Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The demand for waste incineration in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is urgent, driven by rapid urbanization and rising consumer spending, leading to a significant increase in municipal solid waste generation [6][17]. - Most Southeast Asian countries have a waste incineration treatment ratio below 10%, while Central Asia is even more lagging, with nearly 100% reliance on landfill disposal as of the end of 2024 [6][19]. - Chinese companies have established a competitive advantage in overseas waste incineration projects due to their technological strength and comprehensive solution capabilities, with over ten new contracts signed in 2023, totaling nearly 27,000 tons/day of capacity [7][28]. - The waste incineration sector is characterized by high certainty and steady growth, making it a premium absolute return sector [8][35]. Summary by Sections Waste Incineration Demand in "Belt and Road" Countries - The increase in waste generation is significant, with cities like Ho Chi Minh City producing about 9,700 tons of waste daily, of which only 33% is treated through incineration and composting [6][21]. - Indonesia faces severe waste management challenges, with over 35% of waste unprocessed and directly entering waterways, prompting government plans for incineration plants in 30 cities [6][21]. Economic Conditions Favoring Incineration Technology - By 2024, the GDP per capita in major Southeast Asian countries is projected to be between $4,000 and $10,000, indicating readiness for the adoption of incineration technology [6][24]. - Countries like Thailand and Malaysia have GDPs of $7,345 and approximately $11,867, respectively, which are comparable to China's GDP levels when it began promoting waste incineration [6][24]. Active Project Bidding and High Participation of Chinese Companies - The trend of regular and large-scale project bidding in Southeast Asia and Central Asia is evident, with Chinese companies dominating the competitive landscape [7][28]. - In 2023, Chinese firms signed contracts for waste incineration projects with a combined capacity of nearly 27,000 tons/day, primarily in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Uzbekistan [7][28]. Growth Potential and Investment Strategy - Southeast Asia is expected to remain a core market, with project bidding continuing to increase, while Central Asia is in the early stages of development [8][35]. - The integration of waste incineration with new business models such as energy storage and digital capabilities is anticipated to create additional value-added services in overseas environmental projects [8][35]. Recommended Industry Leaders - Key industry leaders recommended include Huanlan Environment, China Everbright, Weiming Environmental, Yongxing Co., Green Power, Junxin Co., Sanfeng Environment, Xirong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment [8][36].

事件：公司发布2025 年前三季度业绩预增公告，预计2025 年前三季度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润16.05 亿元左右，同比增长15.85%左右；预计实现归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益的净利润 15.36 亿元左右，同比增长12.39%左右。 收购粤丰环保顺利落地，垃圾焚烧龙头地位稳固，协同效应逐步释放。公司完成对粤丰环保的并购后， 垃圾焚烧在手总产能达到9.76 万吨/日，位居A 股首位、全国前三。整合协同效应潜力巨大，有望持续 释放盈利能力：（1）财务协同：粤丰环保融资成本高于瀚蓝环境，公司已着手进行债务置换与降息， 截至半年报披露日，粤丰环保总贷款降低约13 亿元，融资利率从并购前的2.75%-4.75%降低至 2.50%-4.00%。（2）运营协同： 公司供热业务经验丰富，而粤丰环保供热潜力尚待挖掘，粤丰环保正有序融入公司管理体系，释放潜 能，若粤丰环保供热水平持续提升，预计可带来显著的利润增厚。 内生经营提质增效成果明显，新业务模式打开估值空间。公司内生增长动力强劲，固废主业通过精细化 管理实现"质"的提升。一方面，供热业务持续高增，2025 年上半年公司实现对外供热94.35 万吨，同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how both technology and dividend assets benefit from a low interest rate environment, despite appearing to be conflicting asset classes [4][18]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Chen Bo employs a "barbell strategy" combining both dividend and technology assets to provide a more adaptable product mix for investors [4][19]. - The investment framework emphasizes three key concepts: "small and beautiful" alpha, high ROE as a standard for excellent companies, and "high cut low" for dynamic portfolio adjustments [5][14]. - The strategy has shown strong performance during market fluctuations in 2023 and 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of this approach [4][16]. Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Chen Bo's investment philosophy is influenced by notable figures such as Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett, and Charlie Munger, focusing on finding small-cap growth stocks with potential for significant returns [6][12]. - High ROE is considered a critical indicator of a company's long-term profitability and competitive advantage, with a benchmark of 15% ROE being highlighted [21][22]. - The article emphasizes the importance of adapting to macroeconomic conditions, distinguishing between bull and bear market strategies [15][31]. Group 3: Market Insights - The current low interest rate environment is expected to favor both growth and dividend-paying stocks, with a shift in focus from traditional assets to those that can provide better returns [19][20]. - The article notes that as the economy transitions, the focus should be on identifying new growth sources within the market, regardless of whether the assets are classified as dividend or technology [28][29]. - Chen Bo predicts a systemic revaluation of Chinese risk assets, suggesting that various styles of stocks will perform well in a true bull market [31].

8 月数据显示，燃气行业表观消费量同比增长 1.8%，1-8 月微降 0.1%，基本 持平。尽管 8 月是天然气传统淡季，但工业恢复节奏较慢。然而，考虑到下半 年工业复苏和居民用气需求回升，预计天然气需求增速将回到中低单位数水平。 上半年主要制约因素包括气量影响和现货价格未大幅下降，导致采购成本相对 平稳或略降。展望 2026 年，随着海外供给预期增加及国内新气源拓展，燃气 行业成本有望进一步优化。 当前投资机会集中在需求复苏逻辑和成本优化标的 上。A 股推荐标的包括新奥股份、深圳燃气和佛然能源： 火电板块投资机会从高股息率、短期业绩弹性大及明年业绩风险小三个 维度衡量，同时符合三个要求的是宝新能源与京能电力。京能电力与申 能股份 2025 年度预期股息率均在 5%以上。 A 股市场浙能电力、内蒙华电和淮河能源的股息率约为 5.1%，华能国 际和国电电力的股息率约为 4.6%。港股华能和华电的股息率分别约为 6.5%和 6.4%，具有较高性价比。 水电竞争格局中，低风险偏好可选长江电力，桂冠电力和国投电力也有 类似水平。垃圾焚烧行业推荐君欣股份、瀚蓝环境及绿色动力。环保板 块看好艾克兰与奥福科技，以及龙净环保 ...

国信证券近日发布公用环保202510第2期：本周沪深300指数下跌0.51%，公用事业指数 上涨3.45%，环保指数上涨1.49%，周相对收益率分别为3.97%和2.00%。申万31个一级行业 分类板块中，公用事业及环保涨幅处于第4和第10名。电力板块子板块中，火电上涨 7.83%；水电上涨2.30%，新能源发电上涨3.72%；水务板块上涨5.55%；燃气板块上涨 7.05%；检测服务板块上涨1.53%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 市场回顾：本周沪深300指数下跌0.51%，公用事业指数上涨3.45%，环保指数上涨 1.49%，周相对收益率分别为3.97%和2.00%。申万31个一级行业分类板块中，公用事业及环 保涨幅处于第4和第10名。电力板块子板块中，火电上涨7.83%；水电上涨2.30%，新能源发 电上涨3.72%；水务板块上涨5.55%；燃气板块上涨7.05%；检测服务板块上涨1.53%。 重要事件：截至2025年10月12日，全国已有多个省份公布"136号文"承接文件并启动或 完成新能源增量项目机制电价竞价。本期梳理了全国10省级电网区域"136号文"承接文件内 容及部分区域新能源增量项目机制 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the benefits of rising metal prices for companies like High Energy Environment and the performance contributions from green electricity in mining for Longjing Environmental Protection. It emphasizes the value of water and solid waste dividends [1] Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is expected to see a significant increase in cash flow and dividends due to reduced capital expenditures and improved operational efficiency. The solid waste sector is entering a mature phase, with free cash flow turning positive in 2023 and continuing to improve in 2024 [18][20] - The report notes that the market for water services is stabilizing, with a focus on cash flow improvements and potential for high dividends, similar to the garbage incineration sector [23][24] Company Tracking - High Energy Environment is benefiting from rising metal prices and is actively expanding its resource recycling operations. Longjing Environmental Protection is seeing performance contributions from new projects in green electricity and storage equipment [5][18] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Huanlan Environment, Green Power, and Yongxing Co., highlighting their strong dividend potential and operational improvements [5][23] Policy Tracking - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is set to release a carbon emissions trading market allocation plan for the steel, cement, and aluminum industries, which will cover approximately 1,500 new key emission units and manage a total emission volume of 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility and environmental sectors [1][5][29]. Core Views - The report highlights the significant growth in the public utility and environmental sectors, with the public utility index rising by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49% during the week [1][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of green methanol production, which significantly reduces carbon emissions throughout its lifecycle, and outlines the two main production routes: biological methanol and electro-methanol [2][15]. - The report suggests that coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, allowing thermal power profitability to remain reasonable, and recommends major thermal power companies such as Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, while the public utility index rose by 3.45% and the environmental index by 1.49%, with respective relative returns of 3.97% and 2.00% [1][31]. - Within the power sector, thermal power increased by 7.83%, hydropower by 2.30%, and renewable energy generation by 3.72% [1][31]. Important Events - As of October 12, 2025, multiple provinces have released documents related to the "136 Document" and initiated or completed competitive pricing for new energy incremental projects [1][23]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends several companies across different sectors: - For thermal power: Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [3][29]. - For renewable energy: Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and regional offshore wind companies [3][29]. - For nuclear power: China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [3][29]. - For hydropower: Yangtze Power [3][29]. - For gas: Jiufeng Energy [3][29]. - For environmental services: China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities [3][30]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and investment ratings for several companies, all rated as "Outperform" [5][8]: - Huadian International (Code: 600027.SH) - Longyuan Power (Code: 001289.SZ) - China Nuclear Power (Code: 601985.SH) - Yangtze Power (Code: 600900.SH) - Jiufeng Energy (Code: 605090.SH) Special Research - The report discusses the production routes for green methanol, emphasizing the need for renewable hydrogen and carbon sources [2][15]. - It also details the competitive pricing results for new energy projects across various provinces, highlighting specific prices and execution periods [23][26].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the successful completion of China's first ship-based green methanol refueling operation at Ningbo Zhoushan Port, marking a significant milestone in the development of green fuel capabilities in the region [3]. Market Review - In September, the CSI 300 Index rose by 3.20%, while the public utility index increased by 0.41% and the environmental index by 0.77%. The relative monthly returns for these indices were -2.80% and -2.43% respectively [2]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 13th and 11th in terms of growth. The environmental sector saw a 0.77% increase, while the electricity sector's thermal power rose by 2.34%, and hydropower fell by 3.08% [2]. Important Events - The successful refueling of the "COSCO Shipping Libra" with 230 tons of green methanol at Ningbo Zhoushan Port signifies the port's capability to handle LNG, biofuels, and methanol, enhancing its status as an international hub [3]. - This operation involved collaboration between China Ship Fuel, Zhejiang Port Group, and Ningbo Zhoushan Port Group, utilizing seven specialized methanol transport tankers and explosion-proof refueling equipment [3]. Investment Strategy - Public Utilities: Recommendations include Huadian International for thermal power, Longyuan Power and Three Gorges Energy for renewable energy, and China Nuclear Power for stable nuclear power operations [4][5]. - Environmental Sector: Focus on companies like China Everbright Environment and Zhongshan Public Utilities, as well as opportunities in the domestic waste oil recycling industry due to upcoming EU SAF policies [5].

Core Viewpoint - The public utility and environmental sectors have shown underperformance in the recent market, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.44%, the public utility index down 2.18%, and the environmental index down 1.42% [2][4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.44%, while the public utility index fell by 2.18% and the environmental index dropped by 1.42%, resulting in relative weekly returns of -1.73% and -0.97% respectively [2]. - Among the 31 primary industry sectors classified by Shenwan, public utilities and environmental sectors ranked 24th and 21st in terms of performance [2]. - In the electricity sector, thermal power decreased by 3.95%, hydropower by 2.75%, and new energy generation by 2.58%. Conversely, the gas sector saw an increase of 1.53% [2]. Important Events - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the industrial power generation in August reached 9,363 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. From January to August, the total was 64,193 billion kWh, up 1.5% year-on-year [2]. - In August, the growth rate of industrial wind power accelerated, while hydropower saw a larger decline, and the growth rates of thermal, nuclear, and solar power generation slowed down [2]. - The Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission and Energy Bureau released a plan to deepen the market-oriented reform of new energy grid connection prices, with existing project prices set at 0.453 yuan/kWh and new projects categorized into offshore wind, other wind, and solar power [2]. Specialized Research - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a plan for the large-scale construction of new energy storage from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing the need for a pricing mechanism for new energy storage [3]. - Various provinces have introduced capacity pricing or compensation policies for new energy storage projects, with standards ranging from 100 to 330 yuan/kW·year [3]. - Investment strategies in the public utility sector include recommendations for major thermal power companies and new energy leaders, as well as stable nuclear power operators [4]. Investment Strategy - In the public utility sector, coal and electricity prices are expected to decline simultaneously, maintaining reasonable profitability for thermal power, with recommendations for major companies like Huadian International and Shanghai Electric [4]. - Continuous government support for new energy development is anticipated to stabilize profitability, with recommendations for leading companies in the new energy sector [4]. - The water and waste incineration sectors are entering a mature phase, with improved free cash flow, suggesting investment opportunities in the environmental sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The improvement of the near-consumption pricing mechanism for renewable energy will facilitate the direct connection of green electricity, benefiting waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The price of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) has reached a new high in Europe, positively impacting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] - The solid waste sector has seen significant acceleration in national subsidies for recycling, leading to improved cash flow and dividend payouts [15][16] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The environmental protection industry is experiencing a positive trend with the implementation of new pricing mechanisms for renewable energy, which will enhance the economic viability of waste-to-energy projects [9][10] - The SAF market in Europe is tightening, leading to increased prices and benefiting UCO and SAF producers in China [11][12] Solid Waste Sector - National subsidies for recycling have accelerated significantly, with a reported 2.064 billion yuan received in July-August 2025, surpassing the previous year's figures [15] - The solid waste sector is seeing improvements in return on equity (ROE) and cash flow, with a focus on operational efficiency and reduced financial costs [15][16] Water Sector - The water sector is poised for growth with expected improvements in cash flow and dividend payouts, similar to trends observed in the waste-to-energy sector [19][20] - Recent water price reforms in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen are anticipated to drive further growth in the sector [19] Sanitation Equipment - The sales of sanitation vehicles have increased, with a notable rise in the penetration rate of new energy sanitation vehicles, reaching 16.14% [22][23] - The market for electric sanitation vehicles is expanding rapidly, with sales growth of 77.55% in the first seven months of 2025 [22][23] Biofuel Sector - The average price of waste cooking oil has decreased, leading to an increase in profit margins for biofuel producers [32] - The biofuel market is expected to remain stable, with ongoing demand for waste oils and limited supply growth [32] Lithium Battery Recycling - The profitability of lithium battery recycling is improving as the prices of lithium carbonate and other materials decline [33][34]