【广发环保 陈龙&郭鹏】垃圾焚烧多元特性、AI时代下重估其价值 建议关注 大地海洋、卓越新能、海螺创业、伟明环保、雪迪龙、景津装备、瀚蓝环境、上海实业控股、山高环能 等 AI时代垃圾焚烧资产价值重估 以电力、供水、固废为代表的基础设施，凭借供给刚性、需求稳定及低淘汰风险 等特征，【以实体资产形态锁定 长期现金流，具备穿越周期的长期价值基础】：1）供给扩张受特许经营权、审批流程及高投入约束，新增产能释 放周期长 【广发环保 陈龙&郭鹏】垃圾焚烧多元特性、AI时代下重估其价值 建议关注 大地海洋、卓越新能、海螺创业、伟明环保、雪迪龙、景津装备、瀚蓝环境、上海实业控股、山高环能 等 AI时代垃圾焚烧资产价值重估 以电力、供水、固废为代表的基础设施，凭借供给刚性、需求稳定及低淘汰风险 等特征，【以实体资产形态锁定 长期现金流，具备穿越周期的长期价值基础】：1）供给扩张受特许经营权、审批流程及高投入约束，新增产能释 放周期长；2）服务基础公共需求，现金流可预测性强；3）资产寿命长，不易受技术迭代或商业模式变化影响。 具体到垃圾焚烧 ：1）特许经营权锁定当地供给，兼备排他、垄断特性；2）稳定民生刚需之一，量、价锁定，成 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 环保行业深度跟踪 垃圾焚烧多元特性，AI 时代下重估其价值 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-01 | [Table_Pic 相对市场表现 2025Quote] -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 10/24 01/25 03/25 05/25 08/25 10/25 环保 沪深300 | [Table_Author 分析师： ]陈龙 | | | --- | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030004 | | | 021-38003623 | | | shchenlong@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 郭鹏 | | SAC 执证号：S0260514030003 | | | SFC CE No. BNX688 | | | 021-38003655 | | | guopeng@gf.com.cn | | | 分析师： | 荣凌琪 | ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年02月23日 2026年02月26日 2026年02月28日 公用环保 202602 第 2 期 优于大市 国办发布《关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》，2026 年全国碳排放 权交易市场有关工作安排出炉 市场回顾：本周沪深 300 指数上涨 0.36%，公用事业指数下跌 1.25%，环 保指数上涨 0.63%，周相对收益率分别为-1.61%和 0.27%。申万 31 个一 级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第 23 和第 15 名。电力板 块子板块中，火电下跌 0.23%；水电下跌 2.06%，新能源发电下跌 0.58%； 水务板块下跌 1.53%；燃气板块下跌 2.27%。 重要事件：国办《发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意见》。2026 年 2 月 11 日，国务院办公厅发布关于完善全国统一电力市场体系的实施意 见。文件明确，到 2030 年，基本建成全国统一电力市场体系，各类型电源 和除保障性用户外的电力用户全部直接参与电力市场，市场化交易电量占全 社会用电量的 70%左右。跨省跨区和省内实现联合交易，现货市场全面转入 正式运行，市场基础规则和技术标准全面 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The Southeast Asian waste incineration market is poised for significant growth, with a projected demand for incineration capacity reaching 222,000 tons per day by 2030 and 491,000 tons per day by 2050, representing an investment opportunity exceeding 100 billion [6][15] - The domestic waste incineration market in China has entered a mature phase, with the operational capacity reaching 1.16 million tons per day by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [16][20] - The profitability of waste incineration projects in Southeast Asia is expected to be significantly higher than domestic projects, with potential net profit margins exceeding 25% under optimistic scenarios [6][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Waste Market - The domestic incineration market is relatively saturated, with listed companies' capacity under construction accounting for less than 10% of total operational capacity [16][26] - The business model of waste incineration is resilient, characterized by stable profits and strong cash flow, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the waste incineration sector in Q1-Q3 2025 [28][31] Southeast Asian Waste Incineration Market - Population growth and urbanization are driving waste generation, making incineration the preferred solution for urban management in Southeast Asia [6][15] - The incineration rate in Southeast Asia is expected to accelerate, with significant investment opportunities available [6][15] Profitability and Operational Risks - High electricity prices and disposal fees are enhancing profitability, with revenue from Southeast Asian projects estimated to be 1.8 to 2.7 times that of domestic projects [6][15] - The operational environment in overseas markets presents complexities that require enhanced local management and risk mitigation strategies [6][15] Recommendations - Focus on operators using BOT/BOO models for overseas investments, such as Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., and China Tianying [6][15] - Consider equipment and engineering firms like Sanfeng Environment that leverage their manufacturing capabilities to enter overseas markets [6][15]

Summary of Zhongshan Public Utilities Conference Call Company Overview - Zhongshan Public Utilities is set to release its first earnings forecast for 2025, indicating a significant growth potential due to prior investment strategies and a recent water price adjustment effective February 1, 2025 [2][3]. Key Points Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders between CNY 1.798 billion and CNY 2.158 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 80% [3]. - The stock price has surpassed net asset value for the first time, marking a historic achievement [3]. - The new water pricing is expected to positively impact revenue, with a projected increase of 26% [6]. Investment Strategy - Zhongshan Public Utilities has a history of strategic investments, including early investments in Guangfa Securities and the establishment of industrial and renewable energy funds [2][3]. - The company has invested in 28 projects through its renewable energy fund, with plans to continue expanding over the next two years [11]. - The focus on financial returns from investments is emphasized, with exit strategies primarily through IPOs [4][5]. Water Supply and Waste Management - The company currently holds a 94% share of the city's water supply, expected to increase to 96% by the end of 2027, indicating a near-saturation point [6]. - The waste incineration segment is projected to contribute approximately CNY 180 million in profit in 2026, with the Changqing project contributing around CNY 50-60 million [7][8]. Dividends and Cash Flow - The company plans to maintain a 30% dividend payout ratio, considering profit performance and improvements in operating cash flow [14]. - Accounts receivable pressure is primarily concentrated in the drainage sector, while cash flow from the water supply business remains strong [15]. Engineering and Project Management - The engineering segment is expected to see a decline in revenue due to the completion of municipal projects, with a focus on maintaining its contribution to around 20% of total revenue [9][10]. - The net profit margin for the engineering segment is approximately 3%, which is higher than many state-owned enterprises [11]. Future Outlook - The company is committed to pursuing mergers and acquisitions in the solid waste sector, targeting a return on equity of over 10% [8]. - There are plans to enhance capital operations and mergers and acquisitions as part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" strategy, with a focus on public utilities, technology, and capital [11]. Regulatory and Market Considerations - The company is exploring the possibility of increasing residential wastewater treatment fees to improve cash flow, following successful models from other regions [16]. Additional Insights - The company is in a strong position to leverage its investments and operational efficiencies to drive future growth, with a clear focus on maintaining a balance between financial returns and strategic development in public utilities [2][11].

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Environment (00257) has seen a stock price increase of over 4% during trading, currently up 3.53% at HKD 4.99, with a trading volume of HKD 115 million [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Everbright Environment announced plans to issue up to 800 million RMB shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange last November [1] - On December 26, the China Securities Regulatory Commission confirmed that Everbright Environment has completed the filing for guidance registration with the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau, initiating the listing guidance process [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to a report by Guangyin International, a successful A+H listing for Everbright Environment would enhance the company's long-term value and provide access to financing channels in the A-share market [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that this issuance will provide sufficient funding reserves for the company's future overseas expansion, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese waste incineration industry's international ventures [1]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Environment (00257) has seen a stock price increase of over 4% during trading, currently up 3.53% at HKD 4.99, with a trading volume of HKD 115 million [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Everbright Environment announced plans to issue up to 800 million RMB shares on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange last November [1] - On December 26, the China Securities Regulatory Commission confirmed that Everbright Environment completed the filing for guidance registration with the Shenzhen Securities Regulatory Bureau, initiating the listing guidance process [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - According to a report by Everbright International, a successful A+H listing could enhance the company's long-term value and provide access to financing channels in the A-share market [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that this issuance will provide sufficient capital reserves for the company's future overseas expansion, maintaining a positive outlook on the Chinese waste incineration industry's international ventures [1]

垃圾焚烧：降碳背景利于行业现金流改善，出海带来增长 续航 20260128 摘要 垃圾焚烧行业新增产能有限，存量巨大，龙头企业通过并购、分红、出 海等方式维持竞争力。自 2021 年以来，行业资本开支收缩，经营性现 金流显著改善，2024 年头部企业经营性现金流净额同比增长 41%至 205 亿元。 随着自由现金流转正，垃圾焚烧行业分红能力提升，分红比例稳步提升， 对板块估值形成支撑。碳体系建设背景下，垃圾焚烧项目发放绿证，成 为商业模式转型抓手，改善现金流，并探索供热模式增加收入。 新的商业模式包括供热、直售电给 IDC 以及自建 IDC 进行算力租赁，有 助于提高盈利性和改善现金流。绿证替代国补后，垃圾焚烧公司可以直 接向 B 端企业销售，提高现金流质量，利好行业估值修复。 国家政策积极促进绿色电力和绿证市场发展，加快重点行业及数据中心 等用能单位的绿色电力消费比例，到 2030 年新建数据中心绿色电力消 费比例需提升至 80%以上，利好未来绿证销纳及需求增长。 Q&A 垃圾焚烧行业目前的市场状况如何？ 垃圾焚烧行业已经进入存量竞争时代。2020 年和 2021 年由于政策要求非竞 价类项目需在 2021 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Indonesia's Waste-to-Energy Market Industry Overview - The conference discusses the waste-to-energy (WTE) market in Indonesia, particularly focusing on the impact of the new presidential decree issued in November 2025, which significantly alters the revenue model for waste incineration projects [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Revenue Model Changes**: The new presidential decree shifts the revenue model from relying on tipping fees and grid connection prices to a fixed electricity price of $0.2 per kWh, simplifying the income structure and enhancing investor return expectations [1][4][5]. - **Increased Project Viability**: The decree addresses issues from the previous 2018 presidential decree, which failed due to problems with waste processing fees and collection systems. The new model allows for a 30-year fixed electricity price, significantly improving internal rates of return for projects [1][4][5]. - **No Capacity Limits**: The new policy removes capacity limits, allowing for increased operational hours and fuel calorific value, which can lead to higher electricity generation and revenue [1][6]. - **Government Involvement**: Local sovereign funds are involved in projects to ensure government revenue and provide backing, enhancing project stability and credibility [1][8]. - **Investment Costs**: Hardware equipment constitutes about 70% of the total investment cost, with an example cost of approximately 500 million RMB for a project processing 1,000 tons of waste, translating to about 500,000 RMB per ton [1][9][10]. Additional Important Points - **Challenges in Waste Collection**: The previous projects faced challenges in waste collection frequency and matching with electricity load. The new decree allows project owners to negotiate directly with local governments for waste supply, which is a significant advantage [5][7]. - **Carbon Revenue and Ash Reuse**: The new policy introduces carbon revenue and ash reuse as additional profit sources, which can enhance project economics [3][4]. - **Competitive Landscape**: Chinese companies have a technological and pricing advantage in the Indonesian market, particularly in core equipment like grate furnaces. Companies with proprietary technology, such as Kangheng and Chongqing Sanfeng, are better positioned to compete [2][3][17][24]. - **Operational Cost Dynamics**: The operational costs and revenues are easier to calculate under the new framework, as the government has quantified most variables. However, uncertainties remain regarding future policy changes [18]. - **Market Development Pace**: The pace of project development may slow down as the government waits for the first batch of projects to stabilize before launching subsequent rounds of bidding [23]. Conclusion - The new presidential decree is expected to create a more favorable environment for the waste-to-energy industry in Indonesia, attracting more investors and facilitating the growth of this sector. The involvement of local governments and sovereign funds, along with the removal of capacity limits, positions the industry for potential success in addressing waste management challenges in the region [1][4][8][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Insights - The environmental protection industry, particularly in waste incineration, is poised for significant growth, especially in overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and Central Asia, driven by high processing fees and electricity prices [4][9] - The investment space for waste incineration in the ASEAN countries and India is estimated to be around 250 billion RMB, with a potential daily incineration capacity of approximately 496,900 tons [4][10] - Indonesian policies are evolving to optimize business models and enhance project profitability, with a focus on direct electricity sales rather than local government subsidies [22][24] Summary by Sections 1. New Growth in Waste Incineration and Overseas Market Potential - The ASEAN countries and India are projected to generate a daily waste output of 1.4615 million tons by 2024, creating a substantial investment opportunity in waste incineration [9][10] - The investment potential in waste incineration is estimated at 248.5 billion RMB, assuming a conservative investment of 500,000 RMB per ton [10][11] - Several domestic companies, including Kangheng Environment and China Tianying, are leading the expansion into Southeast Asia and Central Asia, with significant operational capacities established [14][15] 2. Indonesian Policy Driving Business Model Optimization - The Indonesian government has shifted from local to national control over waste management, enhancing the creditworthiness of payment entities and increasing electricity prices to 0.20 USD per kWh [22][24] - The new policy aims to construct 33 waste incineration plants nationwide, with a total investment of approximately 5.6 billion USD [24][25] - The rapid progress in project bidding and implementation reflects the government's commitment to developing the waste incineration sector [24] 3. Economic Viability of Indonesian Projects - Economic assessments indicate that Indonesian waste incineration projects can achieve significantly higher profitability compared to domestic projects, with projected net profits of 160 RMB per ton for new projects [26][30] - The sensitivity analysis shows that optimizing investment and operational costs can further enhance the return on equity (ROE) for these projects [27][30] - The comparison of domestic and overseas projects highlights that overseas projects benefit from higher processing fees and electricity prices, leading to increased revenue per ton [18][20]