原因一：经济增速下滑期间，缩表将加剧经济下行；原因二：2023 年以 来央行货币政策取向偏宽松，流动性充裕，降低缩表的必要性；原因三： 商业银行以国有资本为主，缩表可能违背政府关于金融服务实体经济的 呼吁；原因四：监管助力商业银行关键指标持续处于合格线以上，故信用 风险短暂上升仍留有安全垫；国内外局势遭遇逆风，部分中小银行存在缩 表可能，但全行业缩表概率较低。 风险提示：国内外经济局势调整超预 期；主体违约概率抬升超预期；央行货币政策转向或监管要求变化超预 期。 固收深度报告 20250901：利率周期与财富转型：美国居民资产配置的重 构—低利率时代系列（九） 20 世纪 70 年代末以来，美国货币政策与居民财富配置的互动，构成了 理解美国经济金融变迁的关键线索。本研究以联邦基金利率的转折性变 化为分界点，追溯 1979 年至今美国居民财富配置的演进轨迹，解析不同 利率环境下资产配置选择的变迁。 回顾 50 年变迁，美国利率政策呈现 出大开大合的特点，美国居民资产配置呈现出"利率主导、风险轮动"的 鲜明轨迹。整体而言非金融资产占比下行，房产独大格局弱化；金融资产 内部呈现"权益类崛起，现金类潮汐"特征。在加息 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the environmental industry, highlighting robust operational growth and improved cash flow, particularly in waste incineration and water services [2][6]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing steady growth in operations and cash flow improvements, with significant opportunities arising from the automation and electrification of sanitation services [5][29]. - Waste incineration companies have shown enhanced return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, leading to consistent dividend payouts [3][6]. - Water services are witnessing stable performance with declining capital expenditures and accelerated water price increases [4][6]. - The sanitation sector is rapidly adopting electric vehicles, with a notable increase in sales of new energy sanitation equipment [5][6]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration - The average waste incineration companies reported a 1.8% increase in waste processed per ton and a 1.2% increase in electricity sold per ton in the first half of 2025 [6]. - Significant growth in heating services was observed, with top companies like Haichuang and Green Power showing increases of 170% and 115% respectively [6]. - The sector is focusing on operational efficiency and expanding B-end and C-end services to enhance profitability and cash flow [6]. Water Services - The water services sector reported a 2% decline in revenue but a 6% increase in net profit in the first half of 2025, with notable performance from Zhongshan Public Utilities due to high investment returns [14][15]. - Major cities have implemented water price increases, which are expected to drive a new round of water price reforms [6][15]. - Key recommendations include companies like Yuehai Investment and Xingrong Environment, which are expected to benefit from price adjustments and stable growth [6][15]. Sanitation - The penetration rate of electric sanitation vehicles is accelerating, with a 77.6% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. - The rise of automation in sanitation is evident, with over 290 new projects in the autonomous driving sector, of which more than 90 are focused on automated cleaning [6]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Yutong Heavy Industry and others that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The logic of improving solid waste quality and efficiency, along with cash flow enhancement, continues to be realized, while the construction of the national carbon market is strengthened and carbon constraints are tightening [1] - The report highlights the importance of cash flow improvements and dividend increases in the waste incineration sector, driven by reduced capital expenditures and enhanced operational efficiency [39] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a stable revenue growth, with the waste incineration sector's revenue reaching 23.2 billion yuan, a 1% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 5.1 billion yuan, an 8% increase year-on-year [10][13] - The report emphasizes the need for a market-oriented approach in water services, predicting significant cash flow improvements similar to those seen in the waste incineration sector [7] Policy Tracking - The central government has issued guidelines to strengthen the national carbon market, aiming for a more comprehensive coverage of industrial sectors and a robust carbon pricing mechanism by 2030 [35][36] - The report suggests that stricter carbon monitoring will increase demand for carbon monitoring equipment, benefiting companies like Snowy Dragon and Juguang Technology [38] Company Performance - **Huanlan Environment**: Achieved a net profit of 966 million yuan in H1 2025, a 28% increase year-on-year, with a significant contribution from its subsidiary [29] - **Green Power**: Reported a 24% increase in net profit in H1 2025, driven by increased waste incineration and operational efficiency [31] - **Haihua Entrepreneurship**: Experienced a 9.33% increase in net profit, with a focus on stable growth in waste disposal and energy generation [31] - **Yongxing Co.**: Increased its waste processing volume, leading to a 9% rise in net profit [32] Cash Flow and Dividends - The waste incineration sector is seeing a significant increase in free cash flow, with projections indicating potential dividend payouts reaching 50% to 150% in the coming years [40][41] - The report notes that companies are beginning to distribute dividends more actively, with Huanlan Environment initiating its first mid-year dividend [24][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental protection industry [11]. Core Insights - The environmental protection sector showed a slight increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 1.32% in the first half of 2025, despite a slight decline in revenue [6][22]. - The performance of waste incineration and water services remains stable, while the overall growth of the sector is hindered by declines in air quality and recycling resources [6][22]. - The industry is transitioning towards a ToB model, which is expected to accelerate valuation recovery [9]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In H1 2025, the environmental protection sector achieved revenue of 142.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.20% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.32% [6][22]. - The gross profit margin improved to 28.7%, up by 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [6][22]. Income Statement - The sector's net profit growth is primarily driven by stable performance in waste incineration and water operations, while the recycling and air quality segments experienced declines [22][24]. - Waste incineration saw revenue growth of 1.81% and net profit growth of 9.31% in H1 2025 [23]. - Water operations reported a slight revenue decline of 1.38% but a net profit increase of 1.79% [30]. Balance Sheet - The environmental protection sector's debt ratio was 57.7%, showing a slight increase of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - Accounts receivable and related assets continue to rise, indicating potential cash flow challenges [7]. Cash Flow Statement - The cash collection ratio improved to 93.5%, up by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, with net cash flow from operating activities reaching 10.44 billion yuan, an increase of 13.8% [8]. - Investment activities showed a net expenditure of 27.4 billion yuan, primarily directed towards waste incineration and water operations [8]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends continued investment in waste incineration and water services, highlighting that the sector can support a price-to-earnings ratio of 14x-16x, while many quality stocks are currently trading at 10x-12x [9]. - The report suggests potential growth opportunities in various segments, including testing services and energy conservation [9].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告(AH)·工业工程(HS) 绿色动力环保（01330.HK）/绿色动力 （601330.SH） 2025 年中报点评：25H1 业绩同增 24%，提 分红+提 ROE 兑现典范 买入(首次)-H /买入(维持)-A | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 3,956 | 3,399 | 3,593 | 3,765 | 3,910 | | 同比（%） | (13.39) | (14.08) | 5.71 | 4.79 | 3.85 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 629.28 | 585.08 | 649.61 | 717.62 | 760.30 | | 同比（%） | (15.51) | (7.02) | 11.03 | 10.47 | 5.95 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 0.51 | 0.55 | | P/E（A） | 15.50 | ...

Group 1: Operational Performance - In 2024, Tianjin TEDA Environmental Protection processed 4.8498 million tons of municipal waste, a year-on-year increase of 61.82% [2] - The electricity generated was 1.64 billion kWh, up by 13.65% compared to the previous year [2] - For the first half of 2025, the company processed 2.5819 million tons of municipal waste, a 13.15% increase year-on-year [3] - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 639 million yuan, with a net profit of 85 million yuan [3] Group 2: Business Development and Strategy - The company is focusing on the "incineration+" model to enhance solid waste disposal and energy generation [3] - Research is ongoing for biogas hydrogen production, but no pilot projects or commercialization timelines have been established yet [3] - The company aims to diversify its business model in response to new PPP regulations, emphasizing collaboration with industrial partners [4] Group 3: Product Lines and Market Position - TEDA Environmental Protection's main business includes waste management and environmental services, with subsidiaries focusing on manufacturing high-end materials [3] - The market share for high-end melt-blown products is approximately 2%, with a focus on high-temperature resistant materials and liquid filtration [4] - The company is actively working on import substitution for high-end filtration materials, achieving breakthroughs in technology [4] Group 4: Financial and Investment Outlook - The total investment for new projects in the ecological and environmental sector for 2025 is projected at 870.47 million yuan [5] - The company plans to issue green asset-backed securities to raise funds for operational and project financing [5] - The focus for 2025 includes investments in waste-to-energy projects, solid waste acquisitions, and new material development [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a decline in revenue in the first half of 2025, but net profit showed slight growth, indicating mixed performance across different business segments [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 3.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.425 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.13% [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.894 billion yuan, down 10.04% year-on-year, and net profit of 709 million yuan, a decrease of 0.24% [1]. Business Segments - The environmental protection business continued to grow, with waste incineration project waste input reaching 6.8932 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.71%, and electricity generation of 1.863 billion kWh, up 7.65%, contributing to environmental operation revenue of 1.711 billion yuan, a growth of 6.2% [2]. - The equipment manufacturing and service business saw new orders of 3.559 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to 1.213 billion yuan in H1 2024, but revenue declined by 12.5% to 2.175 billion yuan due to the impact of revenue recognition timing [2]. Profitability and Margins - The company's overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 49.0%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, with project operation business gross margin rising to 62.7% and equipment manufacturing and service gross margin increasing to 38.1% [2]. - The increase in equipment gross margin is attributed to the company's active research and development of new products and an expanded product line [2]. Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flow improved significantly, with the cash collection ratio rising by 8.4 percentage points to 79.8%, indicating a positive trend in cash flow management [3]. - The company has initiated trial production of the 20,000-ton oxygen-enriched side-blown production line under the Jiaman project, producing 2,306 tons of nickel-containing products in H1 2025 [3]. - The company is also expanding its investment in lithium battery materials, planning to invest 80 million yuan for a 10% stake in a 60,000-ton lithium carbonate project in Quanzhou, Fujian [3]. Future Outlook - As of June 2025, the company operated 55 waste incineration projects with a capacity of approximately 37,300 tons per day, with ongoing projects expected to enhance future performance [4]. - The company anticipates net profits of 2.96 billion yuan, 3.47 billion yuan, and 3.97 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 11.2x, 9.6x, and 8.3x, maintaining a "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Insights - Recent guidance from the Ministry of Finance emphasizes the need for local governments to fulfill payment obligations for existing PPP projects, which is expected to improve cash flow for waste incineration and water services [4][14] - As of August 22, 2025, 95% of the 2 trillion yuan quota for replacing hidden debts has been implemented, accelerating the issuance of local government special bonds [5][19] - The National Development and Reform Commission has reiterated the importance of adjusting public utility prices, with water and waste disposal fees being gradually increased across various regions [30][29] Summary by Sections Government Payment Implementation - The recent guidance on existing PPP projects highlights the necessity for local governments to include related expenses in their budget management and ensure timely payments [4][14] - The funding sources for these projects can include local government special bonds, central transfer payments, and local self-owned funds, which may strengthen the repayment guarantees for future PPP projects [15][14] Debt Replacement and Special Bonds - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has significantly accelerated, with 1.91 trillion yuan issued from January to August 2025, primarily aimed at replacing hidden debts [5][19] - Local governments are actively addressing existing hidden debt issues, which is expected to enhance liquidity for affected parties [19][22] Public Utility Price Adjustments - The report notes that many regions have been slow to adjust water and waste disposal fees, leading to financial losses for water supply companies [30][29] - Recent adjustments in water prices have been observed in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen, with average increases of 15.8% for residential water rates [30][34] Investment Logic - The combination of government payment implementation, debt replacement, and price adjustments is expected to positively impact cash flow in the waste incineration and water sectors [36][38] - The industry is experiencing stable growth, with improved cash flow and increased dividends, driven by market reforms and a shift towards direct sales to industrial and commercial clients [38][39]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance of the public utility and environmental sectors, noting a mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.37% while the public utility index fell by 0.55% and the environmental index increased by 1.72% [2] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.37% this week - The public utility index decreased by 0.55% - The environmental index rose by 1.72% - Relative weekly returns for the indices were -2.92% for public utilities and -0.65% for environmental sectors [2] Sector Performance - In the electricity sector: - Thermal power decreased by 1.55% - Hydropower fell by 1.26% - New energy generation dropped by 0.08% - In the water sector, there was a slight increase of 0.23% - The gas sector saw an increase of 1.75% [2] Important Events - Gansu Province's development and reform commission issued a plan for the market-oriented reform of new energy pricing, with a mechanism price set at 0.3078 yuan per kilowatt-hour for projects completed before June 1, 2025, and a total electricity scale of 154 billion kilowatt-hours [3] - Longyuan Power announced a shareholder dividend plan for 2026-2030, committing to distribute at least 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders in cash dividends each year [3] Special Research - The report discusses the acceleration of the electricity spot market development, with several provinces transitioning to formal operations by 2025, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of electricity resource allocation [4] - The report outlines investment strategies in the public utility sector, recommending major thermal power companies and highlighting the potential for stable earnings in the nuclear power sector [5] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include: - Major thermal power companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric - Leading new energy companies such as Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy - Stable nuclear power operators like China National Nuclear Corporation and China General Nuclear Power Group - High-dividend water power stocks like Yangtze Power [5] - In the environmental sector, the report suggests focusing on mature industries like water and waste incineration, and highlights opportunities in the domestic scientific instrument market and the waste oil recycling industry [5]

Group 1 - Insurance capital is an important source of medium to long-term funds in the capital market, with increased market entry space due to low interest rates and regulatory changes [1] - In 2023, insurance capital made 9 equity stakes in A-shares and H-shares, increasing to 20 in 2024, with 21 stakes made in the first seven months of this year [1] - Stable profit and high dividend yield assets such as banks, public utilities, and environmental protection are favored by insurance capital, with waste incineration being particularly attractive due to its demand characteristics and stable operational performance [1] Group 2 - The waste incineration industry is experiencing accelerated development in heat supply business, with leading companies improving energy efficiency and achieving high certainty in performance growth [2] - Mergers and acquisitions are speeding up, with companies leveraging financial and technical advantages for scale expansion, leading to increased industry concentration [2] - Companies like Huanlan Environment and Zhongke Environmental Protection have reported mid-term performance forecasts, confirming the trends of heat supply and mergers in the industry [2] Group 3 - Huanlan Environment expects a net profit of approximately 967 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of about 9%, driven by new consolidations and operational efficiencies [3] - Zhongke Environmental Protection reported a net profit of 196 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.83%, attributed to business expansion and project capacity release [3] - Zhongke Environmental Protection is recognized as a benchmark in the waste incineration industry for its heat supply model, with a significant compound annual growth rate in net profit and cash flow [3] Group 4 - Mergers and acquisitions are crucial for Zhongke Environmental Protection's performance growth, with successful projects enhancing profitability significantly [4] - The company has completed several acquisitions in heat supply projects, demonstrating effective resource integration and operational excellence [4] - The ongoing green energy transition and merger wave are driving high-quality development in the waste incineration sector, with positive investment returns expected [4]