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港股如何在地缘与估值优势间博弈?
Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.13% to 25,465.6 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.62% to 4,978.08 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 0.50% to 8,671.48 points during the week from March 9 to March 13, 2026[4]. - Among the sectors, Energy rose by 4.77%, Industrial by 3.87%, and Information Technology by 2.15%, while Real Estate fell by 3.79%, Materials by 3.17%, and Consumer Staples by 2.22%[6]. Liquidity and Fund Flows - The average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange was HKD 2,934.26 billion, a decrease of HKD 481.59 billion from the previous week[12]. - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 524.40 billion, an increase of HKD 605.34 billion compared to the previous week[12]. - Over the past week, global active foreign funds experienced a net outflow of USD 4.59 million, while passive foreign funds saw a net outflow of USD 6.05 million[17]. Valuation and Risk Premium - As of March 13, 2026, the PE and PB ratios of the Hang Seng Index were 12.33 times and 1.27 times, respectively, placing them at the 80% and 64% percentile levels since 2010[27]. - The risk premium for the Hang Seng Index was calculated at 3.83%, which is at the 3% percentile level since 2010[29]. Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses significant risks to the Hong Kong market, primarily due to potential disruptions in oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to increased inflation and operational costs for companies[48]. - A strong US dollar driven by market risk aversion may lead to reduced allocations to risk assets, further pressuring the Hong Kong market[48]. Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the greatest advantage for Hong Kong stocks is their valuation discount, but not all undervalued sectors are recommended for investment[49]. - Key sectors for potential investment include Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Communication Services, which are expected to benefit from performance and valuation support[49].