Company Overview - Nomura Holdings reported a 9.7% decline in fiscal third-quarter profit, attributed to losses in its crypto unit, Laser Digital [1] - The company's net income fell to $590 million for the three months ended December 31 [3] Risk Management - Nomura is tightening risk controls at Laser Digital to reduce risk exposure and limit earnings fluctuations from crypto market volatility [1] - Stricter position management has been implemented to address the challenges posed by the crypto market [1] Market Context - The crypto market experienced a significant flash crash on October 10, leading to over $19 billion in leveraged positions being wiped out, marking the largest deleveraging event in the industry's history [2] - Bitcoin's price fell from a record high of over $126,200 to around $87,000 by year-end, representing a 31% decline [2] - The total crypto market capitalization decreased from approximately $4.3 trillion to just over $3 trillion by year-end [2] Strategic Developments - Laser Digital's Americas division has filed a de novo application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish a national trust bank, aiming to offer asset management services for the digital assets industry [4]

Prediction market participants on Polymarket are assigning a 71% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $65,000 in 2026, as the crypto traded around $75,000 following a weekend sell-off that pushed it to nine-month lows. The bearish sentiment reflects a convergence of technical indicators, underwater ETF positions, and analyst warnings that the market has entered a sustained downturn rather than a temporary correction. Multiple analysts now point to support zones between $62,000 and $65,000 as critica ...

Core Insights - South Korea is enhancing its cryptocurrency market regulation through the implementation of AI tools to detect unfair trading practices [1][5] - The Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) is upgrading its virtual asset trading analysis platform, VISTA, to improve the identification of market manipulation [1][2] Group 1: AI Implementation - VISTA is a core investigative tool that analyzes large volumes of trading data, calculates abnormal indicators, and visualizes trading patterns to support enforcement actions [2] - The FSS has expanded its computing capacity by adding high-performance CPUs and GPUs, enabling AI algorithms to operate on shared and distributed data systems [3] - A new detection algorithm has been developed to automate the identification of suspicious trading activities, which previously required manual review [3] Group 2: Detection and Monitoring - The system analyzes trading activity across various time segments, from seconds to months, to identify manipulation regardless of its duration or fragmentation [4] - The AI surveillance is part of a broader real-time monitoring framework that collaborates with domestic crypto exchanges to scan for signs of wash trading, spoofing, and other irregularities [5] - Suspicious accounts can be flagged for investigation, and authorities are prepared to act even before profits are realized due to recent legal changes [6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - South Korea's regulatory framework is based on existing capital market laws that classify market manipulation, insider trading, and fraudulent transactions as criminal offenses [7] - Offenders under the Financial Investment Services and Capital Markets Act may face imprisonment and substantial fines for illegal gains [7]

Market Overview - Bitcoin was trading at $77,494.65, having fallen as low as $74,876, marking a decline of about 12% over the last seven days, which equates to a loss of more than $200 billion in market value [1] - This decline represents Bitcoin falling below $80,000 for the first time since April 2025 [1] Market Dynamics - The recent drawdown in Bitcoin's price coincided with a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets, influenced by thin weekend liquidity rather than specific crypto developments [2] - U.S. stocks, particularly in the tech sector, experienced declines, with Microsoft shares dropping 10% following disappointing earnings, which contributed to the negative sentiment [2] Global Impact - The negativity from the U.S. market extended to European and Asian stock markets, with gold and silver also experiencing losses [3] - Silver saw a significant drop of 30%, marking its worst day since March 1980 [3] Liquidation Effects - Bitcoin's price decline was exacerbated by forced liquidations, with over $2 billion in long and short positions liquidated since Thursday [3][4] - Liquidations can create a cascading effect in crypto markets, leading to rapid price declines as traders' positions are closed [4] Investor Sentiment - Digital asset investment products recorded outflows totaling $1.7 billion for the second consecutive week, with year-to-date outflows reaching $1 billion, indicating a deterioration in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies [5] - Analysts suggest that the recent selloff in Bitcoin is driven by rising geopolitical risks, declines in tech equities, and a breakdown in precious metals, which have been considered safe-haven assets [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin fell below the $80,000 level following the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, leading to significant deleveraging in crypto markets [1][8] - The market experienced over $2.5 billion in liquidations of leveraged long positions, contributing to downward pressure on Bitcoin and ether [3][8] Market Reactions - Following Warsh's appointment, risk aversion spread across markets, causing equities to weaken and traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver to pull back from recent highs [4] - The market is now pricing in a higher likelihood of earlier policy normalization or tighter conditions under Warsh's leadership, impacting non-yielding assets [4] Technical Analysis - Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $74,500 after breaking key technical support, while ether fell below $2,170 [3] - Higher margin requirements in futures markets accelerated the unwinding of leveraged positions, although Bitcoin has since stabilized above the $74,500 level [5] Sentiment and Positioning - Options markets reflect caution, with positioning skewed towards put protection, although demand for downside hedges has moderated compared to previous stress episodes [5] - Analysts noted that the current price action remains vulnerable, with momentum indicators pointing lower and potential for further liquidation if support levels fail [6] Future Outlook - A sustained break below $74,000 could lead to deeper retracement levels not seen since 2024, while reclaiming $80,000 may stabilize sentiment [7] - Attention is likely to focus on institutional accumulation and geopolitical risks, particularly regarding Iran, as the market navigates these challenges [7]

Crypto 10/10 Crash — Source: CoinGape The October 10, 2025 crypto market crash, which triggered an estimated $19–28 billion in forced deleveraging, is yet again reigniting debate among Web3’s most influential executives. On Oct 1o, crypto experienced a shock that liquidated roughly $19 billion of leveraged positions within hours. During the peak of the event, Binance’s USDe on-venue price briefly dislocated. It reported lows were as near as $0.65 on Binance’s order book, causing  2.2 billion market-cap c ...

🇭🇰 JUST IN: Hong Kong Monetary Authority plans to issue first stablecoin licenses in March, with only a limited number expected initially. https://t.co/B1KLbg0eK2 ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading near $76,000, experiencing a significant sell-off and marking its fourth consecutive month of losses [1][4] - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price coincided with the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve leader, which is perceived as a hawkish move by the markets [2] - Overall, the cryptocurrency market is under pressure, with Bitcoin down over 12% year-to-date and Ether (ETH) down 23%, contributing to a total market value loss of approximately $1.7 trillion, or 39% from last year's peak [4] Market Sentiment and Positioning - Current market flows indicate a meaningful shift in sentiment, with investors not yet positioned to buy the dip, suggesting a cautious approach [3] - The broader downtrend in the market remains intact, and without a clear catalyst, there is little urgency for investors to re-enter [3] - Traders are currently focused on deleveraging and unwinding positions rather than preparing for a potential market rebound [3] Support Levels and Investment Strategy - The mid-$70,000 range is identified as a logical support zone, with $74,000 being the intraday low during a previous sell-off and $76,000 aligning with major holders' cost basis [5] - There is skepticism regarding whether this range represents the definitive low for the year, but it is viewed as increasingly attractive for selective capital redeployment [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - An insider trading lawsuit against several Coinbase directors, including CEO Brian Armstrong, has been allowed to proceed despite an internal investigation clearing them of wrongdoing [2][3]. Group 1: Lawsuit Details - The lawsuit was initiated by an investor in 2023, alleging that the directors used confidential information to avoid over $1 billion in losses by selling approximately $2.9 billion of stock during Coinbase's direct listing in 2021 [2]. - Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick rejected a motion to dismiss the lawsuit due to perceived conflicts of interest within the internal committee that investigated the claims [3]. - The judge noted that the committee's report supports the defendants' defense, suggesting they may ultimately prevail in the lawsuit [3]. Group 2: Coinbase's Response and Industry Context - Coinbase expressed disappointment over the court's decision and reaffirmed its commitment to contest what it describes as meritless claims [5]. - In a separate context, Armstrong discussed the potential of tokenization at the World Economic Forum, emphasizing its role in addressing inefficiencies in the financial system, particularly regarding settlement speed, fees, and access [5][6]. - Armstrong highlighted the global "unbrokered" population of around 4 billion people lacking access to high-quality investment assets, positioning stablecoins as a successful example of tokenization's potential [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's recent sell-off highlights a conflict between long-term investors and signs of structural weaknesses in the crypto market [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - Long-time Bitcoin advocate Robert Kiyosaki views the decline as a buying opportunity, likening it to retail sales where consumers take advantage of discounts [2][3] - Kiyosaki is prepared to invest more, framing the current market conditions as favorable for long-term accumulation [3] - In contrast, experts like CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju caution against optimism, citing a lack of new capital inflows and stagnant Realized Cap as indicators of profit-taking rather than growth [3][4] Group 2: Broader Market Context - The Bitcoin sell-off is part of a larger correction across various asset classes, described by Bull Theory as a chain reaction starting from small-cap equities and the US dollar, affecting stocks, precious metals, and finally crypto markets [5] - The interconnectedness of global markets is emphasized, indicating that the decline was not random but a sequential response to broader market pressures [5] Group 3: Valuation and Future Projections - Despite bearish signals, some quantitative analyses suggest Bitcoin may be undervalued, with a power-law model indicating it is trading approximately 35% below its 15-year trend [6] - This model projects that Bitcoin could rebound to $113,000 by mid-2026 and exceed $160,000 by early 2027, with potential returns over the next 12 months exceeding 100% [7] - The sell-off serves as a reminder that markets frequently test investor conviction and concentration [7]