特朗普新关税政策出台，或推高美债 期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 联合资信 主权部 | 程泽宇 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 美国联邦最高法院裁定特朗普政府部分关税政策超出其法定权限，不仅导致"对等关税" 及"芬太尼关税"等核心举措即时失效，还对特朗普政府的贸易政策行政权造成较大制约 特朗普政府迅速援引《1974 年贸易法》第 122 条款对全球进口商品实施临时关税，虽然援 引条款的适用条件并未实质性满足，但司法程序的"时间窗口"为特朗普政府提供战略缓 冲机遇 未来特朗普政府关税政策可能会从普遍性征税转为更聚焦于供应链核心节点，旨在通过切 断关键产业链的外部依赖，重构以美国为核心的封闭型工业体系 特朗普政府关税政策的重新调整，不仅重塑了美国的关税政策框架，还对供应链迁移、贸 易规则调整等方面产生连锁反应，新关税政策的长期化和结构化将重塑资产定价逻辑，或 推高美债期限溢价并令财政可持续性承压 当地时间 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国联邦最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关税政策超出其法定权限。裁决结果公布后，特朗普 政府迅速宣布自 2 月 24 日起 ...

日本首相高市早苗重申暂停对食品征收消费税两年，这一税收减免政策是她打破"过度财政紧缩"、重 振日本经济的核心主张之一。此前高市早苗凭借该承诺，在2月8日的大选中带领执政党取得压倒性胜 利。 为了使政府政策对企业更具可预测性，高市早苗表示，本届政府将改革国家预算的编制方式，包括推广 多年度预算和长期投资基金。 在日本，政府目前实行单年度预算制度，支出拨款期限为一年而非跨越数年，以确保国会对支出进行审 查。 周五，高市早苗在国会发表政策演讲时表示，将推行"负责任、积极主动的财政政策"，通过多年度预算 框架提振长期投资。她表示，本届政府将打破长期以来过度财政紧缩和长期投资不足的趋势，在人工智 能、芯片和造船等领域增加投资，以提升日本的潜在增长率。 与此同时，高市早苗也对日益加剧的市场担忧作出回应，承诺设定具体指标来衡量财政改革进展。她强 调，政府不会采取"鲁莽的"财政政策来破坏市场信心，将通过削减部分现有补贴来寻求财政收入，并 确保债务增长速度控制在经济增长率之内。 这一财政战略凸显了核心风险：高市早苗的支出计划必须在重振这个全球第四大经济体的同时，避免引 发对债务的担忧，防止日元和政府债券再次下跌。本次高市早苗发 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Japan's ultra-long-term government bonds continue to strengthen post-election, driven by cautious statements from Prime Minister Fumio Kishida regarding the food consumption tax reduction plan, which alleviated investor concerns about fiscal policy [1][3]. - The 40-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 10 basis points, while the 30-year yield decreased by 9.5 basis points, returning to levels close to early January, indicating a continuation of the post-election rebound [1][4]. - Kishida's remarks during her first press conference after the election acknowledged market concerns about the two-year food consumption tax reduction plan but did not strongly commit to lowering the tax, which eased the bond market's vigilance regarding fiscal sustainability [3][5]. Group 2 - The decline in ultra-long-term yields reflects a return of funds to longer-term bonds that are more sensitive to fiscal expectations, as the market's pricing of "tail risks" has converged following the yield drop [4][5]. - Kishida's cautious approach signals a potential for clearer policy pathways, reducing the likelihood of extreme fiscal policy scenarios, as she emphasized that the Ministry of Finance would not fill spending gaps through new bond issuance [5][6]. - Despite improved market sentiment, investors remain cautious about the potential for renewed volatility, particularly regarding how funding gaps will be addressed if tax reductions are pursued without increasing debt issuance [8].

在此前数周，围绕财政可持续性的担忧曾引发超长期国债剧烈波动。彭博称，随着收益率回落至接近1月初、即高市早苗突袭选举消息首次被报道时的水 平，市场对"尾部风险"的定价出现收敛。 这一轮下行集中体现在长端，30年期与40年期收益率的快速回落，反映出资金重新向期限更长、对财政预期更敏感的品种回流。 政策信号更克制，减税与发债担忧暂缓 彭博称，债市对高市早苗胜选的解读之一是，政治结果可能带来更清晰的政策路径，从而降低财政政策走向极端情形的概率。 在表态层面，高市早苗一方面承认市场对食品消费税减税的担忧，另一方面强调财政省不会通过发行新债来填补支出缺口，转而将审视补贴、特别税制与非 税收入，以寻找她所称"可持续"的资金来源。 日本超长期国债在大选后继续走强，高市早苗对食品消费税削减计划的谨慎表态缓解了投资者对财政政策的担忧，推动收益率进一步回落。 据彭博报道，40年期日本国债收益率下行10个基点，30年期收益率下行9.5个基点，回落至接近1月初水平，延续了选后反弹。 市场反应的关键在于高市早苗的最新表态。她在胜选后的首次记者会上提及市场对食品消费税两年减税计划的关注，并谈及提高国防和战略产业支出的目 标，但并未就下调食 ...

"高市并未就降低食品消费税做出坚定承诺，这使得债券投资者有强烈动机重新建立超长期日本国债的 多头头寸，这类债券历来提供较高收益率，"AXA Investment Managers Ltd． 高级固定收益策略师 Ryutaro Kimura表示："超长期日本国债利率的下行趋势可能会持续一段时间。" 尽管本周日元兑美元汇率已经连续三天走强，但日本外汇事务负责人三村淳周四表示，政府丝毫没有放 松警惕。 高市本周坚称财务省不会通过发行新债券来填补支出缺口，表示政府将重新审视补贴、特别税收措施和 非税收收入，以寻找"可持续"的资金来源。然而，投资者仍担忧市场可能再度崩盘，因为若政府要在不 增加债务的情况下削减消费税，仍需寻找其他融资渠道。 责任编辑：于健 SF069 日本超长期国债延续了大选后的涨势，因首相高市早苗历史性选举胜利缓解了投资者对财政政策的担 忧。 周四，日本40年期国债收益率下跌10个基点，30年期国债收益率下跌9.5个基点。在经历了数周因财政 可持续性担忧而引发的市场波动后，收益率目前已回落至1月初水平——当时正值高市提前大选的消息 首次被报道。 债券市场的反应表明，一些投资者押注高市的胜选将带来更清晰 ...

来源：环球 【环球时报特约记者 王辉】日本财务省10日公布国债相关数据，截至2025年底，包括国债、借款及政 府短期证券在内的日本国家债务总额超过1342万亿日元（100日元约合4.5元人民币），创下历史最高纪 录。这一数据再次加重了市场对日本财政健康状况的担忧，尤其是在高市早苗政府主张所谓"负责任的 积极财政"的局势下，今后日本债务规模或将进一步膨胀。 "日本进入2026财年时的经济基本面令人清醒。"英国金融机构IG集团11日分析表示，根据国际货币基金 组织2025年10月的数据，日本政府债务与GDP之比接近230%，在发达经济体中最高。日本内阁官房长 官木原稔9日在记者会上表示，通过稳步降低未偿还国债占日本GDP的比重，"将能实现财政可持续性， 并获得市场的信任。"但《日本经济新闻》报道提到，2026年度日本的新国债发行额计划为29.584万亿 日元，超过了2025年度最初预算的28.6471万亿日元。报道称，出于对高市早苗财政政策的警惕，日本 长期借款成本正在上升，政府负担的利息支付费用进一步膨胀，将加重未来的负担。共同社报道提到， 不断膨胀的偿债成本可能迫使政府削减社会保障、公共工程及教育等领域开支。 ...

这些减持动作加剧了美国长期国债收益率波动，并促使北欧资金转向欧元、瑞士法郎及黄金等避险资 产。丹麦机构投资者在2025年净卖出约15亿美元美债，持仓规模降至2020年以来最低水平。 行业政策与环境 经济观察网丹麦主要养老基金近期减持美国国债，可能间接影响全球金融市场。丹麦养老基金 AkademikerPension计划在1月底前清空所有美国国债持仓，规模约1亿美元，理由是担忧美国政策信用 风险及财政可持续性。同期，丹麦整体美债持仓规模降至约98.8亿美元，较2020年初减持近半，其他基 金如ATP和PFA也在调整债券配置以降低风险。 股票近期走势 作为美国最大外部债权方，欧洲持有美债规模约3.3万亿美元，丹麦的减持是欧洲机构重新评估美国资 产风险的一部分。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government's national borrowing, including government bonds, loans, and short-term securities, is projected to reach 134.2172 trillion yen by the end of December 2025, an increase of 2.45355 trillion yen from the end of December 2024, marking a historical high [3] - The balance of ordinary government bonds that need to be repaid through tax revenue is 109.44874 trillion yen, which is an increase of 2.34827 trillion yen compared to the end of December 2024 [5] - The government plans to issue an additional 2.9584 trillion yen in new bonds for the fiscal year 2026, exceeding the initial 2.86471 trillion yen planned for fiscal year 2025 [6] Group 2 - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's proposal to reduce the food consumption tax rate to zero within two years has raised market concerns, leading to an increase in long-term interest rates [6] - The Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno stated that stabilizing the reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio will achieve fiscal sustainability and ensure market trust [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a shift in market expectations towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, driven by weak labor market data and changes in monetary policy outlook [1][3] - The labor market data showed a significant drop in job openings, with December's JOLTS vacancies falling to 6.54 million from 6.93 million in November, marking the lowest level since 2020 [1] - The yield curve has steepened following the nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with expectations of a dovish monetary policy stance influencing short-term rates while long-term rates are affected by liquidity concerns [3] Group 2 - Gold prices increased by 1.6% over the week, recovering from previous declines, but the market is expected to take time to rebuild confidence and structure [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve chair's proposal to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's balance sheet may delay the issuance of long-term bonds, providing limited support for gold prices [2] - Chinese demand for precious metals is a key driver, but may weaken temporarily due to the upcoming Lunar New Year, potentially reducing volatility in the global precious metals market [2] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury yields across various maturities declined, with the 30-year UST down 2 basis points to 4.85%, and the 10-year UST down 3 basis points to 4.2% [3] - The usage of overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ONRRP) fell to $3.11 billion, a decrease of $7.31 billion from the previous week [3] - The net short positions in 2-year and 10-year UST futures increased, indicating a bearish sentiment among non-commercial investors [3] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 97.6, moving in tandem with gold prices, which suggests an increasing correlation between the two [7] - The total holdings of the dollar index decreased, with non-commercial long positions down by 1,335 contracts to 17,000 contracts, while short positions decreased by 4,888 contracts to 17,000 contracts [10] - Offshore dollar liquidity costs have risen, as indicated by the decline in the 3-month Basis Swaps for both the yen and euro [13] Group 5 - The copper-to-gold ratio fell to 2.63, indicating a marginal decline in global demand momentum as copper prices dropped while gold prices rose [16] - The gold-silver ratio increased due to the rise in gold prices and the decline in silver prices, reflecting market dynamics [19] - Gold premiums increased after a price correction, indicating strong domestic buying support [28] Group 6 - COMEX gold inventory decreased by 331,000 ounces to 35.294 million ounces, while silver inventory fell by 1.523 million ounces to 39.0466 million ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 7.44 tons to 1,079.7 tons, remaining near the lower median of the past decade [39] - COMEX gold total positions fell by 78,769 contracts to 489,000 contracts, with a notable increase in short positions, indicating a growing bearish sentiment [39]

Core Viewpoint - The market's reaction post-Japan's election indicates a temporary "presumption of innocence" towards Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as investors believe his overwhelming victory will provide policy clarity and reduce risks associated with fiscal conditions [1][3]. Market Reaction - Following the election results, Japan's stock market surged to a historical high, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 5.7% to surpass 57,000 points [1]. - The Japanese yen and government bond markets remained relatively stable, contrary to previous volatility concerns regarding fiscal sustainability [1][5]. Policy Stability Expectations - Investors' positive response is largely driven by expectations of policy stability, as Kishida committed to funding tax cuts through non-tax revenues and subsidy reviews rather than issuing deficit bonds [3][7]. - The ruling coalition's "supermajority" in the House of Representatives reinforces market confidence in policy continuity and manageability [3]. Stock Market Insights - The election results have led to a significant increase in stock market forecasts, with JPMorgan raising its year-end target for the Nikkei 225 index to 61,000 points due to enhanced political stability expectations [4]. - Analysts believe that sectors benefiting from Kishida's spending plans, such as defense and semiconductors, may experience a new wave of growth [4]. Bond Market Reactions - Despite initial concerns about Kishida's expansionary policies leading to bond sell-offs, the Japanese government bond market showed relative stability after policymakers issued reassuring signals [5][7]. - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield initially rose by 4 basis points to approximately 2.27% but quickly retreated, alleviating fears of disorderly selling [5]. Currency Movements - Contrary to typical expectations, the yen strengthened against the dollar, rising by 0.6% to 156.22, distancing itself from the intervention-triggering 160 level [8][11]. - Analysts attribute this unusual movement to Kishida's commitment to fiscal sustainability and the finance minister's statements on stabilizing the yen [11]. Future Outlook - The market's focus will shift to how Kishida implements his "bold measures," with plans for a visit to the U.S. and discussions on defense spending and investment commitments [12]. - While the market currently finds comfort, future challenges remain, particularly regarding the details of fiscal expansion plans, which could lead to increased volatility in the bond market [12].