Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [10] Core Viewpoints - The report tracks marginal changes in the carbon market since 2025, indicating a 60% expansion progress in the carbon market, with expectations for quota prices to rebound in the second half of the year [2][4] - The issuance of green certificates (绿证) is expected to achieve full coverage by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year increase in trading volume of 3.64 times, indicating an upward price trend [2][5] - The market activity of CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) is anticipated to continue expanding due to methodological expansion [2][7] - The dual carbon strategy is accelerating, with sectors such as waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources expected to benefit [2][8] Summary by Sections Quotas - After the compliance period, quota prices have declined, with a current market expansion progress of 60%. The price dropped from over 100 yuan per ton at the end of last year to 68.46 yuan per ton by May 30, 2025, primarily due to weak demand during the non-compliance period [4][22] - The carbon market's coverage of carbon dioxide emissions is expected to increase from about 40% to over 60% with the inclusion of the steel, cement, and aluminum industries [4][24] Green Certificates - The issuance of green certificates has accelerated since mid-2024, with a completion rate of 95% for centralized renewable energy projects by the end of 2024. A total of 4.677 billion green certificates were issued, with wind, conventional hydropower, solar power, and biomass power accounting for 40.77%, 33.73%, 17.18%, and 8.15% respectively [5][29] - The trading volume of green certificates in 2024 increased by 3.64 times year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector consuming nearly 70% of the total [5][35] CCER - Since October 2023, the progress of CCER has accelerated, with the release of new methodologies and the establishment of a basic institutional framework for voluntary emission reduction trading [7][45] - The price of CCER is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend as more industries are included in the carbon quota management [49] Investment Strategy - The dual carbon strategy is advancing rapidly, with the carbon market construction accelerating. The report highlights potential investment opportunities in waste incineration, carbon monitoring, CCUS, hydrogen energy, electric sanitation vehicles, and recycling resources [8][52] - Companies such as Huanlan Environment, Guangda Environment, and Weiming Environment are expected to benefit from the green certificate replacing national subsidies, improving cash flow [52][53]