Core Insights - The CNBC Fed survey reveals significant disagreement among respondents regarding the Federal Reserve's actions and the implications of President Trump's influence on Fed independence [2][3][4] Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - 97% of respondents expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, but only 41% believe this is the appropriate action [2][5] - 41% of respondents think a 50 basis point cut is warranted, while 28% believe the Fed should not cut rates at all [5] - The current year-end funds rate for 2025 is projected at 3.6%, down 30 basis points from the previous survey, with a further drop to 3.13% for 2026 [6] Group 2: Concerns Over Fed Independence - 82% of respondents believe President Trump is attempting to limit or eliminate Federal Reserve independence, with 41% indicating a desire to limit it and another 41% wanting to eliminate it [3][4] - 68% believe that these presidential actions will lead to higher inflation, while 57% think it will result in higher unemployment [4] - 74% of respondents anticipate a lower value of the US dollar as a consequence of these actions [5] Group 3: Future Fed Leadership - Among the 29 respondents, 45% believe President Trump will appoint Chris Waller as the next Fed Chair, while 24% favor Worsh and 17% favor Hasset [13] - The process for selecting the next Fed Chair is described as transparent, with the Treasury Secretary actively interviewing potential candidates [17][18] - The survey indicates a growing interest in the implications of Fed leadership on future policy decisions [15]

Central Banks and Economic Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to slow its balance sheet rundown due to recent market turbulence, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization [3] - The Federal Reserve's reverse repo operation involved 16 counterparties taking $16.954 billion, reflecting ongoing dynamics in short-term money markets [4][8] Technological Advancements - OpenAI has released GPT-5 Codex, an advanced language model that promises enhanced capabilities in coding, writing, and complex reasoning, potentially revolutionizing professional tasks [5][8] Housing Market Initiatives - FHFA Director Pulte has directed Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) to increase housing supply to address the ongoing housing shortage in the U.S., signaling a strategic effort to inject more inventory into the market [6][8] Semiconductor Industry Stability - STMicroelectronics (STM) has confirmed to the Italian government that it is not planning redundancies at its Agrate plant, providing stability for the local workforce amidst broader industry challenges [7][8] - The company is committed to its investment plans in Italy, including plans to double production capacity at the site by 2027 [9]

Federal Reserve's Role and Policy - The Federal Reserve is perceived to have become too powerful and political, with calls for fundamental changes to its operations [3][4][6] - There is a concern that restrictive interest rates imposed by the Fed inhibit access to capital for the private sector, particularly during economic transformations favoring small and medium-sized businesses [6][7] - The Fed's actions during financial crises, such as in 2008, are questioned, with a belief that it failed to foresee the crisis and that its independence is crucial for effective crisis management [10][11][17] Interest Rates and Economic Impact - The current low-interest-rate environment is debated, with suggestions that it may have persisted too long and that the Fed's role in managing interest rates is not appropriate for a free market economy [19][21][22] - The Fed's approach to monetary policy is criticized for exacerbating wealth and income inequality, leading to societal resentment [25] Banking Sector Dynamics - Banks are under pressure to maintain high reserves rather than lending, which affects their profitability and relationships with clients [8][9] - The profitability of banks is linked to their ability to manage cash reserves effectively, which complicates their willingness to adjust to changes in Fed policy [9] Political Influence and Independence - The politicization of the Fed is a concern, as political pressures can complicate its ability to act independently during crises [10][20] - Historical examples, such as Paul Volcker's actions in the 1980s, illustrate the challenges faced by central banks when political interests conflict with necessary economic measures [14][16]

Group 1 - The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has indicated that record global share prices are increasingly disconnected from rising concerns about government debt levels in bond markets [1][2] - Moody's has downgraded the United States to a non-triple A status, and Fitch has cut France's rating to its lowest ever level due to concerns about government finances [2] - The head of BIS' Monetary and Economic Department, Hyun Song Shin, warned about the elevated valuations of risky assets, which leave them vulnerable to market stress [2][3] Group 2 - Government bond issuance is being absorbed by highly-leveraged investors like hedge funds, which could lead to market eruptions before debt levels exceed sustainability definitions [3] - Despite some non-U.S. investors selling U.S. bonds and stocks in April, most of these flows reversed in May and June, indicating a gradual shift away from U.S. assets [4] - The BIS noted that the significant holdings of U.S. assets by global investors and the slow pace of strategic asset allocation suggest any major portfolio shifts will be gradual [4] Group 3 - A new global survey by the BIS on public inflation expectations shows that the post-COVID spike in prices has raised household inflation expectations, particularly in countries with the largest increases [5][6] - The BIS expressed concerns about the lasting effects of temporary inflation surges, noting that households generally do not blame central banks for inflation issues [6] - There is a cooling of the real economy, particularly in the U.S. labor market, as indicated by Shin [6]

India‘s central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates as inflation shows signs of bottoming out, Pimco says https://t.co/XmT1XsheZk ...

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) has left interest rates unchanged at 2%, having halved them from 4% over the past year, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts amid uncertain economic conditions [1][2]. - Policymakers, including France's central bank governor, have suggested that further rate cuts are possible in upcoming meetings, emphasizing that there is no predetermined path for monetary policy [2][5]. - The ECB's latest projections indicate a decline in inflation from approximately 2% currently to 1.7% next year and 1.9% by 2027, influenced by factors such as cheaper energy and a stronger euro [3]. Group 2 - Risks to inflation include potential delays in the European Union's new carbon trading system, which could add 0.3 percentage points to inflation projections, as well as deflationary pressures from Chinese imports [4]. - The upcoming December meeting of the ECB is highlighted as a critical point for updating inflation projections and assessing whether inflation is deviating from the bank's 2% target [4]. - Money markets currently reflect a low likelihood of further rate cuts in the near term, with only a slight chance of reductions towards the summer of next year [5].

Group 1 - The Trump administration is seeking to expedite the legal process regarding the firing of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, aiming for a quick resolution from the appeals court before the Fed's board meeting [1][2][3]. - Cook's participation in the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is at risk if the appeals court grants an administrative stay, which could disrupt the vote on interest rates [2][3]. - The Justice Department argues that Trump's actions to remove Cook are justified and that the appeal is likely to succeed, claiming there are no materially disputed facts regarding the allegations against her [5][8][9]. Group 2 - The case centers around a ruling by US District Judge Jia Cobb, who stated that Trump likely did not have sufficient cause to fire Cook and violated her due process rights [4][9]. - Allegations against Cook include claims of mortgage fraud related to her primary residence listings, which Trump cited as grounds for her dismissal [7][8]. - Cook contends that the attempt to remove her is politically motivated and could damage public trust in the Federal Reserve and the US economy [8].

Andi Rice / Bloomberg via Getty Images Raphael Bostic and his fellow Fed voters are expected to put their focus on the labor market at their meeting next week. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve is tasked with keeping inflation low and employment high. Investors are certain the Fed will cut rates at its meeting next week after two reports Thursday. Thursday's inflation report showed inflation ticked up in line with expectations. Experts say it's unlikely to be a large enough move to deter the Federal ...

FRANKFURT, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected but offered no clues about its next move, even as investors continue to bet that more support will be needed as inflation dips below target next year. Following are highlights of ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments at a news conference after the policy meeting. MORE ON THE BALANCE OF RISKS "If you walk back to June, we had a highly uncertain situation. It was post April 19, sure, but it ...

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged [1] - Current inflation is around the 2% medium-term target, with the inflation outlook remaining broadly unchanged [1][2] - The ECB's new staff projections indicate headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2] - The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from 0.9% expected in June, with growth projections for 2026 and 2027 at 1.0% and 1.3% respectively [2] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Key ECB interest rates remain unchanged at 2.00% for the deposit facility, 2.15% for main refinancing operations, and 2.40% for the marginal lending facility [4] - The Governing Council will follow a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, assessing inflation outlook and economic data [3][5] - The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address disorderly market dynamics that threaten monetary policy transmission across euro area countries [6]