Market Update - Stocks are higher on Monday, overcoming a soft open, with the market-weighted S&P 500 outperforming the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF [1] - The data center trade received a boost from Nvidia and OpenAI's announcement of a strategic partnership to build and deploy at least 10 gigawatts of AI data centers, with Nvidia investing up to $100 billion in OpenAI [1] Nike Overview - Nike has been added to the watch list as the company seeks to overhaul its strategy after facing significant challenges since late 2021, particularly due to exposure to China's struggling economy [1] - Under former CEO John Donahoe, Nike lost its innovation edge in the direct-to-consumer business, allowing competitors to gain market share, leading to poor results and Donahoe's departure [1] - Nike veteran Elliott Hill has taken over, focusing on core sports categories and restoring relationships with retail partners, including a return to selling on Amazon [1] - The last earnings report in June showed better-than-expected quarterly results, indicating growing confidence in the turnaround [1] - Management expects to exit the first half of fiscal year 2026 with a "healthy and clean" inventory position, crucial for margins ahead of the holiday selling season [1] - Analysts have recently become bullish on Nike, with Cowen and RBC Capital upgrading their ratings to buy from hold, and Baird naming it a "bullish fresh pick" [1]

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Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened positively on September 19, 2025, extending gains from a record-setting Thursday, driven by strength in the technology sector and key corporate announcements [1][2] - The S&P 500 index rose to 6663 points, marking a 0.47% gain from the previous session, up 4.18% over the past month, and 16.84% higher compared to the same time last year [2] - All three major U.S. indexes reached new all-time closing highs on Thursday, indicating broad market strength beyond large-cap tech stocks [3] Corporate News and Stock Movements - Apple (AAPL) shares gained approximately 1% as the new iPhone 17 models went on sale globally, showing strong consumer demand for Pro models [7] - FedEx (FDX) initially jumped over 5% after reinstating its full-year outlook and reporting better-than-expected first-quarter profit and revenue, but later pared most gains [7] - Lennar (LEN) shares declined by 3% after quarterly revenue and profit fell short of analyst expectations, reflecting challenges in the housing sector [7] - Intel (INTC) shares surged nearly 23% on Thursday but were down 0.6% in premarket trading following Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel [11] - Tesla (TSLA) shares surged 22.6% over the past month, indicating strong performance [11] - Darden Restaurants (DRI) dropped 6% as earnings per share missed expectations, despite revenue meeting consensus [11] - Netskope saw its shares end 18% higher in its Nasdaq debut, while StubHub (STUB) stock fell 7% after a challenging debut [11] Economic Events and Indicators - A significant $5 trillion quarterly triple-witching options expiry is scheduled, with expectations of limited market impact [4] - Upcoming economic indicators include Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures and the Federal Reserve's core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [6]

Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut of 2025, lowering the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, indicating a shift in monetary policy amidst inflation risks and slowing employment [3][7]. - Chair Jerome Powell described the current economic environment as a "challenging situation," highlighting persistent inflation risks and rising downside risks to employment [3][7]. - The FOMC confirmed its intention to continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt, with one governor dissenting for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3]. Deutsche Bank Lending Rate Adjustment - Deutsche Bank announced a reduction in its prime lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.25%, effective September 18, 2025, impacting its U.S. operations [4][7]. Puma Takeover Speculation - Puma's shares surged by as much as 16.7% due to reports of a potential takeover bid from private equity firm CVC Capital Partners and Authentic Brands Group, targeting the 29% stake held by the Pinault family's holding company, Artemis [5][7]. - Sources indicated that Artemis is willing to sell their stake at approximately 40 euros per share [5]. Google and PayPal Partnership - Google (Alphabet) and PayPal announced a multiyear strategic partnership aimed at advancing digital commerce solutions, focusing on AI-powered shopping experiences [6][7]. - PayPal's payment solutions will be more deeply integrated across various Google platforms, including Google Cloud, Google Ads, and Google Play [6][8]. Mexican Government Debt Issuance - The Mexican government issued $13.8 billion in new debt to strengthen the financial position of state-owned oil company Pemex, following a $12 billion bond buyback [9]. - The issuance included 5 billion euros in bonds and $8 billion in dollar bonds, with total demand reaching an equivalent of $50.6 billion [9].

Industry Overview - The sportswear industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by secular trends [1] - On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) is highlighted as a strong performer within the industry [1] Investment Analysis - The analysis focuses on identifying undervalued stocks with growth potential, emphasizing a fundamental approach [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **China Consumer** sector, focusing on consumption trends and market dynamics in **2Q25** and the outlook for **2H25** [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Consumption Trends**: - Demand softened in **2Q25**, with unexciting demand continuing into **3Q25**. Some categories like restaurants, sportswear, prepared food, and spirits showed minor sequential improvements in August, attributed to normalizing policy impacts [1][2]. - Companies maintain a prudent outlook due to demand uncertainty, with expectations for significant demand-side stimulus being unlikely in the near term [1]. 2. **Pricing Dynamics**: - There are downside risks to pricing in categories such as sportswear and spirits due to demand softness. The restaurant sector is experiencing intensified pricing activities driven by food delivery subsidies and market education on new categories [1][2]. 3. **Structural Growth Opportunities**: - Continued demand for experience-based consumption, particularly in IP retailers, freshly made drinks, and pet foods [2]. - Opportunities for category expansion and penetration in beverages, cosmetics, and pet foods, with companies like Laopu experiencing upward brand cycles [2]. - Overseas expansion remains a growth opportunity, especially in home appliances, despite demand uncertainties [2]. - Lower-tier cities present untapped potential for various categories [2]. 4. **Sector Preferences**: - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, beverages, and pet food. Least preferred sectors are apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, and non-super-premium spirits [3][8]. 5. **Stock Recommendations**: - Buy recommendations include companies like Anta, Eastroc, Midea, and WH Group, while jewelry has been upgraded to Neutral due to stabilized sentiment [8]. 6. **Market Sentiment**: - The market is showing interest in turnaround themes, with shareholder returns supporting stock prices [2]. Additional Important Content - The macroeconomic environment remains resilient, but consumption-related indicators are muted. The GS macro team anticipates limited significant demand-side stimulus due to the stable GDP numbers [1][9]. - The report highlights a divergence in performance among companies, with stronger brands gaining market share while weaker ones struggle [9]. - The conference call also touches on the impact of policy changes, including temporary interest and childbirth subsidies, which may influence consumer behavior [1]. Conclusion - The China Consumer sector is navigating a challenging landscape with softer demand and pricing pressures. However, structural growth opportunities and strategic sector preferences present potential investment avenues. The outlook remains cautious, with companies focusing on prudent strategies to manage uncertainties in demand and pricing.

Core Viewpoint - Artemis, the holding company of the Pinault family, will not sell its 29% stake in Puma at the current market value and is not in negotiations for a deal, despite previous reports suggesting otherwise [1][2]. Stake and Market Activity - Artemis' stake in Puma is valued at approximately $960 million, and the company has received interest from various potential buyers, including private equity firms and industry peers, but is not currently negotiating any sales [1][2][5]. - Following the August 25 report about potential buyers, Puma shares surged by 15% but have since lost most of those gains [2]. Valuation and Market Performance - A source indicated that Artemis believes Puma is worth significantly more than its current market value, reflecting a strong belief in the brand's potential despite its recent struggles [3]. - Puma's shares have decreased over 60% in value over the past two years due to a loss of market share and challenges in generating interest in new sneaker models [3]. Future Outlook - While Puma may not remain in Artemis' portfolio indefinitely, the timing for a sale is not considered right at present [4]. - The newly appointed CEO of Puma, Arthur Hoeld, has the full confidence of Artemis, and the company does not face any debt maturities in the near term that would necessitate asset sales [6].

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