Core Insights - Sin stocks, representing companies in industries like alcohol, tobacco, cannabis, and gambling, have consistently outperformed broader markets due to strong cash flows and inelastic demand [2][4][11] Industry Overview - The U.S. alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $544.19 billion in 2024 to $709.13 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 5.4% [8] - The global tobacco market is expected to increase from $921.4 billion in 2024 to $1,198.4 billion by 2035, reflecting a CAGR of 2.3% from 2025 to 2035 [9] - The global online gambling market was valued at $78.66 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11.9% from 2025 to 2030 [10] Company Insights - Molson Coors (TAP) is focusing on market share growth through innovation and premiumization in the alcohol sector [7] - Boyd Gaming (BYD) is enhancing growth through property upgrades and strategic investments in the gambling industry [7] - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is transforming towards a smoke-free future, aiming for a majority of its revenue from reduced-risk products by 2030 [13][15] - MGM Resorts International (MGM) is well-positioned to capitalize on the recovery of the gaming and tourism industries, with a strong digital strategy through BetMGM [17][18] - Diageo Plc (DEO) is focusing on premiumization and innovation, with a strong portfolio of iconic brands and a strategy to enhance direct-to-consumer engagement [20][21][22]

Core Viewpoint - MGM Resorts International is expected to report a decline in earnings and revenues for the first quarter of 2025, with various factors influencing its performance, including strong domestic demand and macroeconomic challenges [1][2][6]. Financial Performance Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 50 cents, reflecting a 32.4% decrease from 74 cents in the same quarter last year [1]. - The consensus revenue estimate is approximately $4.27 billion, indicating a 2.5% decline from the previous year's figure [2]. Factors Influencing Performance - MGM's first-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from robust domestic demand trends, strong Las Vegas operations, strategic convention bookings, and growth in digital platforms like BetMGM [3]. - Event-driven demand around the Super Bowl and January conventions is expected to have positively impacted performance, with Las Vegas operations' Average Daily Rates projected to grow in the mid-single digits, supported by record January occupancy levels of 94% [4]. Regional Operations and Bookings - The strong group bookings pipeline, enhanced by collaboration with Marriott and improvements to the Mandalay Bay Convention Center, is likely to support performance [5]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues from regional operations rooms is $67 million, slightly up from $66 million reported in the prior-year quarter [5]. Challenges and Headwinds - Persistent macroeconomic challenges, including inflation, competitive labor markets, and foreign currency fluctuations, are expected to negatively impact performance [6]. - Soft contributions from casino, rooms, and food and beverage sectors are anticipated, with estimated revenues of $2.2 billion, $937 million, and $740 million respectively, compared to higher figures in the prior-year quarter [7]. Cost Pressures - Elevated pre-opening costs related to MGM Grand hotel renovations and international expansion, particularly in Brazil, are likely to exert margin pressure [8]. - First-quarter EBITDAR growth in Las Vegas may be affected by an estimated $65 million year-over-year Super Bowl headwind and temporary room disruptions from renovation projects [8]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for MGM Resorts, as it lacks a positive Earnings ESP and holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - Las Vegas Sands Corp. reported first-quarter 2025 results with earnings and revenues missing expectations, attributed to a challenging macro environment [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 were 59 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 60 cents by 1.7%, down from 73 cents in the same quarter last year [3] - Quarterly net revenues totaled $2.86 billion, falling short of the consensus mark of $2.88 billion and declining 3.3% year over year [4] Asian Operations - The Venetian Macao reported net revenues of $638 million, down from $771 million year-over-year, primarily due to decreased casino revenues [5] - The Londoner Macao's net revenues were $529 million, down from $562 million, with declines in casino, rooms, and food and beverage revenues [9] - The Parisian Macao's net revenues were $227 million, slightly down from $230 million, with stable revenues from rooms and food and beverage [13] - The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao saw net revenues increase to $208 million from $142 million, attributed to higher casino and rooms revenues [15] Operational Metrics - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Venetian Macao was $225 million, down from $314 million year-over-year [7] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Londoner Macao was $153 million, down from $172 million [11] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Parisian Macao was $66 million, compared to $71 million last year [14] - Adjusted property EBITDA for the Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Macao increased to $74 million from $36 million [16] Marina Bay Sands Performance - Marina Bay Sands in Singapore reported net revenues of $1.16 billion, up from $1.15 billion year-over-year, supported by increased room and mall revenues [20] - Adjusted property EBITDA for Marina Bay Sands was $605 million, up from $597 million [22] Consolidated Financials - On a consolidated basis, adjusted property EBITDA totaled $1.14 billion in Q1 2025, down from $1.21 billion in the previous year [23] - As of March 31, 2025, unrestricted cash balances were $3.04 billion, down from $3.65 billion in the previous quarter, while total debt outstanding increased to $13.71 billion from $13.62 billion [24]

Group 1: Share Buyback Programs - Several major firms have announced significant new share buyback programs as Q1 2025 concludes, with three stocks having buyback capacity of 8% or more of their market capitalizations [1] - Applied Materials has authorized a $10 billion share buyback program, bringing its total buyback capacity to $17.6 billion, which is nearly 14% of its $126 billion market capitalization [1] - Churchill Downs has approved a $500 million share repurchase program, resulting in a total buyback capacity of $626 million, approximately 8% of its $8 billion market capitalization [6] - DICK'S Sporting Goods announced a $3 billion share buyback program, giving it a total buyback capacity of approximately $3.51 billion, equal to 22% of its nearly $16 billion market capitalization [11][12] Group 2: Dividend Increases - Applied Materials announced a significant dividend increase of 15%, raising the payment to $0.46 per share, with a yield of 1.2% [4] - DICK'S Sporting Goods also raised its dividend by 10%, planning to pay a total of $4.85 over the next four quarters, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.5% [14] Group 3: Financial Performance and Metrics - Applied Materials has repurchased $4.4 billion worth of shares over the last four quarters, but the timing of these purchases was not optimal as the current share price is 19% lower than the average repurchase price of $192 [2][3] - Churchill Downs has repurchased $216 million worth of shares in the last 12 months, which is moderately above its average repurchase pace of $187 million over the past decade [7] - DICK'S Sporting Goods spent $268 million on share buybacks in fiscal 2024, below its average annual buyback pace of $430 million over the past 10 years, with the current share price being 8% lower than the average price paid for shares [13]