【环球时报驻法国特派记者 尚凯元 环球时报特约记者 岳雯】编者的话：法国政坛今秋再度陷入紧张。 勒科尔尼总理一个月内经历数次权力"过山车"，其领导的新政府上周勉强挺过不信任动议投票，但将于 10月24日开始的2026年预算案审议，仍如巨石般悬在马克龙总统带领的中间阵营的头顶。自2017年 以"超越左右"姿态打破传统党派格局，马克龙领导的中间派一度成为法国政治权力中枢。但在2022年、 2024年两次国民议会选举后，中间派政府陷入"悬浮执政"困境，左、中、右集团"三足鼎立"，中间派政 治力量逐步消减、丧失主导地位。近两年，法国政府已更换5位总理。在欧洲，有悲观者担忧，法国政 局不稳不仅削弱其自身，也危及欧洲凝聚力；但也有乐观声音认为，政坛震荡反而为法国提供了重塑政 治文化的契机。 " 削减赤字 " 和 " 安抚民意 " 的不等式 10月16日，法国总理勒科尔尼在国民议会投票中以18票之差险些被罢免，勉强躲过两项不信任动议。此 前他在短短一个月内已经历了数次权力"过山车"：9月9日被总统马克龙任命为总理，10月6日因组阁受 阻递交辞呈，10月10日再度受命组建"勒科尔尼二世政府"。如今虽暂保职位，却仍需闯过10月 ...

Political Instability - France is experiencing unprecedented political turmoil, with five prime ministers in less than two years, leading to governance issues and a fragmented political landscape [1][3] - The current prime minister, Le Cornu, faces significant challenges in passing the budget due to a divided parliament, which has resulted in a systemic paralysis of the government [3][10] Economic Concerns - France's public debt has surpassed €3 trillion, equating to 114% of GDP, with interest payments expected to reach €67 billion this year, exceeding the budgets of all government departments except for education and defense [3][4] - Rating agency Fitch has downgraded France's credit rating, increasing borrowing costs and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4] Social Unrest - A wave of protests has emerged, with unions mobilizing over 500,000 people against budget cuts perceived as unfair, particularly targeting welfare and education while the wealthy continue to benefit from tax breaks [6][7] - The protests have escalated into significant disruptions in public services, with one-sixth of teachers participating in strikes and power generation reduced by approximately 4,000 megawatts [6] Political Negotiations - The left-wing Socialist Party has seized the opportunity to demand significant budget changes, including halving budget cuts and introducing a 2% tax on wealth exceeding €100 million, creating a standoff with the right-wing and business associations [10] - The government must navigate a complex political landscape where satisfying one faction risks alienating another, making it difficult to pass the budget [10][11] Future Outlook - While some economists express cautious optimism about France's economic fundamentals, others warn of a potential collapse if political reforms are not enacted [11] - The ability of the government to break the budget deadlock and restore public confidence will be crucial in determining whether France can avoid becoming the "sick man of Europe" [11]