Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new type of housing in Guangzhou, known as "allocated affordable housing," has sparked significant market discussion, with many potential buyers weighing the benefits and drawbacks of this option against traditional commercial housing [1][6]. Group 1: Characteristics of Allocated Affordable Housing - Allocated affordable housing is positioned as a 2.0 version of previous affordable housing, focusing on prime locations with good transportation and public services [7][8]. - The first batch of projects, such as the Luogang Heyuan, features units ranging from approximately 76 to 93 square meters, with a base price of 15,800 yuan per square meter, significantly lower than nearby commercial properties [12][14]. - However, this type of housing has limitations, including specific eligibility criteria for buyers and restrictions on resale, rental, and mortgage options, which can affect liquidity [14][15][16]. Group 2: Comparison with Commercial Housing - Commercial housing offers no purchase restrictions, allowing for greater flexibility in use, resale, and investment potential, making it financially attractive [19][20]. - Properties like Jiada Ruiyuan in the same area boast lower density, higher quality, and extensive amenities, appealing to buyers seeking a better living environment [22][24]. - While allocated affordable housing is suitable for budget-conscious buyers looking for stability, commercial housing is recommended for those with higher budgets and expectations for quality living [34].

Core Viewpoint - The housing market in March showed significant improvement, with an increase in the number of cities experiencing rising home prices, indicating a positive trend in the real estate sector [1][4]. Summary by Category Housing Market Activity - In March, 24 out of 70 major cities saw new home prices rise month-on-month, an increase of 6 cities from the previous month. For second-hand homes, 10 cities experienced price increases, up by 7 cities [2]. - First-tier cities have seen new home prices rise for four consecutive months, while second-hand home prices shifted from decline to increase [1][4]. Price Changes - New home prices in first-tier cities rose by 0.1% month-on-month in March, with Shanghai and Shenzhen increasing by 0.7% and 0.1%, respectively. Beijing and Guangzhou saw declines of 0.2% and 0.1% [2]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities turned from a decline of 0.1% to an increase of 0.2% in March, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing increases of 0.5%, 0.4%, and 0.3%, respectively [2][3]. Year-on-Year Comparisons - Year-on-year, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 2.8%, with Shanghai increasing by 5.7% while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines [3]. - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, with declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the positive changes in March indicate a recovery in the housing market, with expectations for continued improvement in the second quarter [4][5]. - The upcoming quarter is traditionally a slow season for transactions, but the introduction of new quality housing projects is expected to support new home prices and improve market conditions [5].

中金研究 我们认为自2022年以来的美国住宅市场已经走完一个小周期，2025年伴随美国宏观经济的潜在变化也可能出现周期的转折。目前看这种转折具体以何 种形式呈现仍存不确定性，二级市场方面也进入盘整期，等待方向的进一步明确。但结构上，后续我们更建议关注和二手房相关的上下游领域（比如 房产中介、家装零售等）的投资机会，住房成交的修复仍是大方向。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 摘要 美国市场走到哪儿了？ 美国住宅市场处于"高价格、低成交"的类滞胀状态已有两年左右的时间，期间利率的有效下行始终没有实现，而往前看降息节奏 预期的不断降低，甚至整体美国经济进入滞胀的风险边际增加，都可能令市场一直以来企盼的通过降利率来促地产回升的路径愈发脱离现实。而如果未来 的房贷利率就是长期高于目前存量贷款的利率，居民再融资的利差无法有效压降，这确实是一种和过去40年都截然不同的情形（过去40年利率总体处于下 行通道）。如果这一范式成立，后续关注的重点则应该落于资产价格本身是否会做出调整。 怎么看资产价格趋势？ 我们认为若美国经济走弱，不排除房价出现一定负向调整。历史来看，美国房价的变化和整体流动性环境的变化关系密切，202 ...