[Music] Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bardis alongside Alex Coffeeoffe. So just some final thoughts on today's session, Alex.I mean really the conversation right now has been centered around the 2026 outlook as most of our guests have been talking about over the last 90 minutes or so. The guests I've been speaking to really believe that the beginning of 2026 is likely going to be really an extension of the end of 2025. And what they mean by that is the drivers which are really propelling this mar ...

Core Insights - Wages are increasing at a rate that outpaces price growth, potentially providing relief for buyers in a challenging housing market [1] Group 1 - The rise in wages could lead to improved affordability for homebuyers, as they may have more disposable income to allocate towards housing costs [1] - This trend of increasing wages relative to prices may signal a shift in the housing market dynamics, offering a more favorable environment for potential buyers [1] - The long-standing hostility of the housing market may begin to ease as wage growth continues to outstrip inflation [1]

Core Insights - Lower mortgage rates and slowing price growth have led to a 3.3% increase in pending home sales in November, marking the largest rise in contract signings since early 2023, surpassing the expected 0.9% increase [1][2] - Year-over-year, contract activity has risen by 2.6%, with all regions experiencing an increase, particularly the West, which saw a 9.2% month-over-month gain [2][3] - The improving affordability in housing, driven by lower mortgage rates and faster wage growth compared to home prices, is encouraging buyers to enter the market [3][4] Market Conditions - The housing market has faced significant challenges since mid-2022 due to rising mortgage rates and increased home prices, which have excluded many potential buyers [4][5] - The average rate for a 30-year mortgage has been around 6.2% recently, down from a peak of 7% in early 2025, contributing to the recent uptick in market activity [5][6] - Despite the recent increase, home sales in 2025 are projected to be at or near three-decade lows, although a gradual normalization of the housing market is anticipated as inventory levels improve and mortgage rates decrease [6]

Core Insights - Homeowners in many U.S. states are facing challenges with rising housing costs, leading to increased foreclosure activity, which rose by 21% year-over-year in November, although it was 3% lower than October levels [1][8] - Foreclosure activity has been increasing for nine consecutive months, indicating a trend of normalization in the housing market as homeowners deal with higher costs and economic pressures [4] Foreclosure Activity by State - Delaware experienced a significant increase in foreclosure activity, rising nearly 159% year-over-year in November, while Nevada saw an increase of almost 26%, New Jersey over 48%, and Florida about 21% [3][8] - Philadelphia reported the highest foreclosure activity in the U.S., with one in every 1,511 housing units in foreclosure, although this spike is attributed to backlogged data [4] Market Conditions - Elevated housing costs and high mortgage rates, currently at 6.18%, have contributed to a frozen market, keeping housing sales at historically low levels, with the median price of existing-home sales in November at $433,175 [7] - The geographic spread of foreclosure activity suggests that it is influenced by nationwide affordability challenges and localized market pressures rather than a single regional factor [5]

加拿大房地产可负担性危机有所缓解，但住房依然远谈不上可负担。RBC的数据显示，2025年第三季度已是住房可负担性连续第7个季度改 善。然而，尽管趋势持续，当前水平也只是略好于1990年代房地产泡沫高峰期。RBC警告称，如果2026年不太可能降息，那么短期内这可能已 经是最好的情况——除非房价进一步下跌。 加拿大住房可负担性连续第7个季度改善 加拿大住房可负担性持续改善，其衡量方式为住房持有成本占家庭收入中位数的比例。2025年第三季度，一个中等收入家庭需要将53.2%的收 入用于支付住房持有成本，较上一季度下降0.4个百分点。这已是连续第7次下降，但也是降幅最小的一次，表明这一改善趋势正在"耗尽动 能"。 RBC助理首席经济学家Robert Hogue解释说："然而，本轮周期中最新一次改善幅度最小……仅为0.4个百分点，还不到此前六个季度平均1.7个 百分点降幅的四分之一。" 加拿大住房可负担性改善，但仍接近90年代高点 RBC住房可负担性指数：住房持有成本占家庭收入中位数的比例。 RBC强调，住房"可负担性改善"和"住房可负担"是两回事。几乎所有市场的状况仍然比疫情前更差，当前水平仅比历史最糟糕记录——19 ...

Core Insights - The weekly mortgage rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has decreased to 6.18 percent, the lowest since 2022, down from 6.21 percent the previous week [2][3] - The current mortgage rate is 0.86 percentage points lower than the yearly peak of 7.04 percent reached in mid-January [3] Housing Market Dynamics - The U.S. housing market saw 37.2 percent more sellers than buyers in November, marking the largest gap since 2013, with 529,770 more sellers [5][6] - Redfin defines a market with over 10 percent more sellers than buyers as a buyer's market, which has been the case since May 2024 [6] - Among the 50 most populous U.S. metropolitan areas, Austin, Texas, had the highest disparity with 114 percent more sellers than buyers [6][7] - In November, the number of home buyers reached the second-lowest level on record due to economic uncertainty and high housing costs [7] Builder Confidence and Market Outlook - Builder confidence for newly built single-family homes has slightly improved, despite challenges like rising construction costs and buyer hesitation [8] - Builders have reported future sales expectations above the breakeven level of 50 for the past three months, aided by recent easing of monetary policy [9] - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rates three times this year, now ranging from 3.5 to 3.75 percent [9] Future Projections - Mortgage rates are expected to ease somewhat in 2026, although they are forecasted to remain above 6 percent through the end of next year [10][11] - Slightly lower rates and slower price growth could improve affordability, potentially bringing more buyers into the market [11] - President Trump has indicated plans for aggressive housing reform and a new Federal Reserve chairman to support lower interest rates, which may further reduce mortgage rates [13]

Core Viewpoint - The newly implemented "Zhaoqing City Management Measures for Sale-type Affordable Housing (Trial)" aims to standardize the construction and management of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of wage-earning groups and talents [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The measures provide clear regulations on construction, application conditions, sales prices, and exit mechanisms for sale-type affordable housing, with a validity period of three years [1][2]. - The policy supports the establishment of a multi-tiered housing supply system in Zhaoqing City [2]. Group 2: Target Groups - Sale-type affordable housing is aimed at two groups: local households facing housing difficulties and high-level talents recognized under the "Xijiang Talent Plan," with the latter not being restricted by household registration [3]. - Applicants must not own any housing in the city and have no housing transaction records in the past two years, with each household limited to purchasing one unit [3]. Group 3: Construction and Supply - The measures encourage various methods to increase supply, including land allocation for new construction, integration with commercial housing projects, and revitalization of existing housing [3]. - New housing units will primarily be limited to a maximum area of 120 square meters, with most units being under 90 square meters [3]. Group 4: Pricing Strategy - The pricing principle is based on "cost recovery with minimal profit," where the sales price consists of construction costs plus a maximum of 5% profit [4]. - The final price may vary based on factors such as floor level and orientation, while municipal infrastructure costs outside the project boundary will not be included in the housing price [4]. Group 5: Sales and Management - The sales process will follow a current housing sales model with a waiting list system, ensuring fairness through public announcement, qualification review, and open selection [4]. - Housing will be managed under strict conditions, prohibiting rental, lending, or changes in use, with special markings on property certificates to prevent market flow [4]. Group 6: Exit Mechanism - If buyers purchase other properties or no longer meet eligibility criteria due to job changes or relocation, the government will facilitate repurchase at a depreciated price based on the original purchase price [4]. - Changes in ownership due to inheritance or divorce will not alter the housing's affordable status [4]. Group 7: Supervision and Compliance - The measures impose strict penalties for fraudulent applications, including disqualification and housing recovery, with a ten-year ban on reapplying for any form of housing assistance [4].

The housing market in the US is currently navigating two opposite forces: still high mortgage rates since 2022 , and the growth in demand driven by demographic shifts. In this environment, the market remains interesting to investI am a dynamic finance professional with a Master’s in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne. My investing background mix corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets. I specialize in financi ...

Core Insights - Florida remains a popular retirement destination due to its favorable climate, beaches, and lack of state income tax, with home prices expected to decline slightly in 2026, presenting a potential opportunity for buyers [1][9][11] Home Price Trends - Home prices in Florida's eight largest metro areas are projected to decrease nearly 2% in 2026, with Miami being the only city expected to see a slight increase of 1.1%, while Gulf Coast areas may experience declines up to 10.2% [3][9] - The decline in home prices follows a period of rapid appreciation during the pandemic, driven by increased demand from remote workers and retirees, which led to unsustainable price increases [4][5] Affordability Challenges - Rising homeowners insurance costs, averaging $7,136 annually—nearly three times the national average—along with increasing homeowners association (HOA) fees, which range from $100 to $800 per month, are significant factors affecting affordability for retirees [7][8][9] - Despite potential home price declines, the overall cost of living in Florida remains high due to these rising expenses, which may offset any savings from lower home prices [9][12] Financial Benefits - Florida's lack of state income tax provides financial advantages for retirees relying on Social Security, pensions, or investment income, potentially offsetting higher housing-related costs [10][11] - Recent initiatives by the state government, such as proposals to eliminate property taxes on owner-occupied homes, could further enhance the financial appeal of living in Florida [10]

According to recent research from Zillow, 53% of all American homes lost value over the past year, which is the highest figure since 2012. The data also showed that most homes have declined in value from their peak, with an average drop of 9.7%. These figures can be intimidating, as a home is often the largest asset, and a steep decline could affect net worth or retirement plans. While the price declines were common, the actual money lost was minimal because only 4.1% of homes are not as valuable as the ...