November 28, 2025 01:26 PM GMT Despite weak FAI, GCF resilience and fall stimulus keep 2025 growth on track to reach 5%. Expect incremental policy levers in 2026: front-loaded fiscal, housing guardrails, and service consumption tweaks. Domestic demand cushioned but not lifted, and reflation remains a slow burn. During our post-outlook marketing, one of the most frequently asked questions was, can the disconnect between macro fundamentals and the stock market persist? For us economists, this question has bec ...

Summary of Japan Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Japanese equity market, specifically the TOPIX index, with a target of 3,600 points by December 2026, indicating a potential increase of nearly 10% from current levels [2][9][15]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Growth and Inflation**: Japan is transitioning from a low-inflation environment to one where inflation is expected to approach 2%, leading to growth, wage increases, and improved pricing flexibility [4][12]. 2. **Corporate Governance Reforms**: Reforms by the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the Financial Services Agency are enhancing corporate governance, prompting companies to rethink balance-sheet management [4][13]. 3. **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights sectors poised for growth, including Construction & Materials, Machinery, Electrical Equipment & Precision Instruments, IT Services, and Banks, while expressing caution towards Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors [9][40][46]. 4. **External Risks**: Significant uncertainty from external shocks is acknowledged, with a wide dispersion between bullish and bearish equity outlooks. Key risks include a potential US economic slowdown and sharp appreciation of the Japanese yen [5][9][35]. 5. **Fiscal Policy**: The Takaichi administration is expected to emphasize economic security and strategic investments in technologies essential for national security, such as AI and semiconductors [5][39]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Earnings Projections**: EPS growth for TOPIX constituents is projected at +16% for 2026, with a further +9% increase in 2027, indicating robust corporate earnings momentum [19]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: The report outlines a forward P/E ratio of 15.0x for the base case, with a potential range from 12.2x in a bear case to 17.0x in a bull case, reflecting a significant range of market expectations [14][19]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - **Cyclical Sectors**: The report recommends focusing on cyclical sectors that can withstand US economic uncertainties, particularly those backed by government investment [39][40]. - **Underperforming Sectors**: Structural headwinds in Food, Pharmaceuticals, and Transportation sectors are highlighted, with expectations of underperformance during economic expansions [46]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for Japanese equities remains positive, with a strong emphasis on building resilient portfolios to navigate potential external shocks. The anticipated fiscal policies and corporate governance reforms are expected to drive long-term growth and profitability in the Japanese market [5][15][19].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: A-Shares Market in China - **Date**: November 13, 2025 Core Insights 1. **Market Sentiment**: A-share investor sentiment remained flat, with the weighted MSASI increasing by 1% to 60% and the weighted MSASI 1MMA decreasing by 3% to 68% compared to the previous cycle [2][2] 2. **Turnover Trends**: Average daily turnover for ChiNext, A-shares, and Equity Futures decreased by 7% (to RMB 508 billion), 4% (to RMB 2,035 billion), and 16% (to RMB 371 billion), respectively [2][2] 3. **CPI and PPI Analysis**: Recent CPI and PPI highs have led to reflation optimism, but these are largely attributed to one-off factors. October core CPI YoY rose to 1.2%, the highest in nearly four years, while PPI YoY deflation narrowed for the third consecutive month [4][4] 4. **Earnings Growth Outlook**: Current momentum is expected to hold rather than break into new highs, with moderate earnings growth and limited valuation upside anticipated [1][13] 5. **Deflationary Pressures**: Domestic deflation is expected to persist, with fiscal stimulus likely to remain modest due to high public debt. The China economics team predicts deflation may continue at least through 2026 [14][14] Important Metrics 1. **Net Inflows**: Southbound trading recorded net inflows of USD 3.1 billion from November 6 to November 12, with year-to-date and month-to-date net inflows reaching USD 161 billion and USD 6.4 billion, respectively [3][3] 2. **Credit Data**: Credit data indicates a restored household risk appetite towards equities, although the negative wealth effect from housing still outweighs equity gains. October credit fell 20 basis points YoY to 8.7% [12][12] 3. **Earnings Stability**: 3Q25 MSCI China results showed slight quarter-on-quarter deterioration in earnings surprises, adding uncertainty to the stabilization trend [13][13] Additional Insights 1. **Investor Sentiment Metrics**: The new MSASI is based on 12 individual indicators capturing different dimensions of investor sentiment and market activity, normalized using a 100-day moving min-max method [15][15] 2. **Normalization Process**: The normalization process ensures that each indicator contributes proportionally, highlighting directional shifts in sentiment over time [23][23] 3. **Weighting of Indicators**: Each of the 12 series is assigned a weight based on its historical explanatory power relative to the CSI 300 Index, ensuring the overall index reflects sentiment components most relevant to A-share performance [24][24] Conclusion - The A-share market sentiment remains flat with moderate earnings growth expected. Key factors such as domestic deflation, credit trends, and investor sentiment metrics will be crucial in shaping the market outlook moving forward.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **Chinese economy**, specifically focusing on inflation metrics such as **CPI (Consumer Price Index)** and **PPI (Producer Price Index)**, and the potential for reflation in the coming years [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: - Recent CPI has shown a year-over-year increase of **1.2%**, the highest in nearly four years, while PPI deflation has narrowed for three consecutive months [2][3]. - However, the increase in CPI is largely attributed to temporary factors, indicating that reflation is not yet underway [2][4]. 2. **Temporary Factors Influencing CPI**: - The October CPI increase was driven by short-lived factors such as the "super Golden Week," a favorable base effect, and rising gold prices [4][16]. - The PPI increase was influenced by non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, and a surge in demand for daily sundry items due to early shopping events [4][16]. 3. **Weak Domestic Demand**: - Despite some positive indicators, final demand remains weak, primarily due to a downturn in the housing market and stagnant wage growth [2][6]. - The consumer goods trade-in program, which previously supported core CPI, is losing effectiveness, with participation rates dropping significantly [5][8]. 4. **Deflationary Pressures**: - The ongoing housing market adjustment continues to negatively impact household sentiment, contributing to a deflationary loop that suppresses wage growth [6][10]. - The overall policy framework remains focused on technology and supply, with limited immediate relief for domestic demand [2][21]. 5. **Future Outlook**: - The expectation is for a gradual reflation process from **2026 to 2027**, with the GDP deflator likely remaining negative in **2026** before turning slightly positive in **2027** [2][21]. - Successful reflation is contingent upon economic rebalancing and a shift towards a more balanced growth model, which may take time to implement [21][22]. Additional Important Insights - **CPI Measurement Limitations**: - The CPI may not fully capture underlying price dynamics due to its inclusion of non-market-based components, such as imputed rents for owner-occupied housing [13][16]. - The relatively low weight of housing rent in China's CPI (approximately **5%**) compared to other countries may understate the impact of housing market adjustments on inflation [16][19]. - **Gold Prices Impact**: - The recent surge in gold prices has inflated CPI figures but does not indicate domestic reflation, as the increase is driven by global demand rather than local consumption [16][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in relation to inflation and reflation dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Canada (BoC), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and Bank of England (BoE) [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment Shift**: Over the past two months, markets have transitioned from a 'central bank put' to a more reflationary outlook following the FOMC meeting, with expectations of monetary policy adjustments influencing market dynamics [1][2]. 2. **Fed Rate Cuts**: There is a high probability (1 to 4 cuts) assigned by markets for additional Fed cuts over the next 12 months, with a notable increase in this probability since September [2][19]. 3. **ECB and Other Central Banks**: The ECB is expected to maintain its current policy stance, while the BoC has already cut rates by 25 basis points. The BoJ is anticipated to raise rates in January, and the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points soon [3][4]. 4. **Asset Performance**: Many asset classes have benefited from the dovish repricing of monetary policy, particularly developed and emerging market fixed income, credit excess returns, and small-cap equities [4][5]. 5. **Volatility and Risk Management**: A modest pro-risk stance is maintained in asset allocation, with a focus on using cross-asset volatility resets to add hedges as year-end approaches [5][8]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Bond Yield Expectations**: The base case anticipates only modest increases in bond yields, with the US yields expected to consolidate at the lower end of the year-to-date range until visibility improves post-government shutdown [8]. 2. **UK Budget Impact**: The upcoming UK budget is expected to lower 10-year Gilt yields, with forecasts adjusted to 4.0% for year-end 2026 [3][20]. 3. **Global Economic Indicators**: Key indicators have turned weaker recently, influencing expectations for monetary policy adjustments across various central banks [3][4]. This summary encapsulates the essential points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the shifts in market sentiment, central bank policies, and asset performance trends.

Market Overview - The market indexes are relatively stable, but there is a noticeable increase in the dollar and the VIX, indicating a potential shift towards defensiveness in the market [1][3] - The dollar index (DXY) has been holding in the 97-98 range, which is crucial for future movements [3] Energy Sector - The energy sector has shown signs of life recently, with traditional oil companies like Exxon and Devon starting to perform well [4][5] - There is a concern that the strength in the energy sector may come at the expense of consumer discretionary and banking sectors, which have been leading the market [5] Defense Stocks - European defense stocks have performed well throughout the year, with companies like Rhyatel reaching new highs [6] Global Market Trends - Despite some fatigue in the S&P, global markets are showing strength, with new highs in markets like NIK and China [7] - There are indications of a global economic reacceleration, as seen in the performance of Chinese stocks and commodities like copper [9] Bond Yields and Mortgage Rates - Bond yields have remained stable over the past two years, with the long end of the curve not breaking higher despite opportunities [10][14] - The mortgage backdrop has improved significantly, with 30-year fixed rates dropping from 7.5% to around 6.25% [13] Investment Strategy - The focus remains on sectors like industrials, financials, and technology, with a particular interest in banks and semiconductors [17][18] - The current environment is unique, as the Fed is cutting rates while banks are at all-time highs, which historically has been a positive signal for banks [18]

Market Trends - Strategas Research Partners 讨论了美元走强、能源股突破、全球再通胀信号 [1] Investment Strategy - Strategas Research Partners 对非必需消费品保持谨慎态度 [1] - Strategas Research Partners 倾向于银行、工业和半导体板块 [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion centers around the **China equity market**, particularly focusing on the recent rally in **A shares** and **H shares**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Recent Rally Triggers**: The rally has added **US$3 trillion** in market capitalization in Hong Kong/China year-to-date, with the **CSI300** and **CSI1000** indices rallying **18%** and **23%** respectively since June. Key catalysts include "reflation" expectations and advancements in **AI** technology [2][9][10]. 2. **Contextualizing the Bull Run**: The current bull run is not unique to China, as many global equity markets are also experiencing valuation and liquidity-driven booms. Normalized profits are projected to grow at a mid-to-high single-digit pace [2][14]. 3. **Sustainability of the Bull Market**: While earnings are essential for the longevity of the bull market, liquidity remains a necessary condition. The setup for a "slow bull" market appears more favorable now than in previous periods [2][15]. 4. **Overheating Risks**: The **A-share Retail Sentiment Proxy** indicates a current reading of **1.3**, suggesting market consolidation risks but not an imminent reversal of the bull trend [2][24][28]. 5. **Investor Participation**: Contrary to popular belief that retail investors are the primary drivers of the rally, data shows that both Chinese and foreign institutional investors have been significant liquidity sponsors [2][32]. 6. **Potential Household Allocation to Equities**: Chinese households have **Rmb160 trillion** in deposits and **Rmb330 trillion** in real estate, indicating a gradual shift towards equities could be substantial over time [2][39]. 7. **Institutional Allocation Potential**: If institutional ownership of onshore equities rises to **50%** (EM average) or **59%** (DM average) from the current **14%**, there could be **Rmb32 trillion** to **Rmb40 trillion** of potential buying [2][7]. 8. **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for large-cap stocks are not stretched, with index PEs at mid-range, suggesting that upside liquidity remains attractively priced [2][8]. 9. **Reversal Risks**: Potential policy shocks, such as abrupt liquidity tightening or regulatory changes, could reverse the current bull trend [2][9]. 10. **Investment Recommendations**: The recommendation is to stay **Overweight** on A and H shares, with forecasts of **8%** and **3%** upside respectively over the next 12 months, and to accumulate on dips focusing on themes like AI and shareholder returns [2][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The rally has been supported by a significant rotation of funds from bonds to equities, with noticeable fund flow shifts observed [2][4]. - **AI Sector Performance**: AI-related stocks, particularly in upstream semiconductor cohorts, have led the recent rally, indicating a strong thematic investment trend [2][7]. - **Historical Context**: The analysis of past bull markets shows that valuation changes have historically been the dominant return driver, suggesting that while earnings upgrades are beneficial, they are not a binding constraint for further upside [2][16][17]. - **Retail Sentiment Analysis**: The current retail sentiment is not at euphoric levels compared to previous peaks, indicating a more stable market environment [2][25][28]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the current state and outlook of the China equity market, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Summary of J.P. Morgan's Economic and Policy Research on China Industry Overview - **Industry**: Economic analysis focusing on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) trends Key Points Consumer Price Index (CPI) - Headline CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year (oya) and 0.03% month-on-month (m/m, seasonally adjusted) in August, which was softer than the expected decline of 0.2% oya [1] - The primary contributor to the decline was food prices, which decreased by 4.3% oya and 0.8% m/m, reducing the headline CPI's annual rate by 0.9 percentage points [1][4] - Transportation and communication costs also saw a slight dip of 0.1% m/m, influenced by a 0.9% m/m decline in vehicle fuel prices due to lower global oil prices [1] - Core CPI inflation increased to 0.9% oya, reflecting a 0.1% m/m uptick, indicating modest gains in other categories such as clothing (+0.2% m/m), household services (+0.2%), and medical care (+0.4%) [1][4] Producer Price Index (PPI) - PPI rose by 0.1% m/m in August, marking the first sequential gain in 14 months, with the annual PPI deflation rate narrowing to 2.9% oya [2][4] - Consumer goods PPI fell by 1.7% oya, while producer goods PPI dropped by 3.2% oya, indicating slower declines in mining, raw materials, and manufacturing [2] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to government anti-involution efforts aimed at promoting orderly production and price competition, with notable reductions in price declines for coal processing (10.3 percentage points), ferrous metal smelting (6.0), and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing (2.8) [2][4] Economic Outlook - The sequential uptick in PPI is seen as encouraging, but broad-based reflation is expected to take time due to the modest and lagged impact of anti-involution measures [3][4] - The sustainability of recent producer price gains in upstream raw materials and new economy sectors remains uncertain, with limited spillover effects to other sectors [6] - CPI inflation is projected to hover around 0% in the coming months, influenced by persistent food price weakness and a domestic supply-demand imbalance [6][4] Additional Insights - The government's anti-involution efforts are expected to be data-dependent and moderate, considering the broader industry scope and the higher share of non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs) [5][4] - The macroeconomic environment is fragile, particularly with ongoing weakness in the housing market, which may limit the effectiveness of policy measures [5][4] Conclusion - The current economic indicators suggest a cautious outlook for both CPI and PPI in China, with ongoing deflationary pressures and a need for careful monitoring of government policies and market conditions to gauge future trends and potential investment opportunities.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Economics Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy**, particularly the inflation metrics and the impact of anti-involution on various sectors [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **CPI and PPI Trends**: - China's headline **CPI** turned negative at **-0.4% YoY** in August, primarily due to falling food prices [4][6]. - The **PPI** reading improved to **-2.9% YoY**, with a sequential change of **0.0% MoM**, marking the end of an 8-month streak of negative prints [5][6]. 2. **Food Prices Impact**: - Food prices increased by **0.5% MoM**, but the year-on-year decline widened to **-4.3% YoY**, the largest contraction since February 2024 [6]. - Pork prices continued to decline, reaching **-16.1% YoY**, while vegetables and fruits also saw significant price drops [6]. 3. **Core Inflation**: - Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose to **0.9% YoY**, with core goods inflation reaching **1.4% YoY**, the highest since February 2020 [6][13]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: - Upstream sectors showed signs of reflation, particularly in coal and ferrous metal mining, where contractions narrowed significantly [5][6]. - Downstream sectors, including solar and NEVs, experienced selective recovery, but overall demand remains a concern [5][6]. 5. **Future Expectations**: - A firm pickup in CPI is expected towards year-end, despite near-term volatility, with ongoing upstream reflation for PPI [1][15]. - Incremental policy measures are anticipated, focusing on property support, infrastructure, and potential new financial injections of approximately **RMB 500 billion** [16]. 6. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The central bank is not expected to rush into rate cuts, with both policy rate cuts and RRR cuts likely delayed amid an equity rally [16]. Additional Important Content - The report highlights the potential for smaller discounts during upcoming online promotions due to regulatory efforts to manage price competition in food delivery [15]. - The overall economic outlook suggests stabilization in the GDP deflator and a cautious approach to monetary easing, reflecting the complexities of the current economic environment [15][16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future expectations of the Chinese economy.