特朗普今年重返白宫后启动的新关税政策已对几十个国家征收高额关税，这些关税在4月宣布、7月正式 生效后，于夏季开始显著贡献财政收入。财政部长贝森特表示，预计关税收入将持续增长，年底有望年 化至5000亿美元。他同时警告，如果最高法院对关税合法性作出不利裁决，将对财政造成"极为不利"的 影响，但政府将寻求通过其他行政授权维持类似关税。 CBO未公布财政赤字占GDP比重，但据其9月预测数据估算，2025财年赤字占GDP比约为5.9%，较上一 财年的6.4%略有下降。贝森特目标是在2028年、即特朗普任期结束前，将赤字率降至3%。分析人士指 出，如今美国在非危机时期维持接近6%的赤字比例，堪称现代史上罕见，突显出财政可持续性面临的 严峻挑战。 在收入端，特朗普政府加征关税带来了显著增长，2025财年海关税收达1950亿美元，较上年的770亿美 元翻逾两倍。然而，企业所得税收入较2024年下降约15%，部分原因在于今夏国会通过的《税收与支出 法案》允许企业在2025年享受更大幅度的投资抵扣，从而减少了预缴税款。CBO还指出，部分企业收 入递延至2024年，也导致2025年的相对下滑。 支出方面，社会保障金支出增加121 ...

日本执政党自由民主党10月4日将选出新一任党总裁。与此同时，日本政府与执政党自民党正在协调于 15日召开临时国会，以选出接替首相石破茂的新任领导人，届时日本将在一年多时间里迎来第二位首 相。 最新选情：五人参选三足鼎立 本次自民党总裁选举共有5人参与角逐，分别是农林水产大臣小泉进次郎、前经济安全保障担当大臣高 市早苗、内阁官房长官林芳正、前经济安全保障担当大臣小林鹰之以及自民党前干事长茂木敏充。 本次自民党总裁选举的党员和党友投票已于3日截止，4日经自民党国会议员投票后，新总裁将被选出。 随着选战进入尾声，选举格局出现新变化：5名候选人中，林芳正、小泉进次郎和高市早苗支持率领 先，呈现三足鼎立格局。 上述三人中，林芳正近期有后来居上之势，日本广播协会称其在国会议员中的支持率已经超过高市。林 芳正在政坛素有"消防员"之称，曾多次在内阁成员因丑闻辞职后临时补位，历任防卫大臣、文部科学大 臣、外务大臣和内阁官房长官等要职。他凭借丰富的从政经历和稳健形象，逐渐扩大支持基础。 与之相比，另外两名热门人选近期接连陷入争议。小泉阵营被曝动员支持者在网站留言造势，并提供现 成的"好评模板"，小泉为此公开致歉。舆论认为，这可能 ...

未来十年将是决定美国财政命运的关键时期。 债务问题作为当代全球经济体系的核心挑战，已深刻影响金融稳定、地缘政治格局以及市场动态。这一 问题并非突发事件，而是长期财政政策失衡、生产力下降以及货币体系脆弱性的结果。美国作为世界最 大经济体，其公共债务从20世纪中叶的相对可控水平，迅速膨胀至当今的庞大规模，不仅考验国内经济 韧性，还波及国际贸易、货币霸权和安全格局。2025年9月的数据显示，美国联邦债务总额已达37.3万 亿美元，债务/GDP比率超过119%，远高于国际货币基金组织（IMF）建议的发达国家阈值 （60%~80%）。这一危机通过债券市场收益率上升、全球去美元化趋势以及地缘政治紧张显现，预示 着潜在的货币体系重置。理解债务危机的成因、表现和潜在后果，对于投资者、经济学家和政策制定者 而言至关重要。 债务危机的成因分析 美国联邦债务的快速增长主要缘于长期的预算赤字。自2001年以来，美国政府几乎每年都出现赤字， 2025财年的预计赤字为1.9万亿美元，相当于GDP的6%。赤字的来源包括税收减少、支出增长和经济波 动。特朗普政府于2017年推出的减税政策以及2025年的进一步减税措施显著降低了联邦收入。美国 ...

新华财经北京9月26日电（王菁）防范化解地方政府债务风险是关乎发展全局的战略任务。2025年以 来，一揽子化债方案加速落地，截至9月26日，全年2万亿元置换债券额度已发行约1.986万亿元，进度 超99%，我国地方债务风险防控工作亦在系统应对、深化治理的新阶段走深走实。 业内人士表示，隐性债务化解是一项复杂的系统工程，需要坚持"遏制增量、化解存量"的基本原则，中 央与地方协同发力，短期应对与长效机制建设相结合。随着化债系列政策效果持续显现，地方政府债务 结构得到优化，财政可持续性增强，为经济高质量发展筑牢了安全垫。 隐债置换"领衔"一揽子化债政策落地见效 2025年地方债隐性债务置换呈现进度快、结构优化等特征。 据新华财经梳理，截至9月26日，今年已发行或公告发行的地方债用于置换存量隐性债务规模已达 19861.5285亿元，距离完成年度额度近在咫尺，仅河南、湖北分别76.1849亿元和62.2886亿元剩余额度 尚未披露发行。 从发行期限来看，2025年"置换隐债专项债"发行期限明显拉长，仅30年期品种的发行规模便已超过7000 亿元；10年期以上债券占比超七成，长期限品种有效平滑了各地偿债压力。 从地区分 ...

美国这边的问题也不简单，财政赤字已经变成常态，利息支出攀升，国会频繁内斗，截止日像个必须按 的按钮；特朗普把停摆的可能性挂在嘴边，并非危言耸听，而是把政治风险放在了市场的最前端。一个 事实是，中国在过去几年虽偶尔减持美债，但节奏克制，而今年7月的减持是明显加速，这个时点，选 在财政关键窗口动手，意图性很强。 会谈能不能改变这个趋势？答案并不乐观。对话是一条通路，但通路本身不能替代结构性改变，尤其当 信任被蚕食，言语就显得薄弱；史密斯代表团的任务或许是短期稳定市场情绪——换取一些国际信心， 为国会争取时间，防止债市暴走——但中国的诉求并不只是短期"别卖债"，而是要看到财政可持续性的 实质性动作和对其国家利益的尊重。 我把两边的话放在一起比对，能看到裂缝：美方急的是数组上的稳定——债券利率、市场情绪、预算通 过的时间窗；中方更看重的是长期博弈的均势——货币体系的安全、外汇储备的多样化、以及在关键时 刻不被"政治化"的资产配置权。前者像是医生按止血带，后者是在重建骨骼与肌肉，差距明显。 现场问答里有个瞬间很值得回味，一位美国议员在会后向中方官员询问："如果我们通过了预算，你们 会回购吗？"中方官员笑得有点冷，"回购 ...

Political Instability - France is experiencing unprecedented political turmoil, with five prime ministers in less than two years, leading to governance issues and a fragmented political landscape [1][3] - The current prime minister, Le Cornu, faces significant challenges in passing the budget due to a divided parliament, which has resulted in a systemic paralysis of the government [3][10] Economic Concerns - France's public debt has surpassed €3 trillion, equating to 114% of GDP, with interest payments expected to reach €67 billion this year, exceeding the budgets of all government departments except for education and defense [3][4] - Rating agency Fitch has downgraded France's credit rating, increasing borrowing costs and raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [4] Social Unrest - A wave of protests has emerged, with unions mobilizing over 500,000 people against budget cuts perceived as unfair, particularly targeting welfare and education while the wealthy continue to benefit from tax breaks [6][7] - The protests have escalated into significant disruptions in public services, with one-sixth of teachers participating in strikes and power generation reduced by approximately 4,000 megawatts [6] Political Negotiations - The left-wing Socialist Party has seized the opportunity to demand significant budget changes, including halving budget cuts and introducing a 2% tax on wealth exceeding €100 million, creating a standoff with the right-wing and business associations [10] - The government must navigate a complex political landscape where satisfying one faction risks alienating another, making it difficult to pass the budget [10][11] Future Outlook - While some economists express cautious optimism about France's economic fundamentals, others warn of a potential collapse if political reforms are not enacted [11] - The ability of the government to break the budget deadlock and restore public confidence will be crucial in determining whether France can avoid becoming the "sick man of Europe" [11]

Market Performance - The US stock market experienced a decline on September 16, with all three major indices closing lower: Dow Jones down 0.27% at 45757.90 points, Nasdaq down 0.07% at 22333.96 points, and S&P 500 down 0.13% at 6606.76 points [1][3] - In contrast, Chinese assets performed well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.76%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 [1][3] Chinese Stocks - Popular Chinese stocks saw significant gains, with NIO rising over 8%, Baidu over 7%, JD.com and iQIYI over 3%, and Alibaba over 2% [1][3] Gold Market - International gold prices reached new highs, with London spot gold exceeding $3700 per ounce and COMEX gold futures approaching $3740 per ounce [5][6] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to three short-term catalysts: rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, increased pressure from President Trump on the Fed's monetary policy, and growing concerns over fiscal sustainability leading to a sell-off of long-term bonds [8] Federal Reserve Expectations - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut this week is 96.1%, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 3.9% [8] - Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs forecasts that if the Fed's credibility is damaged, gold prices could soar to nearly $5000 per ounce as investors shift some of their US Treasury holdings into gold [8]

新华财经雅加达9月16日电（记者冯钰林）近期印尼财政部长更迭引发金融市场动荡，新财长上任后接 连出台的注资银行、经济刺激计划等系列举措表明其积极财政政策主张，引发投资者对财政可持续性的 担忧。在印尼经济增长显露疲态之时，投资者仍在为财政纪律定价，多重因素考验印尼政府多目标治理 能力。 内阁更迭引发市场动荡新财长财政政策或更为积极 作为新兴市场风险溢价参考，印尼10年期政府债券经短暂回调后维持平稳下降走势。 约苏阿说，印尼外汇储备充足，政策长期稳定，其债券收益率下降的势头和潜在资金流入构成债市短期 优势，但投资者仍需对财政政策走向保持警惕。 印尼金融市场近期经历了一波震荡行情。以严格财政纪律著称的印尼原财政部长英卓华8日被解职，直 接导致印尼股债汇"三杀"，9日印尼10年期国债收益率飙升5个基点至6.4%，三天内外资外流规模达 14.24万亿印尼盾（约合8.67亿美元），其中印尼央行证券化票据（SRBI）撤资达6.57万亿印尼盾，政府 债券撤资5.45万亿印尼盾，股市流出2.22万亿印尼盾，反应投资者对财政可持续性的深度担忧。 印尼经济改革中心研究员优素福·伦迪·马尼莱特表示，SRBI通常相对安全，很少出现此类 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's bond purchase is approaching, which is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion and may be implemented in Q4 or even October. - The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will increase. - The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge, which will bring some support to the bond market. - At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, investors can play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later. [2][3] Summary According to the Directory 1. The central bank's bond purchase is conducive to the sustainability of fiscal expansion - The net supply of government bonds has been increasing, with a 3 - year compound growth rate of 24% from 2022 - 2025, and the proportion of bond interest payments in fiscal expenditure has reached 4.5% in 2024. Future government bond issuance is likely to remain high. - Commercial banks' ability to absorb government bonds has declined, leading to frequent "flying" in the primary issuance of government bonds this year. - Low - interest rates are crucial for fiscal sustainability. In Japan, lower interest rates have supported continuous fiscal expansion. In China, a 10BP increase in bond issuance interest rates in 2025 would increase fiscal interest payments by 22.6 billion, and a 10BP increase in the average cost of existing debt could lead to an increase in interest - payment costs of over 100 billion. [8][9][13] 2. The central bank's recent measures to improve bond market liquidity may be preparations before bond purchases - The second meeting of the joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank in early September is regarded as a signal for the central bank to restart bond purchases. - The central bank may want to improve the bond market infrastructure first to reduce the impact of its bond - buying behavior on the yield curve. - In July, the central bank proposed to cancel the freeze on collateral for bond repurchases, and on September 12, the China Central Depository & Clearing Co., Ltd. and the National Inter - bank Funding Center announced a centralized bond lending business, which may increase market liquidity. The central bank may restart bond purchases in Q4 or even October. [20][27][29] 3. The early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. If it happens, the probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases will further increase - The statement of "pre - allocating part of the new local government debt quota for 2026 and using the debt - resolution quota earlier" does not necessarily mean the early issuance of 2 trillion replacement bonds in Q4. The new debt quota mentioned may refer to 80 billion of new local special bonds for debt resolution, and early allocation of this quota has been a common practice since 2019. - It is estimated that the average monthly net financing of government bonds in Q4 is about 633.5 billion. Unless there is a significant decrease in fiscal deposits in September, the early issuance of replacement bonds in Q4 is not the baseline expectation. Even if they are issued early, the central bank is likely to take measures to maintain liquidity, increasing the probability of bond purchases in Q4. [30][35][39] 4. The significance of the inflection point of social financing has declined, but the pressure on the fundamentals will gradually emerge - In August, the new social financing was 256.93 billion, slightly higher than expected but with a year - on - year decrease. Credit and government bonds were the main drags. The social financing growth rate dropped to 8.8%. - The significance of the social financing inflection point has decreased since 2021 due to the weakening impact of the real - estate cycle. However, the pressure on the fundamentals is increasing, as shown by weak export and inflation data in August and slow improvement in high - frequency data such as real - estate sales and construction - related indicators. This may support the bond market. [40][48] 5. At the current position, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about bonds. In the short - term, play the rebound and wait for the central bank's bond purchase to be implemented later - Although the bond market may face external disturbances such as the implementation of the redemption - fee new rule and the adjustment of the tax - exemption policy for public - fund dividends, after the 10 - year government bond yield reached 1.83%, panic has been largely released. - The large - scale buying by the allocation portfolio last week indicates that the interest rate may have reached the top. - It is recommended to play the short - term interest - rate rebound, keep a neutral position, and reserve funds for further investment. 3 - 5 - year policy - financial bonds and secondary bonds have increased in allocation value, while long - term bonds may be affected by the equity market and should be watched in the short - term. [49][52]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a clear warning regarding the medium-term fiscal sustainability of Romania, indicating that without further fiscal consolidation measures, public debt could rise to nearly 70% of GDP by 2030, with ongoing risks of sovereign credit rating downgrades [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Forecast - The IMF projects Romania's real GDP growth rate to be 1.0% in 2025, with a slight recovery to 1.4% in 2026 [1]. - The current economic outlook is characterized by dual risks of "downward growth and upward inflation" [1]. Group 2: Fiscal Policy Concerns - The IMF emphasizes concerns over the effective execution of Romania's fiscal consolidation plan for 2025-2026, which poses challenges to restoring market confidence [1]. - It is deemed "crucial" to implement medium-term fiscal consolidation and additional adjustment measures to rebuild fiscal sustainability and stabilize market expectations [1]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit Projections - If the current reform plan is fully executed, Romania's fiscal deficit is expected to narrow to about 6% of GDP by 2026 [1]. - Without additional corrective measures, the budget deficit may only reduce to 5% of GDP by 2030, while public debt could rise to nearly 70% [1]. Group 4: Additional Fiscal Measures - To achieve more robust fiscal targets, the IMF suggests that Romania needs to implement additional fiscal consolidation measures equivalent to 0.67% of GDP annually starting in 2027 to bring the fiscal deficit below 3%, which is considered the safe threshold under EU fiscal rules [2]. - The IMF's statement does not disclose specific policy recommendations or directly evaluate the current stance of the Romanian government, but emphasizes that strengthening fiscal discipline and enhancing policy credibility are key to avoiding a deterioration in the debt trajectory and mitigating rating downgrade risks [2].