Bitcoin slipped below the closely watched $80,000 level over the weekend after markets digested confirmation that Kevin Warsh will become the next chair of the Federal Reserve, triggering a wave of deleveraging across crypto markets, according to analysts at QCP Asia. Key Takeaways: Bitcoin broke below $80,000 after Warsh’s Fed appointment triggered broad deleveraging and $2.5 billion in liquidations. Risk-off sentiment spread beyond crypto, pressuring equities and precious metals as markets priced a t ...

Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Equity Index has risen for a second consecutive day and achieved a fifth straight week of gains, marking its longest winning streak since May, with an increase of approximately 7% this year, outperforming the S&P 500's roughly 1% advance [1][12] - The MSCI EM Latin America Index closed at its highest level since 2018 and rose another 1.3% on Friday, resulting in a 7.6% weekly gain [4][5] Investor Sentiment - There is a record pace of cash inflow into emerging-market funds as investors rotate out of US holdings, contributing to a record high for the EM stocks gauge [4][12] - The National Bank of Poland, the world's largest reported gold buyer, has approved plans to purchase an additional 150 tons of gold, indicating strong demand for precious metals [8][13] Currency Movements - Currencies such as the Brazilian real, Colombian peso, and Chilean peso have appreciated by more than 3% this year, reflecting a trend of diversification away from US assets [8][13] - China's central bank has set the yuan's daily reference rate stronger than the 7-per-dollar level for the first time in over two years, signaling a tolerance for the currency's rally [2][12] Regional Developments - The benchmark for Emerging Europe, Middle East, and Africa has risen on all five days of the week, on track for its best month since 2020, indicating a broadening of the rally beyond Asian technology shares [4][12] - Political shifts in Latin America and robust global growth, including an AI spending boom, are contributing to the positive momentum in emerging markets [7][12] Market Outlook - The combined value of emerging markets is nearly $36 trillion, approximately half of the US market valued at $73 trillion, suggesting potential for growth despite geopolitical tensions [11][13] - Themes of de-dollarization and fiscal profligacy are re-emerging, which could positively impact EM risk premia [11][12]

Group 1: Cryptocurrency Market Trends - Metaplanet has completed a bearish-to-bullish reversal after an 82% drawdown from its June highs, contrasting with MicroStrategy, which continues to struggle near lows [1] - Monero has formed a decade-long ascending triangle and is poised for higher prices, especially as the privacy-coin narrative gains traction [1] - The cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a phase of institutional adoption, with major financial institutions laying the groundwork for continued involvement [10] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Actions - President Trump's upcoming replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to initiate a rate-cutting cycle starting in the second quarter, with total Fed assets rising again after the end of quantitative tightening [3] - Following a stronger-than-expected unemployment report, market-implied rate odds for the January FOMC meeting have shifted towards a "no cut" stance, aligning with the Fed's focus on labor data [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Technical Analysis - Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, forming a double bottom pattern that could target the $100k+ region [7] - Despite a bearish cross in hash ribbons indicating potential weakness, both hashrate and hash ribbons are stabilizing, suggesting a possible inflection point [9] - Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative, with approximately $700 million in outflows reported in the past week [7] Group 4: Blockchain Ecosystem Developments - The 2025 crypto market is characterized by a widening gap between activity and price performance, with total value locked (TVL) increasing in seven of eight ecosystems covered [11][12] - Ethereum's fundamentals have strengthened despite underperformance in price, with increased TVL and stablecoin supply, while Layer 1 revenue has fallen sharply [13] - Solana has seen elevated on-chain usage and a significant expansion in stablecoin market capitalization, although price volatility continues [14] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The ratio of Solana ecosystem token volumes over SOL volumes on centralized exchanges has increased over 40%, indicating a return of risk appetite among investors [18] - Application-level monetization and institutional utility are becoming more significant in determining performance across crypto markets [18]

Core Insights - November experienced increased market volatility, concerns over high valuations, and uncertainty regarding monetary policy, yet North American equities managed to finish positively for the seventh consecutive month, driven by solid earnings and expectations of continued Fed policy easing [1][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index recorded a modest gain of 0.25% in November, marking its worst performance since April, after spending most of the month in negative territory [2] - Canadian equities outperformed, with the TSX Composite Total Return Index rising by 3.9%, led by the Materials sector [5] Economic Indicators - Investors faced mixed economic data, the lingering impact of the U.S. government shutdown, and concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven capital spending, particularly affecting the tech sector, which saw a decline of 4.4% despite strong earnings [3][4] - The U.S. labor market is perceived to be weakening, while inflation appears controlled, allowing the Fed to consider further easing [6] Future Outlook - December typically favors equities, but current elevated valuations and uncertainties regarding AI investments may limit potential gains, despite strong earnings fundamentals and seasonal support [7] - The overall economic environment remains stable, with inflation trends being mildly lower, which has kept bond yields rangebound [9]

Investment Strategy - BlackRock is increasing its allocation to US equities within its $185 billion model-portfolio platform [1] - The move comes amid investor uncertainty regarding the sustainability of the AI-driven market rally this year [1]

Market Performance & Key Drivers - Japanese equities experienced a stellar year, with momentum increasing after the US-Japan trade deal announcement [1][2] - The Nikkei 225 surged, particularly in the last three months, driven by growth stories in sectors like defense, autos, and semiconductors [3] - Political transition, specifically the appointment of a fiscal expansionist prime minister, boosted market sentiment [2][3] US-Japan Trade & Investment - Focus is on potential deals around defense and further trade negotiations concerning semiconductors [5] - The US investment fund's potential investment in Japanese pipelines is being viewed favorably due to the good relationship between the two countries [5] Fiscal Policy & Economic Impact - Fiscal expansion is expected to positively impact Japanese stocks in the medium term [5] - The administration aims to boost consumption and cap inflation, especially in rural economies, through targeted fiscal expansion [8] - The administration acknowledges the need to address structural growth issues and debt problems in the long term [7][8]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net revenues of $15.2 billion for Q3 2025, with earnings per share of $12.25 and a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% [2][13] - Year-to-date ROE improved to 14.6% and 15.6% [2] - The company returned $3.3 billion to shareholders, including $1.3 billion in dividends and $2 billion in stock repurchases [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Banking & Markets generated revenues of $10.1 billion, with an ROE of 17% year-to-date [13] - Advisory revenues reached $1.4 billion, up 60% year-over-year, reflecting increased M&A activity [13] - Equity underwriting revenues increased by 21% year-over-year to $465 million, driven by a rise in IPO activity [14] - Debt underwriting revenues rose 30% to $788 million, primarily due to higher leveraged finance activity [14] - FICC net revenues were $3.5 billion, up 17% year-over-year, with strong performance in rates, mortgages, and commodities [15] - Asset and wealth management revenues totaled $4.4 billion, with management and other fees up 12% year-over-year to a record $2.9 billion [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company advised on over $1 trillion in announced M&A volumes for 2025 year-to-date, significantly ahead of competitors [2] - Sponsor activity is tracking 40% higher compared to the previous year, with over $1 trillion in dry powder available [4] - Assets under supervision reached a record $3.5 trillion, with $80 billion in net market appreciation and $56 billion in long-term net inflows [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on leveraging AI to enhance operational efficiency and drive growth through the "One Goldman Sachs 3.0" initiative [10][11] - The acquisition of Industry Ventures aims to enhance the company's venture capital capabilities and strengthen its asset management platform [8][9] - The company is optimistic about the investment banking outlook, expecting an upswing in activity over the next 12 to 24 months [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the firm's ability to navigate the current economic environment, emphasizing disciplined risk management [6][19] - The regulatory environment is improving, which is expected to enhance the company's competitive positioning [44] - The company anticipates continued growth in asset and wealth management, with expectations of raising approximately $100 billion in alternatives this year [7][16] Other Important Information - The company is committed to maintaining a strong risk management culture, particularly in light of recent market volatility [38] - The effective tax rate for the year-to-date was 21.5%, with an expected full-year rate of approximately 22% [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on risk management and synthetic risk transfer - Management clarified that their approach to synthetic risk transfer (SRT) remains unchanged, focusing on dynamic risk management of credit exposures [25][26] Question: Clarification on One Goldman Sachs 3.0 initiative - Management explained that the initiative is driven by advancements in technology, aiming to enhance efficiency and scalability, not due to revenue issues [30][32] Question: Concerns about private credit risks - Management reassured that their lending practices are robust, with a diversified portfolio and strong risk management processes in place [36][38] Question: Expectations around regulatory changes - Management indicated that regulatory improvements are expected to enhance competitive positioning, with significant progress anticipated in the coming months [42][44] Question: Opportunities for growth in wealth and asset management - Management emphasized a focus on enhancing returns in asset and wealth management, with strategic acquisitions to strengthen the platform [50][68] Question: Insights on equities business performance - Management acknowledged softer performance in cash equities but highlighted strong overall performance in the equities platform [55][56] Question: Risk management around collateral integrity - Management reiterated the importance of stringent underwriting standards and ongoing monitoring to ensure collateral integrity [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights the current investment landscape, focusing on fixed income and equities, with an emphasis on the potential for longer duration investments and opportunities in the equity market despite economic slowdowns. Fixed Income - The securitized sector is trading cheaply, and there is an expectation for duration extension as the market enters a cycle of easing [2][6] - Investors are likely to seek longer duration elements such as mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities [4][6] - The JAA ETF, which provides AAA collateralized loan obligation (CLO) exposure, is highlighted as a safe investment with a good spread, currently crossing $25 billion in assets [6] - CLOs are considered safer than corporate bonds if appropriately rated, with improvements in rating accuracy since the 2008 financial crisis [8] - Yield expectations range from mid-single to high-single digit yields, with specific mention of 7% yields for triple B rated investments [10][12] Equities - There are significant opportunities in the equity market, particularly in companies that have been undervalued or pushed to high valuations [13][15] - The recent performance of Oracle, which saw a 40% increase in a week, exemplifies the potential for substantial gains in large-cap stocks [14] - Investors are focusing on innovative sectors that can navigate geopolitical tensions, with strong interest in healthcare and technology [15][16] - Small and mid-cap stocks are viewed as undervalued and have the potential to deliver significant returns despite a slowing economy [17]

U.S. equities turned lower at midday after initially rising as the latest jobs report showed hiring slowed more than expected in August. https://t.co/7of233iYnb ...

Market Trends - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is on pace to close at an all-time high [1] - Investors are piling into US equities [1] Driving Factors - Strong corporate earnings are driving the market [1] - Ebbing trade and geopolitical fears are contributing to the market rise [1]