **3.6%** [2][4]. - Consumer goods PPI fell **1.6%** YoY, while producer goods PPI dropped **4.3%** [2]. - **Contributing Factors**: - The decline in CPI was offset by increases in household facilities/services (+0.4% MoM), transportation and communication (+0.2%), and education and entertainment (+0.1%) [1][4]. - Seasonal factors, such as summer tourism and trade-in policy support, contributed to these increases [1][4]. - **Inflation Expectations**: - CPI inflation is expected to hover around **0%** in the coming months, with gradual narrowing of PPI deflation anticipated [4][6]. - **Anti-involution Measures**: - The government's anti-involution measures have led to a marginal narrowing in PPI deflation in affected sectors like coal and steel, but overall impact remains modest [5][6]. - The imbalance between domestic supply and demand persists, limiting significant inflationary pressure [6]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Impacts**: - The report highlights that while trade-in subsidies have provided some support, they are insufficient to significantly alter the inflation landscape [6]. - Household appliance CPI inflation turned positive in June, reaching **2.8%** YoY in July, but PPI for these goods remained in deflation [6]. - **Market Sentiment**: - There is a cautious optimism regarding the government's ability to manage excess capacity and unemployment while implementing reforms [5][6]. - **Future Projections**: - The report anticipates only modest progress in reducing excess capacity and a gradual improvement in domestic inflation conditions [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state of the Chinese economy, inflation trends, and the implications of government policies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the impact of China's deflationary pressures and tariffs on India's macroeconomic outlook and monetary policy [3][4][5]. Core Insights 1. **Deflationary Spillovers**: China's ongoing deflation and tariffs are creating a lowflation environment in India, affecting corporate pricing power and wage growth [4][5][31]. 2. **RBI's Monetary Policy**: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has cut interest rates by 100 basis points since February 2025, with a significant cut of 50 basis points in June 2025. This easing is expected to support economic reflation with a 2-3 quarter lag [4][15][56]. 3. **Inflation Dynamics**: Despite the lowflation challenge, high food prices have kept India's headline inflation above target levels, delaying monetary easing [4][10][25]. 4. **Trade Exposure**: India has a low exposure to global goods exports (12% of GDP), making it relatively insulated from external trade tensions compared to other Asian economies [5][21]. 5. **Corporate Sector Challenges**: The spillover effects from China's deflation have led to weaker corporate profit growth, which slowed to 7% compared to 9% in 2024. This has resulted in reduced wage growth and hiring in the corporate sector [43][44]. Important Data Points - **Inflation Rates**: India's headline CPI inflation has been below 4% since February 2025, with WPI tracking at -0.1% year-on-year as of June 2025 [25][31]. - **Trade Deficit**: India's trade deficit with China has widened by $30 billion over the past three years, reaching $110 billion [31]. - **Corporate Revenue Growth**: Corporate revenue growth for the BSE500 companies was 7% in Q1 2025, with expectations of recovery as policy easing continues [45]. Additional Considerations 1. **Tariff Implications**: Current tariffs on imports from India are set at 25%. If a trade deal is reached, this could reduce tariffs, but if not, the indirect effects of trade tensions may weigh on corporate confidence and capital expenditure [20][22]. 2. **Future Rate Cuts**: There is a high risk of further rate cuts if inflation continues to surprise on the downside due to external pressures [24][56]. 3. **Sector-Specific Deflation**: Nine manufacturing sectors in India are experiencing intensified deflation, correlating with China's PPI deflation, particularly in metals and electronics [37][41]. Conclusion - The interplay between China's economic challenges and India's domestic policies presents a complex landscape for investors. While India's low exposure to global trade offers some insulation, the ongoing deflationary pressures and potential tariff increases pose significant risks to corporate profitability and economic growth. The RBI's monetary easing is expected to support reflation, but the timing and effectiveness of these measures remain contingent on external economic conditions.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its current challenges, particularly in relation to the **anti-involution push** and **social welfare initiatives** introduced by Beijing to address the "3D" challenges facing the country [1][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-side Dynamics**: There has been an **uneven rebound in upstream prices** in July, with notable increases in specific sectors: - **Polycrystalline silicon** prices increased by approximately **30% month-to-date (MTD)** from late June. - **Lithium hydroxide** prices rose by about **8%**. - **Coal** prices saw a **4%** increase [2][20]. - **Demand-side Concerns**: The sustainability of the price rebound is contingent on **final demand**. The current recovery in upstream prices may not be sustainable without a corresponding increase in consumer demand, which has been sluggish [3][4]. - **Final Demand Trends**: - The **housing market** and **export recovery** were critical in previous cycles (2015-2018) for successful reflation. However, current indicators suggest a potential moderation in exports, particularly to the US, due to declining restocking demand [4][10]. - **Construction activity** remains weak, with demand for **rebar** and **cement** below 2024 levels, indicating ongoing challenges in the housing market and local government financing [7][24]. - **Social Dynamics Indicator**: Recent surveys indicate a decline in sentiment among depositors, with perceptions of the employment situation reaching a record low. This reflects broader economic challenges and aligns with the recent policy shifts aimed at addressing these issues [7][26]. Additional Important Insights - The **July Politburo meeting** emphasized "high quality" urban renewal as a strategy to mitigate the housing market downturn, suggesting limited infrastructure investment support in the absence of decisive stimulus [7]. - The **Social Dynamics Indicator** has shown renewed challenges in Q2 2025, closely tracking with policy moves such as anti-involution initiatives and expanded social welfare [7][26]. - The report highlights that while upstream sectors may experience price increases due to supply constraints, midstream sectors like **petrochemicals** and **construction materials** have shown muted pricing improvements, indicating a lag in demand recovery [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for various sectors.

Market Trends - A distortion in China's money market has vanished, suggesting investors anticipate economic reflation due to recent stimulus measures [1] Economic Outlook - The disappearance of the money market distortion is a nascent sign of improved investor confidence in China's economic outlook [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Supply-side reform in China is evolving, focusing on mid-to-downstream sectors rather than solely on upstream sectors as in previous reforms [2] - The current reform approach is more nuanced and balanced, addressing advanced capacity rather than outdated capacity [2] - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's real GDP growth to below 4.5% in the second half of 2025 due to diminishing export momentum and fiscal easing [11] Summary by Sections Supply-Side Reform - The current supply-side reform is characterized as "new wine in an old bottle," emphasizing the importance of demand for economic reflation [2] - The targeted sectors have shifted from SOE-dominated to POE-dominated firms, indicating a change in ownership dynamics [2] Economic Growth - China's real GDP growth is projected to decline to less than 4.5% in the latter half of 2025, influenced by fading export growth and fiscal easing measures [11] - The economy is expected to remain on a slow reflation path, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving robust growth [11] Housing Market - The housing market continues to face challenges, with elevated inventory levels in lower-tier cities and a persistent decline in housing prices [21] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is considering expanding funding channels to address housing inventory issues, which may depend on various factors including funding size and developer selection [22] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal space in China is becoming more constrained, with major tax revenues and land sales underperforming against budget expectations [38][43] - The report suggests that China needs not only new stimulus measures but also a reformed growth algorithm to address structural issues in the economy [44] Reflation Strategy - The report outlines a "5R" reflation strategy, which includes measures such as expanding fiscal deficits, monetary easing, and social welfare spending to stimulate consumption [47] - The strategy aims for a gradual and uneven progress towards economic recovery, with various policy measures expected to be implemented by the end of 2025 [47]