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“妖王”惠城环保3年15倍,扣非连亏两季谁托起了逾2000倍的估值?
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-02 11:31
Core Viewpoint - The valuation of Huicheng Environmental Protection is significantly inflated, with a TTM P/E ratio of 2468 and an estimated P/E ratio of 184 for 2025, while the average P/E ratio for the environmental sector is around 48 [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Huicheng Environmental Protection's stock price has surged over 15 times since November 2022, making it the top-performing stock in the A-share market during this period [1][2]. - The stock experienced a 28.33% increase in the last two weeks of May, despite a general market downturn, indicating a potential topping pattern [2]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 77.52%, with monthly gains exceeding 20% in most months [2]. Group 2: Business Model and Market Position - The company specializes in solid waste treatment and disposal services, focusing on the processing and recycling of waste catalysts for refining enterprises [2][3]. - Huicheng Environmental Protection's business model includes waste catalyst treatment, resource recycling, and sales of recycled catalysts [2]. Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported a significant revenue increase in 2023, achieving 1.071 billion yuan, a 194.76% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 138 million yuan, a 55-fold increase [6]. - However, the company has faced profitability challenges in 2024, with a projected revenue of 1.149 billion yuan, a 7.33% increase, but a net profit decline of 69.25% [7]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a continued net loss of 10.336 million yuan, with revenue down 4.27% to 285 million yuan [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The environmental protection sector has seen a rise in interest due to policy catalysts, but Huicheng Environmental Protection's performance is not aligned with its stock price [3][6]. - The company's reliance on the refining catalyst business is concerning, as demand for refined oil is declining due to the rise of electric vehicles and regional economic pressures [7]. - The company is attempting to diversify by developing a waste plastic recycling project, which is still in the preparatory phase and has uncertain revenue contributions [7].