金元证券近日发布电子行业深度报告：根据中国信通院统计，全球量子计算科研论文数 量从2015年的1000余篇增长至2024年的5000余篇。其中，2019年进入"加速期"，2020-2021 年年增长量约500篇，2024年同比增长42%。从发文量区域划分来看，美国和中国占据前两 位，远超其他国家。 以下为研究报告摘要： 当前量子计算机包括量子退火机、量子模拟机、量子仿真机等专用量子计算机过渡至通 用NISQ，未来将发展至通用计算领域，技术路线上则包括超导、离子阱、光量子、中性/冷 原子等。超导技术路线最为成熟，且具有：量子逻辑门操作时间短、有机会凭借半导体行业 现有的知识和制造基础来帮助扩展量子比特数量等优势，但系统需要稀释制冷机来维持极低 的温度，并且量子态容易坍缩。代表企业包括IBM、Google、中电信量子集团、北京量子信 息科学研究院、本源量子、国盾量子、量旋科技等，其他技术路线中，量子阱、中性原子、 光量子空间仍大。 光子学（Photonics）对量子技术的发展至关重要，因为激光和其他光子器件被广泛应用 于离子阱、光量子及中性原子等技术领域。具体而言，离子阱、冷原子和金刚石氮空位色心 量子比特实现方 ...

周四美股早盘尾声时，美国商务部发言人对媒体表示：“商务部目前并未与量子计算公司就股权进行谈判。”此前《华尔街日报》报道，包括IonQ、Rigetti Computing和D-Wave Quantum在内的多家公司，正在与美国商务部就此展开谈判。作为获得专项技术资金的协议的一部分，政府将成为这些公司的股东。 ...

Group 1 - Google CEO Sundar Pichai announced significant progress in quantum algorithms on the Willow chip, achieving the first verifiable quantum advantage algorithm, which is 13,000 times faster than the best supercomputer [1] - The algorithm, named "Quantum Echoes," utilizes nuclear magnetic resonance to explain interactions between atoms in molecules, potentially paving the way for applications in drug development and materials science [1] - The research paper features Michel Devoret, a Nobel Prize winner, highlighting the foundational work in macroscopic quantum effects that contributed to this study [1] Group 2 - The algorithm's results can be replicated or confirmed through experiments by other quantum computers, marking an important step towards practical applications of quantum computing [1] - According to Google's strategic roadmap, the company has achieved key milestones in "super-classical quantum computing" and "quantum error correction prototypes," but significant distance remains before launching a "large-scale error-corrected quantum computer" [1] - Quantum computing is still in the early stages of technological development, with substantial progress expected in the next 5 to 10 years, as noted by reports from IBM and the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology [3] Group 3 - In China, there is a combination of policy and technological advantages in quantum computing, with significant achievements in research exemplified by "Zuchongzhi No. 3" and advancements in industrial applications by companies like GuoDun Quantum [3] - The global quantum race is accelerating, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to enhance support for quantum information investments [3] - The commercialization of quantum information is entering a new accelerated phase, with the U.S. and China leading globally, and breakthroughs in quantum error correction significantly impacting the progress of quantum computing [3]

Core Insights - The Trump administration is negotiating with U.S. quantum computing companies for equity stakes in exchange for federal funding [1][2] - Companies involved include IonQ Inc., Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum, with discussions led by U.S. Deputy Commerce Secretary Paul Dabbar [2][3] - Funding awards are expected to start at $10 million each, with other firms like Quantum Computing Inc. and Atom Computing considering similar arrangements [3] Government Involvement - The U.S. government previously acquired nearly a 10% stake in Intel by converting $9 billion in grants into equity [5] - The Department of Defense gained a roughly 15% stake in MP Materials, potentially making it the largest shareholder [6] Industry Developments - Microsoft has demonstrated advancements in practical quantum computing, indicating that significant breakthroughs may occur in the near future [7] - Other major players like Google and IBM are also reporting accelerated progress in quantum computing technology [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is not negotiating equity stakes in U.S. quantum computing firms, countering a report that suggested potential investments in companies like IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum [1][2][11] Group 1: Government's Position on Quantum Computing Investments - The Commerce Department confirmed that it is not currently in talks to take equity stakes in quantum computing companies [1] - This statement follows a Wall Street Journal report that claimed the administration was considering investments to enhance the U.S. technological edge against China [2] - The White House reiterated that it is not in discussions with the companies mentioned in the Journal's report [11] Group 2: Context of Quantum Computing Industry - Quantum computing is recognized as a significant emerging technology with implications for defense and artificial intelligence, with analysts predicting viable commercial machines within five years [5] - Global revenue for quantum computing was reported to be under $750 million in 2024, with most U.S. federal investment focused on research grants and public-private partnerships rather than equity stakes [6] - The government has previously taken equity stakes in other technology firms, such as a 10% stake in Intel and a 15% stake in MP Materials, indicating a cautious approach to direct ownership in frontier technologies [5][9]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI) has seen its shares increase by over 2,800% in the past year due to excitement surrounding its quantum computing advancements, but concerns about its weak fundamentals and high valuation persist [1][8] Group 1: Quantum Technology Developments - Rigetti's 36-qubit quantum system achieved 99.5% accuracy in key operations, aiming for a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by year-end [1] - The company signed a $5.8 million deal with the U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory to develop quantum networking technology and received orders for two 9-qubit Novera quantum computing systems worth nearly $5.7 million [2] - Capital is flowing into the quantum computing sector, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. planning to invest about $10 billion in innovative fields, including quantum computing, which has positively impacted Rigetti's stock [3] Group 2: Financial Performance and Valuation - Rigetti's operating losses increased by 24% year over year to $19.8 million in Q2, while revenues fell by 42% to $1.8 million [6] - The company's forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at an astronomical 1,348.30, compared to the Internet - Software industry's 6.28, indicating vulnerability to market corrections [7] Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - Rigetti's business model, which includes its own quantum processing units (QPUs), programming language, and Quantum Cloud Services (QCS) platform, provides a competitive edge [5] - Despite ongoing contracts and breakthroughs, the uncertainty of sustaining explosive growth remains, especially with competition from larger players like Alphabet Inc. and IBM [6][7] - Overall, there are indications that RGTI stock may be a bubble, with risk-averse investors advised to avoid it, while risk-takers might consider potential growth opportunities [9]

Core Insights - IonQ shares experienced a significant rally of up to 13% on October 23, following reports of the White House's interest in investing in quantum computing firms [1] - The Trump administration is reportedly willing to offer at least $10 million in federal grants in exchange for equity stakes in these companies, indicating a national priority for quantum computing [3] Federal Support Significance - The potential federal support is seen as bullish for IonQ shares, highlighting the government's long-term commitment to the quantum computing sector, comparable to semiconductors and artificial intelligence [3] - Although the $10 million grant may seem modest, it could attract more institutional capital to IonQ, enhancing its position in the rapidly growing quantum technologies market [4] Stock Performance and Projections - Following recent gains, IonQ stock is trading at over three times its price from early March [2] - Options data suggests that IonQ shares could continue to rise, with projections indicating a potential rally to above $80 within the next three months [5] - The expected price movement through the end of October is 13.57%, with an upper bound currently set at $68 [5] Technical Progress and Revenue Growth - IonQ has made impressive technical advancements this year, achieving record-breaking fidelity levels and an 82% year-over-year increase in Q2 revenue, supporting the case for further stock price appreciation [6] Market Sentiment - Wall Street firms currently view IonQ shares as an attractive long-term investment opportunity [7]

Group 1 - The Trump administration has denied current negotiations for equity stakes in quantum computing companies such as IonQ, Rigetti Computing, and D-Wave Quantum, yet shares in these companies rose [1] - The term "currently" in the statement leaves room for future discussions, and "equity" may indicate alternative deal structures, such as warrants allowing the government to purchase shares at a predetermined price later [2] - Rigetti Computing emphasized ongoing engagement with the U.S. government regarding funding opportunities, highlighting the importance of U.S. leadership in quantum breakthroughs for national security [3]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is demonstrating early commercial traction with approximately $5.7 million in purchase orders for its Novera quantum processing units (QPUs) and related services, indicating validation of its hardware capabilities after extensive R&D investment [1][7] - The company secured a $5.8 million award from the Air Force Research Laboratory in collaboration with QphoX, positioning Rigetti at the forefront of quantum networking [2][7] - Despite uneven quarterly revenues, these developments suggest a turning point for Rigetti, as its technology is being adopted rather than merely tested [3][7] Company Developments - Rigetti's recent contracts and partnerships highlight a successful alignment of technological innovation with commercial opportunities, showcasing growing institutional confidence in its manufacturing and chip-packaging capabilities [2] - The deployment of two Novera systems to an Asian tech manufacturer and a California AI startup marks Rigetti's most significant commercialization milestone to date, with deployments scheduled for the first half of 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance - Rigetti's shares have increased by 136.3% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the industry growth of 19.2% [6] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rigetti's 2025 earnings indicates a substantial 86.1% increase compared to the previous year [10] Valuation Metrics - Rigetti is currently trading at a price-to-book ratio of 21.13, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [8]

Well, a Trump administration official now denying an earlier report from the Wall Street Journal that said the Commerce Department is in talks with some quantum computing companies for equity stakes in exchange for funding. Quantum stocks took a dip but still higher today despite that denial. Christina Parts and Levis Partzene has more in today's tech check.Hi, Christina. >> It's been a roller coaster with this story, but like you said, the Trump administration is really pouring cold water on a report about ...