Core Viewpoint - Constellation Energy has experienced a significant stock price increase of over 45% in the past month, driven by its strategic focus on supplying energy to the AI data center industry [1][2][11]. Strategic Focus - The company is committed to becoming a key power provider for the energy-intensive AI sector, emphasizing the importance of reliable power sources, particularly nuclear energy, to meet projected demand [2][4][12]. - Constellation's strategy includes a preference for on-grid sales to power-hungry data centers, allowing for greater flexibility and collaboration with various utilities [5]. Nuclear Energy Advantage - The existing nuclear fleet is highlighted as a competitive advantage, offering cost-effectiveness, reliability, long-term fixed-price contracts, and sustainability, making it an optimal choice for data center clients [6]. Growth Initiatives - The pending acquisition of Calpine, expected to close by the end of 2025, is projected to add at least $2 in earnings per share and $2 billion in free cash flow annually, enhancing generation capabilities [7]. - Organic growth initiatives, including the restart of the Crane Clean Energy Center, aim to address the increasing energy demand [7]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Constellation reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.14 and revenue of $6.79 billion, exceeding expectations and reflecting a 10.18% year-over-year increase [8]. - The company reaffirmed its full-year 2025 adjusted operating EPS guidance in the range of $8.90 to $9.60, indicating confidence in its financial outlook [9][10]. Stock Forecast and Investor Sentiment - The 12-month stock price forecast is set at $282.50, indicating a potential upside of 4.19%, with a Moderate Buy rating from analysts [9]. - Management views the current stock price as undervalued relative to projected double-digit earnings growth, with intentions to resume share buybacks when conditions allow [10].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BKV reported a net loss of $79 million or a loss of $0.93 per diluted share for Q1 2025, while adjusted net income was $35 million or a positive $0.41 per diluted share [30] - Combined adjusted EBITDAX was just over $100 million, with $90 million from upstream operations and $10 million from the power segment [29] - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 were approximately $15 million, with net leverage standing at less than 0.7 times net debt to adjusted EBITDAX [32] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The upstream business produced 761 million cubic feet equivalent per day, exceeding guidance, with development CapEx at $48 million, 26% below the midpoint of guidance [15][16] - Power joint venture adjusted EBITDA was $20 million, with BKV's share at $10 million, driven by higher pricing due to cold weather [27] - The carbon capture business is on track with significant milestones, including a partnership with Comstock Resources and a $500 million investment commitment from Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ERCOT revised its 2031 load forecast higher by 68 gigawatts, a 45% increase from 2024 projections, primarily driven by data centers [26] - The demand for low carbon gas is expected to grow, supported by decarbonization efforts and the increasing need for power driven by cloud computing and AI [4][5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BKV is focused on vertical integration across its four business lines: upstream, midstream, carbon capture, and power generation, aiming to create premium margins and differentiated products [5] - The company is leveraging its position in the Barnett Shale, which has over 15 years of inventory and is strategically located near LNG export markets and data centers [8][15] - BKV aims to deliver decarbonized energy solutions and capitalize on the growing demand for carbon capture and storage [12][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the robustness of the 45Q tax credit and the bipartisan support for carbon capture initiatives [45] - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BKV's proactive supply chain management is expected to minimize disruptions and cost impacts [5] - The company anticipates a ramp-up in production in the second half of 2025, with natural gas pricing remaining elevated [18] Other Important Information - BKV's CCUS strategy is validated by recent partnerships and project advancements, with a goal of achieving a 1 million ton per year CO2 injection rate by the end of 2027 [23][60] - The company has a disciplined capital investment framework, with expectations for total CapEx in Q2 2025 between $75 million and $100 million [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on the resiliency of the 45Q tax credit and momentum in CCUS projects - Management believes the 45Q tax credit is robust and enjoys bipartisan support, which is critical for energy competitiveness in the U.S. [45][46] - There is strong momentum in carbon capture, particularly in natural gas processing, with several projects in the pipeline [49] Question: Clarification on CapEx for CCUS and project timing - Management indicated that while the overall CapEx for CCUS remains robust, the timing may shift as they optimize capital spending with their JV partner [58][60] Question: Upstream production growth inclination - Management remains committed to disciplined capital investment, with a focus on commodity price ranges, and anticipates production growth in the latter half of 2025 [65][66] Question: Details on the Comstock partnership and project development - Management explained that the partnership with Comstock will follow a phased approach, capturing CO2 from their plants as production grows [73] Question: Macroeconomic conditions affecting the power segment - Management highlighted inflation in construction costs and bullish sentiment for data center investments as key factors influencing the power business [75][77] Question: Funding mechanisms for the new JV with CIP - Management confirmed that there is an upfront capital component to the JV, which will be drawn down as projects are deployed over the next 12 to 24 months [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BKV reported a net loss of $79 million or a loss of $0.93 per diluted share for Q1 2025, while adjusted net income was $35 million or a positive $0.41 per diluted share [30] - Combined adjusted EBITDAX was just over $100 million, with $90 million from upstream operations and $10 million from the power segment [29] - Accrued capital expenditures for the quarter were $58 million, significantly below the low end of the guidance range of $75 million [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The upstream business produced 761 million cubic feet equivalent per day, exceeding the midpoint of guidance [15] - Development capital expenditures for upstream were $48 million, 26% below the midpoint of the guided range [16] - Power joint venture adjusted EBITDA was $20 million, with BKV's share being $10 million, driven by higher pricing due to cold weather [27] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ERCOT revised its 2031 load forecast higher by 68 gigawatts, a 45% increase from 2024 projections, primarily driven by data centers [26] - Power prices averaged $54.52 per megawatt hour, with an average realized spark spread of $25.39 per megawatt hour [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BKV is focused on vertical integration across its four business lines: upstream, midstream, carbon capture, and power generation, aiming to create premium margins [5] - The company is leveraging its position in the Barnett Shale, which has over 15 years of inventory and is geographically advantaged for natural gas supply [8] - BKV is actively pursuing partnerships to enhance its carbon capture business, including a significant investment from Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the robustness of the 45Q tax credit and the ongoing demand for low carbon gas amid global decarbonization efforts [4] - The company anticipates continued strong demand growth in the power sector, particularly in Texas, driven by data centers and industrial growth [9] - Despite macroeconomic headwinds, BKV's proactive supply chain management is expected to minimize disruptions and cost impacts [5] Other Important Information - BKV's CCUS strategy is gaining momentum, with multiple projects on track for CO2 injection in the coming years [20][21] - The company has a strong balance sheet with net leverage of less than 0.7 times net debt to adjusted EBITDAX [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on the resiliency of the 45Q tax credit and momentum behind CCUS projects - Management believes the 45Q tax credit is robust and enjoys bipartisan support, which is critical for energy competitiveness in the U.S. [45] - There is strong momentum in carbon capture, particularly for natural gas processing projects, with BKV positioned as a leader in this space [47] Question: Clarification on CapEx for CCUS and project timing - Management indicated that while the overall CapEx for CCUS remains robust, the timing may shift as they optimize capital spending with their JV partner [58] Question: Upstream production growth inclination - Management reiterated a disciplined approach to capital investment, with a commitment to 2% to 3% growth in production by Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024 [66] Question: Details on the Comstock partnership and project development - Management explained that the partnership with Comstock will follow a phased approach, allowing BKV to grow with Comstock's production [75] Question: Insights on the power business and macroeconomic conditions - Management highlighted that inflation in construction costs could impact power prices, but there is a bullish outlook for data center investments in the U.S. [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - BKV reported a net loss of $79 million or a loss of $0.93 per diluted share for Q1 2025, while adjusted net income was $35 million or a positive $0.41 per diluted share after removing unrealized derivative losses [27] - Combined adjusted EBITDAX was just over $100 million, with $90 million from upstream operations and $10 million from the Power joint venture [26][30] - Accrued capital expenditures for the quarter were $58 million, significantly below the low end of the guidance range of $75 million [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The upstream business produced 761 million cubic feet equivalent per day, exceeding the midpoint of guidance, with development CapEx spending at $48 million, 26% below the midpoint of the guided range [13][14] - The Power joint venture's adjusted EBITDA was $20 million for the quarter, with BKV's implied 50% share being $10 million, driven by higher pricing due to cold weather [24] - The carbon capture business is on track with significant milestones, including a partnership with Comstock Resources and a $500 million investment commitment from Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners [10][11][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ERCOT revised its 2031 load forecast higher by 68 gigawatts, a 45% increase from 2024 projections, primarily driven by data centers [23] - Power prices averaged $54.52 per megawatt hour, with an average realized spark spread of $25.39 per megawatt hour [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - BKV is focused on vertical integration across its four business lines: upstream, midstream, carbon capture, and power generation, aiming to create premium margins and differentiated products [5] - The company is leveraging its position in the Barnett Shale, which is experiencing a renaissance, to optimize capital expenditures and enhance operational efficiencies [12][13] - BKV aims to capitalize on the growing demand for decarbonized energy solutions, particularly in the context of data centers and the broader energy transition [11][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the robustness of the 45Q tax credit and the bipartisan support for carbon capture initiatives, which are expected to drive growth in the CCUS sector [4][43] - The company anticipates continued strong demand for natural gas and power, particularly in Texas, driven by economic development and the expansion of data centers [8][23] - Management remains cautious about macroeconomic headwinds, including inflation and potential tariffs, but believes in the resilience of its business model [5][30] Other Important Information - BKV's cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 were approximately $15 million, with a net leverage ratio of less than 0.7 times [28] - The company has a strong balance sheet and increased its borrowing base to $850 million, reflecting confidence in its financial position [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on the resiliency of the 45Q tax credit and momentum behind CCUS projects - Management believes the 45Q tax credit is robust and enjoys bipartisan support, which is critical for energy competitiveness in the U.S. [43][44] - There is strong momentum in carbon capture, particularly for natural gas processing projects, with BKV positioned as a leader in this space [45][46] Question: CapEx for CCUS and potential changes - Management indicated that while the internal CapEx for CCUS remains unchanged, the timing may shift as they optimize capital spending with their new JV partner [54][55] Question: Upstream production growth inclination - Management reiterated a disciplined approach to capital investment, with a commitment to 2% to 3% growth in production by Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024, while monitoring macroeconomic conditions [60][62] Question: Differences in project timing with Comstock - Management explained that the development of projects with Comstock will follow a phased approach, allowing for growth as Comstock increases production [68][70] Question: Funding mechanisms for the new JV with CIP - Management confirmed that there is an upfront capital component associated with the JV, which will be drawn down over the next 12 to 24 months as projects are deployed [82][83] Question: Willingness to pay a premium for decarbonized power and gas - Management noted that while not all customers are willing to pay a premium, there is a segment, particularly large tech companies, that are very interested in decarbonized energy solutions [85][86]

Business Strategy and Operations - BKV is the largest producer in the Barnett and a top 5 gas producer in Texas, with approximately 13 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of production from other smaller operators in the play[15] - BKV has a highly contiguous position with opportunities for growth in acreage[18] - BKV has taken an early lead in the Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) space[21] - BKV has a strategic joint venture with Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) for CCUS projects, with CIP covering 100% of JV expenses until their contributions equal 49% of the total value[27, 33] - BKV manages and consolidates the JV, initially receiving pro-rata distributions, which increase to 60% after CIP achieves minimum return targets[33] Power and Market Position - BKV-BPP Power Joint Venture supplies power to the ERCOT market[35] - The ERCOT (Texas) market has a power capacity of 6,082 MW[38, 99] - BKV has a 2.5 MWac solar facility jointly owned through a JV with Banpu Power US[92] - ERCOT forecasts substantial demand growth, with a projected increase of +67% for Oil and Gas and +132% for Industrial/Hydrogen from 2025 to 2031[97] Financial Performance - The company's financial highlights for the first quarter of 2025 include $689.8 million in revenue and $653.6 million in adjusted EBITDAX[105] - The company's financial strategy focuses on disciplined growth and shareholder returns[107] - The company's Barnett development has an average 1st Year Decline of 45% for New Drill D&C and 58% for Refracs[53]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $200 million and adjusted free cash flow of $87 million for Q1 2025, exceeding internal estimates and underpinning 2025 guidance [10][21][24] - The adjusted EBITDA range for 2025 has been narrowed to $975 million to $1,125 million, while the adjusted free cash flow range is now $450 million to $540 million [22][23] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fossil fleet generated approximately 20% more power than the same period last year, despite the absence of ERCOT assets [21] - The Susquehanna nuclear facility contributed slightly less than half of the total power generation of 9.7 terawatt hours during the quarter [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1, there was an increase of 7 terawatt hours or approximately 3.5% in incremental deliveries in PJM compared to the prior year, leading to a dispatch increase of 1.6 terawatt hours [15] - The company noted that the weather in PJM was colder than average, contributing to increased demand and higher settled on-peak power prices compared to the previous year [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on executing its business plan, emphasizing operations, commercialization of megawatts, and returning capital to shareholders [6][10] - The strategic partnership with AWS is a key component of the growth strategy, with plans to expand beyond the current 300 megawatt ISA [12][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects for the IPP business, citing tightening power markets and increasing data center loads [7][8] - The company is optimistic about the future, despite market uncertainties related to tariffs and trade restrictions, and believes that the intersection of power and data centers will be validated in 2025 [10][18] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $83 million worth of shares during Q1 2025, continuing its share repurchase program [11][24] - The company has approximately $1 billion in buyback capacity remaining through the end of 2026 and maintains a net leverage ratio of approximately 2.6 times [24][25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shift in customer interest toward front of the meter deals - Management acknowledged ongoing discussions about various ways to power data centers and expand growth strategy, emphasizing the importance of speed to market [32][34] Question: Current status of the FERC process and co-location - Management indicated that the FERC process is evolving, with a focus on resolving issues quickly to support economic development in Pennsylvania [39][40] Question: Updates on PPL zone capacity and potential expansion - Management reiterated their growth strategy focused on leveraging existing assets and emphasized the importance of reliability in their contracts [46][47] Question: Details on the Susquehanna outage - Management confirmed a target for the outage to be completed by mid-May, with confidence in the incremental maintenance work being performed [66][68] Question: Capital allocation and buyback pace - Management stated that they will continue to execute their share repurchase program when market opportunities arise, with a focus on returning capital to shareholders [82][86] Question: Insights on PJM auction and new builds - Management expressed optimism about the upcoming capacity auction and discussed the challenges of new builds due to current market conditions [91][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $200 million and adjusted free cash flow of $87 million for Q1 2025, exceeding internal estimates [8][20] - The adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 has been narrowed to a range of $975 million to $1,125 million, while the adjusted free cash flow guidance is now between $450 million and $540 million [21][22] - The company experienced a 20% increase in power generation from its fossil fleet compared to the same period last year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The fossil fleet generated approximately 9.7 terawatt hours of power, with a forced outage factor of 1.2% [18][19] - The Susquehanna nuclear facility contributed slightly less than half of the total generation, while the Montour and Bruner Island facilities saw significant increases in generation [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company observed a 3.5% increase in incremental deliveries in the PJM market compared to the previous year, leading to a dispatch increase of approximately 1.6 terawatt hours [14] - The market is experiencing tightening conditions driven by increased demand, particularly from data centers [15][16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on executing its business plan, emphasizing operations, commercialization of megawatts, and returning capital to shareholders [5][6] - The company is committed to expanding its strategy to contract megawatts at other sites, aiming to deliver the most free cash flow per megawatt [5] - The company is actively exploring various commercial solutions to power data centers, including both front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter arrangements [32][35] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects for the Independent Power Producer (IPP) business, citing strong data center load growth and a favorable market environment [6][15] - The company is optimistic about the future, with expectations of increased energy sales and operational efficiency following maintenance work at the Susquehanna facility [13][66] - Management acknowledged uncertainties related to tariffs and trade restrictions but indicated that these do not have a material effect on near-term costs [21][22] Other Important Information - The company repurchased $83 million worth of shares during Q1 2025, continuing its share repurchase program [9][23] - The company has approximately $1 billion in buyback capacity remaining through the end of 2026 [23] Q&A Session Summary Question: Shift in customer interest toward front-of-the-meter deals - Management confirmed ongoing discussions regarding various ways to power data centers, including front-of-the-meter solutions, while executing the current contract with AWS [32][35] Question: Current status of the FERC process and potential settlement - Management indicated that the FERC process is evolving, with a focus on resolving issues quickly to support economic development related to data centers [39][40] Question: Updates on the litigation process at the Fifth Circuit around the ISA - The company is monitoring the Fifth Circuit proceedings, with a briefing schedule expected soon, focusing on technical issues related to the FERC decision [118][120]

Q1 2025 Results Talen Energy Corporation | May 8, 2025 Disclaimers The information contained herein, as well as any information that has been supplied orally in connection herewith, speaks only as of the date of this presentation. Talen Energy Corporation ("Talen," "TEC," the "Company," "we," "our," or "us") and our affiliates and representatives expressly disclaim any obligation to update any information contained herein, whether as a result of new information or circumstances, future events or otherwise. ...

Core Viewpoint - Talen Energy Corporation reported a solid start to 2025, with significant earnings and operational performance despite a net loss attributable to stockholders. The company is committed to shareholder value through stock repurchases and has affirmed its guidance for the year [2][3][4]. Financial and Operating Results - For Q1 2025, Talen reported a GAAP net loss attributable to stockholders of $(135) million, a decrease of $(429) million compared to Q1 2024, primarily due to the absence of a gain from the AWS Data Campus sale and lower hedge gains [4][5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $200 million, down $(89) million from the previous year, while Adjusted Free Cash Flow was $87 million, a decrease of $(107) million compared to Q1 2024 [4][5]. - Total generation increased to 9.7 TWh, with 46% from carbon-free nuclear generation, down from 58% in the previous year [4][5]. Guidance and Outlook - The company is affirming and narrowing its 2025 guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to a range of $975 million to $1,125 million and Adjusted Free Cash Flow to $450 million to $540 million [7]. - The outlook for 2026 remains unchanged [7]. Operational Highlights - The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved the reliability-must-run (RMR) settlement agreement, allowing Talen to operate its Brandon Shores and H.A. Wagner facilities until May 31, 2029, ensuring grid reliability [4][9]. - The Susquehanna Unit 2 refueling outage was extended to perform additional maintenance, expected to improve capacity and efficiency, with an investment of approximately $20 million [8]. Share Repurchase Program - Since the beginning of 2024, Talen has repurchased approximately 14 million shares, representing 23% of outstanding shares, totaling around $2 billion, with $995 million remaining under the repurchase program [10]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of May 2, 2025, Talen had total available liquidity of approximately $970 million, consisting of $270 million in unrestricted cash and $700 million under its revolving credit facility [11]. - The projected net leverage ratio is approximately 2.6x, below the target of 3.5x net debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA [11]. Hedging Activities - As of March 31, 2025, Talen had hedged approximately 95% of expected generation volumes for 2025, 60% for 2026, and 30% for 2027, supporting cash flow stability [12].

Core Viewpoint - Statkraft reported strong underlying results in Q1 2025, achieving record-high power generation despite lower power prices [1][8]. Financial Performance - Power generation reached 21.7 TWh, an increase of 12% from 19.4 TWh in Q1 2024, marking the highest quarterly generation in Statkraft's history [6][8]. - Net operating revenues were NOK 15.8 billion, down from NOK 19.6 billion in the same quarter last year [6]. - Underlying EBITDA decreased to NOK 10.9 billion from NOK 15.1 billion, while underlying EBIT fell to NOK 9.0 billion from NOK 13.5 billion [6][9]. - Net profit remained stable at NOK 6.8 billion, unchanged from the previous year, supported by positive currency effects [13]. Market Development - Average system price in the Nordic region was 46.0 EUR/MWh, down 12.3 EUR/MWh from Q1 2024, while the German market saw an increase to 112.5 EUR/MWh, up 44.9 EUR/MWh year-on-year [4][5]. - Power prices in the Nordic region fell by 21%, while prices in Germany rose by 67% compared to the same quarter last year [6]. Investment and Development - Construction began on the new Svean hydropower plant, part of a broader capacity upgrade and modernization program [3][8]. - Statkraft made investment decisions for the Blåsjø-Saurdal headrace tunnel (NOK 900 million) and submitted license applications for the Moifjellet wind farm and Nore hydropower plant upgrades (both around NOK 4 billion) [6][8]. - The company signed long-term contracts with Alcoa Norway for a total delivery of up to 1800 GWh [6]. Strategic Adjustments - Statkraft is sharpening its strategy by focusing on fewer technologies and markets, divesting non-core assets, and halting new green hydrogen project developments due to increased market uncertainty [15][16]. - The company aims to adapt to the volatile geopolitical environment while maintaining a long-term perspective on energy transition [18].